The DeFi Report

The Case for a New Crypto Bull Market

Bitcoin just surged 22% in 48 hours, and Mike’s outlook has flipped with it. Mike and Ryan break down why the cycle lows may now be in, what the latest onchain data says about a potential early bull phase, and how Treasury intervention in long-term yields changed the macro setup. They also cover Strategy’s $1.6B Bitcoin war chest, the return of crypto animal spirits, and the key $81.8K level that could confirm the next bull market. ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:14 Regime Shift Begins 2:11 Bullish Catalyst Emerges 6:59 Reading Bitcoin Market Structure 12:20 Capitulation Metrics and Volume 17:01 Crypto Reflexivity Returns 19:58 Treasury Buybacks and Yields 28:56 The 1940s Playbook 35:02 Debasement Trade Reassessment 39:41 Key Bitcoin Levels 42:09 Portfolio Goes Risk On 45:29 Early Bull, Still Active ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Is AI Entering the "DAT Season" Stage of the Cycle?

🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- AI may be entering its late-cycle phase as Wall Street finds new ways to keep the boom funded. Mike and Ryan unpack Nvidia’s $500 billion financing push, why it echoes crypto’s DAT season, and whether leverage is extending the AI trade or creating hidden risk. They also cover Treasury buybacks, Bitcoin’s $60K–$65K buy wall, and where Mike sees the next “fat pitch” opportunity. ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:13 AI Trade Setup 3:12 On-Chain Milestone 6:57 Bitcoin Buy Wall 10:59 Treasury Buyback Shift 14:14 NVIDIA’s Credit Machine 25:24 AI Bull vs Bear 30:21 Real Yields Surge 36:03 Bear Market Outlook 39:04 The Next Fat Pitch ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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QE Lite, Rising Yields & Bitcoin’s Final Bear Market Test

Bitcoin may be entering the final stretch of the bear market, but macro risks are starting to build. Mike and Ryan break down the Treasury’s new “QE Lite” play, why 30-year yields are breaking to 20-year highs, and how intervention in the yen could ripple across global markets. They also cover gold’s latest surge, Bitcoin’s key cycle levels, and whether one final risk-off move could send BTC toward deep value territory before the next expansion. ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:14 Bear Market Finale Setup 3:33 On-Chain Cohorts & Capitulation 10:09 Weak Volumes, Miner Selling 13:30 Inflation, Yen, & Gold 17:53 Treasury Yields Break Higher 26:04 Yen And Nasdaq Divergence 32:11 Bitcoin Price Scenarios Ahead 38:20 Pump Thesis & Cycle Upside ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq: Is This Rally a Trap?

The Nasdaq has nearly erased a 10% selloff, but the bond market may be telling a very different story. Mike and Ryan break down why the Fed may be letting rising long-term yields tighten financial conditions, whether the rally in equities is built to last, and why Bitcoin may have already bottomed relative to the Nasdaq even if both markets still have more pain ahead. They also cover Bitcoin’s cycle metrics, Strategy’s latest BTC sales, and the possibility of one final move toward $55K before the next major buying opportunity. ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:21 NASDAQ vs Bitcoin 2:04 Market Whipsaw Explained 6:32 Bitcoin Cycle Check 13:16 Strategy’s Bitcoin Stress 16:06 Bitcoin Dominance Shift 22:39 Bitcoin Versus QQQ 26:43 Fed Lets Yields Run 34:39 Staying Patient Into Year-End ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Can the Economy Handle Rate Hikes?

The Fed may be forced to hike into an economy that looks strong on the surface but is weakening underneath. Mike and Ryan unpack the fault lines in labor, housing, savings, and credit, why the AI trade may be rolling over, and how one final risk-off move could send Bitcoin toward $55K before the next major buying opportunity. ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:17 Fed Hike Shock Ahead 2:36 Market Signals Tighten 6:37 Fed Independence Questioned 11:10 Economy Under Pressure 16:32 Housing Fault Lines 21:14 Dollar Strength Warning 24:17 After the Sell-Off 28:40 Global Liquidity Outlook 31:00 Portfolio Patience ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is 80% Over? One More Lower Low Coming?

Bitcoin may be 80% through its bear market, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack weak demand, rising macro pressure, the risk of one more lower low, and why $63K and $73K now matter most. ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 3:27 Fair Value and Capitulation 8:10 Time-Based Selloff 13:07 Searching for Demand 16:13 Miners Under Pressure 18:45 Strategy and Saylor 21:25 Iran and Oil Risk 28:28 AI Speculation Peaks 34:06 Macro or On-Chain? 37:04 Bitcoin Levels to Watch 41:25 TDR Updates and Outlook ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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TDR Pro’s 1st-Year Portfolio Audit: Wins, Learnings & the Current Portfolio

Mike opens the books on TDR Pro’s first year: a portfolio up 13% through a crypto bear market, 53% realized gains, and a timely risk-off call before Bitcoin fell 45%. Ryan and Mike audit the wins, misses, and process behind the performance. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-yt https://thedefireport.io/friends https://obsidian.md/ https://obsidian.md/clipper https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 5:12 Portfolio Goals and Sleep Well 10:46 Realized Gains and Bitcoin Alpha 13:50 Unrealized Gains in Bear Market 17:30 Lessons From the Bull Run 23:34 Misses, Lessons, and Flexibility 31:01 Current Portfolio Sectors 36:52 Using TDR Pro With AI 42:57 Transparency and Performance Updates 46:33 Final Grade for the Year ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Is the Bitcoin Low Really In?

Bitcoin bounced, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack the missing coin-rotation signal, weak ETF and spot demand, Saylor’s BTC sale, and why $50K remains in play. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:14 Bitcoin Low Or Not? 5:06 Trench Revival In Crypto 6:55 Why Mike Still Sees Lower 12:59 The Coin Rotation Debate 19:31 ETF Demand And Volume Check 23:52 Saylor, Clarity, And Zcash 34:25 Closing Bets And Performance Report ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Bitcoin’s Green Light…Buy Now or Wait for One More Flush?

Bitcoin is back near historic buy-zone levels, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack the green-light indicators, the risk of one final flush, and what past cycles say about future returns. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-yt https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:22 Bitcoin Buy Now Debate 4:57 Key Cycle Indicators 8:39 Rotation Still Missing 14:50 Macro Risks Ahead 27:02 Patience And Returns 30:24 Price Levels To Watch 35:11 Drawdown And Outlook 36:48 More Reports Coming ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Why does BTC continue to track the 4-Year Cycle?

Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may look arbitrary, but the data tells a deeper story. Ryan and Mike break down how leverage, credit, stablecoins, DeFi loans, miners, and Strategy drive crypto’s recurring booms and busts, and whether one final domino still needs to fall. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 5:21 Bitcoin’s Capital Base 15:00 Leverage Drives the Premium 20:07 Stablecoins and VC Flow 23:08 On-Chain Loan Cycles 26:08 Perps and Treasury Leverage 32:14 Deleveraging and Hidden Risks 34:29 Miner Capitulation 37:12 Why Four Years? 40:08 ETH and Solana Positioning ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Bitcoin’s Bottom Case, ETF Outflows & The No-Buyers Problem

Bitcoin may be in the buy zone, but the demand signal still looks weak. David and Mike debate whether the bottom is already in, why ETF outflows and muted buyer interest matter, what realized losses and realized cap are signaling, and whether BTC needs one more painful reset before the next real opportunity. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-yt https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 2:01 Pain, Patience, & Cycles 5:03 Shallower Drawdowns? 7:22 ETF Flows and Demand 9:34 Saylor’s Canary 15:32 Realized Losses Review 23:00 Bitcoin Versus Nasdaq 25:23 AI Bubble Meets Crypto 28:37 Oil, War, & Inflation 33:25 Hyperliquid’s Market Split 38:28 $LIT & $WLD Momentum 40:42 Pro Portfolio Playbook ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Has BTC Entered the "Buy Zone?"

Has Bitcoin entered the buy zone, or is one final flush still ahead? Mike and Ryan break down why BTC under $67K looks attractive for long-term buyers, what realized losses and top-buyer cohorts reveal about seller exhaustion, and how AI weakness, inflation, and rising odds of Fed hikes could shape the next major move. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-yt https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:39 False Bull Flag Revisited 5:32 Tracking Deep Value Signals 11:04 Strategy Fear & Unwind 18:09 Who Is Buying Bitcoin? 22:15 Signs of Seller Exhaustion 25:08 Bitcoin Leads the Nasdaq 26:33 AI Boom Or Bust 35:58 Macro Risks & Inflation 43:20 TDR Portfolio Strategy 48:50 Buying Bitcoin Under 67K ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Bitcoin’s $60K Test Just Got More Serious

Bitcoin is testing a critical zone, but this bear market is starting to look different. Mike and David break down why $60K may be the next major level, how Strategy’s first BTC sale and STRC stress could shake market confidence, why ETF outflows are piling up, and why assets like Zcash, HYPE, Lighter, and NEAR are breaking out while Bitcoin weakens. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:22 Crypto Cycle Turning 4:42 Bitcoin Near Key Support 9:16 STRC Signals Stress 20:42 ETF Outflows Mount 23:58 Robinhood & Portfolio Bets 28:49 DeFi Builders Gain Ground 31:54 Bullish on Crypto Alpha 35:24 Meme Coins Still Stick 35:46 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin’s Unfinished Pain & Altcoin Hype or Head Fake?

Bitcoin is stuck in a quiet range, but the signals are getting louder. Mike and Ryan break down why the mini altcoin rally may be a head fake, what realized losses suggest about Bitcoin’s unfinished pain, why ETF outflows and Saylor’s bond move matter, and the macro risks that could force another leg lower. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 3:46 Altcoin Hype or Head Fake? 13:06 Measuring Bitcoin Bear Market Pain 22:50 ETF Outflows & Whale Selling 29:25 Iran, Inflation, & Macro Risks 37:35 Bitcoin Levels and Summer Positioning 42:55 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Signs of a Cycle Bottom?

Bitcoin may have already hit its cycle low, but the confirmation signal still hasn’t fired. Mike and Ryan break down the bull case for a $60K bottom, why realized cap and supply in profit matter, what top-buyer cohorts are still signaling, and how inflation, rising yields, and a potential Fed hike could force one more drop. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt The Watch List: Zcash (ZEC) https://thedefireport.io/research/the-watch-list-zcash-zec ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:16 Realized Cap Signals 12:17 Supply Profit Check 14:11 RSI & Cycle Lows 18:01 Coins Still Need Rotation 20:51 Inflation & Yields 31:00 Key Levels & Scenarios 34:17 Altcoin Rotation Watch 36:52 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Momentum is slowing as macro risks are rising

Bitcoin just closed above a key bear market resistance level, but Mike still isn’t ready to call a regime shift. Ryan and Mike break down why this rally looks stretched, what $79K, $82.7K, and $85K are signaling, how weak spot volume and rising macro risk could slow momentum, and why June may be the real test for bulls. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:45 Bear Market Symmetry 6:00 Comparing Past Cycles 14:05 Who’s Selling at 80K? 19:23 Weak Market Conditions 23:10 Momentum Starts Fading 27:37 June’s Historical Weakness 29:12 Key Bitcoin Price Levels 32:40 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Are we still in a bear market rally?

Bitcoin just completed the longest bear market rally of the last two cycles, but under the hood, the data still looks eerily similar to 2022. Mike and Ryan break down the battle between shorts and spot buyers, why $85K may decide the market, what ETF flows and Saylor’s bid are really signaling, and the setup that could trap both bulls and bears. ---- 📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE https://bankless.cc/Galaxy ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.cc/rss https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 3:03 Market Dynamics and Institutional Influence 5:53 Trader Sentiment & Market Positioning 10:04 Spot Market Analysis 15:10 ETF Flows & Institutional Demand 19:06 Market Structure & Cycle Analysis 21:09 Bitcoin's Correlation & NASDAQ 26:05 Critical Price Zones for Bitcoin 30:12 Mike's Investment Strategy & Market Outlook 33:17 The Marshmallow Test 34:17 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Still Patient? Why This Bitcoin Rally May Be on Borrowed Time

Bitcoin has the “perfect” bull setup, record shorts, aggressive squeezes, and billions in buying, yet it still can’t break $80K. Ryan and Mike unpack why that disconnect matters, from weak spot demand and short-term holder behavior to fading liquidity tailwinds, and what past cycles suggest comes next. They also break down the key level that decides the market, and how to position if this rally is on borrowed time. ---- 📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKING https://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 3:57 Bitcoin Market Dynamics 6:51 Short-Term Holder Insights 15:22 Fed Policy Implications 19:31 Liquidity and Economic Outlook 27:44 Crypto Portfolio Strategy 30:09 Navigating Altcoin Markets 38:47 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Why This Rally May Be Too Early

Bitcoin is pushing back toward $80K, but the underlying data still looks like a classic bear market setup. Mike and Ryan break down why “hot money” from the 2025 top hasn’t fully rotated yet, how past cycles suggest more downside or time is needed, and why dip buyers may be stepping in too early. They also explain what real bottom formation looks like onchain and why this rally could be more about positioning than a true shift in trend. ---- 📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKING https://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:44 Mike's Evolving Thinking on Altcoins 5:12 Analyzing Bitcoin's Cost Basis Data 8:11 Understanding Bitcoin's Cohorts 10:08 Exploring New & Old Money Patterns 14:20 Comparing Cohorts Across Cycles 18:09 Key Takeaways from the Cohort Analysis 26:33 Portfolio Moves & Strategy Discussion 32:07 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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The Bottom Is Not In! Why We Get 4-Year Cycles

Bitcoin is up 19% from the February lows, but Mike argues this still looks more like a bear market bounce than a true bottom. He and Ryan break down why weak ETF flows, soft onchain activity, fading risk appetite, and rolling liquidity still do not look like the kind of setup that usually marks a durable low. They also map out the key BTC levels that would force a change in view, and what real capitulation tends to look like when the cycle finally turns. ---- 📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKING https://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne ---- 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE https://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/ https://thedefireport.io/ https://x.com/the_defi_report https://x.com/JustDeauIt ---- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:50 Polling Investor Sentiment 4:22 The Four-Year Cycle Explained 13:02 Market Dynamics and Investor Psychology 17:17 Examining Current Liquidity Conditions 27:31 Fiscal Policy and Its Impact 29:07 On-Chain Analysis of Bitcoin 39:10 Understanding Market Trends and Patterns 44:04 Closing & Disclaimers ---- Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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