
Why Bitcoin Becoming a 'Boring' Asset is the Ultimate Bull Case
A month before the bottom of the Bitcoin bear market, Anja texted James Check “I’m scared.” James, also known as Checkmatey, onchain analyst at Checkonchain, returns to Honest Money to explain what he told her, how market sentiment has shifted since 2018, and why the pet rock now has a 10 year forecast. James explains the three phases of a bear market, why treasury companies took the blow off top instead of Bitcoin, the reality of the four year cycle, and how he sees the path to $100K and beyond. Anja shares what she learned from her first bear market. 🎙️ EPISODE SUMMARY Anja and James look back on the Bitcoin bear market, from the November sell off to the $58K bottom, and the investor behaviour that shows up in each phase. James explains why he prefers steady accumulation over trying to time the bottom, and how he chooses between Bitcoin, gold and cash as a store of value depending on his time horizon. The conversation then turns to the treasury company boom and bust, record selling from long term holders, altcoins and tokenisation, whether the four year cycle is real, and why James sees institutional normalisation as the most bullish thing for Bitcoin as a long term asset. 🔑 KEY TAKEAWAYS James describes a bear market as a phase shift, a price capitulation, then a long period of time pain James says the bottom is a six to seven month process, not a single price James sees Bitcoin as his longest duration asset and gold as a medium term store of value James says much of the speculative capital last cycle went into treasury company stocks rather than spot Bitcoin James says selling from long term holders in 2024 and 2025 was the largest on record James questions anchoring to a fixed four year cycle based on three data points James expects a phase change once Bitcoin clears $100K James believes Bitcoin becoming a normal, boring asset is bullish ⏱️ CHAPTERS 00:00 Welcome Back James Check 00:50 Anja’s First Bear Market 04:46 James’s First Cycle in 2017 and 2018 06:06 The Three Phases of a Bear Market 10:33 Bear Market Regrets and Muting the Noise 12:55 Why 58K vs 65K Doesn’t Matter Long Term 14:10 The Case for DCA and Learning Markets Through Experience 17:11 Buying the Bottom Is a Process 19:02 Gold vs Bitcoin: The Right Tool for the Job 23:47 Lessons From the Last Cycle 24:48 The Treasury Company Blow Off Top 27:09 OG Selling and the Great Rotation 29:55 Will Treasury Companies Boom Again? 35:18 Why James Stopped Tracking Altcoins 36:44 Tokenisation and Onchain Data for Stocks 39:51 Is the Four Year Cycle Real? 46:13 James’s Roadmap for the Next Few Years 49:03 What Changes Above $100K 50:35 Record Long Term Holder Selling 52:56 Bitcoin Becoming a Normal Asset 55:56 Where to Find James and His New Charting Platform 🔗 FEATURED LINKS Checkonchain: https://checkonchain.com Newsletter: http://newsletter.checkonchain.com James on X: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_ Bitcoin Bush Bash: https://bitcoinbushbash.info/ 🔗 AFFILIATE LINKS Buy Bitcoin in Australia With a $10 Sign Up Bonus HARDBLOCK: https://hardblock.com.au/join/honestmoney Learn to Acquire, Secure, and Manage Your Bitcoin MINERACKS: https://www.mineracks.com/honestmoney Shop Signing Devices, Bitaxes, Nodes, Apparel, and More SHOP BITCOIN AUSTRALIA: https://shopbitcoin.com.au Collaborative Security, Inheritance Planning, and Retirement Strategies THE BITCOIN ADVISER: https://thebitcoinadviser.com/honest-money Reached Terminal Bitcoin? Borrow Against Your Bitcoin Without Selling LOAN MY COINS: https://www.loanmycoins.com/honest-money 📌 ABOUT THE HONEST MONEY SHOW The Honest Money Show explores the forces shaping our financial world, from monetary systems and personal finance to Bitcoin. Through in depth conversations with builders, thinkers, and educators, the show challenges mainstream narratives and provides practical insights into financial sovereignty. 🔗 CONNECT WITH US Subscribe for weekly deep dives into Bitcoin and money literacy. Follow us on Instagram, X, TikTok, and LinkedIn at HonestMoneyShow. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER This podcast is for general information and educational purposes only and is not financial, legal, or tax advice. The views expressed by the host and guest are their own and do not represent any organisation or regulatory body. Financial markets are volatile and speculative. You should seek independent professional advice before making any financial decisions. By listening, you accept that all actions taken are your own responsibility, and neither the host, guest, nor the podcast accept liability for any loss or damage. #Bitcoin #BitcoinAustralia #OnchainAnalysis #Checkonchain #BitcoinCycle #BearMarket #Gold #SoundMoney #MarketPsychology #HonestMoneyShow
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