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The Diff

Byrne Hobart

The Diff is a newsletter exploring the technologies, companies, and trends that are making the future high-variance. Posts range from in-depth company profiles, applied financial theory, strategy breakdowns and macroeconomics.

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29 episodes
weekly
Avg 13 min
English

Episodes 29

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Yesterday · 13 min
Doing Business in the Dark Forest
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Doing Business in the Dark Forest (06:30) - Stock-Based Compensation (07:53) - Infra (08:58) - Balance Sheets (10:46) - An Ownership Society (12:15) - The Sonic Boom of Trust
- Transcript
- Chapters
October 12 · 12 min
The Super-Rich as Financial Sin-Eaters
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Super-Rich as Financial Sin-Eaters (06:45) - Adversarial Adoption (07:52) - Rates (08:39) - Scale (09:53) - Talking Your Book (10:43) - Revenue
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- Chapters
October 5 · 9 min
Life with Nonzero Interest Rates
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Life with Nonzero Interest Rates (05:18) - Stimulus (05:55) - Ads (06:38) - Gambling (07:31) - Acqui-hires (08:46) - IPOs
- Transcript
- Chapters
September 28 · 10 min
How Far in the Future Should You Be Trying to Live?
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - How Far in the Future Should You Be Trying to Live? (04:42) - Spillover Effects (05:36) - Frictional Costs (06:22) - Airgaps (08:04) - Poaching and Context (09:05) - Open Weight
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- Chapters
September 21 · 43 min
Forward Deployed
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Forward Deployed (37:12) - Felonybench (38:59) - Frontier Capabilities (40:10) - SEO (41:06) - Company Demographic Pyramids (42:17) - Fighting for Inference
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September 14 · 14 min
The Economics and Politics of Pacing the Frontier
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Economics and Politics of Pacing the Frontier (06:37) - Reflexive Funding (07:57) - Insider Trades (08:56) - Reference Implementation (10:40) - Margins (12:47) - Law Enforcement
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- Chapters
September 8 · 13 min
Staying Calibrated
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Staying Calibrated (07:16) - Transparency (08:35) - Disclosure (09:20) - Credit Ratings (10:58) - AI Jobs (12:15) - Branding Inference
- Transcript
- Chapters
August 31 · 10 min
The Surprisingly Weak IPO-Housing Effect
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Surprisingly Weak IPO-Housing Effect (06:28) - Bottlenecks (07:32) - More Bottlenecks (08:22) - Disjoint Models (09:06) - Aligning Incentives (09:40) - Momentum
- Transcript
- Chapters
August 24 · 13 min
Ad-Supported Platforms are a Unique Antitrust Problem
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Ad-Supported Platforms are a Unique Antitrust Problem (08:38) - Brittle Buyers (09:17) - Rates (10:32) - Substitution Effects (11:12) - Demand (11:50) - Trades
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- Chapters
August 17 · 12 min
Financial Entrepreneurship in the Indexing Era
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Financial Entrepreneurship in the Indexing Era (07:24) - Easy As (08:27) - Missing Estimates (09:18) - Oil (09:58) - Off-Balance Sheet (11:07) - Turnover
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- Chapters
August 10 · 15 min
FP&A as the Telemetry and Counterespionage
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - FP&A as the Telemetry and Counterespionage (09:21) - 0.5x AI (11:46) - Media Incentives (12:31) - Infrastructure (13:23) - Perks (14:02) - Externalities
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- Chapters
August 3 · 12 min
Who Hedges Where?
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Who Hedges Where? (06:49) - Ads for Bots (07:43) - Authenticity (08:35) - The AI Race (09:32) - Priority Disputes (10:48) - Mission
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- Chapters
July 27 · 18 min
What We Periodically Relearn About Rent Control
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - What We Periodically Relearn About Rent Control (12:54) - Backstops (14:42) - Complements and Substitutes (15:36) - Personality Hire (16:29) - Commoditization (17:04) - IPOs
- Transcript
- Chapters
July 20 · 10 min
The Lots-of-Low-Satiety-Calories Business Isn't What it Used to Be
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Has AI Art Been Tried? (04:38) - Pricing (05:17) - Rewrites (06:46) - Distribution (07:35) - Trading Your PA (08:44) - Managed Markets
- Transcript
- Chapters
July 13 · 10 min
The Bad Apple Problem
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Has AI Art Been Tried? (04:38) - Pricing (05:17) - Rewrites (06:46) - Distribution (07:35) - Trading Your PA (08:44) - Managed Markets
- Transcript
- Chapters
July 6 · 14 min
Cultural Stasis? Or Just Rising Budgets, a Limited Supply of Good Movie Release Dates, and the Kelly Criterion?
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Cultural Stasis? Or Just Rising Budgets, a Limited Supply of Good Movie Release Dates, and the Kelly Criterion? (09:20) - MTurk, RIP (10:42) - The Economist Cover Indicator (12:15) - AI Cycles (13:13) - Narratives (14:13) - Intrusions
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June 29 · 12 min
The Mythical Agent-Minute
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Mythical Agent-Minute (07:08) - AI, Globalization, and Comparative Advantage in Lobbying (08:16) - Media M&A (09:41) - Retaliatory Tariffs (10:15) - Capex (10:52) - Pivots
- Transcript
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June 22 · 14 min
Blind Extrapolation as a Powerful Force in Finance
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Blind Extrapolation as a Powerful Force in Finance (07:50) - Midjourney Medical (11:10) - Chips (12:02) - Financial Engineering (12:39) - Rigged Games (13:30) - Reality is the Complement
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June 15 · 17 min
What Does it Mean to Have a Trillion Dollars?
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - What Does it Mean to Have a Trillion Dollars? (09:47) - Anthropic (11:04) - Mean and Variance (12:17) - Fragmentation (13:37) - Guidance (15:58) - Slightly-Heterodox Center-X
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June 8 · 11 min
It's Maturity Transformation All The Way Down
This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - It's Maturity Transformation All The Way Down (06:17) - Weather (07:19) - Adverse Selection (08:33) - Compute, and P/S Ratios (09:46) - Software PE (10:48) - Automation and Utilization
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