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The Erick Erickson Show

Erick Erickson

The Erick Erickson Show cuts through the chaos with bold clarity and biblical conviction. Broadcasting live each weekday, Erick tackles the stories that matter - from Washington to Wall Street to your backyard - with fearless analysis rooted in Christian truth and conservative principles. No tribal talking points. No partisan spin. Just straight talk from a host who believes in the sovereignty of God, the greatness of America, and the importance of holding everyone accountable - right or left.

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S15 · E165
Yesterday · 36 min
S15 EP165: Hour 1 - The Resurgent Doomers
Erick makes the case that the AI safety panic is regulatory capture dressed up as the apocalypse: Anthropic, racing toward an IPO and burning cash on GPUs and data centers, wants Washington to freeze its competitors in place before open source models from Meta catch up. He plays Kara Swisher's nuclear nonproliferation analogy on CNN and dismantles it with the history of the China Syndrome, Three Mile Island, and the 100 nuclear plants America never built, then plays David Sacks calling Dario Amodei's bluff. The back half is a full teardown of effective altruism, the Sam Bankman Fried utilitarian cult now running AI safety, complete with shrimp welfare and a Beth Barnes TED talk. AI as a math equation, not a god: why the doomers keep building what they claim will kill us Anthropic's IPO, GPU costs, closed models versus Meta's open source, and regulation as a moat Kara Swisher's nuclear analogy, the China Syndrome, Three Mile Island, and the Soviet funded anti nuclear pivot to climate change David Sacks and JD Vance on the AI Trojan horse: if you believe it ends humanity, why are you running the company Effective altruism, Sam Bankman Fried, William MacAskill, Beth Barnes, and shrimp welfare as moral math, plus a preview of tomorrow's newsletter naming names on the right
S15 · E165
Yesterday · 36 min
S15 EP165: Hour 2 - The H1B Complaint
Erick returns to Beau French and the Indian American Longhorns fans in Stetsons to argue that a legitimate grievance about H-1B visa abuse is being allowed to rot into racism, and he warns that America is walking the same road that produced the AfD and Europe's far right. Then a hard look at the numbers: the New York Times and Siena College poll has Democrats up 51 to 43 on the generic ballot, President Trump at 38 percent approval, 31 percent on the war in Iran and 28 percent on cost of living, with Nate Cohn drawing the 2006 comparison. The bond market is doing its own voting, with the 10 year Treasury yield at a 19 year high, the Dow off more than 400 points, and crude at 106 dollars a barrel. Beau French, the University of Texas, and why assimilated American kids became a target for the anti DEI right Europe's far right, no go zones, the British rape gangs, and what happens when elites refuse to fix immigration Real H-1B visa abuse: the Disney layoffs, universities importing cheap labor, the "unique skills" dodge, and Erick's own immigration law practice stories The New York Times and Siena poll, Nate Cohn's 2006 parallel, JD Vance campaigning in Kansas, and why Erick still says do not panic James Talarico on parents and gender transition, Ken Paxton, Susan Collins, John Sununu, and the redistricting red wall The bond market rejecting Washington, the 10 year Treasury at a 19 year high, and Anduril's drone challenge to Lockheed Martin and Raytheon
S15 · E165
Yesterday · 36 min
S15 EP165: Hour 3 - The War on Religion
Erick opens on a religious liberty case the Supreme Court has just agreed to hear, and it is one he says he could not believe was real: University Heights, Ohio, a Cleveland suburb, threatened Daniel Grand with jail, sent police to monitor his house, and encouraged neighbors to report "unauthorized prayer activity" after he tried to gather ten Orthodox Jews for a minyan on the Sabbath, with neighbors telling him "we don't want your kind here" because they feared the neighborhood would be labeled Jewish. He walks it back through Kelvin Cochran, the Atlanta fire chief fired over his Sunday school book, Jack Phillips and the Colorado Civil Rights Commission, and RLUIPA. The second half is the Supreme Court blocking the Trump administration's Postal Service ballot mail rule, with Erick taking the side of Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Roberts and Amy Coney Barrett against Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, and asking Republicans a simple question: do you want Barack Obama's Postal Service holding a barcode that says this ballot belongs to this Republican? Daniel Grand, University Heights, Ohio, and a city using its police force to watch an Orthodox Jewish family for unauthorized prayer, now headed to the Supreme Court Kelvin Cochran, Jack Phillips, the Colorado Civil Rights Commission, Charlie Hebdo, and the argument from "You Will Be Made to Care" that the difference between the two persecutions is the sword The Postal Service ballot rule struck down: Alito and Thomas in dissent, four conservatives in the majority, and Erick's Lois Lerner and IRS warning about who controls the machinery next time A preview of tomorrow's newsletter naming the money behind the anti-Semitic turn on the right, the Franco admirers, and the effort to capture the Southern Baptist Convention and the Presbyterian Church in America John Kennedy grilling FBI Director Kash Patel over a hiring rule change on bestiality, plus breaking news: a Kansas man charged over threats to kill Ben Shapiro, a Russian murder for hire indictment in the Southern District of New York, and a disrupted ISIS plot in Philadelphia
S15 · E164
Monday · 36 min
S15 EP164: Hour 1 - Against the Doomers
Erick walks through regulatory capture in real time: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's "We Must Pace the Frontier" essay, the coordinated Jacob Coxson resignation rollout in the Wall Street Journal, and the Bernie Sanders and Greg Casar bill to create a cabinet level AI agency. He traces the money from Dustin Moskovitz, Open Philanthropy, and the Survival and Flourishing Fund back to the same people who own Anthropic, then explains why Meta and Mark Zuckerberg's open source models are the real competitive threat and why nobody is asking for strict liability. In the second half he takes apart Texas Railroad Commission candidate Beau French for a racist tweet about Indian American students at the University of Texas, and argues the right is repeating the identity politics mistake that cost the left two elections. Regulatory capture explained through AT&T and the FCC, the railroads and the Interstate Commerce Commission, the airlines and the Civil Aeronautics Board, and the insurance industry writing the Affordable Care Act The Jacob Coxson resignation, the Hugging Face incident, Anthropic, OpenAI, METR, and the donor network funding both the doomers and the companies demanding regulation Why Meta and Mark Zuckerberg's open models are the actual target, the Anthropic IPO, and why Anthropic and OpenAI want regulation instead of Hammurabi style strict liability Beau French, the Texas Railroad Commission, and the University of Texas photo: the real UT Austin demographic numbers, Greg Abbott's response, and the H-1B visa abuse that has a kernel of truth inside the race baiting Tropic Thunder, Kirk Lazarus, and the warning to Republicans chasing algorithm revenue, plus Tom Tiffany's plane crash landing in Lake Wausau and the Cowboys losing to the Giants
S15 · E164
Monday · 36 min
S15 EP164: Hour 2 - Where Have All the Normal People Gone?
Erick opens with a progressive tech writer's essay about neighbors named Bob and Van, men whose politics never came up because politics was not the whole of life, and turns it into an argument that social media has catechized both parties out of normalcy. He plays Bill Maher's Real Time monologue on radical Islamism, Osama bin Laden's polling among young Americans, and the parallel between 2020 stolen election claims and Gaza genocide claims as tribal loyalty tests, then walks the Senate Leadership Fund's $25 million ad buy across seven states and explains what the missing Georgia money says about Mike Collins, Jon Ossoff, and the AI generated attack ad nobody asked for. He closes on Ken Paxton's AI generated James Talarico ad, Abdul El-Sayed's refusal to answer for Hasan Piker in Michigan, and President Trump lifting tariffs on Irish whiskey as a favor. TOPICS Where have all the normal people gone: the Bob and Van essay, Lindsay Clancy defenders on TikTok, Beau French and the University of Texas photo, and why normal people who work, watch football, and skip conventions still decide elections Bill Maher on Real Time: radical Islamism versus Western liberalism, one in five young Americans with a favorable view of Osama bin Laden, Luigi Mangione, and the stolen election and Gaza genocide as matching tribal loyalty tests Senate Leadership Fund drops $25 million across Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Alaska, with nothing for Mike Collins in Georgia and the Trump super PAC covering Texas instead The AI generated ad problem: the Ossoff ad calling him too pretty for office, Ken Paxton's AI James Talarico bible spot, and why using fake video when real video exists is political malpractice Abdul El-Sayed dodges on Hasan Piker in Michigan, John Sununu versus Chris Pappas puts New Hampshire in play, plus Irish whiskey tariff favors, the 10 year Treasury yield at 5%, Speaker Mike Johnson and David Sacks on AI regulation, and Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson's step by step progress on crime
S15 · E164
Monday · 36 min
S15 EP164: Hour 3 - Wave vs Wall
Erick Erickson takes a caller's tale of two Georgia ad campaigns, Rick Jackson's brutal and effective spots against Keisha Lance Bottoms versus the One Nation tax ads carrying Mike Collins against Jon Ossoff, and turns it into the central question of the 2026 midterms: a blue wave is coming, but is the red wall the GOP built taller than the wave? He stakes out his own call of a 10 to 15 seat Democratic House pickup with the Senate holding, walks through New Hampshire, Michigan, North Carolina, Maine, Texas, Iowa, and Kansas, and plays the Roger Marshall town hall where Republicans in the crowd, not just the progressive hecklers, start booing the moment he defends tariffs. In the back half he digs into the ProPublica report that a Russian oligarch quietly bankrolled Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding, then explains in plain language why a $5,000 tariff dividend check would pour fuel on inflation right as the Federal Reserve decides whether to raise interest rates. The Georgia ad war: Rick Jackson defining Keisha Lance Bottoms on crime while she has no money to answer, the One Nation $2,100 tax increase ad against Jon Ossoff, why the Mike Collins makeup attack is political malpractice, and the Trafalgar poll showing Ossoff up 49 to 43 Blue wave versus red wall: Erick's 10 to 15 seat House call against Mark Halperin's 25, why the Senate map still favors Republicans in New Hampshire, Michigan, Iowa, Alaska, Nebraska, and Florida, and what a Democratic Senate would mean for JD Vance in 2028 Roger Marshall gets booed in Kansas by his own voters over tariffs, JD Vance campaigning in a state Republicans should not have to defend, the Real Clear Politics average showing a 50-50 Senate, and the 6.7 point Democratic generic ballot lead ProPublica reports Russian oligarch Umar Kremlev secretly bankrolled Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding, Eric Trump says he has no idea who the man is, and why Erick still rejects the Russian stooge theory while calling this an unforced gift to Democrats Affordability is the number one issue: data center construction propping up the economy while driving concrete, aluminum, and chip prices up, the 50% tariff on Canadian lumber, nine straight months of wages trailing inflation, and why Erick says the $5,000 check is a Diocletian style mistake the Federal Reserve will have to clean up
S15 · E163
Friday · 36 min
S15 EP163: Hour 1 - Remembering
On the 25th anniversary of September 11, 2001, Erick Erickson opens not with the news but with Welles Crowther, the 24 year old equities trader on the 104th floor of the South Tower who tied a red bandana around his face, carried an injured woman down 17 floors, and went back up the stairs again and again until he died alongside firefighters in the lobby. Prompted by a question from his daughter Evelyn about whether Americans have turned misery into a way of honoring the day, Erick draws a hard line between grieving and honoring, reads the names of the 2,977 dead, and argues that the unity of September 12 was cheap unity because fear is free. He revisits Todd Beamer and Flight 93, the 343 firefighters and 71 police officers, Article 5 of NATO, Cantor Fitzgerald's 658 employees, President Trump's posthumous Presidential Medal of Freedom for Crowther, and the algorithmic outrage industry that now profits from keeping Americans sorted into factions. Welles Crowther, the red bandana, the 78th floor sky lobby, and the Tunnel to Towers Foundation touring the South Tower stairwell as Trump awards him the Presidential Medal of Freedom Erick's answer to his daughter Evelyn: grief fades with time and is private, honor is public and chosen, and a country that only knows how to grieve on September 11 has made an idol of the day Why the post 9/11 unity was cheap: Gettysburg 1913, British poppies, the 2000 Florida recount, Jim Jeffords, and unity that only shows up when a building falls on your neighbors Todd Beamer, Flight 93, "let's roll," the Pentagon, Article 5 of NATO, and the 2,977 names Erick challenges listeners to scroll through Caller Mark in Jacksonville on why America came together after 9/11 and tore itself apart over COVID, plus Erick on Albany Georgia, the conspiracy theorists who still claim controlled demolition, and the algorithm that pays people to divide us Erick's own September 11 memory in a middle Georgia law office, the out of town lawyer who insisted the deposition go forward, Adam Milani and Oklahoma City, and the moment he stopped wanting to be a lawyer
S15 · E163
Friday · 36 min
S15 EP163: Hour 2 - Perhaps I'm a Contrarian Indicator
Erick Erickson takes apart the Politico story out of the Republican midterm convention in Dallas claiming panic over the Senate map, siding with Chris LaCivita and walking through why a five point Democratic polling bias in September means Republicans in Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, and Texas are actually ahead, not drowning. Then the August consumer price index lands at 3.4 percent, Mark Zandi and Thomas Ryan warn the Federal Reserve may raise rates next week, the 30 year mortgage hits 6.76 percent, and Erick issues a direct challenge to President Trump: take every tariff to zero between now and Election Day and run the experiment. TOPICS The Politico "doom in Dallas" story, Meredith Lee Hill and Aaron Daugherty, and why Erick sides with Chris LaCivita over the anonymous Republican strategists The 2020 comparison: Lindsey Graham, Joni Ernst, Roger Marshall, and John Cornyn were all "toss ups" at this exact point and all won comfortably Erick's forecast: the GOP loses the House, loses Georgia and North Carolina, but holds the Senate, with Ken Paxton surviving in Texas and Susan Collins preferable to the unvetted alternative August CPI at 3.4 percent, gas up 27.4 percent, airline fares up 23 percent, and the Iran war as the energy shock economists including Joe Siedel at JP Morgan blame for it The tariff challenge to President Trump, wages running beneath inflation, the 10 year Treasury pushing mortgages to 6.76 percent, and why used car and auto insurance prices are the only things falling Caller Alan on broken trust, forty trillion in debt, and a country that has not felt this pulled apart since the Civil War
S15 · E163
Friday · 37 min
S15 EP163: Hour 3 - Washington Is Not Coming to Save You
Erick Erickson closes the 25th anniversary of September 11 by playing the sound a camera crew heard at the World Trade Center that afternoon, more than 300 firefighter PASS device alarms sounding under the rubble, then turns the overwhelming weight of the news into practical advice out of Jeremiah's letter to the exiles in Babylon: seek the welfare of the city in which you live, because Washington is not coming to help you. From there it is an Open Line Friday run through the Lindsay Clancy trial twist, where juror Paula Devlin told Gayle King on CBS that the lone holdout who wanted a guilty verdict was the only black man on the panel, plus Ted Cruz and Dave McCormick warning about a red green alliance of communists and Islamists at the Republican convention, President Trump's wardrobe jab at Ken Paxton, and the $5,000 Trump dividend that landed like a lead balloon with congressional Republicans. Erick ends where he began, with Welles Crowther, the red bandana, and the Presidential Medal of Freedom. The PASS device audio from Ground Zero, the 300 plus firefighters lost, and Erick's answer to feeling overwhelmed by inflation, China, Russia, Iran, the Sahel, and fentanyl all at once Jeremiah 29 and the Babylonian exile as practical living rather than theology: volunteer at the food bank, read to kids at the elementary school, spend money locally, know your city councilman, because Washington did not storm the towers and is not coming for you The Lindsay Clancy jury twist: juror Paula Devlin, Gayle King saying she has to sit with that, the white jurors who wanted not guilty by reason of insanity, and Erick's shot at the online racists who assumed the opposite Ted Cruz on the red green alliance, Dave McCormick on socialism returning from the dustbin of history, Zohran Mamdani and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez laughing during the reading of the names, and the al Qaeda volunteer headed to Congress from New Jersey Why Israel has not finished the job in Iran: Erdogan, the Turks, the Kurds in northern Iraq, and a president who took his friend's phone call over the war plan President Trump on Ken Paxton's wardrobe, the $5,000 Trump dividend Congress does not want, caller Jim at 80 on his schizophrenic brother-in-law and the case for reopening Milledgeville and the mental institutions, and Welles Crowther climbing back up the stairs
S15 · E162
Thursday · 36 min
S15 EP162: Hour 1 - Unicorn Farts
Erick opens on President Trump's Dallas convention promise of a $5,000 "Trump dividend" to every adult citizen if Republicans hold the House and Senate, and calls it what it is: a bribe funded by the tariffs listeners are already paying, with JD Vance out on Fox News defending it. His counteroffer is zero income tax for married couples with kids earning under $200,000, money people keep instead of money the government prints and hands back. Then the real story of the hour, the Republican midterm message of common sense versus crazy, as James Talarico scrambles to walk back six genders and a non-binary God, Abdul El-Sayed runs from his 9/11 problem, John Fetterman cuts an ad for Dave McCormick, and a new Tony Fabrizio poll shows Talarico beating Ken Paxton in Texas by four. Trump's $5,000 dividend pitch in Dallas, the never-delivered $5,000 DOGE check, and why Erick calls it bribery and "unicorn farts" JD Vance on Brett Baier defending tariffs as the funding source, and Erick's rebuttal that American workers pay tariffs through flat wages and higher prices on beef, coffee and bananas The better plan: zero income tax on married couples with children under $200,000 instead of a Biden-style $2,000 COVID check that reignites inflation Common sense versus crazy: James Talarico backpedaling on SB 14, transgender surgeries for minors and "God is non-binary," plus his Charlie Kirk dodge Mike Rogers, Abdul El-Sayed and the 9/11 attack line in Michigan, John Fetterman's ad for Dave McCormick, Jake Tapper on tied Senate races, and the Fabrizio poll red flag with Talarico up four on Ken Paxton
S15 · E162
Thursday · 36 min
S15 EP162: Hour 2 - Affordability
Erick opens with the hard economic numbers Republicans keep trying to spin past: the Atlanta Fed says a household now needs $124,674 a year to afford a median priced home against a median income just over $80,000, wholesale prices rose 0.4 percent in August with the producer price index running 5.4 percent annually, diesel surged 24.1 percent, and West Texas crude sits above $101 a barrel with Brent at $106. His argument is that President Trump should stop spinning and level with people, because Iran is deliberately wrecking the American economy to elect weak Democrats and win a nuclear weapon. Then the story of the hour: Erick walks through the case that Jacob Coxon's dramatic resignation from Anthropic after six weeks is not organic at all, but a funded operation to regulate American AI into oblivion. The Atlanta Fed housing math, the August producer price index, 24.1 percent diesel, oil over $100 a barrel, and why the Federal Reserve interest rate decision next week still points to a hike Trump's claim that the war ends immediately after the election, and Erick's case that Iran is holding the American economy hostage to install Democrats who will let them go nuclear Erick's frustration with the tariffs and the Canada trade war, and his pitch to blame Joe Biden's economy while running on common sense versus crazy The Jacob Coxon story: six weeks at Anthropic, a Wall Street Journal exclusive, a Twitter post 18 minutes later with 149 million views, and Anderson Cooper and Brett Baier interviews demanding an international body to control AI Following the money, from Extinction Rebellion and Newspeak to Jan Tallinn, the Survival and Flourishing Fund, Encode AI, the AI Policy Network, the AI Futures Project, Dustin Moskovitz and Bernie Sanders' bill to ban artificial superintelligence, with Elon Musk, Dylan Loomis and Parker Thayer questioning whether any of it is organic
S15 · E162
Thursday · 36 min
S15 EP162: Hour 3 - Britain Wants the Tates Extradited
Erick opens the final hour on Eva Moskowitz's Washington Post op-ed and the Success Academy lawsuit against New York education commissioner Betty Rosa, filed after the state blocked US News and World Report from reporting aggregate AP exam results, dropping one Success Academy high school from 11th in New York to 196th overnight. Then the news of the hour: the United Kingdom has formally requested the extradition of Andrew and Tristan Tate on 59 charges, including 15 counts of rape, and Erick names the right wing influencers who elevated them anyway. He closes on the eve of the 25th anniversary of September 11 with George W. Bush at Ground Zero, the 537 votes in Florida, the USA Today recount that would have cost Bush the presidency under his own hanging chad standard, and a hard argument about Islam, Charlie Hebdo, and the post liberal right. Eva Moskowitz, Success Academy charter schools and the federal lawsuit against Betty Rosa over New York hiding AP exam data, plus regents exams curved down to 29 of 82 raw points Teachers unions, whole word reading versus phonics as a revenue play, Mississippi outperforming California and New York, and the Georgia speaker pushing the Mississippi plan School choice, Bibb County school closings decided by race instead of academics, and Erick's defense of good teachers stuck babysitting kids the state forces through the door The United Kingdom's extradition request for Andrew and Tristan Tate, 42 charges against Andrew and 17 against Tristan, and the Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson wing that promoted them The 25th anniversary of September 11, George W. Bush's bullhorn moment and Yankee Stadium pitch, Bush versus Al Gore and the 537 votes, Saxby Chambliss beating Max Cleland, and why Erick says Islam as practiced is incompatible with Western free speech The post liberal right, Patrick Deneen, JD Vance's advisers, and Erick's case that attacking classical liberalism is socialism with a church pew
S15 · E161
September 9 · 36 min
S15 EP161: Hour 1 - Convention Day Arrives
Erick opens the midterm stretch run by dismantling the Republican panic over Senate polling, using Patrick Ruffini's study of 3,312 polls showing Democrats are overstated by an average of 3.7 points, with the high water mark landing right at Labor Day. Then, as the Republican convention opens on the week of the 25th anniversary of 9/11, he argues the GOP should embrace the nationalized election and run on it, pointing to the Great Lakes PAC ad hitting Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate race. Plus Trump's Presidential Medal of Freedom for the Man in the Red Bandana, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declaring "I am the house now." Patrick Ruffini's polling error data: Democrats overstated 3.7 points on average, 73 percent of polls, peaking at 5.9 in late July The 2020 echo: Lindsey Graham, Steve Bullock, Cal Cunningham, Roger Marshall, John Cornyn, Joni Ernst, Cindy Hyde-Smith, and every panic that fizzled Race by race averages in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, with Ken Paxton and Michael Whatley the real trouble spots 9/11 at 25: Erick's daughter Evelyn on remembrance versus a macabre idol, TSA opening gate access again, and the Man in the Red Bandana Medal of Freedom Mike Rogers versus Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, the Great Lakes PAC ad, and Erick's case for nationalizing the election on 9/11 Scott Bessent at SMU: "I am the house now," the yen intervention, and the tripled Treasury buyback of 10 and 20 year notes
S15 · E161
September 9 · 36 min
S15 EP161: Hour 2 - The Trade War
Erick opens hour two with survivors calling in on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, including Robert, who was on the 101st floor of the South Tower, and Greg, who listened over a squawk box as Cantor Fitzgerald went silent. Then he tears into the Trump administration's trade war of choice with Canada and the move to ban Bombardier jets, warning it puts Roger Marshall in Kansas, Susan Collins in Maine and Mike Rogers in Michigan at real risk two months before the election. He closes with a nuanced defense of Flock cameras paired with a hard line on facial recognition, and a blistering take on Anthropic researchers publicly claiming AI could kill humanity. Callers Robert and Greg on surviving 9/11, Aon's 176 dead, Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick, and a generation of kids with no memory of the world before Zohran-style progressives who say America deserved 9/11: Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, the "hurt people hurt people" line, and Erick's case for nationalizing the midterms on 9/11 The Canada trade war: the Bombardier ban, 2,000 Kansas jobs, Howard Lutnick sabotaging a done deal, Jamieson Greer, oil over $100 a barrel and the Dow down 300 Flock cameras defended and limited: no right to privacy in your license plate, but ban facial recognition in the public right of way and ban proactive alerts, with WSB TV's Brookhaven case of a family ticketed over stale insurance data Anthropic's Evan Hubinger and a departing researcher saying AI could kill all humans, and why Erick is not buying it: "I read the end of the book"
S15 · E161
September 9 · 36 min
S15 EP161: Hour 3 - A Low Trust Society
Erick opens hour three with the Wall Street Journal story on why returning online orders got hard, Lane Bryant restocking fees, shortened Macy's and Home Depot return windows, McDonald's killing free refills, and argues none of it is corporate penny pinching. It is what a low trust society looks like when a post Christian America abandons the ethics that made cheap trust possible. He then takes a caller on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, and delivers his sharpest attack yet on the JD Vance welfare proposal, calling it a plan to turn stay at home moms into welfare queens, before objecting to the Attorney General speaking at the Republican convention in Dallas. The Wall Street Journal on return fees: Lane Bryant, Zara, H&M, Uniqlo, TJ Maxx, Macy's cut from a year to 30 days, Home Depot's seven day window, and 68 percent of retailers now charging Why the low trust society explains it all: shoplifting, locked up razor blades at Target, dashcams, drivers in the left lane, Roman lawsuits as spectator sport, and Ross Douthat's post Christian right Caller Kathleen in Jacksonville on the 9/11 25th anniversary, never forget, and Erick on his daughter's question about where remembering ends and idolatry begins JD Vance and the Trump administration draft rule extending child care welfare to married couples: the $9,000 per child benefit, the $75,000 benefit cliff, and why dad cannot take the promotion and mom cannot take the part time job The Republican convention in Dallas: Erick's objection to the Attorney General and cabinet secretaries speaking at a partisan convention, plus LIV Golf filing Chapter 11
S15 · E160
September 8 · 36 min
S15 EP160: Hour 1 - The Cavalry Arrives
The post Labor Day panic has arrived, and Erick Erickson says the bad news is actually good news. He walks through the Real Clear Politics generic ballot average, Donald Trump's 36 to 39 percent approval, the two point Democratic polling bias, and the Senate map from Ken Paxton in Texas to Susan Collins in Maine, Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Mike Collins in Georgia. His verdict: Republicans probably lose seats, but there is no blue tsunami coming, and the billion dollars Trump is finally spending changes the math. Why Democrats always peak in summer polling, and why the averages settle after Labor Day Trump approval at 36 percent, the Iran war drag, and the AI worry numbers from Steve Kornacki Ken Paxton, the $10 million Texas rescue ad, and the Republican convention nobody may watch Susan Collins in Maine, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Michael Whatley in North Carolina, and national money pulling out of Georgia over Mike Collins The DSA conference, "the Democrats must be destroyed," and the GOP's 9/11 twenty fifth anniversary messaging opportunity
S15 · E160
September 8 · 36 min
S15 EP160: Hour 2 - The Diet Coke of Socialists
Erick Erickson takes apart the Trump administration's draft rule, championed by JD Vance, that would let married couples with a stay at home spouse collect roughly $9,000 per child from a Health and Human Services child care fund built in the 1990s to move single working mothers off welfare. His verdict: it is the Diet Coke of socialism, and you cannot beat the real thing. He walks the $75,000 income cliff, the promotions dad will never take, the marketable skills mom will never rebuild, and offers his own alternative: a $15,000 per child tax deduction with no cap, plus deducting local school property taxes for homeschool and private school families. The New York Times report on the JD Vance child care subsidy, the 870,000 families now on the program, and why redirecting money from single working mothers guts the whole point of 1996 welfare reform Congress never voted on it: Article I Section 8, the Necessary and Proper Clause, US v. Butler, and why judges will probably stop the end run around the legislature The $75,000 hard cap trap: two kids, $18,000 a year, a 10 percent raise dad cannot accept, and a couple stranded at 50 with no promotions and no marketable skills Erick's alternative to turning parents into welfare queens: a $15,000 per child tax deduction through age 18 (21 in college), no cap, plus deducting school property taxes for private and homeschool families Kevin Roberts and the post liberal Heritage Foundation, Lawrence Jones on Fox and Friends, the EBT card nanny state hypocrisy, and Reagan's "a choice, not an echo" Plus the Rams and 49ers flying 15,000 miles for a 10:35 a.m. Friday game in Melbourne, and the NFL's bet on supersonic travel
S15 · E160
September 8 · 36 min
S15 EP160: Hour 3 - Hormuz Blockade Squeezes Tehran
Erick Erickson walks through the Wall Street Journal report that Iran's oil dollars are drying up, with no Iranian crude crossing the US Navy blockade since mid July and offshore stockpiles feeding China down from 90 million barrels to 29 million. His tell that the regime itself is cracking: the Ayatollah has had two London houses foreclosed on for missed mortgage payments, and the Iranian army is going unpaid and hungry. He also unpacks the new OECD PISA study showing a worldwide learning recession, and keeps taking apart the JD Vance stay at home parent child care subsidy. Wall Street Journal on the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Kpler tanker tracking, the collapsing Iranian rial, and the Ayatollah's two foreclosed London houses Victoria Coates on Fox, Scott Bessent on Operation Economic Outcast, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright on nine million barrels a day still transiting the Strait Why the IRGC and the regular Iranian army are different animals, and why hungry, armed, unpaid soldiers are how the Shah fell to Khomeini The OECD PISA study: reading down 28 points, math down 22 points since 2015, kids using AI to cheat rather than learn, and a Dark Ages comparison from Rome to the monasteries to the Renaissance More on the JD Vance child care plan turning stay at home moms into welfare queens while punishing married moms who work, plus callers on property tax exemptions for modest homes and whether Vance or Marco Rubio gets 2028 China's deflation, mortgage and real estate crisis, the sanctioned Turkish bank, and Canada helping on Iran even in the middle of a trade war
S15 · E159
September 4 · 36 min
S15 EP159: Hour 1 - Jobs Report, Interest Rates, and the GOP
Erick Erickson defends the Lindsay Clancy jury against the online mob, walking through the one quirk of Massachusetts law that almost nobody on social media understands: Massachusetts is the only state where the prosecution must prove a defendant was sane beyond a reasonable doubt. Then the August jobs report lands at 162,000 new jobs, roughly three times what economists expected, and Erick explains why the good news may force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates instead of cutting them. Plus the Politico scoop on Republicans who do not want Donald Trump campaigning in their districts, and the CNN KFile dig on democratic socialist candidate Will Lawrence. Lindsay Clancy verdict: why the Massachusetts insanity standard, not jury solidarity, drove the outcome, and why Erick expects a mistrial and a retrial on manslaughter alone The exact Massachusetts model jury instruction on criminal responsibility, read on air, and why Erick says the Commonwealth could not meet it August jobs report: 162,000 jobs against expectations of 53,000, unemployment steady at 4.1 percent, upward revisions to June and July, and Kevin Hassett calling it four standard deviations above the mean The catch nobody is touting: wage growth still trails inflation, gas and diesel prices keep climbing, and tariffs are eating the raises Why maximum employment frees the Federal Reserve to fight inflation, and why the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P all fell on good news Politico beats the Journal, Post, Axios and Fox to the story: battleground Republicans telling Trump's team to stay out of their districts, and Erick's fix, run against the Democratic socialists instead
S15 · E159
September 4 · 36 min
S15 EP159: Hour 2 - Football is Back
Erick Erickson opens football season with Ben Sasse's Wall Street Journal case for high school football as one of the last institutions still forming young men, then makes his own argument for keeping politics out of sports, out of movies, and out of your hamburger. He plays the viral supercut of the words Candace Owens cannot pronounce, takes a caller on Reza Pahlavi and whether the exiled Shah's son can actually lead a post-theocratic Iran, and reads new intelligence reporting that a more confident Iran is preparing to escalate around the Strait of Hormuz. Plus the Rick Jackson ad out of Georgia that Erick says shows Republicans exactly how to win this year. Ben Sasse in the Wall Street Journal: family, religion, work and war have faded, and why football is the character forming institution boys have left Why the NFL recovered from the Colin Kaepernick years and the NBA and WNBA did not, plus Steak n Shake MAGA meals and the politicization of the Odyssey movie, restaurants and food The Candace Owens mispronunciation account: bureaucracy, monstrosity, caricature, statute of limitations, price gouging, and the cream of the crop Caller question on Reza Pahlavi, the exiled Shah's son, his coalition of Iranian democratic parties, and why he still needs Washington and Israel to destabilize the regime first New York Times and Politico intelligence reporting on a more confident Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, 30 to 40 boats a night, 300 percent inflation, Patriot missile shortages, and unconfirmed reports of new launches Rick Jackson's Georgia governor ad: 800 foster kids whose college tuition he paid, why Erick was told not to raise it in the primary, and why running on your own record beats running on an endorsement

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