The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

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#424
Today · 33 min
#424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming
In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris calls Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a “pump and dump.” He explains why the GSEs won’t be released during Trump’s term and lays out his own fix: buy back the public common shares and leave the U.S. as the sole shareholder. He breaks down Auction.com data showing foreclosure auctions up 25% from a year ago as COVID-era protections end and housing shifts to a buyer’s market, and he shares his advice for sellers: price to sell. Whalen also covers REIT earnings, United Wholesale Mortgage’s strategy shift and Annaly’s return to book value. He explains why he’s less bullish than his friend Ralph on 10-year Treasuries near 5%, and whether the Fed will hike or hold at next week’s meeting. He says he’s long energy, adding to gold on weakness and cautious on financials as credit problems surface. He closes with the risk he thinks nobody is watching closely enough: an unexpected turn in the Russia-Ukraine war. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome to The Wrap 1:04 Bessent, Fannie and Freddie, and the “pump and dump” 3:48 Whalen’s fix: the U.S. as sole shareholder 5:08 Why “privatization” without control is a fraud 7:48 Foreclosure auctions up 25% 09:45 Is there a credit problem in housing? 10:56 Advice for sellers: price to sell 13:08 REIT earnings and UWM’s new strategy 14:19 Annaly back to book value 15:42 The case for 10-year Treasuries 19:14 Why Whalen isn’t as bullish on bonds 20:16 Bonds vs. gold vs. cash 22:06 October FOMC: hike or hold? 23:31 Natural gas down, diesel still high 24:59 Positioning: energy, gold and caution on financials 26:43 How income investing works 28:41 The biggest risk nobody’s talking about 32:00 What to watch next week The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
#423
Thursday · 1 hr 4 min
#423 Jordi Visser: Why the AI Bears Are Wrong — and the One Asset He’d Bet On Right Now
Long-time macro investor Jordi Visser, founder of Visser Labs, makes his in-studio debut with a bold message: the only macro force that matters right now is artificial intelligence. He explains why the economy has become far less rate-sensitive since the iPhone launched in 2007, and why Anthropic and OpenAI’s leap from $30 billion to roughly $170 billion in combined annual recurring revenue marks the start of agentic commerce, with personal AI agents managing more of our lives. He lays out his “bank-pocalypse” thesis, where agents and crypto compress bank valuations by moving money to better yields instantly. He also argues that many veteran macro voices are wrong about AI because they don’t use it. Visser traces his own shift from perma-bear to tech optimist, from closing out his book before Lehman in 2008 to a life-changing trip to Silicon Valley’s Singularity University. He makes the bull case for agentic compute, names hacking and government pushback as the biggest risks, and closes with his most contrarian call: crypto, which he sees as a 100-to-1 long shot that could be the best-performing asset of the next year even if the S&P goes nowhere. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: X: https://x.com/jvisserlabs YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@JordiVisserlabs Website: https://ai.22vresearch.com/ Substack: substack.com/@visserlabs Timestamps: 0:00 Preview: the beginning of agentic commerce 0:42 Welcome Jordi Visser 1:15 The only macro that matters: AI 4:14 Why the old playbook broke after 2007 6:44 AI’s iPhone moment: personal agents arrive 10:07 How big is agentic commerce? 10:36 Two economies: AI-native vs. enterprise 12:28 The “bank-pocalypse” thesis 14:01 An agentic run on the banks 17:38 What a personal AI agent does for you 18:56 The generational divide on AI 24:50 2008: closing out before Lehman 26:38 From perma-bear to “no more recessions” 28:26 Silicon Valley and the singularity 31:04 What he tells his kids about AI 32:31 Why Bitcoin is the purest AI trade 35:43 All moats are disappearing 37:37 Why AI is so emotional for people 41:08 Earnings up 30%, jobs at zero 43:08 “AI victim status” and the doom narrative 45:38 Climbing the ladder at Morgan Stanley 48:08 Lifelong learning and longevity 50:00 The bull case: agentic compute 52:30 Is the AI debt a problem? 55:00 The biggest risks: hacking and government pushback 58:44 His contrarian call for next year: crypto 1:02:27 Why the S&P could be flat a year from now 1:03:27 The Peter Lynch lesson and a 100-to-1 long shot The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
#422
Tuesday · 1 hr 14 min
#422 David Rosenberg: The Fed Is Going to Trip, Recession Odds Now Above 50%
David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research and author of Bear in the Bull Ring, says he has never seen so many imbalances in the economy and markets in his 40-year career. He argues we’re in an AI-driven bubble, now in “extra innings.” Ten stocks make up over 40% of market cap while the median stock is down nearly 20%. The Shiller CAPE has topped 40 and the equity risk premium has turned negative. Beneath roughly 2% GDP growth, he sees an economy held up by AI capex, a falling savings rate and stock-market wealth effects, while hiring stalls and real incomes shrink. Rosenberg warns that Kevin Warsh’s Fed risks a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock with a flat yield curve. He also flags fading fiscal stimulus, midterm gridlock and canceled data center projects as headwinds that put recession odds above 50-50 for 2027. His prescription is to de-risk without going to zero equities: shift toward Treasuries (two-year and 10-year notes), defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare and REITs, gold, and some cash, so you’re one of the “strong hands” when the cycle turns. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Bear-Bullring-Independent-Thinking-Protects Website: https://rosenbergresearch.com/ X: https://x.com/EconguyRosie Timestamps: 0:00 Intro: Protect your capital 0:21 Welcome David Rosenberg 1:36 Most imbalances in 40 years: a narrow market & fragile economy 6:57 What’s propping up the economy: AI spending & the wealth effect 10:23 Market call: CAPE above 40 & a negative equity risk premium 13:46 Why nobody calls it a bubble until it bursts 18:29 Don’t extrapolate: lessons from oil in 2008 23:17 Fed chasing headline inflation & recession odds 26:09 Is Warsh’s Fed dangerous? 31:32 Four supply shocks & where tariff inflation went 36:09 Labor market weaker than perceived 37:51 Will the Fed be forced to cut? The rookie Fed chair pattern 41:49 Greenspan, 1987 & testing a new Fed chair 42:40 Midterms, fiscal gridlock & a growth slowdown 45:47 AI backlash & data center cancellations 50:33 2001 recession, valuations & savings rate risk 53:42 Where to be on the Treasury curve 54:48 Bonds under-owned & boomers’ 55% stock exposure 1:00:56 Recession vs. growth slowdown 1:01:59 AI credit cracks: Oracle & CoreWeave 1:04:29 Gold outlook & why Treasuries 1:09:35 Book: Bear in the Bull Ring & independent thinking The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
#421
October 17 · 34 min
#421 Chris Whalen: Double-Digit Inflation, Falling Home Prices & a Fed Forced to Hike
In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Julia and Chris start with President Trump’s $5,000 cash dividend promise, which Whalen calls “bread and circuses,” and why affordability, driven by gasoline and diesel prices tied to the war with Iran, could deliver a 50-seat House swing to Democrats. Whalen says we’re already on a double-digit inflation path, points to September’s PPI as the highest since late 2022, and argues the Fed may be forced to hike before the midterms, possibly over Chairman Warsh’s objection. Fresh from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Chicago, he shares why industry insiders like Stan Middleman expect home prices to soften 5–10% over the next three years, how construction costs are putting a floor under prices, and why layoffs are hitting mortgage lenders and realtors. He also covers United Wholesale Mortgage, bank earnings (JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s record $1.5 billion OCC fine), and why he sees the AI trade as circular finance heading for a reset. They close with viewer questions on banks holding low-coupon COVID-era mortgages and the outlook for Annaly. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome back 00:43 Trump’s $5,000 dividend promise: “bread and circuses” 02:54 Could Democrats see a 50-seat House swing? 03:16 Affordability as the top issue: gas, diesel and the Iran war 07:16 Are we on a double-digit inflation path? 08:28 Fed hike ahead? Yellen says “transitory” again 09:44 Demand destruction, fertilizer and food prices 11:31 Takeaways from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference 13:33 Stan Middleman’s outlook: smaller price reset than expected 15:24 Construction costs and replacement value as a price floor 17:13 Will the Fed hike before the midterms? Warsh, Lisa Cook and the Supreme Court 18:57 The mood in mortgage: layoffs and a tougher 2027 20:36 Is there a bull case for United Wholesale Mortgage? 21:58 Bank earnings: JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s $1.5B fine 24:36 The AI reset and circular finance 26:59 Viewer question: banks holding low-rate COVID mortgages 29:55 Viewer question: the outlook for Annaly 31:34 What Whalen is watching next The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
#420
October 15 · 42 min
#420 Larry McDonald: The Market Has Already Crashed. The Index Just Hasn’t Noticed
New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to explain why he believes the market’s surface strength hides serious stress underneath. He points to cracks in AI data center financing: canceled data center IPOs, collapsing CoreWeave bond prices, and a surge in convertible bond issuance from neoclouds, which he calls the “last saloon” warning sign last seen in 1999 and 2021. With consumers hit by higher rates, soaring diesel and jet fuel costs, and iconic brands like Nike, Home Depot and McDonald’s down sharply, McDonald argues the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle and that smart money now expects three rate cuts before three hikes. He describes an internal market crash masked by passive flows into mega-cap tech, explains the year-end “convergence trade,” and makes his case for why gold could run from $4,000 to $6,500 and why silver may be one of the best trades of the next 12 months Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/ Timestamps: 0:00 Preview: the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle 0:19 Welcome Larry McDonald 1:20 Learning from mentors and “cage matches” 2:06 Why AI data center financing is breaking down 4:53 Convertible bonds: the “last saloon” 8:31 The ConvertBond.com story 9:09 Credit warnings: canceled IPOs, CCCs and leveraged loans 11:15 The million-dollar bet: three hikes or three cuts? 11:49 The consumer takes four or five left hooks 15:13 Why the Fed is faking its hiking cycle 16:28 Record highs, but an internal market crash 21:02 Passive investing and the convergence trade 23:19 What could trigger the convergence: AI capex and the midterms 24:43 The case for gold and silver 27:28 Silver, solar and the rotation out of tech The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
#419
October 10 · 37 min
#419 Chris Whalen: Mortgage Funeral, No Bond Rally & the Deficit Washington Won’t Talk About
In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris joins Julia La Roche to break down why affordability, the economy and the Iran war have put Republicans on the defensive, and why a Democratic Congress could mean two years of investigations and a tougher regulatory climate for markets. Ahead of the Mortgage Bankers Association annual in Chicago, Chris says the mortgage business is facing a “funeral,” with volumes and profits down, headcount still bloated from COVID, and plenty of firms quietly for sale. He explains why inflation and soaring construction costs are keeping home prices supported despite 7%+ mortgage rates, and why he’s pushing back on Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call. In Chris’s view, the federal deficit nobody in Washington or at the Fed wants to discuss is the biggest force behind higher long-term yields. He also covers the narrow, AI-driven stock market, stalled bank stocks, and viewer questions on capital gains taxes, home prices and whether energy stocks still make sense if the Iran war ends. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro 00:49 – Midterms less than a month out: how Trump has hurt GOP chances 03:11 – Affordability is still the No. 1 issue 04:33 – MBA Annual in Chicago: firms quietly up for sale 07:35 – How much downside is left in housing if rates hold? 09:06 – Replacement cost vs. market value, and why builders are pulling back 10:30 – Housing outlook: still a seller’s market 11:59 – Why Chris disagrees with Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call 14:01 – What’s really pushing the 10-year higher: the Treasury buyback misstep 15:42 – Why the Fed won’t talk about the deficit 18:33 – Are we headed for a debt reset or “Jubilee”? 19:40 – Record S&P highs vs. AI bubble fears 23:05 – Why financials are “dead in the water” 24:26 – The mortgage industry “funeral”: downsizing and consolidation 26:27 – Viewer Q: Where are mortgage rates and home prices headed? 28:55 – Viewer Q: Should Congress hike capital gains taxes? 30:50 – Viewer Q: Should you wait to buy energy until the Iran war ends? 33:58 – What Chris is watching next week The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
#418
October 8 · 34 min
#418 Ray Dalio on the Risky Period for Investors, Bubble Warnings, and a Coming Debt Squeeze
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins The Julia La Roche Show for a special episode featuring their fireside chat from the Greenwich Economic Forum. Dalio explains the five forces he sees driving today's world: the debt cycle, internal political conflict, the breakdown of the post-1945 geopolitical order, acts of nature, and technology, especially AI. He says rising bond yields reflect a basic supply-and-demand problem. Washington spends about $7 trillion a year but takes in about $5 trillion, and foreign buyers like China and Japan are pulling back. He warns that a debt "heart attack" is likely within the next two years. He calls the period after the midterms and through 2028 especially risky, and says markets are in a bubble by his own indicators, comparing today to the tech boom before 1929. Dalio also discusses why he recommends 5–15% in gold, why he holds only about 1% in Bitcoin, and where he sees opportunity: companies being transformed by AI, ASEAN countries, Singapore, the UAE, and inflation-indexed bonds with real yields near 3%. He closes with the three things that make a country successful. A special thank you to the Greenwich Economic Forum for having me as a moderator! Visit https://www.thegeforum.com/ Thank you to The Julia La Roche Show sponsors: Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Website: https://www.principles.com/ X: https://x.com/RayDalio LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raydalio/ Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome + Greenwich Economic Forum 1:03 Dalio's five forces, and the lesson of Nixon in 1971 6:20 Acts of nature, a super El Niño, and AI as a world-changing force 7:54 Is the U.S. moving from Stage 5 to Stage 6? 9:15 Why bond yields are rising: supply, demand, and $2T deficits 12:38 Is a debt "heart attack" coming? Dalio's timeline 16:18 Midterms, internal conflict, and weak expected stock returns 17:41 Are we in a bubble? Lessons from 1929 21:55 How Dalio is positioned: short debt, focus on diversification 22:30 Why gold belongs in a portfolio (5–15%) 24:35 Bitcoin: why Dalio holds only about 1% 25:47 Where to diversify: AI adopters, ASEAN, Singapore, UAE, Europe, TIPS 29:00 How the cycle plays out, and how to prepare 31:25 What makes a country successful? Education, civility, and avoiding conflict 33:54 Closing The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
#417
October 6 · 57 min
#417 Nick Nemeth: The Biggest Turn in My Lifetime, Why Credit Contagion Could Hit Everything
Is private credit the next 2008? Nick Nemeth, author and publisher of Mispriced Assets, joins Julia La Roche to explain why he sees systemic risk building in private credit, and why the real danger may sit inside life insurers' $10 trillion balance sheets. Nick explains how Dodd-Frank pushed risk out of the banks and into asset-manager-owned insurers like Athene. He says defaults are already running above 2008 levels, AAA-rated CLOs may not be as safe as advertised, and opaque Level 3 marks and 20–30x leverage could hide big losses. He also covers what this means for annuity holders, why regulators are falling short, his public fight over Cliffwater, how contagion could spread through reinsurance, and whether the next bailout could be big enough without breaking the dollar. He ends with bold 12-month predictions, including AAA CLO defaults, an insurance industry shakeout, and Kevin Warsh's first real test at the Fed. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Substack: https://mispricedassets.substack.com/ X: https://x.com/NickNemo17 Timestamps: 0:00 Credit stress before the Iran War 0:23 Welcome Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets 1:07 Macro view: a highly levered system 4:20 Money printing, inflation and the dollar 7:00 Private credit defaults are rising 10:23 Rising yields: defaults above 2008 levels 11:46 Why this is systemic, and how it compares to 2008 14:21 AAA CLOs "safer than the U.S. government"? 17:28 How we got here: Dodd-Frank pushed risk outside the banks 19:33 The insurance connection 26:30 Is your annuity safe? 27:18 Are regulators asleep? 29:25 Nick's biggest worry: bad marks and extreme leverage 34:42 Ratings agencies and the Cliffwater fight 39:33 The fix: mark-to-market and transparency 40:58 How credit contagion could spread 46:49 Why isn't the market down 20%? 50:52 12-month predictions: AAA CLO defaults and an insurance shakeout 53:09 Kevin Warsh's first test 55:23 Where to find Nick The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
#416
October 3 · 33 min
#416 Chris Whalen: Cheap Credit Is Over, K-Shaped Economy Becoming an L, Long Energy & Short Financials
The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a weak jobs report, with just 29,000 jobs added against expectations of 90,000, and long-term yields still elevated. Chris argues that rising bond yields reflect real inflation running in the mid-to-high single digits, well above the official numbers, and that the era of Fed-suppressed rates that began in 2008 is over. He expects the Fed to hold in October and possibly hike in November, and makes the case that Powell gave Trump nearly everything he wanted while incoming Chair Warsh is a hawk. Chris explains why $8–9 diesel and high replacement costs mean building more homes won't fix affordability, and why consumer credit stress is spreading upward. In his words, the K-shaped economy is "fast becoming an L." He reveals he's now short a couple of bank names, has rotated heavily into energy, and sees "long energy, short financials" as the trade for the next year or two. He also previews a tough midterm for Republicans, answers a viewer question on raising taxes, and discusses Judy Shelton's move to Treasury and his critique of the FASB's mortgage servicing rights proposal. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 0:00 – Welcome to The Wrap 0:18 – Jobs report misses badly, but yields stay high 1:28 – Is real inflation higher than the official stats? 2:51 – October FOMC: hike, hold, or wait for November? 4:20 – Powell gave Trump everything he wanted 6:24 – The easy environment is over: diesel and demand destruction 7:36 – Why building more homes won't fix affordability 9:28 – 7%+ mortgage rates and pain in the mortgage industry 10:40 – Portfolio rebalancing: selling financials, buying energy 11:43 – Cracks in consumer credit 13:01 – Restaurant and grocery margins (and the Publix real estate play) 14:45 – The K-shaped economy is becoming an L 17:11 – Why Chris is bearish on banks and shorting a few 18:34 – Is a recession ahead? 18:56 – Midterms, affordability, and Trump's lame-duck period 21:29 – Will Warsh give Trump what he wants? 23:36 – Viewer Q: Why not raise taxes to cut the deficit? 25:36 – Judy Shelton joins Treasury, and gold as money 27:01 – Chris critiques the FASB mortgage servicing rights proposal 29:08 – What Chris is watching: credit markets and Q3 earnings 31:18 – Why this year will be remembered as extraordinary 31:58 – Wrap-up The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
#415
October 1 · 54 min
#415 Dr. Mark Thornton: The Bond Market Is Flashing a Warning Nobody in Washington Wants to Fix
Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute, joins Julia to explain why the bond market is the pivotal story right now. The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are back above 5%, the national debt is over $40 trillion, and deficits are running at about $2 trillion a year. Thornton argues that this is wartime-level borrowing during supposedly good times. It crowds out private investment, weighs on wages, and widens the K-shaped divide between asset owners and everyone else. He explains why he thinks the Fed's recent hike won't be its last. In his view, Chairman Warsh and Secretary Bessent are managing the problem rather than solving it, and a market break or crisis could give the Fed cover to restart money printing. He describes the US as merging onto the "highway to hyperinflation," draws on historical cases from Revolutionary France to Weimar Germany, and closes with why he expects hard assets and commodities to outperform financial assets over the next decade. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links X: https://x.com/DrMarkThornton Free Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspx Mises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thornton Timestamps: 0:00 Intro: Why bonds are the big worry 0:43 Big picture: 10- and 30-year yields at 25-year highs 4:24 Are we in a new higher-rate regime? 11:48 Wartime deficits in "good times" 18:21 Who wins and who loses from easy money 20:25 Young people, housing, and the K-shaped economy 24:02 Food, energy, and the Persian Gulf conflict 28:10 Are we on the on-ramp to hyperinflation? 34:03 Fed rate hikes: more coming, and what's next 39:27 No consequences: the "magic checkbook" 47:28 How to protect yourself: hard assets 51:28 Where to find Dr. Thornton's work
#445
September 29 · 56 min
#414 Andy Constan: Markets Vulnerable to Disappointment, Cautious on Equities, and the 60/40 Strikes Back
Andy Constan, founder and CIO of Damped Spring and a veteran of Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show. He lays out his four-pillar macro framework and explains why he's turning cautious on equities despite a strong U.S. economy. His "pie theory" argues that the earnings AI companies are promising add up to more than the GDP available to deliver them. His "hamburger theory" warns that the massive borrowing needed to fund AI capex could stall if capital markets take a breather. With rates spiking for the seventh time since COVID, Constan doubts policymakers will engineer another V-top. He is currently short equities and max long long-term bonds, arguing that the much-maligned 60/40 portfolio is finally worth owning again. He also gives his early read on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, explains what it would really take to kill inflation, and argues that this cycle has no clean historical analog because it's fueled by public-sector rather than private-sector debt. He closes with the story of analyzing every trade from the 1987 crash on the Brady Commission at age 23, and his core advice: own a well-constructed portfolio at your risk target and hold it for life. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Website: https://dampedspring.com/ X: https://x.com/dampedspring Substack: https://substack.com/@dampedspring Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome Andy Constan 00:50 The four-pillar macro framework: growth, inflation, risk premium, positioning 02:42 Where we are: a strong economy and 66 months of above-target inflation 05:20 AI and the "pie theory": why there isn't enough GDP for the earnings expectations 12:22 The "hamburger theory": who pays for the AI capex boom 13:50 The seventh rate spike: will it V-top again? 17:43 Why he's getting cautious on stocks 18:13 How most people should invest: risk targets and always owning beta 21:43 Seeking alpha and his current positioning: short equities, max long bonds 24:21 "The 60/40 Strikes Back": why bonds make sense again 29:30 Bonds finally get the growth memo 31:58 Vulnerable to disappointment, not recession 32:52 His read on Kevin Warsh at the Fed 36:59 What it would actually take to kill inflation 38:45 Why the administration isn't fighting inflation 41:37 What's mispriced right now 43:35 Historical analogs: 0DTE options, portfolio insurance, and a public-debt-driven cycle 48:09 Serving on the Brady Commission after the 1987 crash at age 23 53:02 Parting thoughts and where to find Andy The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
#413
September 26 · 32 min
#413 Chris Whalen: Bonds, Gold, Energy, & the Coming Food Shock
Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche to break down a turbulent week in markets, as the 30-year Treasury hits its highest yield since 2004 and the 10-year breaks 5%. Chris argues that long rates have structurally reset, driven by Washington's credibility problem and the deficit rather than by the Fed, and he says 7%+ mortgage rates are the new normal as the housing industry heads into consolidation. He makes the case that the world is moving back toward a pre-WWI-style system with gold at its foundation, and explains why he's still long gold and silver despite short-term swings. Drawing on his conversation with John Dizard, Chris explains how damaged Persian Gulf refining capacity is squeezing diesel and sulfur supplies, sending fertilizer prices up eightfold and setting up a food price shock next year. He warns that double-digit inflation is already "baked into the cake," and predicts demand destruction could force the Fed to cut rates by 2027. In viewer questions, Chris covers trimming his Annaly position to buy energy stocks, means-testing Social Security, where housing prices are falling, and the risks private credit poses to life insurance and long-term care policies. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 0:00 – Preview 0:28 – Welcome to The Wrap 1:06 – 30-year yield hits 2004 high, 10-year breaks 5% 2:18 – 7%+ mortgage rates: the new normal 3:16 – What higher rates mean for housing and the mortgage industry 4:24 – Fed hike and whether Warsh has lost the long end 5:48 – Inflated and the University Club talk 6:34 – Gold and the return to a pre-WWI monetary system 7:40 – Sponsor: Monetary Metals 8:55 – Why rising yields haven't broken the gold thesis 9:49 – The dollar and a multilateral currency world 11:58 – October hike? The refinery capacity crisis 14:05 – Diesel, sulfur, and the fertilizer shock 15:40 – Double-digit inflation is "baked into the cake" 16:36 – The endgame: Iran and the Strait of Hormuz 18:22 – Demand destruction and why the Fed may cut 21:24 – Viewer Q: Selling Annaly, buying energy 23:36 – Viewer Q: Any shorts? 24:21 – Viewer Q: An oversight board for Congress and means-testing Social Security 27:42 – Why Social Security is invested in Treasuries 29:10 – Viewer Q: Will housing prices fall? 30:23 – Viewer Q: Private credit and long-term care policies 31:25 – Wrap-up The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
#412
September 24 · 49 min
#412 Michael Pento: 2027 Will Be a Very Difficult Year – Here's Why
Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche Show to warn that the U.S. faces what he calls a "triumvirate of bubbles" in equities, real estate, and credit, all inflated at once for the first time in history. He argues that years of persistent inflation, soaring national debt, foreign creditors stepping back from Treasuries, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade are pushing bond yields higher, and that rising rates will ultimately burst all three bubbles. For the first time since 2021, Pento gives a timeline: he expects 2027 to be a very difficult year as the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh hikes rates and slows balance sheet growth, putting it in direct conflict with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's efforts to hold down long-term yields. Pento explains why he reluctantly uses the word "depression," why the traditional 60/40 portfolio could fail retirees, and why he believes the Fed will eventually return to money printing, triggering a prolonged era of "hyperstagflation." He also shares how he's positioned today, still net long, with short-term Treasuries, dividend payers, and precious metals, while watching credit markets closely because "the clock is ticking." Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento 0:00 Cold open: "With reluctance, depression" 0:19 Welcome back, Michael Pento 0:59 The macro picture: 5+ years of inflation crushing consumers 4:16 Insolvency, foreign creditors & the yen carry trade unwind 8:15 Sponsor: Monetary Metals 10:06 The "triumvirate of bubbles": stocks, real estate & credit 14:40 Not a perma-bear: 35 years in the business 15:18 Pento's first timeline since 2021: why 2027 20:08 The forgotten middle class & why the pain is necessary 21:39 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals 23:12 Warsh vs. Bessent: are the Fed and Treasury at odds? 24:43 Who wins? "The free market always wins" 25:43 Why he's calling it a depression, not a recession 28:26 Retirees beware: the danger of the 60/40 portfolio 33:02 Where to hide in "hyperstagflation" 34:48 How Pento is positioned right now (still net long) 39:19 Is there hope on the other side? 42:32 The biggest risk nobody's watching: long-term rates 43:33 Record debt, private credit & "this is not normal" 46:28 How to follow Michael Pento
#411
September 22 · 40 min
#411 George Noble: Market Is Entering a Dangerous Phase
George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, joins Julia in studio as the 10-year Treasury yield breaks 5% and the Fed hikes rates. George says his call is "rotation, not recession." He's passionately bearish on tech and consumer discretionary and wildly bullish on gold and energy, which have been on fire this year. He argues the bond market is driving everything: runaway deficits and the AI capex boom are pushing up the global cost of capital. In his view, today's rates aren't abnormal; the long era of depressed rates was. He gives a pointed critique of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's attempts to suppress yields and explains why the Fed follows the market rather than leading it. He also makes the case that the real bubble is in earnings, not valuations. The conversation covers private credit, the housing correction, $40 trillion in debt, and the money illusion of pricing assets in dollars rather than gold. George explains why he thinks rates and oil keep rising until the market breaks, and why the risk-reward favors gold, energy, and cash over the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/ X: https://x.com/gnoble79 Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenoble Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:12 Big picture: "weeks where decades happen" as the 10-year breaks 5% 2:23 "R is for rotation, not recession" 5:18 How high can rates go? Why the ultra-low-rate era was the abnormal one 8:28 Why we're in a dangerous phase of the market 11:46 Why rotation comes before recession: deficits are force-feeding the economy 12:57 Passionately bearish on consumer, wildly bullish on gold and energy 13:31 George's critique of Scott Bessent, plus lessons from Soros vs. the Bank of England 16:45 "I am the house": Bessent, hubris, and Mr. Market 20:18 $40 trillion in debt and "banana republic" behavior 21:48 Midterm elections and what a sweep could mean for markets 22:20 The ticking clock in private credit and private equity 23:17 The Fed's rate hike: Warsh, word salad, and why the Fed follows the market 28:07 The real bubble isn't valuations, it's earnings 30:25 The housing correction is already happening 31:11 Money illusion: the S&P and bonds priced in gold, not "American pesos" 35:35 What "the market breaks" actually looks like 38:44 How George is positioned: gold, energy, cash, and picking stocks 39:17 Closing thoughts
#410
September 19 · 34 min
#410 Chris Whalen: Age of Uncertainty - Falling Home Prices, Cracks in Private Credit, & Sidelined Fed
Chris Whalen returns after the FOMC's 25-basis-point hike and calls it what he wrote in his notes: lame. His argument is that the Fed has become the tail and the Treasury the dog — with a $2 trillion deficit running above 6% of GDP, monetary policy is close to irrelevant, and Kevin Warsh will eventually be forced back into QE and debt monetization whether he wants it or not. That leaves Congress, which Whalen says has stopped doing the one job only it can do, prompting a provocative exchange with Julia about whether a fiscal crisis ends with a manager running the purse the way FDR ran 1933. From there the conversation turns to where the damage shows up: housing, where more than half of American homes fell in price over the past year and Whalen expects a real correction into 2028; private credit and insurance, where he agrees with Jeffrey Gundlach that private credit is the fuse and the insurers are the bomb, and warns annuity holders at the wrong carriers may not be made whole; and energy, where the Houthis' grip on the Red Sea may force the refining industry to redeploy away from the Persian Gulf entirely. He also walks through his own portfolio — Schwab, Flagstar, Annaly, AGNC, and steady additions to gold and silver — explains why he holds no T-bills, and gives his take on the SEC's innovation exemption, calling crypto tokens a polite form of fraud better regulated by state gaming commissions. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 – Welcome back 1:03 – "The Fed had to do something or be irrelevant" 5:38 – Is the FOMC even relevant anymore? 5:57 – Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail 6:20 – The Fed will be forced to monetize the debt 6:48 – A dysfunctional Congress 9:39 – The age of uncertainty 10:00 – Half of American homes fell in price this year 11:12 – Misery on the Eights: the correction into 2028 11:24 – Gundlach: private credit is the fuse, insurance is the bomb 11:50 – How PE used insurers to compound too fast 13:28 – Why annuity holders are calling 14:02 – Duration matching and the part of the industry that works 15:28 – Energy 16:03 – Trump, the war he started, and no leadership 17:15 – Echoes of the 1970s — and Europe's winter 18:41 – Bank stocks are dead; deposit costs are rising again 20:34 – The AI trade 21:28 – Where do you put money with no clear narrative? 21:48 – Gold doesn't trade like a stock 22:20 – Chris on his own portfolio 23:06 – Schwab, Bank of America, and the low-hanging fruit nobody picks 24:52 – Crypto: the SEC's innovation exemption after Clarity failed 27:03 – Can Congress legislate at all after the midterms? 28:18 – Viewer Q: Does flattening change the Annaly call? 29:33 – Why Chris owns no T-bills 30:26 – What he's watching the rest of the year 31:37 – Close The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
#409
September 17 · 34 min
#409 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Is Hiking Into Recession, Consumers Tapped Out, & Credit Tightening
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and author of Fed Up, joins Julia La Roche to break down the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The statement first looked dovish, but markets reversed after Warsh's record-short 29-minute press conference hinted at more hikes. That sent the 10-year Treasury to 5.01%, its highest level since 2007. Danielle argues Warsh has broken his own "zero forward guidance" pledge and is "enamored with his narrative" of a Goldilocks economy. She points to a labor market already in recessionary territory, with long-term unemployed now outnumbering job leavers. She says core PCE inflation is on a steady path lower, while households face mounting strain from gas prices, utility bills, bankruptcies, and tightening credit. The two also discuss the K-shaped economy and why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may not be done acting on the bond market. Danielle explains why peak AI investment, propped up by hyperscaler accounting gains, is the biggest risk she sees. She closes on an optimistic note about the work ethic of today's college-age generation. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 0:40 Fed hikes 25 bps: the big-picture takeaway 1:22 Markets price in three more hikes after the press conference 4:21 Assessing Warsh so far: forward guidance despite his pledge 5:37 Fed projections: 2.5% core PCE, 4.1% unemployment 7:02 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals 8:26 Labor market already in recessionary territory 10:12 Warsh is "enamored with his narrative" 10:53 The household squeeze: gas, utilities, beef to chicken 11:47 Even the top of the K is losing confidence 12:19 AI was 100% of GDP growth, and real AI investment has turned 13:20 Payroll data quirks: the World Cup hiring surge 14:06 Sponsor: Monetary Metals 15:33 Trump's reaction: 10-year at 5.01%, stocks down 16:05 Scott Bessent isn't finished 17:04 Warsh gives Bessent the Heisman 17:41 10-year at a 19-year high, and the Fed was easing last time 18:14 What the Fed is getting wrong: August's one-off inflation blips 20:03 Core PCE is coming down, plus BEA methodology changes 20:56 Bankruptcy lawyers are making bank: record filings 22:23 Do rate hikes even work? Cash-out refis and credit tightening 23:29 The stock market isn't the economy: airlines and the top of the K 25:16 Is Warsh chasing the wrong monkey on his back? 25:47 Other worries: PE bankruptcies, rogue AI agents, socialism 27:22 Bernanke's 2% target and post-COVID stimulus 28:31 The risk keeping her up at night: peak AI investment 29:49 Hyperscaler accounting games and the "E" in P/E 31:40 What's making her optimistic 33:25 Wrap-up
#408
September 16 · 1 hr 2 min
#408 Jeffrey Gundlach: We've Crossed to the Hard Side of the Street
Legendary bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. He warns that the market has "crossed over to the hard side of the street." With the Shiller CAPE above 42, he says history points to negative real returns for the next decade. Cracks are already showing in AI-related credit, where junk bonds and bank loans have widened sharply while the rest of high yield holds up. Gundlach says he now wants out of the AI "epicenter" entirely. He walks through his current portfolio: equal-weight equities, a barbell of high-quality bonds and local-currency emerging market debt, gold, commodities, and short-duration "dry powder." He expects CPI to print above 4% as oil tops $100 and diesel hits $8 a gallon, and he predicts a 25 basis point hike from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. He also explains why 30-year TIPS won't protect investors from rising rates and why he's skeptical of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Operation Twist. He sees a dangerous web of private credit, arbitraged credit ratings, and offshore reinsurance, calling private credit the fuse and insurance companies the bomb. He urges annuity buyers to stick with mutual insurers and warns that bailout pressure will be intense when the AI and private markets reckoning arrives.Thank you to our partnersAugusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@DoubleLineCapitalWebsite: https://doubleline.com/Webcasts: https://doubleline.com/doubleline-webcasts/0:00 Intro 1:16 Shiller CAPE, a decade of negative real returns? 3:33 The mood turns: AI credit starts to crack 8:10 Gundlach Unlocked: his new portfolio with zero AI exposure 12:12 Gold, plus commodities and dry powder 17:25 Rising rates and the $40 trillion debt milestone 17:55 Operation Twist and the endgame for the debt 22:19 Oil above $100 and a near-empty Strategic Petroleum Reserve 25:12 Why CPI is headed above 4% and Warsh's 2% promise 28:54 The German Bund and GDP model for the 10-year 31:54 When he'd buy long bonds 35:27 Will Warsh hike? 38:31 Advice for Scott Bessent? 40:14 The Fed follows the 2-year 41:20 Dollar debasement and the 30-year TIPS myth 43:29 Why you can't trust credit ratings 46:27 Private credit is the fuse, insurers are the bomb 53:25 Peak optimism: this feels like 1999 and 2006 1:01:18 Final warning: the hard side of the street
#407
September 12 · 36 min
#407 Chris Whalen: $100 Oil, 5% Rates, and a Home Price Correction Coming for the Whole Country
The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a summer vacation with a blunt read on the fall ahead: affordability — fuel, housing, food — has already decided the midterms, and the Iran conflict plus the Russia-Ukraine war have created a shortage not just of crude but of refined products, with refinery maintenance season and the shift to heating oil set to push prices higher still. He calls $100 oil and a 5% 10-year Treasury the new normal, argues Scott Bessent's buyback strategy has failed, and expects a quarter-point hike next week while raising the more unsettling question: what happens if the Fed raises short rates and the long end goes up anyway? On gold, Whalen is still accumulating, sees $6,000–$7,000 only after a fiscal catalyst like a bad Treasury auction, and points to Shanghai's gold-linked clearing system and Russia's 100-ton sale to China as evidence of where physical demand really lives. He also answers viewer questions on the exodus at Fannie Mae, the flawed data behind credit scores, how to actually save in gold, why he owns only Flagstar and Schwab, and warns that Florida's home price correction is coming for the rest of the country next year. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 – Welcome back: summer's over, a lot to catch up on 0:50 – Energy prices and the midterms: decided at the pump? 1:13 – Affordability is the story: diesel, heating oil, Europe's supply crisis 2:51 – The $5,000 "Trump dividend" and buying votes 4:13 – What nobody in Washington will say about insolvency 5:00 – FDICIA, continuing resolutions, and a Congress that can't say no 6:34 – Oil near $100: does it get worse from here? 7:33 – Rates "going back to normal" after 15 years of Fed subsidy 9:24 – Calling 5% on the 10-year — and Bessent's failed buyback strategy 10:29 – Warsh rules out QE, spreads tighten anyway 11:57 – Why banks are suddenly buying multifamily 12:58 – Is 5% a stop along the way or the destination? 14:31 – What Chris expects from the Fed next week 15:06 – The big question: what if the Fed has lost the long end? 16:11 – What losing control of long rates would actually signal 17:24 – Gold with David Kotok, and why it's not a trading vehicle 18:28 – Tom McClellan on the oil–gold relationship (with a 16-month lag) 20:09 – A quiet year: banks, AI trade, and boring winners 21:17 – What takes gold from $4–5K to $6–7K 22:00 – Russia sells 100 tons of gold to China 22:53 – Is the dollar really in decline? CIPS, Shanghai, and sanctions 24:12 – How high can diesel and Brent go this winter? 25:30 – Iran, the Houthis, and the Red Sea 26:59 – Viewer Q: What's happening inside Fannie Mae? 28:30 – Pulte, VantageScore, and the bad-data problem in credit scoring 29:39 – Viewer Q: How do you actually save in gold? 30:45 – Florida home prices are falling — "Misery on the Eights" 31:31 – Viewer Q: The big money center banks 32:47 – Viewer Q: Book recommendations and the gold book 33:23 – Closing thoughts: an age of instability The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
#407
September 8 · 41 min
#407 Larry McDonald: The Bond Market's Biggest Contrarian Trade
New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to break down what he's hearing from the veteran investors in his network — and the shift he's watching in real time. Portfolio managers who spent two years as raging bulls have turned bearish on the financials and are quietly spending a slice of their gains on downside protection while volatility is cheap. McDonald walks through the mechanics of the data center financing boom: hundreds of billions in off-balance-sheet debt from the hyperscalers, the banks now holding that exposure, and the credit default swaps those same banks are buying on the Mag 7. He explains why he sees a late-2006 rhyme in private credit and the CCC market, why diesel prices could re-spark inflation over the next few CPI prints, and why the most crowded trade on Wall Street right now may be the bearish one on bonds. Plus: the "supernova" dynamic that turns a hot economy into a fast recession, why he's still long hard assets, and the one risk he thinks almost nobody is talking about. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/ 0:00 — Intro 1:18 — A million books sold, and what the ideas dinners reveal 3:07 — Where the smart money is shifting right now 4:39 — How investors are buying protection: CDS, puts, VIX ETFs 5:35 — Late cycle: data center financing and the Mag 7's cash burn 7:00 — Meta's $30B off-balance-sheet financing and what banks did next 8:22 — Why banks are buying CDS on the companies they lend to 9:42 — Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators: CCCs, LQD, private credit 11:00 — "You're manufacturing Bernie Madoffs": no business cycle, no cleansing 12:21 — Midterms, the Treasury, and the DSA risk to the long end 17:00 — Why inflation isn't as tame as it looks — diesel is the tell 18:56 — Scott Bessent vs. the "faculty lounge" Treasury 21:44 — The Google bond at 88, the Apple bond at 49 23:39 — Are there hidden SVBs out there? 25:55 — The contrarian trade: buying duration when everyone's bearish 27:42 — What the bond market is signaling 29:40 — Why the bad news is 80-90% priced in 31:49 — The supernova effect and how recessions actually start 33:06 — Hedging equities: puts on the financials at record price-to-book 34:30 — Biggest under-the-radar risk 36:00 — What he's still long: energy, coal, copper, gold miners 37:22 — Where to find the Bear Traps Report
#406
August 29 · 31 min
#406 Chris Whalen Answers Your Questions on Gold, the Fed, and Retirement Risk
In part two of the all-viewer-question edition of The Wrap, Chris Whalen and Julia tackle everything from gold confiscation to credit union safety. Chris argues that a 1933-style seizure is possible in a debt crisis, since heavy government borrowing effectively encumbers every asset in the country, and that offshore physical gold is the only real protection. He explains why rising gold prices pressure the Treasury and gradually erode the dollar's role as the world's medium of exchange, drawing parallels to the monetary fragmentation of post-Roman Europe that he's been researching for his upcoming book. Along the way he critiques Jerome Powell for extending QE long after credit spreads normalized in 2020, pushes back on fears of a boomer-driven market selloff, breaks down how Annaly Capital actually makes money, flags private-credit takeovers of insurance companies as a genuine risk to annuity holders, and shares his own portfolio split. He closes with thoughts on land value taxes, the likelihood of a US VAT, and life in Florida versus New York. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 - Cold open: "No democracy can have sound money" 0:25 - Welcome back — viewer questions only 1:31 - Could the government confiscate gold again like 1933? 4:50 - Inside Chris's new book on gold 6:37 - Gold price outlook: 2026, 2027, 2028 8:30 - Best ways to own metals without holding physical 9:27 - Why we ran surpluses from 1998-2001 10:30 - What Jerome Powell should have done differently 13:44 - Will retiring boomers crash the market? 15:42 - Equal-weight S&P funds at current valuations 16:04 - Nvidia financing its own customers: circular financing? 18:06 - Annaly (NLY) explained: leverage, servicing, and lending 20:51 - Common shares or preferred? 21:41 - Is the 60/40 portfolio dead? Chris's actual allocation 23:47 - Are credit unions safer than banks? 25:22 - Annuity owners: how to protect yourself from insolvency 27:07 - Land value taxes, wealth taxes, and the case for a VAT 28:37 - Florida vs. New York: an honest review 30:00 - Wrap-up and housekeeping The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

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