The Flip Side

Are post-crisis US bank regulations holding markets back?

Post-crisis bank regulations were designed to create a safer financial system. Nearly two decades later, US regulators are revisiting the implementation of some of those rules, with the potential to create more capacity for growing financial markets - and perhaps affect the future of financial stability On this month's Flip Side, Brad Rogoff welcomes Jeff Meli, former host of The Flip Side and current Clinical Professor of Finance at NYU Stern School of Business, to debate the implications of changes to the US implementation of the international banking capital framework. Supporters argue the changes could improve Treasury market liquidity, expand intermediation capacity and support bank profitability. Others question the motivation for the changes, and caution that further revisions could eventually force policymakers to make harder choices between financial stability and market capacity. Together, they examine the trade-off between stability and capacity, and whether higher bank profitability translates into more market capacity, or simply greater shareholder returns at a time when investor capital is increasingly being drawn toward AI-related opportunities. Listeners can learn more about this topic: Flip Side #75: US bank regulatory reform: Capital relief or systemic risk? Flip Side #73: Do the risks of NBFI lending outweigh the opportunities? Barclays Brief #32: Decoding the bond sell-off Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read our latest reports by logging in to Barclays Live: Banks Research: Capital Call

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If the Fed goes quiet, do markets make more noise?

For over three decades, the US Federal Reserve has moved towards greater transparency, introducing new ways of communicating its outlook to markets. Weeks into his tenure, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is reversing that trend. He scrapped forward guidance and opted out of the dot plot, arguing that markets have become overly focused on interpreting Fed signals. ​ In this episode of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research, debate whether markets have become too reliant on central bank communication and what may happen without it. They explore the evolution of Fed transparency, the risk of market volatility if the Fed goes quiet, and whether investors may ultimately benefit from being forced to focus more closely on economic fundamentals.​ The discussion also considers the current macro backdrop and whether a period of inflation uncertainty, oil shocks and market repricing is the right moment for the Fed to take a different approach.​ Listeners can learn more about this topic:​ Flip Side ep. 80: Is US equities exceptionalism finally cracking?​ Barclays Brief ep.34: The Fed’s next move​ Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read our latest reports by logging in to Barclays Live:​ United States: Interest Rates: Returning to the old normal​ Macrocast - US in Focus: Warshspeak​ Important Content Disclosures​

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Welcome to The Flip Side podcast

There are two sides to every story, including in markets. On The Flip Side podcast, two Barclays Research analysts offer perspectives from different angles as they debate the economic and market themes that matter most to investors and business leaders. Each month this award-winning podcast will inform your view through contrasting positions, revealing the nuances that emerge when ideas are tested, challenged and pushed further. Through this debate, our analysts surface the dynamics that may be missed in headline‑driven narratives. The result? A clearer, more rounded understanding of what’s really moving markets that helps you make more informed decisions. Find out more Important Content Disclosures

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Physical AI: Wealth creation or economic displacement?

Artificial intelligence is moving off the screen and into the real economy. For investors, that shifts the focus from software productivity to how labour, capital and markets themselves could be repriced. With machines, such as humanoid robots, increasingly taking on physical tasks, from driving and cleaning to providing healthcare, the question isn’t just how much productivity improves. It’s who benefits, how quickly economies adjust, and what gets disrupted along the way. In Episode 84 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and Head of FX & EM Macro Strategy Themos Fiotakis dig into that tension. On the one hand, history suggests that major technological shifts ultimately create wealth, expand output and spawn new industries. On the other, those transitions can be slow, uneven, and politically and economically destabilising, especially if labour displacement outpaces the ability of economies to adjust. The conversation moves from theory to markets. What does stronger productivity mean for equity returns? Could capital-intensive AI investment push up yields and debt issuance? And if adoption is uneven, which currencies benefit first? What emerges is a familiar “flip side” dynamic: the long-term story may be compelling, but the path to get there could be far more volatile than expected. Clients of the Investment Bank can read further analysis of these themes in ‘Embodied AI: Wealth creation or economic displacement?’ on Barclays Live.

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Do high gas prices change how Americans buy cars?

Gasoline prices in the United States have risen to over $4 per gallon since the Iran war began in February. When combined with higher car prices, higher interest rates and rising auto loan delinquencies – not to mention other affordability concerns consumers face – might consumers change their car buying preferences?​ In this episode of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Dan Levy, US Autos and Mobility Equity Research Analyst, debate whether higher fuel costs are the straw that breaks the camel's back, or if strong vehicle preferences and a more concentrated set of affluent buyers are enough to hold current dynamics. ​ They also discuss whether fuel costs could be a catalyst for electric vehicle (EV) adoption, and if technology improvements could make autonomous ride hailing a credible alternative to car ownership in the future. ​ Listeners can learn more about this topic:​ Flip Side ep.79: Will the US consumer hold up in 2026? ​ Barclays Brief ep.12: Robotaxis: The future of mobility​ Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read our latest reports by logging in to Barclays Live:​ Gauging the impact on autos from higher oil prices - questions on mix, inflation ​ EV Report Card: A closer look at the Chinese EV mix shift

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$1 trillion AI capex by 2028: Justified or inflated?

Since 2022, AI capital investment has skyrocketed. But can AI capex reach $1 trillion by 2028, as our Equity Research analysts forecast? Labs are reporting rapid growth, and signs show AI demand spreading beyond the hyperscalers to sovereigns and non-tech enterprises. Yet practical barriers such as power supply, infrastructure timelines and the need for clear ROI could but the brakes on capex. In episode 82 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Tom O'Malley, Equity Research Analyst for US Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment, debate whether today’s rapid AI adoption is enough to justify that level of capex or if real-world constraints will force expectations lower. Listeners can learn more about this topic: Barclays Brief Ep 25: The cusp of a capex super cycle AI gets physical: Innovation meets opportunity Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read our latest reports by logging in to Barclays Live: Framework for Modeling AI Demand & Supply – Capex 'Peak' Likely in 2028 Powering AI: Gas Turbines Could Make or Break AI Ambitions Important Content Disclosures

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Should alternative asset managers be trading like software?

Private credit has been a powerful growth engine for alternative asset managers, with business development corporations (BDCs) playing a central role. As AI adoption accelerates and software business models come under pressure, investors are concerned with how exposed these managers are to software and other tech-enabled business models that could be disrupted. In recent weeks, investors have sold down their positions, sending some alternative asset managers’ stock prices down roughly 25%. But is that selloff rational or not? In episode 81 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, our Global Head of Research, is joined by Ben Budish, our Equity Research Analyst who covers US Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges, to debate whether the recent selloff was justified. They discuss why AI disruption has become a focal point for markets, how valuation frameworks for alternative managers amplify volatility, and where risks may be overstated versus structurally real. The conversation also explores what this means for future growth across private credit, private equity and insurance channels, and where differentiation may emerge after an indiscriminate selloff. Listeners can hear more on this topic on our sister podcast, Barclays Brief: Software: In the AI storm Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on our view on equities with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including: Barclays HY Software Agentic AI Disruption Risk in Focus Software Is Not Dead, Just Changing Widespread Exposure to Software Creates Uncertainty Important Content Disclosures

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Is US equities exceptionalism finally cracking?

After more than a decade of US equity dominance, international markets made a rare comeback in 2025. Europe, Japan, Emerging Markets and the UK outperformed, the majority of global equity flows went outside the US, and investors began to revisit long‑standing assumptions around US equities exceptionalism. Was this simply a cyclical reset after years of US outperformance, or the start of a more durable shift in global equity allocation? In this episode of The Flip Side, our Global Head of Research, Brad Rogoff, is joined by our Head of European Equity Strategy, Emmanuel Cau, to debate what drove last year’s rotation, whether it has further room to run, and how investors should think about diversification in 2026. Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on our view on equities with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including: Chaotic, but resilient – February Chart Pack Buy/Sell American Important content disclosures

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Will the US consumer hold up in 2026?

The US consumer showed notable resilience over the holiday period, with retail sales and e-commerce activity remaining robust. Yet, beneath the surface, sentiment surveys signal caution, as consumer confidence hovers near multi-year lows. Against this backdrop, the primary question is whether strong spending can persist as households navigate inflation fatigue, policy changes, and widening economic bifurcation. In Episode 79 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and US Cosmetics, Household, Personal Care & Beverages Research Analyst Lauren Lieberman debate the split between hard spending data and soft sentiment indicators. They explore the rise of value-focused shopping, the expansion of Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) into essentials, and the outsized role of upper-income cohorts in driving aggregate demand. Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on US consumer strategy with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including: 26 'What Ifs' for 2026 2026 Outlook: Riding the Waves, but Still Far from Shore

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UK Autumn Budget: Success or shortfall?

The UK’s fiscal policy faced a pivotal moment as Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her second Autumn Budget, confronting market and political pressures. The budget builds fiscal headroom mainly through tax rises deferred until 2028, sparking debate over its credibility. Markets responded favourably, with gilt yields steady and the FTSE 250 gaining ground since. Yet sentiment remains fragile amid ongoing political uncertainty. In Episode 78 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and UK Chief Economist Jack Meaning debate the implications for markets, inflation and the UK’s economic future. Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on UK macro strategy with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including: Autumn Budget: Consolidate, but not yet The signal from the noise

Is Japan doubling down on Abenomics, or redefining it?

Japan’s economic policy stands at a crossroads as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi takes office, with the legacy of Abenomics challenged by shifting market and political realities. The yen has halved against the dollar since 2012, superlong Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields are at record highs, and demographic changes have reshaped demand for government bonds, setting the stage for a global debate on whether Japan’s new leadership can adapt its economic strategy to meet current challenges without causing instability at home or abroad. In Episode 77 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and Head of Japan FX & Rates Strategy Shinichiro Kadota analyse the credibility of Japan’s fiscal ambitions, the fragility of JGB supply-demand, and consider the impact of persistent inflation on the Bank of Japan’s rate path.

Is the AI investment cycle a sign of history repeating?

Artificial intelligence has become the defining investment theme of the current market cycle, with capital expenditure on AI infrastructure reaching unprecedented levels. Hyperscalers have announced nearly $400 billion in capex for this year alone, and forecasts suggest annual increases of 30% in the years ahead. As investors weigh the promise of this transformative technology against the risks of overbuilding, the debate intensifies: will markets continue to run efficiently or are we repeating the excesses of past tech booms that led to busts? In Episode 76 of The Flip Side podcast, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Venu Krishna, Head of US Equity Strategy, examine the forces behind the AI investment surge and consider the bull and bear cases that surge presents. They explore whether current spending is justified by demand, how power and infrastructure constraints could shape the outlook, and what lessons can be drawn from previous cycles of rapid tech expansion. With AI capex now central to both equity valuations and broader economic growth, this episode unpacks the critical questions facing portfolio managers as they navigate one of the most consequential debates in today’s markets. For deeper insight, clients can access related Barclays Research on Barclays Live: Equity Strategy: Lost My Chain-of-Thought: Could the AI narrative stumble? Food for Thought: Generative AI vs. cash generation Episode 69 'Is there too much hype for AI and the hyperscalers?' Important Content Disclosures

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US bank regulatory reform: Capital relief or systemic risk?

In June, US banking regulators, led by the Federal Reserve, proposed changes to the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR), a regulatory measure used to ensure financial stability by limiting excessive leverage. Despite expectations that easing the SLR rules will unlock lending and liquidity in the US economy, concerns remain over potential risks to financial stability. While large US banks tend to maintain capital buffers well above regulatory minimums, critics believe the Fed’s proposal could shift capital away from the intended outcomes and toward shareholders or proprietary trading. In Episode 75 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and US Large-Cap Bank Analyst Jason Goldberg debate whether the SLR changes will strengthen or strain the US banking system. Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on bank capital in several recent publications: Large-Cap Bank Capital Outlook: SCB improvement near-term, more meaningful changes looking out Fed issues proposal to reduce SLR minimum, the first of several capital changes expected SLR relief - Why we think it helps

Are oil markets set to heat up or burn out?

Despite widespread expectations of weakening demand for oil, market fundamentals are showing signs of tightening. A slowdown in US shale production and resilient demand across emerging economies could point to a potential shift in the price of oil. When it comes to demand, elevated refining margins and unexpectedly low inventory levels suggest that actual demand may be outpacing modelled projections. On the supply side, extended development timelines for new projects and the lingering effects of pandemic-era underinvestment have left the market increasingly exposed to potential shortfalls. In Episode 74 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and lead equity analyst for European energy Lydia Rainforth consider the evolving dynamics of the oil market.

Do the risks of NBFI lending outweigh the opportunities?

Commercial & Industrial loans from banks are on the decline, and lending to Main Street and consumers from non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) is on the rise. But here’s the paradox: traditional banks are fuelling this rise of NBFIs by lending capital to what were once their competitors. While this systemic shift plays out among lenders, there are questions about whether post-global financial crash regulations – such as stress testing and liquidity requirements – are keeping pace with this market as it grows. Could further growth in this $1 trillion market threaten the stability of the wider banking system? In Episode 73 of The Flip Side podcast, our Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and Senior High Grade Financials Analyst Pete Troisi debate whether the risks outweigh the opportunities in this evolving market.

Is the US bond market starting to rebel?

US Treasury bonds are widely regarded as the “world’s risk-free asset.” However, in recent weeks, global investors have increasingly shied away from 30-year US bonds, opting for flexible, shorter-term maturities, due to a combination of growing interest rate risk, sticky inflation and economic uncertainty. As a result, 30-year interest rates are within striking distance of their highest level since the global financial crisis. This demand for risk premium is not limited just to US long-dated bonds; UK gilts and Japanese 30-year bonds have also experienced new highs recently, suggesting the bond market could be starting to rebel. In episode 72 of the Flip Side podcast, our Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff joins Global Chairman of Research Ajay Rajadhyaksha to assess the situation and debate whether the high rates are transitory or here to stay. Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read further analysis of these topics in the latest Global Rates Weekly titled ‘Unusual uncertainty’ on Barclays Live.

Is this the end of the dollar as we know it?

Following the 2024 US election, predictions of a dollar rally were easy to come by, based on the presumption that President Trump would implement his proposed trade agenda. While Liberation Day and subsequent trade negotiations see some of those expectations realised, the dollar rally hasn’t materialised. In fact, the narrative has turned to widespread concern that the age of the “mighty dollar” is coming to an end. With investors seemingly losing faith in the Greenback, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff sits down with Themos Fiotakis, Head of FX Research, to discuss whether cyclical issues, including new trade policies, are squeezing the dollar or if more structural forces, such as the longer term de-dollarisation of reserves, are at play. Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read further analysis of these topics in ‘The end of the dollar as we know it?’ on Barclays Live. Important content disclosures

Will tariffs trigger a recession?

The course of the US economy has changed since the beginning of April, when tariffs were introduced – and subsequently paused. This, combined with reduced immigration and already waning consumer and business confidence in the face of growing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, raises the question: have these tariffs introduced the possibility of a recession in 2025? In this episode, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff sits down with Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research, to unpack the economic effect, debating whether the anticipated slowdown in growth will lead to a recession in an economy that grew at 2.5% in 2024. Brad and Ajay examine key economic areas, including the labour force, consumer spending, business investment and currency effects as they discuss what’s next for the US economy. Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read further analysis of these topics in our Q2 2025 Global Outlook report and on our Tariffs 2.0 Hub on Barclays Live.

Is there too much hype for AI and the hyperscalers?

AI has been a major focal point for investors as tech companies compete for an edge in the race to deliver on its promises. The hyperscalers – tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta – have invested heavily in developing massive data centres, spending billions to stay ahead. But could DeepSeek, the Chinese startup, force a fundamental rethink of what’s required for AI to advance? In episode 69 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, our Global Head of Research, and Ross Sandler, Head of Consumer Internet Equity Research, dive into the potential long-term effects of DeepSeek’s breakthrough. They explore whether hyperscalers still live up to the hype and how future AI innovations could alter the competitive landscape.

Will European equities outperform the US in 2025?

Europe is the top performing region year to date in equity markets. Can this outperformance be sustained given the Stoxx 600 has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 over the last 25 years? Even backing out Big Tech from indices, European stocks are significantly discounted compared to their American peers. In episode 68 of The Flip Side, Venu Krishna, Head of US Equity Strategy & Global Equity Linked Strategies, and Emmanuel Cau, Head of European Equity Strategy, consider the factors investors should watch, from the macro and geopolitical backdrop on both sides of the pond, to the influence of the Magnificent 7 and currency and rate effects. Clients can read further analysis of these topics under Equity Strategy on Barclays Live.