The Double Pivot: Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary

Mike Goodman and Michael Caley

Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary with hosts Mike Goodman and Michael Caley

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27 episodes
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Avg 36 min
English

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Today · 41 min
Is the Meat Wall Cooked? and other early season observations
We take a look at the early season data on set pieces and whether things feel different because they are different, or whether set pieces are still due for a big comeback. And then it's on to Arsenal: are they just the same? Liverpool, United and Chelsea: why aren't they good yet? And whether there's anyone in the Premier League who can take advantage of the early stumbles of some of the richest clubs. Support the show
Wednesday · 34 min
The Champions League Top 10
We talk briefly about some of the very best teams in the world and why Barcelona and Real Madrid are currently rated about equally with Arsenal, PSG and Bayern Munich, why City look one step back, and then we work through the more complicated questions at the back of the top 10: Liverpool or Inter Milan? United or Como, Roma, Atletico, or Dortmund? Plus a little bit on why the draw did not benefit the Premier League this season. Support the show
September 4 · 37 min
Transfer Roundup Part I: City's Midfield Rebuild, Bruno at Arsenal
Manchester City spent an enormous amount of money on three midfielders. We have already sufficiently raved about Elliot Anderson, but we are nonplussed about Enzo Fernandez, an excellent player whose usage has been notably odd over time and who might not be a 100 million pound player unless that changes. Ayyoub Bouaddi as a signing for the future. And we rave about Bruno Guimaraes at Arsenal. Also this is secretly a podcast about Nicolo Barella. Support the show
September 1 · 33 min
Xabi Alonso's Chelsea Might Be Crazy
Two exceptionally strange opening matches for Chelsea, two back and forth high scoring matches where Chelsea mostly conceded possession with a lead, but both deserved wins, and both featuring a new thing under the sun in a "box and one" buildup structure. We walk through what we've seen so far, whether it is anything or not, how it fits within Xabi Alonso's career and ideas, and talk about how Morgan Rogers' new role may work and whether there was ever room for Enzo Fernandez here. Support the show
August 27 · 44 min
Premier League Week One: Spreadsheets vs Eye Test
Caley didn't watch the games because he was off the grid. Goodman managed to watch despite being in the middle of a move. But as befits the whole deal of this podcast, it isn't so much about how these two methods disagree as piecing together the stories of the matches from the data and the eye test. Talking about Hull City - Manchester United, Manchester City - Bournemouth, Newcastle - Liverpool, Brentford - Tottenham, Fulham - Chelsea and Everton - Palace. Support the show
August 17 · 51 min
Premier League Season Preview Draft: Part I
The Double Pivot Premier League season preview draft is back. We draft our top ten. All the big teams are here. Caley cheated and built a toy model and it has some unexpected picks. We discuss why few of these teams have overwhelmed us this summer but we expect a highly competitive top of the table in 26-27. Support the show
August 14 · 37 min
Premier League Dominance? Private Equity In Europe? The Uncertain New Football Economy
Why have so many of the top signings this summer been within the Premier League? Why does the Premier League keep winning the Europa and Conference Leagues? The reason is simply that the Premier League has more money and the reason for that is the massive (and reasonably equitably-split) Premier League television contract. We talk through what has changed and when it changed, and how this connects to the increasing trend of private equity ownership, and what might be next for the football economy. Support the show
August 4 · 43 min
Infantin-Out? The FIFA private equity scandal and what comes next
Huge FIFA news post World Cup as Gianni Infantino attempted to sell off shares in the World Cup in a very dubious deal, saw it collapse amid stern resistance from UEFA, and is suddenly facing a potential vote of no confidence. Is it possible reform is actually coming to FIFA? What does UEFA actually want? What would a new majority coalition look like? We go into the history of Havelange's and Blatter's FIFA, the ways that FIFA has always blended cutthroat capitalism and old-school corruption, the long-running FIFA-UEFA cold war, and the wholly unclear current state of play among the FAs. Support the show
July 31 · 39 min
Yan Diomande and Real Madrid, and Why the Transfer Market Seems Clogged
All the big attacking signings are delayed, and we have a charming metaphor to describe it. What would it mean if Real Madrid finalize the Yan Diomande signing, where will he fit in their system, who will he displace, and will this finally get the transfer market moving again? Plus a little bit on Bradley Barcola. Support the show
July 21 · 29 min
World Cup Final Thoughts, or Spain: Pretty Good Team
One more proper World Cup podcast before it's gone. We break down how Spain dominated this match front to the back, the seven minutes where they didn't and how that brief run by Argentina explains what happened in the rest of the match, how often even a great performance like this goes unrewarded, Pedri's game, and more. Support the show
July 17 · 45 min
World Cup Semifinals: How Spain Won It, Did England Blow It?
The World Cup semifinals are complete and it's PADDLIN' 2, Our lyin' eyes 0. How Spain controlled the match tactically (and got a little lucky with a penalty), how if at all this makes us reconsider this France side, and then on to Argentina-England. Argentina-England. Hoo boy. The first 60 and final 40 minutes of this match were both journeys, and we break it all down, and ask where we would pinpoint England's and Tuchel's key errors. Support the show
July 12 · 30 min
World Cup Semifinals Preview: France-Spain
The two best teams at this World Cup -- certainly the two teams that have played the best soccer at this World Cup -- square off. We're worried it's going to be pretty bad. Support the show
July 8 · 31 min
The USMNT have a bad night in Seattle
The United States came up short in the round of 16, in the sense that they got boatraced by Belgium. We discuss the game, offer Rudi Garcia an apology, talk about what to say about a thoroughly bad game, and discuss the state of the USMNT talent pool and the occasional doubts one hears about player quality. Support the show
July 4 · 40 min
Round of 16 Preview, Part 3: Spain-Portugal and USA-Belgium
The Round of 16 preview extravaganza continues with the big matches on July 6. How Portugal's tactical system continues to try and fail to work around Ronaldo's limitations, what we want to see from Spain in this match, the importance of the Spanish fullbacks, and then of course the USMNT preview. How Pochettino will likely approach this match against an opponent that will seek to control possession, why Jeremy Doku terrifies us and how Belgium's attacking band is supposed to work, and the inexplicable tactical decisions of Rudi Garcia and how they could give the US an advantage. The other Round of 16 previews, are on the Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/c/doublepivot Support the show
June 30 · 49 min
Bracket Breakdown
The dynamics of the entire bracket, from Argentina's cakewalk to the interesting but different tests for Brazil and England, to Spain's good path and their fitness and tactical issues, a little model breakdown on Colombia, why the draw for African teams means we shouldn't read too much into the results, and more. Support the show
June 26 · 36 min
Limited World Cup Drama, Raphinha Out, Tuchelball, and More
The World Cup continues and so we did more podcasting about it. Support the show
June 23 · 47 min
World Cup Potpourri: FIFA Victorious, The Ronaldo Problem, Spuruguay and More
There's so much football and we are not happy about recognizing FIFA for it. But we've got what's wrong with Portugal (mostly Ronaldo), what's gone right for Ivory Coast (both players and coaching), Caley explains "Spuruguay," and we try to figure out Belgium. The Henry segment on Ronaldo: https://bsky.app/profile/dreyesceron.bsky.social/post/3moj2hwalms2e Support the show
June 19 · 29 min
In Which We Rave About England
England won 4-2 over Croatia, dominated the xG, and generally looked like a real football team and a real World Cup contender. We have some slightly different takes on the first half, we get into questions about the PADDLIN' model and England, and of course Marouane Fellaini is discussed in some depth. Support the show
June 16 · 35 min
How to Watch Soccer Like a Nerd
Mike has written a World Cup 2026 update to his classic Grantland piece about how to watch soccer. We discuss expected goals and how to use statistics well and poorly, we talk tactics and "flex back threes" and "five guys" and "rest defense" and how it all goes back to Pep Guardiola at Bayern Munich, and a little bit on the economics of the game and why that explains the coaches at the 2026 World Cup. Read Goodman in 2026: https://www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/fifa-2026-world-cup-expected-goals-analytics-soccer-nerd/ And see Goodman from 2014: https://grantland.com/features/how-to-watch-the-world-cup-like-a-true-soccer-nerd/ Support the show
June 13 · 30 min
USMNT 4, Paraguay 1
A big win for the United States Men's National Team (USMNT, pronounced us-mnt) that validated belief in Mauricio Pochettino and the system he built for these players. We get into why the xG isn't quite as impressive as one might expect, the distinctive tactics you could see in action during the game, and just how far out over skis one might reasonably get after this match. For more on the Double Pivot's PADDLIN' World Cup model, see our YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/@DoublePivotPod And the Expecting Goals model write-up (with live updating on the way): https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/world-cup-projections-introducing Support the show

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