
Uncertainty, Intentions and Great Power Conflict — Sebastian Rosato
How certain can great powers ever be about the intentions of their rivals, and what happens when that uncertainty becomes a permanent feature of international politics? In this episode, Professor Sebastian Rosato joins us to discuss 'intentions pessimism', the limits of information, and what uncertainty means for great-power conflict, diplomacy, and the study of international relations. Sebastian Rosato is Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, where he is also a fellow of the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, the Liu Institute for Asia and Asian Studies, and the Nanovic Institute for European Studies. Selected Publications Europe United: Power Politics and the Making of the European Community Intentions in Great Power Politics: Uncertainty and the Roots of Conflict How States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy (with John J. Mearsheimer) Chapters 00:00 Introduction 02:10 Is 'intentions pessimism' a structural or epistemological argument—or are the two inseparable? 04:38 Endemic uncertainty in international relations 06:33 The role of first- and secondhand information 12:48 Waltzian neorealism vs. 'intentions pessimism' 15:27 Has 'intentions pessimism' changed Professor Rosato's stance on IR? 18:11 Is 'intentions pessimism' applicable to great powers only? 20:44 Truism and falsifiability questions 22:20 Which IR theory draws the most criticism of 'intentions pessimism'? 24:50 Liberal institutionalism and constructivism vs. 'intentions pessimism' 28:05 How 'intentions pessimism' works across different regime types 31:41 Case study selection and theory grounding 37:42 Material vs. ideational explanations 40:07 Is 'intentions pessimism' about states or leaders? 42:50 Signals intelligence, satellite surveillance, and AI: do new technologies change the information problem? 46:17 The role of diplomacy and statecraft 47:54 Uncertainty in foreign policy analysis 53:46 How do we make progress in IR theory? Follow & Further Resources Substack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/ X: https://x.com/theirthinker Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/ Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.social Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.