The Iran Breakdown with Mark Dubowitz

Iran After the Midterms: Trump Weakened? Tehran Emboldened — or Miscalculating? (feat. Behnam Ben Taleblu)

Trump has been dealt a major political blow in the midterms. Is Tehran preparing to take advantage? FDD’s Mark Dubowitz and Behnam Ben Taleblu examine how Iran’s rulers are interpreting the election results, whether the Islamic Republic sees an opportunity to challenge a weakened American president, and what Trump’s Iran strategy could look like over the next two years. They also explore the regime’s mounting vulnerabilities after three years of regional conflict, the perspectives of Iranians who oppose the Islamic Republic, and the fundamental question facing Washington and Tehran alike: Who has the upper hand—and who is running out of time?

Brink: Inside America's Confrontation with Iran

Four American presidents. One persistent enemy. And a confrontation that has brought the Middle East to war. Brett McGurk has spent more than two decades at the center of American Middle East policy, serving Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden. Now, in his new book, Brink, he takes readers inside some of the most consequential national security decisions of our time. In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, McGurk draws on his extraordinary firsthand experience to examine America’s long struggle with the Islamic Republic — from failed nuclear diplomacy and Iran’s network of terrorist proxies to October 7, failed negotiations with Tehran, President Biden’s defense of Israel against Iranian missile and drone attacks, and President Trump’s military confrontation to cripple Iranian nuclear and war-making capabilities. What did the Biden administration get right and wrong? Has Trump’s use of military force fundamentally changed the equation? Can Iran’s nuclear and regional ambitions be stopped? Is America winning? What are the differences between American and Israeli approaches to confronting the Iran threat? Did the Iran campaign help or hurt our efforts to deter China in a Taiwan crisis scenario. And after four presidencies, what has Washington still failed to understand about the regime in Tehran and the importance of American presence in the Middle East? An insider’s account of American power, presidential decision-making, and the future of the threat from the Islamic Republic.

• Transcript

The Iran Dilemma: A View from Tokyo and Jerusalem

Japan occupies a unique position: a close ally of the United States, a strong partner of Israel, and a longtime diplomatic interlocutor with Tehran. In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, Japan’s Ambassador to Israel, Yusuke Arai, offers a rare perspective on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the threats it poses to Israel, lessons from Japan’s experience with North Korea, and the limits of diplomacy and the importance of military deterrence. Ambassador Arai is a veteran diplomat with over 30 years of experience in foreign policy, national security, and intelligence. A former Director-General of Intelligence and Analysis at Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, he brings a distinctive security perspective shaped by his experience examining Iran and the Middle East from both Tokyo and Israel.

Inside The Cauldron: Iran, America, Israel, and the End of Khomeinism

To understand the war unfolding with Iran today — and where it could lead — you have to understand the history that brought the Middle East to this moment. In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, Mark Dubowitz sits down with acclaimed historian Simon Sebag Montefiore, author of The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East, to put today’s conflict with Iran in its deeper historical context. When did this war really begin — with October 7, the direct 2025 US-Israel-Iran confrontation, or the Islamic Revolution of 1979? Montefiore traces the forces that shaped the modern Middle East and examines how Khomeini’s revolution transformed Iran, political Islam, and the regional order. The conversation explores what the current war is actually about, how victory should be measured, and whether external pressure can break the Islamic Republic. Mark and Simon also look beyond the current regime: If the Islamic Republic eventually disappears, which parts of Iran’s regional ambitions disappear with it — and which are rooted more deeply in Iranian history, geography, and nationalism? Are we witnessing another violent turn in the Middle East — or the end of the revolutionary cycle that began with Khomeini in 1979? And if that era really is ending, what comes next?

• Transcript

In the War Room: The Inside Story of Israel’s Fight Against Hamas and the Iranian Axis (feat. Yonah Jeremy Bob & Elliot Kaufman)

Elliot Kaufman and Yonah Jeremy Bob are the co-authors of the new book, In the War Room: The Inside Story of Israel’s Fight Against Hamas and the Iranian Axis – an inside account of the decisions, debates, and personalities that shaped Israel’s multi-front war, from October 7 to Hezbollah and ultimately Iran. Elliot Kaufman is an editorial writer and member of The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board, where he focuses on Israel and Iran and has covered the war since October 7. Yonah Jeremy Bob is the senior military analyst at The Jerusalem Post and the author of several books, including Target Tehran. Their reporting draws on extensive access to senior military, intelligence, and political officials.

• Transcript

Iran’s Nightmare: No War, No Relief (feat. Miad Maleki)

The Islamic Republic may discover that surviving the war was the easy part. Its military has been mauled, its deterrence shattered, its proxies weakened, and now an already dysfunctional economy faces relentless pressure — with no victory to rally around and no economic rescue on the horizon. On the latest episode of The Iran Breakdown, host Mark Dubowitz is joined by FDD’s Miad Maleki, a former senior Treasury sanctions official, to explain why the regime’s greatest threat may no longer come from American bombers or Israeli jets, but from an economic crisis it cannot bomb, repress, or print its way out of.

After Iran: Is Erdogan’s Turkey the Middle East’s Next Great Threat? (feat. Steven A. Cook and Jonathan Schanzer)

For decades, Washington and Jerusalem worried about Iran dominating the Middle East. But as the Islamic Republic weakens, is Erdogan’s Turkey positioning itself to become the region’s next great revisionist power? Mark Dubowitz is joined by two Turkey and Middle East experts: Steven A. Cook, the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at FDD. They discuss Erdogan’s ambitions, Turkey’s growing confrontation with Israel in Syria, Ankara’s support for Hamas, its complicated relationship with Tehran, its future in NATO—and whether Turkey could eventually pursue nuclear weapons. The central question: As Iran declines, is Turkey the next big Islamist threat?

Energy Wars: America, Iran and the Battle of Hormuz (feat. Rich Goldberg)

In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, Mark Dubowitz sits down with FDD’s Rich Goldberg for a wide-ranging discussion on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, global energy markets and America’s growing energy dominance. Rich leads FDD’s Energy and National Security Program and served in the second Trump administration, where he helped establish the White House National Energy Dominance Council. During the first Trump administration, he served at the White House as director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction. A former Navy intelligence officer with experience on the Joint Staff and in Afghanistan, Rich also spent years on Capitol Hill, where he was a lead architect of sanctions against Iran. Iran sanctioned him in 2020 Mark and Rich examine the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the resilience and the risks in global energy markets, emerging workarounds to bypass the strait, America’s expanding energy power and China’s role in the equation. It’s a conversation about more than barrels and pipelines—it’s about energy, economics and military power, and the central question: Does Iran have Trump over a barrel—or is it the other way around? Relevant article: Tehran is losing its grip on Hormuz, and with it all its leverage

The Islamic Republic’s Revolutionary DNA (feat. Haviv Rettig Gur)

What makes the Islamic Republic of Iran different from a conventional regime seeking security, prosperity, and survival? Its ideological DNA fuses Maoist revolutionary thought, Frantz Fanon’s vision of anticolonial struggle and redemptive violence—channeled through Iranian intellectual Ali Shariati—and a revolutionary Shia theology of martyrdom, resistance, and struggle against oppression. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder and first Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, forged these currents into a revolutionary state whose legitimacy rests not simply on governing Iran, but on resisting an international order it considers fundamentally unjust. That helps explain the regime’s remarkable ability to turn military defeats, economic devastation, and mass suffering into narratives of resistance, sacrifice, and even victory. Haviv Rettig Gur—Middle East analyst at The Free Press, and host of Ask Haviv Anything—joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to unpack the ideological DNA of the Islamic Republic, why it has endured, and what its enemies still misunderstand about the regime they are fighting.

Subterranean Warfare: Can Pickaxe Mountain Be Destroyed? (feat. Yadin Soffer)

The next battlefield isn’t in the sky or at sea—it’s underground. The Islamic Republic, together with Hamas and Hezbollah, spent decades building a subterranean fortress: hundreds of miles of terror tunnels beneath Gaza and Lebanon, and deeply buried nuclear and missile facilities designed to survive even the most powerful airstrikes. At the center of that strategy is Pickaxe Mountain, where Tehran is constructing hardened underground infrastructure intended to shield its nuclear weapons program from U.S. and Israeli airpower. In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, host Mark Dubowitz sits down with Yadin Soffer, co-founder and CEO of Traysar, a startup developing autonomous systems for underground warfare. They explore how this emerging technology could detect, penetrate, and neutralize subterranean threats—and whether advances in underground warfare could change the strategic equation against deeply buried targets like Pickaxe Mountain.

• Transcript

Pickaxe Mountain: Iran’s “Unbustable” Nuclear Bunker? (feat. Andrea Stricker)

Iran isn’t dismantling its nuclear program—it’s burying it deeper underground. At the center of growing U.S. concern is Pickaxe Mountain, a massive underground complex that signals the regime has no intention of abandoning its nuclear ambitions. Buried deep beneath solid rock and heavily fortified, the facility may be the most challenging nuclear target the United States has ever confronted, raising difficult questions about whether it can be destroyed by conventional means. Andrea Stricker, deputy director and research fellow in FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program, joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to explain why Pickaxe Mountain matters, what makes it so difficult to neutralize, what military and non-military options remain, and which other parts of Iran’s nuclear program deserve urgent attention.

The End of the Ceasefire as We Know It? (feat. Rich Goldberg)

The United States has launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iran, hitting roughly 90 targets along the country's coastline, as tensions over the Strait of Hormuz threaten to unravel a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran. With diplomatic channels strained and the regime holding Hormuz hostage, the path back to de-escalation looks increasingly uncertain. To unpack what comes next, FDD Senior Advisor Richard Goldberg joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to break down the state of the ceasefire, the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington's shifting strategy.

Lebanon: More than "a Piece of the Puzzle" (feat. Carine Hajjar)

The Israel-Lebanon framework brokered by Secretary Rubio may be historic, but Hezbollah still hasn't disarmed. The deal ties Israeli withdrawal to the Lebanese army securing designated pilot zones — yet Hezbollah and its parliamentary allies have already rejected it outright. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Iran MOU threatens to undercut the whole effort, handing Tehran leverage over Israel's right to self-defense and potentially unlocking billions of dollars for the regime that arms Hezbollah in the first place. With Hezbollah the linchpin of Tehran's "axis of resistance," leaving Lebanon unaddressed is a danger that can't be ignored. Carine Hajjar — opinion journalist at The Washington Post and Steamboat Institute fellow with deep roots in Lebanon — joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to ask whether this is Lebanon's real chance to break free of Iran's grip, or another false dawn.

What Iranians Think About the US-Iran Deal (feat. Medhi Parpanchi)

The 60-day MOU between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States may dominate headlines, but for 90 million Iranians it changes nothing. The agreement contains no mention of the Iranian people — who only months ago faced a brutal massacre by the regime of an estimated 40,000 protesters. Deal or no deal, the Iranian people face water shortages, power outages, staggering inflation, frozen exports, and throttled internet as a daily reality. Meanwhile, a sanctions waiver allows the IRGC to sell oil and receive payment directly, financing the very institution that oversees their repression. With the naval blockade lifted and maximum pressure easing, the Islamic Republic is now turning its full attention to the last threat it faces: the millions of Iranians who want it gone. Medhi Parpanchi — native Iranian and Persian-language journalist at Iran International — joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to ask the question Washington isn't: what does this mean for Iranians?

Breaking Down the US-Iran MOU (feat. Robert Greenway)

President Trump has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran, opening a 60-day window to negotiate a final deal. The debate is fierce: does the US-Iran MOU go far enough? Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, regional proxies, and frozen assets all remain unresolved — leaving critical questions about what any final agreement may actually deliver. Robert Greenway — military veteran, diplomat, and a key architect of the Abraham Accords — joins Mark Dubowitz on The Iran Breakdown to cut through the noise. They examine the MOU's terms, the long arc of Trump's maximum pressure campaign, and what happens if Tehran doesn't comply.

What Does Winning In Iran Look Like? (feat. Marc Thiessen)

The clock is ticking on the Islamic Republic — but what does finishing the job actually look like? With the regime battered, broken, and the pressure campaign at a critical inflection point, the U.S. faces a defining choice: double down or negotiate from strength? What tools remain in Washington's arsenal, and how does the Trump administration turn military and economic pressure into lasting political change? Mark Dubowitz is joined by Marc Thiessen, American Enterprise Institute fellow, former chief speechwriter for President George W. Bush, and Washington Post columnist, to map out the next phase of the U.S. pressure campaign, the strategic choices that will define the endgame, and what it will take to finally free the Iranian people from over four decades of brutal rule by the Islamic Regime.

Strait Victory: Bypassing Iran's Hormuz Chokepoint (feat. Richard Goldberg)

The Islamic Republic played one of the few cards it had left: the Strait of Hormuz. How did military planners prepare for this moment? Was a closure inevitable? If the U.S. and Israel had not confronted the Islamic Republic, where would we be today? And is Hormuz a diminishing weapon of leverage in the hands of Iran as countries take steps to reduce their dependencies on the straits? Mark Dubowitz is joined by FDD Senior Advisor Rich Goldberg — who served on the National Security Council as Director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction, helped stand up the White House National Energy Dominance Council, and leads FDD's Energy and National Security Program — to break down the military and energy battles over the Strait and the cards President Trump still has left to play.

Stolen Revolution: Behind Iran's Protest Movements (feat. Bozorgmehr Sharafedin)

Every Iranian revolution begins with an ordinary life hitting an extraordinary wall. Stolen Revolution captures those moments — the personal reckonings with a regime that promised faith and delivered suffocation. Co-authored by award-winning journalists Yeganeh Torbati and Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, the book traces six Iranians living the full arc of modern Iranian history: a Khomeini devotee cast from power, a poet who gave voice to a generation's shattered dreams, a bureaucrat who risked everything to expose state corruption, an entrepreneur crushed by the security apparatus, and two young women who joined the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising. Iran International's Bozorgmehr Sharafedin joins FDD Iran Program Senior Director Behnam Ben Taleblu to unpack the human stories behind Iran's seismic shift from reform to revolution, and what they reveal about life under the Islamic Republic.

The Iran Deal - What Trump Got, What Iran Got, and What Comes Next (feat. Richard Goldberg)

A deal has been struck. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening. Iran's nuclear program is — allegedly — being curtailed. And sanctions relief is on the way. But what did the United States actually get? What did the Islamic Republic walk away with? And does this agreement close the door on Iran's path to a nuclear weapon — or just delay it? Richard Goldberg — FDD's Senior Director for Energy and National Security, former White House NSC Director for Countering Iranian WMD, and one of the architects of maximum pressure — joins Mark Dubowitz to break down the deal, assess the terms, and ask the question that will define its legacy: vice grip or open door?

The Iran Ceasefire Didn't End the Battle for Hormuz (feat. Aaron MacLean)

Is the U.S.-Iran ceasefire built to last? While the bombs have stopped, the strategic Battle for Hormuz continues to threaten global stability. In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, FDD CEO Mark Dubowitz is joined by Aaron MacLean — CBS News national security analyst and host of the School of War podcast — to assess the military, strategic, and geopolitical stakes of the Iran war. Is the ceasefire a pause button or a vice grip? And what did Iran's Hormuz gamble reveal to Beijing, Moscow, and every member of the axis of aggressors watching closely?