The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

The Idea Farm

Ready to grow your wealth through smarter investing decisions? With The Meb Faber Show, bestselling author, entrepreneur, and investment fund manager, Meb Faber, brings you insights on today’s markets and the art of investing. Featuring some of the top investment professionals in the world as his guests, Meb will help you interpret global equity, bond, and commodity markets just like the pros. Whether it’s smart beta, trend following, value investing, or any other timely market topic, each week you’ll hear real market wisdom from the smartest minds in investing today. Better investing starts here. For more information on Meb, please visit MebFaber.com. For more on Cambria Investment Management, visit CambriaInvestments.com.

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710 episodes
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Episodes710

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May 30, 2018 · 52 min
Radio Show: What’s More Important – Savings or Returns… What Meb’s Doing with U.S. Bonds… and Listener Q&A | #108
Episode 108 has a radio show format. In this one, we cover some of Meb’s Tweets of the Week and various write-in questions. After giving us the overview of his upcoming travel, Meb shares his thoughts on our recent episode with James Montier. It...
May 23, 2018 · 58 min
#107 - James Montier - “There Really Is A Serious Challenge to Try to Put Together an Investment Portfolio That’s Going to Generate Half-Decent Returns On A Forward-Looking Basis"
In Episode 107 we welcome the great James Montier. The chat starts on the topic of James’ questionable sartorial choices. He tells us he’s “always been a fan of dressing badly.” But the guys quickly jump in with Meb noting how James has generally been seeing the world as expensive over the last few years. Has anything changed today? James tells us no; by in large, we’re still trapped in this world where, frankly, you’re reduced to this game of “picking the tallest dwarf.” In general, every asset is expensive compared to normal. He summarizes, telling us “there really is a serious challenge to try to put together an investment portfolio that’s going to generate half-decent returns on a forward-looking basis.” Meb digs into, focusing on James’ framework for thinking about valuation, specifically, as a process. James starts from accounting identities. There are essentially four ways you get paid for owning an equity: a change in valuation, a change in profitability, some growth, and some yield. James fleshes out the details for us, discussing time-horizons of these identities. One of the takeaways is that we’re looking at pretty miserable returns for U.S. equities. James notes that we now have the second highest CAPE reading ever. Or you could look at the median price of the average stock – the price-to-sales ratio has never been higher. Overall, the point is to look at many valuation metrics and triangulate, so to speak. When you do, they’re all pretty much saying the same thing. James finishes by telling us that from his perspective, U.S. equities appear obscenely expensive. Meb takes the counter position, asking if there’s any good argument for this elevated market. Is there any explanation that would justify the high values and continued investment? James spends much time performing this exact exercise, looking for holes. He tells us that most people point toward “low interest rates” as a reason why this valuation is justified. But James takes issue with this. From a dividend discount model perspective, James doesn’t think the discount rate and the growth rate are independent. He suggests growth will be lower along with lower rates. He goes on to discuss various permutations of PE and other models, noting that there’s no historical relationship between the Shiller PE and interest rates. Meb comments how so many famous investors echo “low rates allow valuations to be high.” But this wasn’t the case in Japan. Meb then steers the conversation toward advisors who agree that U.S. stocks are expensive yet remain invested. Why? What follows is a great discussion about what James calls the “Cynical Bubble.” People know they shouldn’t be investing because U.S. stocks are expensive, but investors feel they must invest. If you believe you can stay in this market and sell out before it turns, you’re playing the greater fool game. James tells us about a game involving expectations – it’s a fun part of the show you’ll want to listen to, with the takeaway being how hard it is to be one step ahead of everyone else. Next, Meb brings up “process” as James has written much about it. James tells us that process is key. Professional athletes don’t focus on winning – they focus on process, which is the only thing they can control. This is a great part of the interview which delves into process details, behavioral biases, how to challenge your own views, and far more. James concludes saying “Process is vitally important because it’s the one thing an investor can control, and really help them admit that their own worst enemy might be themselves.” There’s plenty more in this great episode: James’s answer to whether we’re in a bubble, and if so, what type… market myths that people get wrong involving government debt… and of course, James’ most memorable trade. This one was a loser that got halved…then halved again…then again…then again… How did James get it so wrong? Find out in Episode 107. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 16, 2018 · 1 hr 9 min
Brian Singer - “We Don’t Know What Will Trigger the Decline, but When It Happens, Our Fear Is That It’s Sharper and Deeper Than Investors Would Otherwise Expect" | #106
In Episode 106 we welcome market vet, Brian Singer. Meb dives right now, asking Brian for his general approach to the markets. Brian tells us it’s fundamental in nature. They look at about 100 different asset markets, trading the broad markets...
May 9, 2018 · 55 min
Olivia Judson - “Life Has Transformed the Planet, Which Has Gone On to Alter the Future Course of Life" | #105
Episode 105 is a wholly unique show. In this episode, we depart from traditional investment themes, and instead, bring you an episode featuring Meb’s second professional love, biology. Specifically, we welcome the renowned evolutionary biologist and...
May 2, 2018 · 1 hr 6 min
Ken Fisher - “If You’re Worried About What Things Are Going to Be Worth Next Week…You’re Going to Make Yourself Way Poorer 20 Years from Now" | #104
In Episode 104, we welcome the legendary, Ken Fisher. Meb starts with a quick word of congratulations to Ken, as his firm just passed $100B in assets under management. The guys then discuss Ken’s interest in fishing with a bow and arrow, which...
Apr 25, 2018 · 24 min
The Asset Allocation Pyramid | #103
Episode 103 is a solo-Meb show. We just finished a short paper that references the old nutritional “Food Pyramid” published by the FDA a couple decades ago. Given what we’ve learned about health-conscious eating in the years since, that old...
Apr 18, 2018 · 1 hr 8 min
Radio Show: The "Stay Rich" Portfolio... A Senator Wants to Ban Share Repurchases... and Listener Q&A | #102
EP.102 - Radio Show
Apr 11, 2018 · 1 hr 27 min
Paul Merriman - “The People That Have Come Out Ahead Are the People Who Have Put Their Trust in the System Over the Long-Term" | #101
Paul Merriman
Apr 4, 2018 · 55 min
Elroy Dimson - “High Valuations Don't Necessarily Mean That We're Going to See Asset Prices Collapse" | #100
EP.100 – Elroy Dimson
Mar 28, 2018 · 57 min
Radio Show: Meb's Bullish on Emerging Markets... Strategies for Limited 401K Options... and Listener Q&A | #99
EP.99 Radio Show
Mar 21, 2018 · 53 min
Ed Yardeni - “We've Got Good Growth with Low Inflation and That's a Very Good Environment for Stocks and Okay Environment for Bonds" | #98
EP.98 - Ed Yardeni
Mar 14, 2018 · 1 hr 8 min
Phil Nadel - “If You Try to Pick Winners, and You Only Invest in a Handful of Companies, Odds Are You're Going to Lose Your Money" | #97
EP.97 - Phil Nadel
Mar 7, 2018 · 51 min
Craig Leupold & Jim Sullivan - “From a Commercial Property Standpoint, We See Values Drifting Sideways Over the Next 12 Months" | #96
RP.96 - Green St
Feb 28, 2018 · 1 hr 13 min
Radio Show: The Short-Vol Trade Blows Up... Meb's Rare Coin Purchases... and Listener Q&A | #95
EP.95 - Radio Show
Feb 21, 2018 · 51 min
Michelle Leder - “There Are Some Companies That We Know Are Sort of Bad Eggs" | #94
EP.94 - Michelle Leder
Feb 14, 2018 · 53 min
John Reese - “There Is No Strategy That Outperformed the Stock Market Every Single Year" | #93
EP.93 - John Reese
Feb 7, 2018 · 53 min
Andrew Tobias - “There Are Just A Few Things You Really Need to Know About Investing, and They Don't Ever Change" | #92
EP.92 - Andrew Tobias
Jan 31, 2018 · 2 min
ER Tribute
ER Tribute
Jan 24, 2018 · 51 min
Radio Show: Meb's Most Popular Tweet of All Time... Signs of the Top... Listener Q&A | #91
EP.91 - Radio Show
Jan 17, 2018 · 1 hr 3 min
Dan Rasmussen - “The Crown Jewel of the Alternative Universe is Private Equity" | #90
Ep.90 - Dan Rasmussen

The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

Radio Show: What’s More Important – Savings or Returns… What Meb’s Doing with U.S. Bonds… and Listener Q&A | #108

#107 - James Montier - “There Really Is A Serious Challenge to Try to Put Together an Investment Portfolio That’s Going to Generate Half-Decent Returns On A Forward-Looking Basis"

Brian Singer - “We Don’t Know What Will Trigger the Decline, but When It Happens, Our Fear Is That It’s Sharper and Deeper Than Investors Would Otherwise Expect" | #106

Olivia Judson - “Life Has Transformed the Planet, Which Has Gone On to Alter the Future Course of Life" | #105

Ken Fisher - “If You’re Worried About What Things Are Going to Be Worth Next Week…You’re Going to Make Yourself Way Poorer 20 Years from Now" | #104

The Asset Allocation Pyramid | #103

Radio Show: The "Stay Rich" Portfolio... A Senator Wants to Ban Share Repurchases... and Listener Q&A | #102

Paul Merriman - “The People That Have Come Out Ahead Are the People Who Have Put Their Trust in the System Over the Long-Term" | #101

Elroy Dimson - “High Valuations Don't Necessarily Mean That We're Going to See Asset Prices Collapse" | #100

Radio Show: Meb's Bullish on Emerging Markets... Strategies for Limited 401K Options... and Listener Q&A | #99

Ed Yardeni - “We've Got Good Growth with Low Inflation and That's a Very Good Environment for Stocks and Okay Environment for Bonds" | #98

Phil Nadel - “If You Try to Pick Winners, and You Only Invest in a Handful of Companies, Odds Are You're Going to Lose Your Money" | #97

Craig Leupold & Jim Sullivan - “From a Commercial Property Standpoint, We See Values Drifting Sideways Over the Next 12 Months" | #96

Radio Show: The Short-Vol Trade Blows Up... Meb's Rare Coin Purchases... and Listener Q&A | #95

Michelle Leder - “There Are Some Companies That We Know Are Sort of Bad Eggs" | #94

John Reese - “There Is No Strategy That Outperformed the Stock Market Every Single Year" | #93

Andrew Tobias - “There Are Just A Few Things You Really Need to Know About Investing, and They Don't Ever Change" | #92

ER Tribute

Radio Show: Meb's Most Popular Tweet of All Time... Signs of the Top... Listener Q&A | #91

Dan Rasmussen - “The Crown Jewel of the Alternative Universe is Private Equity" | #90