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The Chuck ToddCast

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The Chuck ToddCast is back! If you're looking for smart, no-nonsense political conversation, you've come to the right place. The Chuck ToddCast goes beyond the headlines, featuring conversations with top reporters, insiders, and newsmakers from D.C. to the heartland. No scripts, no spin—just real discussions about what’s shaping our politics and why it matters.

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  • August 10 · 2 hr 1 min

    Chuck’s Commentary - The Rule Of Law Is Now Whatever Trump Says It Is + Why Democratic Voters Are Rewarding Progressives

    Chuck Todd opens with the Greenland oil expedition, an episode so strange it borders on parody: an American oil company drilling in defiance of another country's laws, with Trump's blessing, and — the detail that breaks the brain — Dr. Phil hired to document the whole thing. It's a fitting overture for a week in which the Senate confirmed Todd Blanche as Attorney General 50-49 at four in the morning before fleeing town for recess, with only Collins and Murkowski defecting. Chuck admits he was wrong; he never thought Blanche would actually get there. What galls him is the surrender it represents. Bill Cassidy's rationale — that Trump "needs someone to tell him no" — is laughable given that Blanche has said outright that the rule of law belongs to Trump and the DOJ won't be independent. John Cornyn's shrug that "there's nothing we can do to rein in the president" is, Chuck argues, the confession of a coward: senators possess the authority and simply refuse to use it, giving away what little leverage they had. The debate has now been reduced to whether the Attorney General is the people's lawyer or the president's. Then takes on the question of why Democratic voters keep rewarding progressives whose politics they don't actually share, and his answer is that half the Democratic electorate did not suddenly become socialist — they're furious about 2024, and specifically about leadership deciding the nominee for them. They didn't dislike Harris; they wanted a choice, and they'd watched the establishment coalesce around Biden in 2020 to produce a presidency that ended with Trump's return. Progressives are the only Democrats willing to say the party screwed up, and voters will give you enormous latitude on the cure if they trust your diagnosis. Chuck illustrates it with a Washington Post story about the Conn brass instrument factory in Ohio, bought by Trump-supporting, tariff-championing investor John Paulson and now closing as production moves offshore — where the disillusioned employees don't plan to vote at all, because they feel the system has failed them for decades. He believes the opening in American politics right now isn't centrism, it's breaking up an establishment that voters believe is more worried about losing donors than losing their votes. He wonders aloud whether the answer is a military leader — he's intrigued by retired General Chris Donahue, essentially Captain America on paper, pushed out by Trump and Hegseth, with credibility across the aisle. Americans are exhausted by being told the other half of the country is the bad guy, they're desperate for honesty and a reboot of a captured government, and the space is wide open for someone to fill it. But Chuck’s closing caution matters: the system is badly screwed up, and that still isn't a reason to burn it all down. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit two different but related events: the signing of the Social Security Act by FDR, and Richard Nixon announcing price and wage controls to combat inflation. Chuck argues that America has always flirted with socialism even if we call it by another name. He also answers listeners questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 00:30 Trump’s crazy Greenland oil adventure 01:15 Trump is just ignoring the laws of another country 01:45 Craziest detail is oil company hired Dr. Phil to document the expedition 02:15 Trump has gone out of his way to alienate European allies 02:45 Oprah gave us Dr. Oz & Dr. Phil… which is not a good thing 06:45 U.S. senate leaves town for recess after passing funding bill 07:15 Todd Blanche is now the confirmed AG for the United States 08:00 Republicans passed none of the things they said are priorities 09:00 GOP has a trifecta and still can’t get anything done 10:00 Was wrong about Blanche, didn’t think he’d actually get confirmed 10:45 Confirmed 50-49, not surprising Collins & Murkowski defected 11:45 Cassidy’s rationale was “Trump needs someone to tell him no” 12:15 Cassidy’s rationale is laughable 13:15 Even Bill Barr had a line he wouldn’t cross with Trump 14:45 The senate gave away what little leverage they have with Trump 16:00 John Cornyn says “there’s nothing we can do to rein in the president” 16:30 These Republicans are cowards, won’t exercise their authority* 17:00 These senators need to do their job 18:00 Blanche said the rule of law belongs to Trump, DOJ won’t be independent 19:00 Debate is now if AG is the people’s lawyer or the president’s lawyer 19:45 If he were alive, Trump would have nominated Roy Cohn 20:30 You don’t want presidents deciding who gets investigated 21:30 Trump got involved with Reflecting Pool vandal case THIS WEEK 22:30 Trump’s entire life has been about wearing people down 23:15 Republicans have politicized DOJ more than any previous admin 23:45 MAGA’s premise is that two wrongs do make a right 24:15 Does anybody in congress understand the constitution? 25:30 Confirming Blanche will cause more public distrust in DOJ 26:30 Founders never wanted the president to determine rule of law 27:00 Senate didn’t get crypto or college sports bill passed before recess 27:45 Republicans claim SAVE act is existential, didn’t pass it 28:45 Why do voters entertain progressives that don’t align with them? 29:15 Half the democratic electorate didn’t suddenly become socialist 30:30 Democratic voters are pissed off, think party messed up in 2024 31:00 Voters are mad leadership decided who the ‘24 nominee would be 31:30 Voters didn’t dislike Harris, but they wanted a choice 32:30 In 2020, the establishment coalesced around Biden 33:15 Biden’s presidency was a failure since it resulted in Trump returning 34:00 Progressives are the only Dems saying the party screwed up 35:30 Like Trump, the progressives are saying leadership is full of shit 36:15 Voters will give you latitude on the cure if they trust your diagnosis 37:00 WaPo story about Conn factory closing & private equity 38:00 Factory is in Ohio, been making brass instruments 38:45 Factory is closing and laying off all the employees 39:30 Conn was bought by John Paulson, Trump supporter who supports tariffs 40:30 Paulson is moving production offshore after arguing against it 42:00 Plant employees were completely disillusioned with politics 43:00 Employees feel like the system has left them down for decades, won’t vote 44:30 Romney’s loss was due to millions of white voters sitting out entirely 45:15 Trump’s appeal brought those voters back into the electorate 47:15 Voters reward candidates that can diagnose & call out their problems 48:00 Trump proved politically dormant voters can be reactivated 48:30 There’s always a third destination for voters… the couch 49:00 If the two parties don’t reform themselves, they risk being replaced 50:15 The opening isn’t centrism, it’s breaking up the establishment 51:15 Politics requires huge amounts of money, results in capture 52:15 Voters believe reps are more worried about losing donors than their vote 53:00 Competence and morality are not the same thing in politics 53:45 Leaders need to admit that they screwed everything up 54:30 Americans are desperate for a reset & are embracing revolutionaries 55:00 A military leader might be exactly what we need in next president 55:45 Intrigued by retired general Chris Donahue & his resume 56:45 Donahue is basically Captain America & was forced out by Trump & Hegseth 58:15 Someone like Donahue could have the credibility across the aisle 59:30 Politics won’t acknowledge failure if they think it helps the other side 1:00:00 Americans are desperate for honesty & morality in politics 1:01:15 It’s exhausting being told the other half of America is the bad guys 1:03:15 Voters want to preserve the Republic, but don’t trust the leadership 1:04:00 Voters want a reboot, and a government that isn’t captured 1:05:00 The political space is waiting for someone to fill this vacuum 1:06:00 The system is screwed up, but we shouldn’t burn it all down 1:11:00 ToddCast Time Machine - Where America embraces socialism 1:12:30 Socialist policies have come from presidents of both parties 1:13:45 FDR signs the Social Security Act - Nixon announces price & wage controls 1:14:45 Americans worry about prosperity, not ideological consistency 1:17:15 Capitalism was being questioned after the Great Depression 1:17:45 FDR wanted to repair, not replace capitalism 1:18:30 Social Security started as a much smaller program than it is today 1:19:15 Congress continued adding to the program over the years 1:21:15 America imposed price & wage controls during WW2 that went beyond Nixon 1:22:00 August 15, 1971 - Nixon announces price & wage controls 1:23:15 Nixon was desperate to stop inflation 1:24:15 Administration announced ceilings on meat prices, caused shortages 1:25:30 The controls were lifted right before the election 1:26:45 We have plenty of socialist policies called by another name 1:27:45 The policies give the sense of individual control 1:28:30 Americans are allergic to government control over their choices 1:29:15 Government under Trump is acquiring stakes in American companies 1:31:00 America has always been more socialist than we like to admit 1:32:45 Ask Chuck 1:33:00 Are college educated Republican voters on the journey leftward? 1:37:00 How should Abdul El-Sayed respond to racist & Islamophobic attacks? 1:45:30 Do candidates on the same ballot create measurable coattails? 1:50:00 Any chance Republicans voted for El-Sayed thinking he’d be easier to beat? 1:53:00 Was Pirro’s dropping of Reflecting Pool case an offramp for Trump? 1:56:00 How does an everyday person help make real political change? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • August 6 · 57 min

    Interview Only w/ Michael Russell Gunn - The Summit That Almost Ended Nuclear Weapons Forever

    Writer-director Michael Russell Gunn joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss The Brink of War, his feature debut about the 1986 Reykjavík Summit, hitting theaters August 14th with Jeff Daniels as Reagan, Jared Harris as Gorbachev, and J.K. Simmons as George Shultz. The film's origin story is its own remarkable piece of history: Gunn interviewed Shultz before his death in 2021, and Shultz handed him the declassified summit transcripts that became the script — the first scene between Reagan and Gorbachev is verbatim from that record. Gunn's argument for why this story matters right now is simple and pointed: these were two men with every reason to hate each other who sat in a room and tried to build a better world, at a moment when Americans have gotten very good at yelling and very bad at talking. He walks Chuck through what most people get wrong about Reykjavík — that Gorbachev was far younger than memory suggests, with no personal recollection of World War II (he brought the last WWII-era Soviet general with him to Iceland), that adversaries are always more politically divided internally than we perceive from the outside, and that the summit is simultaneously remembered as a triumph and a failure because a deal to eliminate every nuclear weapon on earth collapsed over a single word. Gunn notes that Americans instinctively read everything through game theory — winners and losers — while the Soviets understood the talks as one point on a longer arc, which is why Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare the whole thing a success. The conversation also works as a genuinely useful look inside how difficult political history gets made in Hollywood. Gunn explains that he assembled the actors and script first and only then went to a studio, that Simmons was hunting for a real challenge and nailed Shultz's accent on the first take, and that Daniels prepared by looping an hour of Reagan interviews through his headphones while biking around Chelsea, Michigan. He talks about the nervousness surrounding the idea of putting the two leaders alone in a room, the enormous goodwill Reagan carried into Reykjavík, and the fact that the whole world genuinely waited on that weekend with bated breath. Gunn is candid about the projects that didn't happen (he wanted to make a film about the Nunn-Lugar amendment and couldn't get it off the ground), the tradeoffs between film and limited series as formats, and why audiences have proven far hungrier for true history than the industry assumes. He and Chuck close on career advice — how Gunn broke in, why you have to "prove it" before anyone green-lights your dream project, and his observation that the things you don't get can end up mattering just as much as the things you do. And for anyone tempted to write off Reykjavík as a failure: the summit paved the way for the INF Treaty a year later, and the world's nuclear arsenals have since come down roughly 90%. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Michael Russell Gunn (The Brink of War) joins the Chuck ToddCast 02:30 How much time should elapse before telling a historical story? 04:45 How strong was Gorbachev viewed at the time of the summits? 05:30 We were saved by junior people/officers during the Cold War 06:00 We came very close to nuclear armageddon 07:30 Gorbachev is remembered as older than he actually was 08:30 Gorbachev didn’t have any memory of World War 2 09:30 Gorbachev brought last WW2 era general to Reykjavik 11:15 Adversaries are more politically divided than we perceive them 12:00 Reykjavik is considered both a success and a failure 12:30 There was a deal to get rid of every nuke, one word tanked it 13:00 Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare conference “great” 13:45 Reagan and Gorbachev built a relationship and some trust 14:15 This was one of the greatest diplomatic achievements in history 15:00 Americans view everything in a game theory context, winners & losers 15:30 Soviets viewed talks as one point in an arc 16:00 Transcripts of the meeting helped in creating the movie 18:00 Wanted to create a movie about the Nunn-Lugar amendment, but couldn’t 19:30 Visual of Reagan sitting across from Gorbachev was powerful 20:45 First scene between Reagan and Gorbachev was verbatim from transcript 22:30 There was something profound about their willingness to engage 24:15 There was nervousness about having them alone in a room 25:45 Reagan carried immense goodwill from Americans into Reykjavik 27:45 The whole world was waiting/waiting the summit with bated breath 28:30 How close were we to getting rid of nuclear weapons? 29:30 We did end up reducing nuclear arsenals by 90% 30:00 How did Jeff Daniels prepare to play Reagan? 31:45 Difficulty getting mainstream actors to participate in political history? 32:30 How’d you pull off getting a difficult topic approved and made? 33:15 Got the actors and script first, then went to the studio 34:00 JK Simmons was looking for a real challenge 35:15 George Shultz is an unsung hero of American history 36:00 JK Simmons nailed Shultz's accent on the first take 37:45 You’re given more breadth in film, but not more time to produce it 40:30 What is the better format to tell a story? Movie, limited series etc 43:00 Audiences have proven to be hungry for true history stories 45:15 What’s your dream project? 46:30 Need to “prove it” in order to get your dream project approved 49:15 Career advice? How did you break in and succeed in the business? 50:45 Things you don’t get can be just as important as what you do get See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • August 6 · 2 hr 41 min

    Full Episode - Biggest Takeaways From Tuesday’s Primaries + The Summit That Almost Ended Nuclear Weapons Forever

    Chuck Todd breaks down a primary night that scrambled the Senate map, starting in Michigan where Abdul El-Sayed edged Rep. Haley Stevens by roughly 20,000 votes — overcoming a nearly 8-to-1 spending disadvantage in what became the most expensive Senate primary in American history. He argues the narrow margin was actually the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed, and while Michigan is now a harder general election for Democrats against Mike Rogers, El-Sayed can absolutely win it. The most fascinating data point buried in the results: El-Sayed carried Grand Rapids and Kent County, a place that was solidly Republican for decades, evidence that there's a growing white progressive vote reshaping the Midwest. He pushes back on the sloppy way analysts label party factions, preferring "movement" versus "governing" factions to the usual progressive-moderate shorthand, notes that electability is always situational, and cautions that money makes races competitive without guaranteeing wins. He flags that Wisconsin is now the next big test, where nobody should assume Francesca Hong runs away with it. He also spotlights results that flew under the radar: pastor Adam Hamilton beat ten other Democrats to become nominee Republicans will struggle to caricature against Roger Marshall, meaning Kansas joins Iowa as a genuine pickup opportunity in a cycle where Trump's tariffs have wrecked agricultural states. Republicans, meanwhile, leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed on day one, which Chuck suspects could badly boomerang. He argues the GOP would love to be rid of Max Miller, whose personal issues could drag down Bernie Moreno, though even replacing him may cost the GOP three to five points — and closes on the surreal spectacle of a president losing an increasingly global war while obsessing over his reflecting pool: Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing publicly and another in court, Trump says she "choked" when really she choked on reality, and Chuck’s read is that Trump wanted a headline more than a case, may be lashing out precisely because he's lost control of everything else, is desperate to get out of Iran, and might find that handing over the Strait is the least humiliating option left — all while his grip on his own voters keeps weakening. Then, writer-director Michael Russell Gunn joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss The Brink of War, his feature debut about the 1986 Reykjavík Summit, hitting theaters August 14th with Jeff Daniels as Reagan, Jared Harris as Gorbachev, and J.K. Simmons as George Shultz. The film's origin story is its own remarkable piece of history: Gunn interviewed Shultz before his death in 2021, and Shultz handed him the declassified summit transcripts that became the script — the first scene between Reagan and Gorbachev is verbatim from that record. Gunn's argument for why this story matters right now is simple and pointed: these were two men with every reason to hate each other who sat in a room and tried to build a better world, at a moment when Americans have gotten very good at yelling and very bad at talking. He walks Chuck through what most people get wrong about Reykjavík — that Gorbachev was far younger than memory suggests, with no personal recollection of World War II (he brought the last WWII-era Soviet general with him to Iceland), that adversaries are always more politically divided internally than we perceive from the outside, and that the summit is simultaneously remembered as a triumph and a failure because a deal to eliminate every nuclear weapon on earth collapsed over a single word. Gunn notes that Americans instinctively read everything through game theory — winners and losers — while the Soviets understood the talks as one point on a longer arc, which is why Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare the whole thing a success. The conversation also works as a genuinely useful look inside how difficult political history gets made in Hollywood. Gunn explains that he assembled the actors and script first and only then went to a studio, that Simmons was hunting for a real challenge and nailed Shultz's accent on the first take, and that Daniels prepared by looping an hour of Reagan interviews through his headphones while biking around Chelsea, Michigan. He talks about the nervousness surrounding the idea of putting the two leaders alone in a room, the enormous goodwill Reagan carried into Reykjavík, and the fact that the whole world genuinely waited on that weekend with bated breath. Gunn is candid about the projects that didn't happen (he wanted to make a film about the Nunn-Lugar amendment and couldn't get it off the ground), the tradeoffs between film and limited series as formats, and why audiences have proven far hungrier for true history than the industry assumes. He and Chuck close on career advice — how Gunn broke in, why you have to "prove it" before anyone green-lights your dream project, and his observation that the things you don't get can end up mattering just as much as the things you do. And for anyone tempted to write off Reykjavík as a failure: the summit paved the way for the INF Treaty a year later, and the world's nuclear arsenals have since come down roughly 90%. Finally Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 most vulnerable Democratic seats… and couldn’t make it to 5. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:45 Review of Tuesday’s primary results 05:30 Michigan now harder for Dems in general, but El-Sayed can win 06:30 Wisconsin primary will be next big test of divide in Democratic party 08:45 Almost losing was the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed 09:30 Republicans don’t have many senate pickup opportunities 11:30 El-Sayed’s winning margin will be less than 20k votes 13:00 El-Sayed won the race in Grand Rapids 14:15 Kent county was solidly Republican for decades 16:30 The moderate/Gerald Ford Republicans aren’t voting for the GOP 17:30 There’s a growing white, progressive vote 19:45 In 2016 many people voted for Bernie out of protest for Clinton 20:30 Fascinating that Grand Rapids became a progressive stronghold 23:00 Analysts have a hard time characterizing factions inside parties 23:45 Prefer the label of “movement” vs. “governing” factions 24:45 Electability depends on the state and the situation 25:15 Money makes races more competitive, doesn’t guarantee victory 27:30 Progressives will need a crowded primary in 2028 to win 29:15 Don’t assume Francesca Hong will run away in Dem primary in WI 31:45 Big questions loom over Wisconsin primary 33:15 Some big results in Kansas flew under the radar 34:45 Founders didn’t want judges to be elected & subject to voters 35:15 Kansas rejected elections for state Supreme Court 36:30 On day one, Republicans leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed 37:00 The Islamophobia could boomerang on Republicans 37:45 Dems keep putting more senate seats in play, Kansas is now one 38:15 Adam Hamilton is pastor of huge church in Kansas\ 39:00 Hamilton has been a bridge builder, and beat 10 other Dems 39:45 Republicans will have a hard time making a caricature of Hamilton 40:30 Hamilton will have an unusual constituency going into the race 41:30 Roger Marshall has never had a stress test in a general election 43:00 Trump’s tariffs have caused huge problems in agriculture states 44:30 Iowa and Kansas are real pickup chances for Democrats 46:00 Missouri voters sent a message on the issue of taxes 46:45 Trump has long wanted to scrap income taxes 47:30 Voters reject a high sales tax replacing income tax 49:00 Tax credits for the KC Chiefs stadium was a political loser 49:30 Voters don’t like subsidizing rich people 50:00 More stories of Republican men behaving badly 50:15 Republicans would love to get rid of Max Miller 50:45 Trump always sides with the accused over the women 51:30 Max Miller has serious personal issues 52:45 Miller could have hurt Bernie Moreno politically 53:45 Multiple disgraced former members of congress in same race in Florida 55:00 Even if Miller is replaced, the party could face a 3-5 point penalty 55:45 Iran war is going sideways & Trump is worried about Reflecting Pool 56:30 Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing in public & another in court 57:15 Trump says she “choked”... she choked on reality 58:00 Trump doesn’t care the facts didn’t meet the case, wanted a headline 58:30 Maybe he’s angry because he’s lost control of everything else, like Iran 59:30 Trump is desperate to get out of the war 1:00:30 Chance of the war going global is uncomfortably high 1:01:30 Trump handing over the Strait might be least humiliating option 1:02:00 Reflecting pool may be the thing Trump feels he has control over 1:02:45 Trump’s grip on his voters has weakened 1:10:00 Michael Russell Gunn (The Brink of War) joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:12:30 How much time should elapse before telling a historical story? 1:14:45 How strong was Gorbachev viewed at the time of the summits? 1:15:30 We were saved by junior people/officers during the Cold War 1:16:00 We came very close to nuclear armageddon 1:17:30 Gorbachev is remembered as older than he actually was 1:18:30 Gorbachev didn’t have any memory of World War 2 1:19:30 Gorbachev brought last WW2 era general to Reykjavik 1:21:15 Adversaries are more politically divided than we perceive them 1:22:00 Reykjavik is considered both a success and a failure 1:22:30 There was a deal to get rid of every nuke, one word tanked it 1:23:00 Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare conference “great” 1:23:45 Reagan and Gorbachev built a relationship and some trust 1:24:15 This was one of the greatest diplomatic achievements in history 1:25:00 Americans view everything in a game theory context, winners & losers 1:25:30 Soviets viewed talks as one point in an arc 1:26:00 Transcripts of the meeting helped in creating the movie 1:28:00 Wanted to create a movie about the Nunn-Lugar amendment, but couldn’t 1:29:30 Visual of Reagan sitting across from Gorbachev was powerful 1:30:45 First scene between Reagan and Gorbachev was verbatim from transcript 1:32:30 There was something profound about their willingness to engage 1:34:15 There was nervousness about having them alone in a room 1:35:45 Reagan carried immense goodwill from Americans into Reykjavik 1:37:45 The whole world was waiting/watching the summit with bated breath 1:38:30 How close were we to getting rid of nuclear weapons? 1:39:30 We did end up reducing nuclear arsenals by 90% 1:40:00 How did Jeff Daniels prepare to play Reagan? 1:41:45 Difficulty getting mainstream actors to participate in political history? 1:42:30 How’d you pull off getting a difficult topic approved and made? 1:43:15 Got the actors and script first, then went to the studio 1:44:00 JK Simmons was looking for a real challenge 1:45:15 George Shultz is an unsung hero of American history 1:46:00 JK Simmons nailed Shultz's accent on the first take 1:47:45 You’re given more breadth in film, but not more time to produce it 1:50:30 What is the better format to tell a story? Movie, limited series etc. 1:53:00 Audiences have proven to be hungry for true history stories 1:55:15 What’s your dream project? 1:56:30 Need to “prove it” in order to get your dream project approved 1:59:15 Career advice? How did you break in and succeed in the business? 2:00:45 Things you don’t get can be just as important as what you do get 2:02:00 ToddCast Top 5 Vulnerable Democratic Held Seats 2:04:45 #1 Kansas governor 2:06:15 #2 Michigan senate 2:08:00 #3 Oregon governor 2:09:15 #4 Wisconsin governor 2:10:45 #5 None - There aren’t that many vulnerable Dem seats 2:13:45 Ask Chuck 2:14:00 Is presidential health the only thing an administration can hide? 2:17:30 Thoughts on the World Cup & sportsmanship displayed? 2:19:00 Thoughts on the Fauci hearings? 2:26:00 Do bipartisan letters to the White House actually work? 2:28:30 Has politics discouraged a better investigation into the Butler shooting? 2:32:45 Does growing physical separation between public & leaders heighten their bubble? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • August 6 · 1 hr 48 min

    Chuck’s Commentary - Biggest Takeaways From Tuesday’s Primaries + Trump’s Obsession With The Reflecting Pool…Explained

    Chuck Todd breaks down a primary night that scrambled the Senate map, starting in Michigan where Abdul El-Sayed edged Rep. Haley Stevens by roughly 20,000 votes — overcoming a nearly 8-to-1 spending disadvantage in what became the most expensive Senate primary in American history. He argues the narrow margin was actually the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed, and while Michigan is now a harder general election for Democrats against Mike Rogers, El-Sayed can absolutely win it. The most fascinating data point buried in the results: El-Sayed carried Grand Rapids and Kent County, a place that was solidly Republican for decades, evidence that there's a growing white progressive vote reshaping the Midwest. He pushes back on the sloppy way analysts label party factions, preferring "movement" versus "governing" factions to the usual progressive-moderate shorthand, notes that electability is always situational, and cautions that money makes races competitive without guaranteeing wins. He flags that Wisconsin is now the next big test, where nobody should assume Francesca Hong runs away with it. He also spotlights results that flew under the radar: pastor Adam Hamilton beat ten other Democrats to become nominee Republicans will struggle to caricature against Roger Marshall, meaning Kansas joins Iowa as a genuine pickup opportunity in a cycle where Trump's tariffs have wrecked agricultural states. Republicans, meanwhile, leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed on day one, which Chuck suspects could badly boomerang. He argues the GOP would love to be rid of Max Miller, whose personal issues could drag down Bernie Moreno, though even replacing him may cost the GOP three to five points — and closes on the surreal spectacle of a president losing an increasingly global war while obsessing over his reflecting pool: Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing publicly and another in court, Trump says she "choked" when really she choked on reality, and Chuck’s read is that Trump wanted a headline more than a case, may be lashing out precisely because he's lost control of everything else, is desperate to get out of Iran, and might find that handing over the Strait is the least humiliating option left — all while his grip on his own voters keeps weakening. Finally Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 most vulnerable Democratic seats… and couldn’t make it to 5. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:45 Review of Tuesday’s primary results 05:30 Michigan now harder for Dems in general, but El-Sayed can win 06:30 Wisconsin primary will be next big test of divide in Democratic party 08:45 Almost losing was the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed 09:30 Republicans don’t have many senate pickup opportunities 11:30 El-Sayed’s winning margin will be less than 20k votes 13:00 El-Sayed won the race in Grand Rapids 14:15 Kent county was solidly Republican for decades 16:30 The moderate/Gerald Ford Republicans aren’t voting for the GOP 17:30 There’s a growing white, progressive vote 19:45 In 2016 many people voted for Bernie out of protest for Clinton 20:30 Fascinating that Grand Rapids became a progressive stronghold 23:00 Analysts have a hard time characterizing factions inside parties 23:45 Prefer the label of “movement” vs. “governing” factions 24:45 Electability depends on the state and the situation 25:15 Money makes races more competitive, doesn’t guarantee victory 27:30 Progressives will need a crowded primary in 2028 to win 29:15 Don’t assume Francesca Hong will run away in Dem primary in WI 31:45 Big questions loom over Wisconsin primary 33:15 Some big results in Kansas flew under the radar 34:45 Founders didn’t want judges to be elected & subject to voters 35:15 Kansas rejected elections for state Supreme Court 36:30 On day one, Republicans leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed 37:00 The Islamophobia could boomerang on Republicans 37:45 Dems keep putting more senate seats in play, Kansas is now one 38:15 Adam Hamilton is pastor of huge church in Kansas\ 39:00 Hamilton has been a bridge builder, and beat 10 other Dems 39:45 Republicans will have a hard time making a caricature of Hamilton 40:30 Hamilton will have an unusual constituency going into the race 41:30 Roger Marshall has never had a stress test in a general election 43:00 Trump’s tariffs have caused huge problems in agriculture states 44:30 Iowa and Kansas are real pickup chances for Democrats 46:00 Missouri voters sent a message on the issue of taxes 46:45 Trump has long wanted to scrap income taxes 47:30 Voters reject a high sales tax replacing income tax 49:00 Tax credits for the KC Chiefs stadium was a political loser 49:30 Voters don’t like subsidizing rich people 50:00 More stories of Republican men behaving badly 50:15 Republicans would love to get rid of Max Miller 50:45 Trump always sides with the accused over the women 51:30 Max Miller has serious personal issues 52:45 Miller could have hurt Bernie Moreno politically 53:45 Multiple disgraced former members of congress in same race in Florida 55:00 Even if Miller is replaced, the party could face a 3-5 point penalty 55:45 Iran war is going sideways & Trump is worried about Reflecting Pool 56:30 Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing in public & another in court 57:15 Trump says she “choked”... she choked on reality 58:00 Trump doesn’t care the facts didn’t meet the case, wanted a headline 58:30 Maybe he’s angry because he’s lost control of everything else, like Iran 59:30 Trump is desperate to get out of the war 1:00:30 Chance of the war going global is uncomfortably high 1:01:30 Trump handing over the Strait might be least humiliating option 1:02:00 Reflecting pool may be the thing Trump feels he has control over 1:02:45 Trump’s grip on his voters has weakened 1:08:00 ToddCast Top 5 Vulnerable Democratic Held Seats 1:10:45 #1 Kansas governor 1:12:15 #2 Michigan senate 1:14:00 #3 Oregon governor 1:15:15 #4 Wisconsin governor 1:16:45 #5 None - There aren’t that many vulnerable Dem seats 1:19:45 Ask Chuck 1:20:00 Is presidential health the only thing an administration can hide? 1:23:30 Thoughts on the World Cup & sportsmanship displayed? 1:25:00 Thoughts on the Fauci hearings? 1:32:00 Do bipartisan letters to the White House actually work? 1:34:30 Has politics discouraged a better investigation into the Butler shooting? 1:38:45 Does growing physical separation between public & leaders heighten their bubble? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • August 5 · 57 min

    Super Tuesdays - Michigan Democratic Primary Goes Down To The Wire

    Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza burn the midnight oil for a rare Wednesday drop, breaking down a Michigan Senate primary that became the most expensive Democratic Senate primary contest in U.S. history and a genuine proxy war over the party's future. With Abdul El-Sayed leading Haley Stevens by a far narrower margin than the polling suggested, the guys unpack why Michigan is so hard to poll, why Black voters are routinely under-sampled in primary surveys, and what it says that the Whitmer-and-labor-backed machine kept this close — a double-digit El-Sayed win, Chuck argues, would have been a genuine indictment of the establishment. They then game out the general: why Republicans will now dump money into Michigan they'd never have spent against Stevens, why an Islamophobic campaign against El-Sayed could backfire spectacularly, and why the stakes for the progressive movement in 2028 are enormous either way. Plus: how the county-by-county map becomes a strategic document for every 2028 campaign now that Michigan sits in the early window. From there they widen the lens to the sleeper races nobody's watching — Kansas, where megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton emerged from a crowded Democratic field and will face Republican incumbent Roger Marshall in November, plus South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa, where tariffs, deportations, and the ag economy have made supposedly safe seats interesting. They dig into the ugly Max Miller saga in Ohio ahead of the ballot deadline, why Trump's refusal to push him out is grimly consistent, and the human cost to a family caught in the middle. Then it's a bracing riff on whether Trump actually wants any Republican not named Trump to win in 2028, bearish takes on Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris, a Chuck rant about why abolishing the Senate and packing the Court is magical thinking, and a closing lament about the Nats' fire sale. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 A swing state picks its most liberal Senate nominee ever 00:41 Why Michigan polling is almost always wrong 00:59 The under-polled Black vote and why this race stayed close 01:48 Stevens had the machine — labor, Whitmer, and Wayne County 02:11 Double-digit El-Sayed win is an indictment of the establishment 03:18 The Bernie problem 05:18 Republicans will now spend far more against El-Sayed 05:44 Big money got rejected 06:29 Mike Rogers has never been a great fundraiser 07:16 This is now the only real Republican pickup opportunity 08:16 Maine goes regional — and why Collins is in big trouble 09:20 A loss is a body blow to the progressive movement 13:57 Why they held the episode until Wednesday 14:22 To Kansas: Adam Hamilton, wins the Democratic primary 15:15 Cook moves the race to Likely Republican 16:36 School funding, Johnson County & the issue also lifting Rob Sand 17:49 From anti-Brownback coalition to an actual Democratic Party 18:35 Why South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas are all suddenly live 19:16 Is MAGA angry enough at Thune to punish Rounds? 20:13 Tariffs and deportations have hammered the ag economy 20:38 Nebraska's hard ceiling vs. Kansas's higher ceiling 22:26 Which is closer in November — Kansas or Nebraska? 23:29 Why the Islamophobia play could backfire 24:29 Republicans' $300M advantage and where they'll actually spend it 27:27 Governing wing vs. movement wing 28:02 Why AOC engaged in Michigan but never for Graham Platner 29:03 The nationalization test: Talarico-Paxton or El-Sayed-Rogers? 32:41 The Max Miller deadline 33:38 Why the orchestrated exit didn't happen 34:00 Bernie Moreno, his daughter, and the family at the center of it 36:31 Why this is arguably bigger than the Platner story 38:52 Trump doesn't close the deal 39:53 Trump never accepts assault allegations as disqualifying 40:15 Trump puts himself before the party, always 41:06 Will he actually spend the MAGA Inc. money? 41:52 Trump doesn't want Vance or Rubio to win in 2028 43:41 Don Jr.'s changing online behavior — and what it might signal 45:05 Guilfoyle, Newsom & the weirdest political fact in America 45:31 Bearish on Gavin Newsom 47:38 Harris on abolishing the Electoral College and packing the Court 48:09 Changing the rules because you can't win under them 49:20 Why the Senate exists as a check on extremism 51:33 Both parties crashed this car 51:56 Why Schumer's anti-corruption bills are useless political theater 53:52 Congress was supposed to be the anti-corruption bureau 54:08 The Nats fire sale 55:26 Great franchises try to win now AND later 55:48 Manfred, the Dodgers & the coming salary-cap fight See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • August 3 · 58 min

    Interview Only w/ Dr. Brian King - Decades of Anti-Tobacco Wins Are Being Reversed Under Trump

    Dr. Brian King — the former director of the FDA's Center for Tobacco Products, who was placed on administrative leave in April 2025 as part of the mass HHS layoffs joins the Chuck Toddcast to explain what happens to public health when the agency charged with protecting it gets deliberately dismantled. King walks through the extraordinary progress America made reducing cigarette smoking over decades, and how quickly that's being unwound: the tobacco industry donated millions to Trump's PAC, executives pressured the White House directly, and the payoff has been regulatory capture and mounting pressure on the FDA to bring flavored products back to market. He's clear-eyed rather than absolutist on the science — combustible products are far and away the most harmful, nicotine itself is highly addictive but isn't what's killing people, though it's genuinely not risk-free for the adolescent brain — and he walks Chuck through the comparison to caffeine, the data on whether vaping serves as a gateway back into smoking, and what's actually known about nicotine pouches, where youth usage isn't high but stubbornly isn't declining either. The industry, meanwhile, is spending roughly a million dollars an hour advertising its products while fighting every government action to reduce smoking. The conversation turns to what actually works and what's being abandoned. King argues the two most effective interventions available are reducing nicotine levels in cigarettes and banning menthol, credits Congress for getting the Tobacco Control Act right, and stresses that Congress — not the FDA acting alone — has to be the one to regulate tobacco, which is precisely why sidelining the agency is so damaging. He and Chuck get into the questions nobody in Washington wants to answer: why are cigarettes legal at all, how are sugary alcoholic beverages not treated in the same category, and where did the money from the 1998 master settlement actually go. King is pointed that the MAHA movement, for all its rhetoric about chronic disease, has done nothing prominent on tobacco, and that the FDA is now actively undermining both the science and the law it was built to enforce. His closing warning is the bleakest note of the episode: America is in a public health apocalypse that will take decades to repair, it will be enormously hard to recruit a next generation into the field, the entire world will be harmed by the collapse of American public health infrastructure — and the impacts are only just beginning to show up. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Brian King (FDA center on tobacco) joins the Chuck ToddCast 03:45 We made incredible progress reducing cigarette smoking 04:15 Tobacco companies donated and received regulatory capture 05:00 Flavored vapes appeal more to kids & are problematic 06:30 Trump was pressured by executives from tobacco industry 07:15 There were multimillion dollar donations to Trump’s PAC 08:45 What’s the actual health data on nicotine outside of smoking? 09:15 Combustible products are the most harmful 09:45 Nicotine is highly addictive but isn’t causing the harm and deaths 10:30 Nicotine can harm the adolescent brain, it’s not risk free 11:15 Comparing nicotine vs. caffeine 13:00 Vaping typically isn’t a gateway back into smoking 14:15 There’s been pressure on FDA to bring back flavored products 16:45 $1M dollars an hour is being spent advertising tobacco products 17:30 Industry has been fighting all government action to reduce smoking 19:00 The FDA has been sidelined in the fight against smoking 19:30 Why are cigarettes even legal at all? 21:00 Tobacco farmers have transitioned to other crops in other countries 23:00 Reducing nicotine levels is highly effective 23:30 Outlawing menthol is also highly effective 25:15 Congress got it right with the Tobacco Control Act 27:00 How are sugary alcoholic beverages not in the same category? 28:00 What is age gating technology and how does it work? 30:00 Do we have good data on usage for people under 18? 32:30 Nicotine pouch usage isn’t high amongst kids, but isn’t going down 33:00 What is the data about health impacts from pouches? 34:30 Nicotine has a strong stimulant effect, helps with attention 35:15 Settlement in ‘98 required tobacco companies to pay costs in perpetuity 35:45 States have diverted those funds to other purposes 36:45 Did the tobacco industry actually take a hit from the settlement? 37:30 If still at FDA, what changes would you implement? 38:00 FDA has been undermining the science and the law 39:00 Effectiveness of banning indoor smoking 40:15 Should preventing underage addictions be the north star? 42:30 Congress has to regulate tobacco, FDA can’t do it on its own 43:15 MAHA hasn’t done anything prominent on tobacco 45:30 Is there litigation that could be pursued here? 46:45 We’re in a public health apocalypse, will take decades to repair 47:30 It will be hard to recruit people into public health 49:15 The entire world will be harmed by collapse of American public health 51:00 The impacts are just beginning to show up, will get worse See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • August 3 · 2 hr 40 min

    Full Episode - Trump’s Corruption Knows No Bounds + Decades of Anti-Tobacco Wins Are Being Reversed Under Trump

    Chuck Todd opens with the Iran war's arrival on American soil: hackers have hit water systems across multiple states in one of the most serious cyberattacks on U.S. water infrastructure in years and investigators probing an Iranian link. Trump's response tells you everything about the presidency in its current state — he didn't blame the attacker, he blamed the victim, using the hack as an occasion to attack Minnesota Democrats. Chuck’s question hangs over the whole segment: was Trump briefed on the Iranian connection and went after Minnesota anyway? Either way, the first instinct was to find a Democrat to blame, which Chuck calls a kind of polarization disease that leaves a president caring more about his narrative than about American citizens drinking the water. It fits a pattern the episode keeps circling: Jeanine Pirro presented false evidence to a grand jury blaming a former Olympian for damage to the White House reflecting pool, dropped the case when Interior produced documents proving otherwise, and Trump publicly disagreed with dropping it because he still insists it was vandals. Chuck argues negative information never reaches Trump, and people who bring him bad news don't last long — which is how you end up with a president insisting affordability is a Democratic scam Then, Chuck highlights a Wall Street Journal piece that lays out Trump's corruption — roughly $800 million raised through what amounts to an advertised pay-to-play scheme. Anti-corruption is a devastating midterm message sitting right there for Democrats to pick up… then Chuck Schumer rolled out a bill that Chuck calls a piece of garbage: it wouldn't even cover the conduct in the WSJ story, it's likely unconstitutional because it names individuals, and — most absurdly — it creates a new anti-corruption agency inside the executive branch, meaning a corrupt president would appoint its director and seven board members and, per the Supreme Court, could fire them at will. Congress can already do every bit of the oversight the agency would perform and Schumer's answer to executive corruption is to hand the executive more power and write Congress out of its own job. He closes on Michigan and Wisconsin as the clearest signals of where the Democratic Party is headed — Abdul El-Sayed running a movement inside a Senate race with the explicit goal of changing the party, DSA-endorsed Francesca Wong leading in Wisconsin while the establishment fails to coordinate against her — and on the DSA's new call to abolish the Senate, which Senate Democrats pushed back on without ever defending the institution. Chuck defends it himself: the Senate is a feature, not a bug, a brake on political extremism, and the right response to losing an argument is to win it rather than rewrite the rules. Then, Dr. Brian King — the former director of the FDA's Center for Tobacco Products, who was placed on administrative leave in April 2025 as part of the mass HHS layoffs joins the Chuck Toddcast to explain what happens to public health when the agency charged with protecting it gets deliberately dismantled. King walks through the extraordinary progress America made reducing cigarette smoking over decades, and how quickly that's being unwound: the tobacco industry donated millions to Trump's PAC, executives pressured the White House directly, and the payoff has been regulatory capture and mounting pressure on the FDA to bring flavored products back to market. He's clear-eyed rather than absolutist on the science — combustible products are far and away the most harmful, nicotine itself is highly addictive but isn't what's killing people, though it's genuinely not risk-free for the adolescent brain — and he walks Chuck through the comparison to caffeine, the data on whether vaping serves as a gateway back into smoking, and what's actually known about nicotine pouches, where youth usage isn't high but stubbornly isn't declining either. The industry, meanwhile, is spending roughly a million dollars an hour advertising its products while fighting every government action to reduce smoking. The conversation turns to what actually works and what's being abandoned. King argues the two most effective interventions available are reducing nicotine levels in cigarettes and banning menthol, credits Congress for getting the Tobacco Control Act right, and stresses that Congress — not the FDA acting alone — has to be the one to regulate tobacco, which is precisely why sidelining the agency is so damaging. He and Chuck get into the questions nobody in Washington wants to answer: why are cigarettes legal at all, how are sugary alcoholic beverages not treated in the same category, and where did the money from the 1998 master settlement actually go. King is pointed that the MAHA movement, for all its rhetoric about chronic disease, has done nothing prominent on tobacco, and that the FDA is now actively undermining both the science and the law it was built to enforce. His closing warning is the bleakest note of the episode: America is in a public health apocalypse that will take decades to repair, it will be enormously hard to recruit a next generation into the field, the entire world will be harmed by the collapse of American public health infrastructure — and the impacts are only just beginning to show up. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Watergate and Richard Nixon’s resignation, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:15 The Iran war has become a global conflict 06:45 Once again Trump issues threats, then walks them back 08:15 War is one of biggest strategic mistakes in decades 09:00 Increased gas prices have cost households additional $560 10:30 CISA warns that Iranian hackers are targeting water infrastructure 11:15 Iran could cause unreliability to the American water supply 13:00 Trump used hacking attacks to blame Minnesota Democrats 13:45 Trump didn’t blame the attacker, he blamed the victim 15:30 Jeanine Pirro blamed former Olympian for damage to reflecting pool 16:00 Dept. of Interior had documents proving otherwise, Pirro dropped case 17:00 Pirro presented false evidence to a grand jury 18:30 Trump publicly disagreed with Pirro dropping case, says it was vandals 19:30 Trump’s staff is shielding him from the truth 21:00 Trump’s lack of understanding reality is terrible for him 21:30 Trump’s low approval is a midterm disaster in the making 23:00 Stephanie Grisham says 85% of negative info is kept from Trump 24:15 People who bring Trump bad news don’t last very long 25:30 Republicans aren’t campaigning like things are going well 26:00 Ken Paxton puts out an affordability agenda, looks like a Dem proposal 27:15 Trump still saying affordability is scam made up by Democrats 28:15 Trump can’t understand the reality of the situation 28:45 Was Trump briefed on Iran hack… then attacked Minnesota anyway? 30:00 Trump’s first instinct was to find a Democrat to blame 30:45 Trump is demented with polarization disease 31:15 Trump cares more about his narrative than American citizens 32:15 Trump is bragging about his grifting an Americans are tired of it 33:15 Anti-Corruption is a massively effective midterm strategy 33:45 Chuck Schumer rolls out a stinker of an anti-corruption bill 34:45 WSJ publishes airtight piece about Trump’s overt corruption 35:45 There’s no buffer or plausible deniability for Trump in the corruption story 36:45 Trump is basically advertising that government is a pay to play scheme 37:45 There’s a list of presidential promises for favors that have been bought 38:15 Trump has raised $800m in pay for play schemes with little accounting 39:00 There is no law outlawing a president from raising unlimited money 39:30 Trump is now the biggest alligator in the swamp 40:15 Schumer’s bill is a piece of garbage, why many senators didn’t sign on 41:45 Jamie Raskin is performing oversight, Schumer wants agency to do it for him 42:30 The bill wouldn’t even cover the corruption outlined by the WSJ story 44:00 The bill is unconstitutional because it names individuals 45:00 Laws can target behavior, not individuals. It’d be thrown out in court 45:45 The agency Schumer proposed would live in the executive branch 46:15 Agency to stop a corrupt president would be staffed by the president?? 47:15 SCOTUS says president can fire the heads of exec branch agencies 48:45 If bill passed, Trump would pick agency head and 7 members of board 49:15 Congress can perform all the oversight the proposed agency would do 50:30 Congress could stop all this corruption if it wanted to 52:00 Schumer’s idea is to hand more power to the executive branch??? 54:30 The plan from congress is to write themselves out of oversight? 57:00 Schumer’s bill will never see the light of day 57:45 Michigan & Wisconsin will show where the Democratic party is headed 59:30 Abdul El-Sayed made clear his goal is to change the Democratic party 1:00:15 His campaign is a movement inside a senate race 1:01:00 Francesca Wong in Wisconsin is frontrunner & endorsed by DSA 1:01:45 Establishment hasn’t coordinated well to stop Wong 1:02:15 Movement politicians are usually right about the future, wrong about present 1:03:30 Sometimes the movement comes first, sometimes the coalition does 1:04:00 DSA has become a force, and is now calling for abolishing the senate 1:05:00 Senate democrats pushed back, but didn’t defend the senate 1:05:45 The senate is a feature, not a bug 1:06:30 The senate is a brake on political extremism 1:07:15 The response is to win the argument, not rewrite the rules 1:08:00 Movement nominees are easier to defeat than governing ones 1:14:15 Brian King (FDA center on tobacco) joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:18:00 We made incredible progress reducing cigarette smoking 1:18:30 Tobacco companies donated and received regulatory capture 1:19:15 Flavored vapes appeal more to kids & are problematic 1:20:45 Trump was pressured by executives from tobacco industry 1:21:30 There were multimillion dollar donations to Trump’s PAC 1:23:00 What’s the actual health data on nicotine outside of smoking? 1:23:30 Combustible products are the most harmful 1:24:00 Nicotine is highly addictive but isn’t causing the harm and deaths 1:24:45 Nicotine can harm the adolescent brain, it’s not risk free 1:25:30 Comparing nicotine vs. caffeine 1:27:15 Vaping typically isn’t a gateway back into smoking 1:28:30 There’s been pressure on FDA to bring back flavored products 1:31:00 $1M dollars an hour is being spent advertising tobacco products 1:31:45 Industry has been fighting all government action to reduce smoking 1:33:15 The FDA has been sidelined in the fight against smoking 1:33:45 Why are cigarettes even legal at all? 1:35:15 Tobacco farmers have transitioned to other crops in other countries 1:37:15 Reducing nicotine levels is highly effective 1:37:45 Outlawing menthol is also highly effective 1:39:30 Congress got it right with the Tobacco Control Act 1:41:15 How are sugary alcoholic beverages not in the same category? 1:42:15 What is age gating technology and how does it work? 1:44:15 Do we have good data on usage for people under 18? 1:46:45 Nicotine pouch usage isn’t high amongst kids, but isn’t going down 1:47:15 What is the data about health impacts from pouches? 1:48:45 Nicotine has a strong stimulant effect, helps with attention 1:49:30 Settlement in ‘98 required tobacco companies to pay costs in perpetuity 1:50:00 States have diverted those funds to other purposes 1:51:00 Did the tobacco industry actually take a hit from the settlement? 1:51:45 If still at FDA, what changes would you implement? 1:52:15 FDA has been undermining the science and the law 1:53:15 Effectiveness of banning indoor smoking 1:54:30 Should preventing underage addictions be the north star? 1:56:45 Congress has to regulate tobacco, FDA can’t do it on its own 1:57:30 MAHA hasn’t done anything prominent on tobacco 1:59:45 Is there litigation that could be pursued here? 2:01:00 We’re in a public health apocalypse, will take decades to repair 2:01:45 It will be hard to recruit people into public health 2:03:30 The entire world will be harmed by collapse of American public health 2:05:15 The impacts are just beginning to show up, will get worse 2:07:00 Toddcast Time Machine - The five days that ended Richard Nixon 2:07:30 Nixon resigned 52 years ago, this week 2:08:15 Why is Nixon the only president that paid a price for his corruption? 2:09:15 We tell the story of Watergate backwards and start with resignation 2:10:30 The June arrests weren’t the beginning of Watergate 2:12:15 We don’t know what Nixon’s operation learned before the arrests 2:14:00 We never got full answer on the missing 18 minutes 2:14:45 Supreme Court stayed in session during summer to oversee Watergate 2:15:15 Smoking gun tape goes public six days after the break-in 2:16:00 Nixon needed 34 votes in the senate to survive, only had 16 2:16:45 Impeachment in the house was a foregone conclusion 2:17:15 Senators didn’t demand he resign, just showed Nixon the numbers 2:20:30 How different would history have looked had Nixon survived? 2:21:15 Ask Chuck 2:21:30 Is presidency becoming more powerful in a way that could outlast Trump 2:24:30 Can the U.S. government create a true unbiased media source? 2:28:15 Would mandatory voting create better political participation? 2:32:45 Would Illinois make for a better early primary state? 2:34:30 Why not hold every primary on the same day? 2:36:45 Personal anecdote about AI job displacement and fear See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • August 3 · 1 hr 47 min

    Chuck’s Commentary - Trump’s Corruption Knows No Bounds + Iran Attacks America’s Water Supply & Trump Attacks Democrats

    Chuck Todd opens with the Iran war's arrival on American soil: hackers have hit water systems across multiple states in one of the most serious cyberattacks on U.S. water infrastructure in years and investigators probing an Iranian link. Trump's response tells you everything about the presidency in its current state — he didn't blame the attacker, he blamed the victim, using the hack as an occasion to attack Minnesota Democrats. Chuck’s question hangs over the whole segment: was Trump briefed on the Iranian connection and went after Minnesota anyway? Either way, the first instinct was to find a Democrat to blame, which Chuck calls a kind of polarization disease that leaves a president caring more about his narrative than about American citizens drinking the water. It fits a pattern the episode keeps circling: Jeanine Pirro presented false evidence to a grand jury blaming a former Olympian for damage to the White House reflecting pool, dropped the case when Interior produced documents proving otherwise, and Trump publicly disagreed with dropping it because he still insists it was vandals. Chuck argues negative information never reaches Trump, and people who bring him bad news don't last long — which is how you end up with a president insisting affordability is a Democratic scam Then, Chuck highlights a Wall Street Journal piece that lays out Trump's corruption — roughly $800 million raised through what amounts to an advertised pay-to-play scheme. Anti-corruption is a devastating midterm message sitting right there for Democrats to pick up… then Chuck Schumer rolled out a bill that Chuck calls a piece of garbage: it wouldn't even cover the conduct in the WSJ story, it's likely unconstitutional because it names individuals, and — most absurdly — it creates a new anti-corruption agency inside the executive branch, meaning a corrupt president would appoint its director and seven board members and, per the Supreme Court, could fire them at will. Congress can already do every bit of the oversight the agency would perform and Schumer's answer to executive corruption is to hand the executive more power and write Congress out of its own job. He closes on Michigan and Wisconsin as the clearest signals of where the Democratic Party is headed — Abdul El-Sayed running a movement inside a Senate race with the explicit goal of changing the party, DSA-endorsed Francesca Wong leading in Wisconsin while the establishment fails to coordinate against her — and on the DSA's new call to abolish the Senate, which Senate Democrats pushed back on without ever defending the institution. Chuck defends it himself: the Senate is a feature, not a bug, a brake on political extremism, and the right response to losing an argument is to win it rather than rewrite the rules. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Watergate and Richard Nixon’s resignation, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:15 The Iran war has become a global conflict 06:45 Once again Trump issues threats, then walks them back 08:15 War is one of biggest strategic mistakes in decades 09:00 Increased gas prices have cost households additional $560 10:30 CISA warns that Iranian hackers are targeting water infrastructure 11:15 Iran could cause unreliability to the American water supply 13:00 Trump used hacking attacks to blame Minnesota Democrats 13:45 Trump didn’t blame the attacker, he blamed the victim 15:30 Jeanine Pirro blamed former Olympian for damage to reflecting pool 16:00 Dept. of Interior had documents proving otherwise, Pirro dropped case 17:00 Pirro presented false evidence to a grand jury 18:30 Trump publicly disagreed with Pirro dropping case, says it was vandals 19:30 Trump’s staff is shielding him from the truth 21:00 Trump’s lack of understanding reality is terrible for him 21:30 Trump’s low approval is a midterm disaster in the making 23:00 Stephanie Grisham says 85% of negative info is kept from Trump 24:15 People who bring Trump bad news don’t last very long 25:30 Republicans aren’t campaigning like things are going well 26:00 Ken Paxton puts out an affordability agenda, looks like a Dem proposal 27:15 Trump still saying affordability is scam made up by Democrats 28:15 Trump can’t understand the reality of the situation 28:45 Was Trump briefed on Iran hack… then attacked Minnesota anyway? 30:00 Trump’s first instinct was to find a Democrat to blame 30:45 Trump is demented with polarization disease 31:15 Trump cares more about his narrative than American citizens 32:15 Trump is bragging about his grifting an Americans are tired of it 33:15 Anti-Corruption is a massively effective midterm strategy 33:45 Chuck Schumer rolls out a stinker of an anti-corruption bill 34:45 WSJ publishes airtight piece about Trump’s overt corruption 35:45 There’s no buffer or plausible deniability for Trump in the corruption story 36:45 Trump is basically advertising that government is a pay to play scheme 37:45 There’s a list of presidential promises for favors that have been bought 38:15 Trump has raised $800m in pay for play schemes with little accounting 39:00 There is no law outlawing a president from raising unlimited money 39:30 Trump is now the biggest alligator in the swamp 40:15 Schumer’s bill is a piece of garbage, why many senators didn’t sign on 41:45 Jamie Raskin is performing oversight, Schumer wants agency to do it for him 42:30 The bill wouldn’t even cover the corruption outlined by the WSJ story 44:00 The bill is unconstitutional because it names individuals 45:00 Laws can target behavior, not individuals. It’d be thrown out in court 45:45 The agency Schumer proposed would live in the executive branch 46:15 Agency to stop a corrupt president would be staffed by the president?? 47:15 SCOTUS says president can fire the heads of exec branch agencies 48:45 If bill passed, Trump would pick agency head and 7 members of board 49:15 Congress can perform all the oversight the proposed agency would do 50:30 Congress could stop all this corruption if it wanted to 52:00 Schumer’s idea is to hand more power to the executive branch??? 54:30 The plan from congress is to write themselves out of oversight? 57:00 Schumer’s bill will never see the light of day 57:45 Michigan & Wisconsin will show where the Democratic party is headed 59:30 Abdul El-Sayed made clear his goal is to change the Democratic party 1:00:15 His campaign is a movement inside a senate race 1:01:00 Francesca Wong in Wisconsin is frontrunner & endorsed by DSA 1:01:45 Establishment hasn’t coordinated well to stop Wong 1:02:15 Movement politicians are usually right about the future, wrong about present 1:03:30 Sometimes the movement comes first, sometimes the coalition does 1:04:00 DSA has become a force, and is now calling for abolishing the senate 1:05:00 Senate democrats pushed back, but didn’t defend the senate 1:05:45 The senate is a feature, not a bug 1:06:30 The senate is a brake on political extremism 1:07:15 The response is to win the argument, not rewrite the rules 1:08:00 Movement nominees are easier to defeat than governing ones 1:13:30 Toddcast Time Machine - The five days that ended Richard Nixon 1:14:00 Nixon resigned 52 years ago, this week 1:14:45 Why is Nixon the only president that paid a price for his corruption? 1:15:45 We tell the story of Watergate backwards and start with resignation 1:17:00 The June arrests weren’t the beginning of Watergate 1:18:45 We don’t know what Nixon’s operation learned before the arrests 1:20:30 We never got full answer on the missing 18 minutes 1:21:15 Supreme Court stayed in session during summer to oversee Watergate 1:21:45 Smoking gun tape goes public six days after the break-in 1:22:30 Nixon needed 34 votes in the senate to survive, only had 16 1:23:15 Impeachment in the house was a foregone conclusion 1:23:45 Senators didn’t demand he resign, just showed Nixon the numbers 1:27:00 How different would history have looked had Nixon survived? 1:27:45 Ask Chuck 1:28:00 Is presidency becoming more powerful in a way that could outlast Trump 1:31:00 Can the U.S. government create a true unbiased media source? 1:34:45 Would mandatory voting create better political participation? 1:39:15 Would Illinois make for a better early primary state? 1:41:00 Why not hold every primary on the same day? 1:43:15 Personal anecdote about AI job displacement and fear See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • July 30 · 1 hr

    The Truth About Wimbledon | Patrick McEnroe & Chris McKendry Interview

    Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande sit down with longtime ESPN broadcasters Patrick McEnroe and Chris McKendry to go behind the scenes of Wimbledon. From Patrick's firsthand experience competing at the Championships to Chris's years anchoring ESPN's coverage, they share stories and insights you won't hear during the broadcast. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • July 30 · 1 hr 7 min

    Interview Only w/ Andy Beshear - Mitch McConnell’s Disappearing Act & How Democrats Can Win In Trump Country

    Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear — the popular two-term Democrat in a deep-red state and a name increasingly floated for 2028 — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that opens with Kentucky's famous Fancy Farm Picnic and the increasingly countercultural idea that political disagreement shouldn't make people enemies. Beshear turns pointed on Mitch McConnell, who he says has been absent for six weeks without speaking to him, arguing that McConnell has a fundamental duty to level with the people of Kentucky about his condition.. Beshear notes the governor has no authority to declare a vacancy, calls on John Thune to help put the concerns to rest, and observes pointedly that if the situation were reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical about it — and that the right should arguably be angrier, since it's one fewer vote for the GOP agenda. Beshear reflects at length and with real emotion on the COVID years, which he calls the war of our time with a higher casualty rate than most Americans appreciate, credits Kentucky's expanded Medicaid with keeping the state from running out of hospital beds, and warning that Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky alone. He's sharply critical of Rand Paul for dragging Fauci into character-assassination hearings while staying conspicuously silent on McConnell, and reminds listeners it was Trump who ordered governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci. The conversation turns to Beshear's political philosophy and the road ahead for Democrats. He rejects the "moderate" label in favor of "pragmatic," arguing that the constant battle to label everyone misses how much more complicated reality actually is. Beshear makes the case that Democrats don't win by becoming a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump, that the party needs to be the party of making the economy work again, and that it should champion structural reforms like campaign finance amendments, outlawing gerrymandering, and directly electing the president. He's visibly frustrated with Democrats who blame other Democrats when Republicans are the ones doing the damage — there's no time for "woulda-couldas," he argues, when Trump and the GOP are inflicting this much harm. As a leader in the Democratic Governors Association, Beshear lays out where he sees real opportunity: big resources heading into Georgia, the critical importance of Katie Hobbs winning in Arizona to ensure a fair 2028 election, and the DGA's willingness to spend anywhere it can win. He addresses the data center backlash as fundamentally rooted in anxiety about AI and big tech's failure to talk to the communities it moves into, and stays characteristically coy about his own 2028 ambitions. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Governor Andy Beshear joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:15 Kentucky’s Fancy Farm Picnic & its role in politics 02:30 Picnic brings politicians from both sides of the aisle together 03:00 Having different political beliefs shouldn’t make you an “enemy” 03:30 Not attending the picnic to attend his son's final travel baseball game 05:15 Haven’t spoken to Mitch McConnell, he’s been absent six week 05:45 McConnell has a duty to level with the people of Kentucky 06:30 The governor doesn’t have authority to declare a vacancy 07:00 John Thune should help put the concerns to rest 08:45 The harm is that the senator refuses to level with his constituents 09:15 If situation was reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical 09:45 There’s one less vote for GOP agenda, the right should be more mad 10:45 Social media helps create a misinformation vacuum about McConnell 12:15 Democrats don’t win by being a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump 13:00 If he had to miss a week as governor, he’d feel obligated to inform the public 13:45 Lack of video of McConnell makes the public think he can’t do it 14:30 McConnell tried to beat him three straight times and failed 15:00 McConnell may end up tarnishing his legacy due to unexplained absence 15:45 Rand Paul dragged Fauci into a hearing, but mum on McConnell 16:30 Fauci hearings are just an exercise in character assassination 17:45 This feels like a personal vendetta from Paul against Fauci 18:30 Mike Pence set up a competent experienced team during COVID 19:00 Trump ordered the governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci 19:30 Vaccine was the fastest remedy created in human history 21:15 Made pandemic decisions based on what would save the most lives 21:45 Remember the death toll in Kentucky vividly 22:45 COVID was ultimate test of the parable of the good samaritan 23:30 COVID was the war of our time, with an even higher casualty rate 24:00 Teachers & educators needed to be in the first batch of vaccinations 25:30 Kentucky didn’t run out of hospital beds due to expanded Medicaid 26:00 Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky 27:00 Doesn’t consider himself a “moderate”, but instead he’s “pragmatic” 27:45 Can be both pro-business and pro-worker 28:15 There’s a battle to label everyone, but reality is more complicated 28:45 How big should the Democratic tent be? 29:45 There’s space to do things that both sides agree on 30:15 Why are Democratic activists so mad at the establishment? 31:00 Democrats need to be the party of making the economy work again 31:30 Need amendments for campaign finance & outlawing gerrymandering 32:15 The president should be directly elected 32:45 Dems blame others Dems when Republicans are doing something wrong 33:30 Can’t do “woulda couldas” when Trump & GOP are doing so much damage 35:00 What’s the pitch in Wisconsin gubernatorial if both candidates are outsiders? 35:45 Joe Biden won on the idea of him being the most electable 36:15 Trump’s policies are hitting everyday Americans harder 37:00 Governor’s association plan to put big resources into Georgia 37:30 Believe that Democrats will flip the governor’s mansion in GA 38:00 Katie Hobbs has to win to ensure a fair election in Arizona in ‘28 40:15 Trump inspired Canadian boycotts that have hit the economy hard 41:30 Winner of the Wisconsin primary will come out stronger 42:00 Jocelyn Benson is a great candidate for Michigan 42:45 Amy Acton can win regardless of the senate race 43:15 Correlation between governor and senate races 46:00 Can Dems pull off gubernatorial upsets in Texas or Florida? 46:30 DGA will spend resources wherever they can win 47:45 Focused on winning gubernatorial races, then will ponder run in ‘28 48:30 Important to declare presidential candidacy early? 49:15 Dems primary calendar will produce candidate that can win everywhere 50:15 Do you consider Kentucky a southern state? 51:00 Could Israel splinter the party and make elections unwinnable? 51:45 Will Doug Jones get DGA help? 53:15 Data center backlash comes from concern about AI 54:00 Big tech isn’t talking to the communities where they put data centers 54:30 Tech should be paying for their electricity & fair share of taxes 57:00 We need rational leaders, don’t know where AI/tech is going 58:15 Any effort to get an NBA franchise in Kentucky? 1:00:00 Favorite NBA team See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • July 30 · 2 hr 47 min

    Full Episode - The Iran War Risks Going Global + Mitch McConnell’s Disappearing Act & How Democrats Can Win In Trump Country

    Chuck Todd argues Republicans and the White House are frantically trying to manufacture headlines about the past precisely because the actual news of the present is terrible for the GOP, and because the very issues that got Trump elected are the ones he's now ignoring. Democrats are winning heading into the midterms, TChuck says; the only real question is by how much, which is exactly why Republicans are so desperate to feed their base culture-war red meat as a distraction. But the story Chuck argues is being dangerously underplayed is the Iran war, which is no longer a regional conflict at all: close to thirty countries have been directly involved, multiple nations have been hit, and the Iran and Ukraine wars have effectively merged through shared supply chains — Russia has launched thousands of Iranian-made drones at Ukraine, improved and manufactured them, and is now shipping them back to Iran, while Ukrainian air defense teams have been redeployed to the Middle East and the American stockpile of interceptor missiles has been so massively depleted that commanders are rationing them. He calls the war the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades, while rising oil prices help both Iran and Russia.. It's not World War III, he cautions, but it's genuinely hard to see how it ends, and Congress should be singularly focused on it and simply isn't. He then pivots to what he calls a politics of AI that hasn't been invented yet, where the public is way ahead of the politicians: 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months and like it, but the vast majority don't trust big tech or the AI companies, and the fierce backlash against data centers is really the manifestation of a deeper anger ever since tech companies stopped trying to improve lives and started maximizing engagement. The public isn't rejecting AI, he argues, it's rejecting the technologists, and Trump has planted himself firmly on the side of the tech companies over the public. He closes by lamenting that political energy is being spent on Fauci rather than pandemic preparedness — before quick hits on Todd Achilles getting a one-on-one race in Idaho, Seth Bodnar leading in Montana if the Democrat can be coaxed into dropping out, and the question hanging over Michigan: if Abdul El-Sayed loses, will it have been because of Mamdani's Israel speech? Then, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear — the popular two-term Democrat in a deep-red state and a name increasingly floated for 2028 — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that opens with Kentucky's famous Fancy Farm Picnic and the increasingly countercultural idea that political disagreement shouldn't make people enemies. Beshear turns pointed on Mitch McConnell, who he says has been absent for six weeks without speaking to him, arguing that McConnell has a fundamental duty to level with the people of Kentucky about his condition.. Beshear notes the governor has no authority to declare a vacancy, calls on John Thune to help put the concerns to rest, and observes pointedly that if the situation were reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical about it — and that the right should arguably be angrier, since it's one fewer vote for the GOP agenda. Beshear reflects at length and with real emotion on the COVID years, which he calls the war of our time with a higher casualty rate than most Americans appreciate, credits Kentucky's expanded Medicaid with keeping the state from running out of hospital beds, and warning that Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky alone. He's sharply critical of Rand Paul for dragging Fauci into character-assassination hearings while staying conspicuously silent on McConnell, and reminds listeners it was Trump who ordered governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci. The conversation turns to Beshear's political philosophy and the road ahead for Democrats. He rejects the "moderate" label in favor of "pragmatic," arguing that the constant battle to label everyone misses how much more complicated reality actually is. Beshear makes the case that Democrats don't win by becoming a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump, that the party needs to be the party of making the economy work again, and that it should champion structural reforms like campaign finance amendments, outlawing gerrymandering, and directly electing the president. He's visibly frustrated with Democrats who blame other Democrats when Republicans are the ones doing the damage — there's no time for "woulda-couldas," he argues, when Trump and the GOP are inflicting this much harm. As a leader in the Democratic Governors Association, Beshear lays out where he sees real opportunity: big resources heading into Georgia, the critical importance of Katie Hobbs winning in Arizona to ensure a fair 2028 election, and the DGA's willingness to spend anywhere it can win. He addresses the data center backlash as fundamentally rooted in anxiety about AI and big tech's failure to talk to the communities it moves into, and stays characteristically coy about his own 2028 ambitions. Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 Independents/Independent minded leaders who could reshape the U.S. Senate and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:45 Republicans & WH are trying to manufacture the headlines 03:15 Attacking Fauci, going after Smithsonian, relitigating 2020 election 04:00 These stories are about yesterday, modern headlines are bad for GOP 04:30 The issues that got Trump elected are the issues he’s ignoring 05:30 Dems are winning heading into midterms, question is by how much 07:00 Republicans are desperate to distract their base 07:45 They believe the culture war red meat will turn out their base 08:45 The Iran war is being underplayed 09:45 There have been close to thirty countries directly involved in the war 10:45 Multiple countries have been hit directly during the war 11:30 This is not a regional war 12:00 Multiple countries have been directly involved in kinetic action 13:30 Multiple countries also involved in, or hosted peace talks 15:00 The Ukraine & Iran wars have merged through supply chains 15:45 Nervous that this conflict could go global 16:15 Russia has launched thousands of Iranian made drones at Ukraine 16:45 Russia improved & manufactured drones, now shipping them back to Iran 17:30 Ukraine air defence teams have been sent to the middle east 18:45 American stockpile of air defense missiles has been massively depleted 19:30 Military commanders are having to ration interceptor missiles 20:00 This war was the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades 21:15 Both conflicts are eating from the same plate 21:45 War caused a rise in oil prices, which helped both Iran and Russia 22:15 Beijing hasn’t been a bystander in these conflicts 23:15 Decapitation strikes have been proven not to work 24:00 Everyone is learning the same lessons, including America’s adversaries 24:45 This is not World War 3, but it’s hard to see how this war ends 25:45 Congress should be singularly focused on this war, and it isn’t 27:00 This started as an Iran/Israel dispute, now the world has been dragged in 28:15 The politics of AI hasn’t been invented yet, public is ahead of politicians 29:15 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months & like using it 29:45 Vast majority of Americans don’t trust big tech or the AI companies 31:00 There’s a disconnect on AI between politicians the American public 31:45 Backlash against data centers is the manifestation of anger at big tech 32:45 Politicians want to manage backlash, not understand what’s behind it 35:00 Seeing political banners against data centers flying over Pensacola beach 37:15 The politicians are trying to play catch up on the politics of AI 37:45 Americans didn’t always distrust big tech 38:45 Tech companies stopped trying to improve lives, now maximize engagement 40:15 Americans feel we’re being optimized, not served by big tech 41:15 Protecting kids from tech is now an issue with massive bipartisan support 42:45 The public isn’t rejecting AI, they’re rejecting the technologists 44:30 Trump sides with the tech companies over the public 45:45 Politicians are captured by, or afraid of big tech cash in politics 48:00 Frustrating that political energy is spent on Fauci, not pandemic preparedness 48:30 Fauci became a vessel for every frustration about COVID 49:00 Fauci had one job, tell the public what the medical risks were 50:30 We had 2,000 Americans dying a day 51:30 We have to remember the conditions under which decisions were made 52:00 Rand Paul released thousands of pages of Fauci’s pandemic era journals 52:30 Pleading the 5th makes people look guiltier than they are 53:15 We learned Fauci loves media attention, but so does Rand Paul 54:15 Relitigating the origins of Covid doesn’t help prepare for the next pandemic 55:15 Rand Paul is undermining his own credibility by attacking Fauci 55:45 Todd Achilles will get a 1 on 1 race in Idaho 56:30 Seth Bodnar leading in Montana in 1 on 1, but Dem resisting dropping out 57:45 If El-Sayed loses in Michigan… was it because of Mamdani’s Israel speech? 1:04:15 Governor Andy Beshear joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:05:30 Kentucky’s Fancy Farm Picnic & its role in politics 1:06:45 Picnic brings politicians from both sides of the aisle together 1:07:15 Having different political beliefs shouldn’t make you an “enemy” 1:07:45 Not attending the picnic to attend his son's final travel baseball game 1:09:30 Haven’t spoken to Mitch McConnell, he’s been absent six week 1:10:00 McConnell has a duty to level with the people of Kentucky 1:10:45 The governor doesn’t have authority to declare a vacancy 1:11:15 John Thune should help put the concerns to rest 1:13:00 The harm is that the senator refuses to level with his constituents 1:13:30 If situation was reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical 1:14:00 There’s one less vote for GOP agenda, the right should be more mad 1:15:00 Social media helps create a misinformation vacuum about McConnell 1:16:30 Democrats don’t win by being a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump 1:17:15 If he had to miss a week as governor, he’d feel obligated to inform the public 1:18:00 Lack of video of McConnell makes the public think he can’t do it 1:18:45 McConnell tried to beat him three straight times and failed 1:19:15 McConnell may end up tarnishing his legacy due to unexplained absence 1:20:00 Rand Paul dragged Fauci into a hearing, but mum on McConnell 1:20:45 Fauci hearings are just an exercise in character assassination 1:22:00 This feels like a personal vendetta from Paul against Fauci 1:22:45 Mike Pence set up a competent experienced team during COVID 1:23:15 Trump ordered the governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci 1:23:45 Vaccine was the fastest remedy created in human history 1:25:30 Made pandemic decisions based on what would save the most lives 1:26:00 Remember the death toll in Kentucky vividly 1:27:00 COVID was ultimate test of the parable of the good samaritan 1:27:45 COVID was the war of our time, with an even higher casualty rate 1:28:15 Teachers & educators needed to be in the first batch of vaccinations 1:29:45 Kentucky didn’t run out of hospital beds due to expanded Medicaid 1:30:15 Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky 1:31:15 Doesn’t consider himself a “moderate”, but instead he’s “pragmatic” 1:32:00 Can be both pro-business and pro-worker 1:32:30 There’s a battle to label everyone, but reality is more complicated 1:33:00 How big should the Democratic tent be? 1:34:00 There’s space to do things that both sides agree on 1:34:30 Why are Democratic activists so mad at the establishment? 1:35:15 Democrats need to be the party of making the economy work again 1:35:45 Need amendments for campaign finance & outlawing gerrymandering 1:36:30 The president should be directly elected 1:37:00 Dems blame others Dems when Republicans are doing something wrong 1:37:45 Can’t do “woulda couldas” when Trump & GOP are doing so much damage 1:39:15 What’s the pitch in Wisconsin gubernatorial if both candidates are outsiders? 1:40:00 Joe Biden won on the idea of him being the most electable 1:40:30 Trump’s policies are hitting everyday Americans harder 1:41:15 Governor’s association plan to put big resources into Georgia 1:41:45 Believe that Democrats will flip the governor’s mansion in GA 1:42:15 Katie Hobbs has to win to ensure a fair election in Arizona in ‘28 1:44:30 Trump inspired Canadian boycotts that have hit the economy hard 1:45:45 Winner of the Wisconsin primary will come out stronger 1:46:15 Jocelyn Benson is a great candidate for Michigan 1:47:00 Amy Acton can win regardless of the senate race 1:47:30 Correlation between governor and senate races 1:50:15 Can Dems pull off gubernatorial upsets in Texas or Florida? 1:50:45 DGA will spend resources wherever they can win 1:52:00 Focused on winning gubernatorial races, then will ponder run in ‘28 1:52:45 Important to declare presidential candidacy early? 1:53:30 Dems primary calendar will produce candidate that can win everywhere 1:54:30 Do you consider Kentucky a southern state? 1:55:15 Could Israel splinter the party and make elections unwinnable? 1:56:00 Will Doug Jones get DGA help? 1:57:30 Data center backlash comes from concern about AI 1:58:15 Big tech isn’t talking to the communities where they put data centers 1:58:45 Tech should be paying for their electricity & fair share of taxes 2:01:15 We need rational leaders, don’t know where AI/tech is going 2:02:30 Any effort to get an NBA franchise in Kentucky? 2:04:15 Favorite NBA team 2:05:45 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Andy Beshear 2:07:00 ToddCast Top 5 Independents who could shape the senate 2:07:30 #5 Todd Achilles 2:10:00 #4 Dan Osborne 2:12:15 #3 Seth Bodnar 2:13:30 #2 Lisa Murkowski 2:14:30 #1 John Fetterman 2:17:15 Ask Chuck 2:18:15 Correction for answer on the last pod 2:20:30 Why haven’t we heard much about the people who tried to kill Trump? 2:27:45 Can Trump take the Qatari jet that’s had taxpayer $ spent on it? 2:31:00 What motivates those closest to Trump? Do they believe what they’re saying? 2:34:30 Can you explain the history of the term “lobbyist”? 2:39:45 Thoughts on the funding model of the BBC? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • July 30 · 1 hr 43 min

    Chuck’s Commentary - The Iran War Risks Going Global + The Politics Of AI Hasn’t Been Invented Yet

    Chuck Todd argues Republicans and the White House are frantically trying to manufacture headlines about the past precisely because the actual news of the present is terrible for the GOP, and because the very issues that got Trump elected are the ones he's now ignoring. Democrats are winning heading into the midterms, TChuck says; the only real question is by how much, which is exactly why Republicans are so desperate to feed their base culture-war red meat as a distraction. But the story Chuck argues is being dangerously underplayed is the Iran war, which is no longer a regional conflict at all: close to thirty countries have been directly involved, multiple nations have been hit, and the Iran and Ukraine wars have effectively merged through shared supply chains — Russia has launched thousands of Iranian-made drones at Ukraine, improved and manufactured them, and is now shipping them back to Iran, while Ukrainian air defense teams have been redeployed to the Middle East and the American stockpile of interceptor missiles has been so massively depleted that commanders are rationing them. He calls the war the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades, while rising oil prices help both Iran and Russia.. It's not World War III, he cautions, but it's genuinely hard to see how it ends, and Congress should be singularly focused on it and simply isn't. He then pivots to what he calls a politics of AI that hasn't been invented yet, where the public is way ahead of the politicians: 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months and like it, but the vast majority don't trust big tech or the AI companies, and the fierce backlash against data centers is really the manifestation of a deeper anger ever since tech companies stopped trying to improve lives and started maximizing engagement. The public isn't rejecting AI, he argues, it's rejecting the technologists, and Trump has planted himself firmly on the side of the tech companies over the public. He closes by lamenting that political energy is being spent on Fauci rather than pandemic preparedness — before quick hits on Todd Achilles getting a one-on-one race in Idaho, Seth Bodnar leading in Montana if the Democrat can be coaxed into dropping out, and the question hanging over Michigan: if Abdul El-Sayed loses, will it have been because of Mamdani's Israel speech? Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 Independents/Independent minded leaders who could reshape the U.S. Senate and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:45 Republicans & WH are trying to manufacture the headlines 03:15 Attacking Fauci, going after Smithsonian, relitigating 2020 election 04:00 These stories are about yesterday, modern headlines are bad for GOP 04:30 The issues that got Trump elected are the issues he’s ignoring 05:30 Dems are winning heading into midterms, question is by how much 07:00 Republicans are desperate to distract their base 07:45 They believe the culture war red meat will turn out their base 08:45 The Iran war is being underplayed 09:45 There have been close to thirty countries directly involved in the war 10:45 Multiple countries have been hit directly during the war 11:30 This is not a regional war 12:00 Multiple countries have been directly involved in kinetic action 13:30 Multiple countries also involved in, or hosted peace talks 15:00 The Ukraine & Iran wars have merged through supply chains 15:45 Nervous that this conflict could go global 16:15 Russia has launched thousands of Iranian made drones at Ukraine 16:45 Russia improved & manufactured drones, now shipping them back to Iran 17:30 Ukraine air defence teams have been sent to the middle east 18:45 American stockpile of air defense missiles has been massively depleted 19:30 Military commanders are having to ration interceptor missiles 20:00 This war was the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades 21:15 Both conflicts are eating from the same plate 21:45 War caused a rise in oil prices, which helped both Iran and Russia 22:15 Beijing hasn’t been a bystander in these conflicts 23:15 Decapitation strikes have been proven not to work 24:00 Everyone is learning the same lessons, including America’s adversaries 24:45 This is not World War 3, but it’s hard to see how this war ends 25:45 Congress should be singularly focused on this war, and it isn’t 27:00 This started as an Iran/Israel dispute, now the world has been dragged in 28:15 The politics of AI hasn’t been invented yet, public is ahead of politicians 29:15 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months & like using it 29:45 Vast majority of Americans don’t trust big tech or the AI companies 31:00 There’s a disconnect on AI between politicians the American public 31:45 Backlash against data centers is the manifestation of anger at big tech 32:45 Politicians want to manage backlash, not understand what’s behind it 35:00 Seeing political banners against data centers flying over Pensacola beach 37:15 The politicians are trying to play catch up on the politics of AI 37:45 Americans didn’t always distrust big tech 38:45 Tech companies stopped trying to improve lives, now maximize engagement 40:15 Americans feel we’re being optimized, not served by big tech 41:15 Protecting kids from tech is now an issue with massive bipartisan support 42:45 The public isn’t rejecting AI, they’re rejecting the technologists 44:30 Trump sides with the tech companies over the public 45:45 Politicians are captured by, or afraid of big tech cash in politics 48:00 Frustrating that political energy is spent on Fauci, not pandemic preparedness 48:30 Fauci became a vessel for every frustration about COVID 49:00 Fauci had one job, tell the public what the medical risks were 50:30 We had 2,000 Americans dying a day 51:30 We have to remember the conditions under which decisions were made 52:00 Rand Paul released thousands of pages of Fauci’s pandemic era journals 52:30 Pleading the 5th makes people look guiltier than they are 53:15 We learned Fauci loves media attention, but so does Rand Paul 54:15 Relitigating the origins of Covid doesn’t help prepare for the next pandemic 55:15 Rand Paul is undermining his own credibility by attacking Fauci 55:45 Todd Achilles will get a 1 on 1 race in Idaho 56:30 Seth Bodnar leading in Montana in 1 on 1, but Dem resisting dropping out 57:45 If El-Sayed loses in Michigan… was it because of Mamdani’s Israel speech? 1:01:30 ToddCast Top 5 Independents who could shape the senate 1:02:00 #5 Todd Achilles 1:04:30 #4 Dan Osborne 1:06:45 #3 Seth Bodnar 1:08:00 #2 Lisa Murkowski 1:09:00 #1 John Fetterman 1:11:45 Ask Chuck 1:12:45 Correction for answer on the last pod 1:15:00 Why haven’t we heard much about the people who tried to kill Trump? 1:22:15 Can Trump take the Qatari jet that’s had taxpayer $ spent on it? 1:25:30 What motivates those closest to Trump? Do they believe what they’re saying? 1:29:00 Can you explain the history of the term “lobbyist”? 1:34:15 Thoughts on the funding model of the BBC? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • July 28 · 59 min

    Super Tuesdays - The Democrats’ 2028 Primary Map Is a Nightmare for Progressives

    Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza dig into the biggest structural story of the 2028 race: the DNC's proposed new Democratic nominating calendar, which would open in South Carolina and run through Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. The guys make the case that a calendar starting in the least progressive early state and ending in another one looks engineered to stop a Bernie- or AOC-style insurgent — then debate who it actually helps. Chris sees a raised bar and a no-backup-plan trap for Kamala Harris; Chuck argues the map is a dream scenario for Wes Moore, with three heavily African-American states and two big military populations, while making the counterintuitive case that a splintered field could still let a progressive win South Carolina on a McCain-in-2008-style plurality. Along the way they weigh Buttigieg's veterans play, Mark Kelly's underrated prospects, Pritzker's self-funding edge, and why they'd have picked Arizona over Nevada. From there they turn to an idea from Chuck's wife for reinventing the White House Correspondents' Dinner — hand the South Lawn to reporters and their families once a year, and keep the president and the TV cameras out of it — before tackling the deepening mystery around Mitch McConnell's health and monthslong public silence, and why the conspiracy theories collapse the moment you ask what the upside would be. Then it's on to the stakes of next week's Michigan Senate primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens, which both sides are treating as the first existential fight over the Democratic Party's identity, and how Zohran Mamdani may have reshaped it. They close, as always, with the Nats: the looming trade deadline, why Foster Griffin is expendable but CJ Abrams isn't, and the case for building a brand around the team's young Black stars. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 The DNC's proposed 2028 Democratic nominating calendar 01:00 The six-state lineup 01:42 Why South Carolina and Virginia matter most 02:56 Going first means six months of attention, not a week 03:52 Is South Carolina good for Kamala Harris? 04:54 Win the Black vote, win South Carolina 06:32 The Black vote isn't a monolith 07:51 The calendar is a dream scenario built for Wes Moore 08:34 Is Jon Ossoff the real winner? The neighbor-state theory 10:45 A map that looks designed to stop a Bernie or AOC insurgency 12:24 The progressive math — how 15% could be enough 13:04 A four-state path for the left: fourth, first, second, first 14:41 South Carolina as a race-ender i 15:23 The McCain lesson: 42% as a loss in 2000, 33% as a win in 2008 17:43 Southern Super Tuesday was built to stop liberals 20:08 Use the primary calendar to build the party 21:52 South Carolina's growth & the rural Black voters Democrats ignore 23:00 Why start where you can't win in November? 25:26 Why it's actually a good map for Pete Buttigieg 27:53 Why the expensive states favor self-funder JB Pritzker 30:21 Michigan gets its own week — just as the Israel issue splits the party 31:24 Why Nevada was picked for the interest groups 32:10 White House Correspondents' Dinner and why it felt so off 35:13 The pitch: hand over the South Lawn to the press corps 36:18 Keep the cameras and the president out 38:16 Trump will always make it about himself 40:13 The Mitch McConnell timeline 41:20 A proof-of-life photo — but not a proof-of-speech one 43:03 McConnell has always been intensely private 45:23 The most important Democratic primary in the country 45:49 Why Abdul El-Sayed is all but running for president 46:56 Mamdani's "arrest Netanyahu" speech reshaped the movement 48:24 Gary Peters, Whitmer & the raised stakes 50:00 The morning-after narratives already written for either outcome 53:36 El-Sayed's real problem: little traction in the Black community 54:00 To the Nats: the trade deadline is the biggest day 54:52 Trade Foster Griffin — but don't you dare trade CJ Abrams 57:03 The case for building a DC brand around Abrams & James Wood See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • July 27 · 1 hr 4 min

    Interview Only w/ John Ourand - How Money Has Reshaped Professional & College Sports

    Sports business reporter John Ourand — who shares an origin story with Chuck Todd at Sports Business Daily — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a deep dive into the money reshaping professional and college sports. Ourand walks through the sale of the Seattle Seahawks as a signal that the era of family-owned NFL franchises is ending, explaining how team valuations have roughly doubled in just three years thanks to new tax advantages and the simple fact that NFL ownership has become the ultimate status club for the ultra-wealthy. He and Chuck dig into whether these eye-popping valuations constitute a bubble — the NFL alone signed $110 billion in media deals over two years — and whether the sports media "middle class" could be facing a real reckoning even as streamers thrive with smaller game packages. Ourand offers a fascinating look at how leagues are navigating their relationship with the networks and production companies that broadcast them (the NFL is deliberately careful not to hurt the legacy networks it depends on), and defends the enduring value of investigative sports journalism, pointing to Pablo Torre's Clippers reporting as a reminder that nobody, including executives at ESPN, wants to be remembered as the person who killed real journalism at the network. The conversation turns to how sports and politics are increasingly colliding. Ourand contrasts Michael Jordan's studied political neutrality with the modern reality of athletes and leagues getting pulled into culture war fights whether they want to or not, noting the UFC fight at the White House pulled huge ratings and that Trump's involvement in overturning a disputed red card call may have actually boosted viewership. He praises Caitlin Clark for navigating the culture wars more gracefully than almost anyone in sports today, draws a compelling parallel between Clark and Larry Bird, and argues the WNBA under commissioner Kathy Engelbert isn't doing nearly enough to capitalize on the attention Clark has generated — in part because leagues remain skittish about race and sexuality debates they'd rather avoid entirely. Ourand closes with a detailed look at the messy economics of college sports, explaining how the biggest programs are effectively subsidizing smaller ones, why a real collective bargaining structure may eventually be inevitable, and why the sport's true power brokers could soon demand a much larger share of the revenue pie for themselves. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 John Ourand joins the Chuck ToddCast 02:00 Chuck & John’s shared origins at Sports Business Daily 04:30 Who are the new owners of the Seattle Seahawks? 05:15 We are ending the era of the family owned teams 06:15 How did NFL teams double in value in 3 years? 07:15 NFL ownership is a club rich people want to be in 08:00 There are new tax advantages to owning franchises 10:15 Are sports franchise valuations a bubble that could burst? 12:00 The NFL signed $110B in deals in 2 years 12:30 The middle class of sports rights might face a reckoning soon 13:00 The PGA Tour may have cause for concern for media rights 15:30 Streamers are doing just fine with limited packages of games 16:00 If Amazon gave up their rights, the stock price probably goes up 17:45 The NFL conscious of not hurting the business of legacy networks 19:45 Will the leagues move broadcast production in-house? 22:00 Leagues more likely to partner with large production companies 24:30 There’s still a market for investigative sports journalists 27:30 Nobody wants to be the executive that kills journalism at ESPN 28:15 Reporters at ESPN are aware of where the third rail is 29:15 Pablo Torre’s scoop on the Clippers was a journalist’s dream 31:30 How are leagues/players interacting with politics? 32:45 Michael Jordan stayed out of the political fray 34:45 The UFC fight at the White House had huge ratings 35:15 Trump’s involvement in overturning red card possibly boosted ratings 37:30 Caitlin Clark has been great at avoiding be pulled into the culture wars 38:15 Parallels between Larry Bird & Caitlin Clark 40:30 The WNBA isn’t doing enough to capitalize on Clark’s popularity 42:45 Leagues are afraid of race & sexuality debates 43:30 Is Kathy Engelbert the right commissioner for the WNBA? 46:45 How would collective bargaining be organized in college sports? 50:00 The biggest college programs are subsidizing the smaller ones 52:30 Could big programs demand a bigger share of the revenue? 57:45 Where you can find John’s work See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • July 27 · 2 hr 51 min

    Full Episode - The Democrats’ Primary Calendar Is Built To Stymie The Progressive Left In ‘28 + How Money Has Reshaped Professional & College Sports

    Chuck Todd delivers a masterclass on the single most underappreciated force in presidential politics: the primary calendar, which he argues reveals exactly what kind of nominee a party actually wants long before a single vote is cast. He explains that the Democratic decision to put South Carolina first is by design a test of Black support and viability in the South — and one that's deliberately engineered to hurt progressives, who have consistently gotten thumped in South Carolina primaries. He believes that Democrats have badly underinvested in South Carolina and Mississippi, meaning a little TLC could plausibly turn South Carolina into a genuine swing state. The calendar's practical effect, he argues, is that it sets up well for Wes Moore (if he runs) and is nearly as favorable for Pete Buttigieg, while raising the stakes for Kamala Harris to the point that if she doesn't win South Carolina, she's essentially finished. He is sharp on the flaws of the rest of the early window — Nevada isn't the test Democrats claim because the culinary union shapes everything and Arizona would better measure the Latino vote, Michigan is theoretically ideal but is getting torn apart over Israel in ways that could hurt Democrats in a general, and Virginia (now the last stop before Super Tuesday) reliably serves as a bulwark for moderates because it's a center-left rather than hard-left blue state — and he lays out what the ideal calendar would look like for progressives and for MAGA respectively. He's blunt that Ken Martin's leadership of the DNC has been a major problem, questioning whether Democrats really want him refereeing the nomination fight when the party's money troubles are a reflection on Martin himself. He then turns to Trump backing down on Iran yet again — halting strikes less than 12 hours after issuing fresh threats — calling the entire Iran adventure easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century, especially now that an administration once committed to non-proliferation appears to be helping the Saudis with nuclear technology. He notes Democrats nominated Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner, making the Maine Senate seat winnable again even as Trump has made the races in both Maine and Michigan harder, and closes with a run of telling contrasts: the White House openly bragging that it added tariffs to help big tech, data centers emerging as the top issue for voters in many states, Trump calling LeBron James a racist from the Oval Office while Obama quietly reached out to offer Caitlin Clark advice and comfort — a perfect encapsulation, He argues, of one leader who wants to divide and another trying to turn the temperature down. Then, sports business reporter John Ourand — who shares an origin story with Chuck Todd at Sports Business Daily — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a deep dive into the money reshaping professional and college sports. Ourand walks through the sale of the Seattle Seahawks as a signal that the era of family-owned NFL franchises is ending, explaining how team valuations have roughly doubled in just three years thanks to new tax advantages and the simple fact that NFL ownership has become the ultimate status club for the ultra-wealthy. He and Chuck dig into whether these eye-popping valuations constitute a bubble — the NFL alone signed $110 billion in media deals over two years — and whether the sports media "middle class" could be facing a real reckoning even as streamers thrive with smaller game packages. Ourand offers a fascinating look at how leagues are navigating their relationship with the networks and production companies that broadcast them (the NFL is deliberately careful not to hurt the legacy networks it depends on), and defends the enduring value of investigative sports journalism, pointing to Pablo Torre's Clippers reporting as a reminder that nobody, including executives at ESPN, wants to be remembered as the person who killed real journalism at the network. The conversation turns to how sports and politics are increasingly colliding. Ourand contrasts Michael Jordan's studied political neutrality with the modern reality of athletes and leagues getting pulled into culture war fights whether they want to or not, noting the UFC fight at the White House pulled huge ratings and that Trump's involvement in overturning a disputed red card call may have actually boosted viewership. He praises Caitlin Clark for navigating the culture wars more gracefully than almost anyone in sports today, draws a compelling parallel between Clark and Larry Bird, and argues the WNBA under commissioner Kathy Engelbert isn't doing nearly enough to capitalize on the attention Clark has generated — in part because leagues remain skittish about race and sexuality debates they'd rather avoid entirely. Ourand closes with a detailed look at the messy economics of college sports, explaining how the biggest programs are effectively subsidizing smaller ones, why a real collective bargaining structure may eventually be inevitable, and why the sport's true power brokers could soon demand a much larger share of the revenue pie for themselves. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the ratification of the 14th amendment at a time when the idea of birthright citizenship is being called into question, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:30 A primary calendar shows the type of nominee a party wants 03:15 The calendar dictates where candidates spend their time 04:15 The first state on the calendar is massively important 05:00 The Democratic nominee will have to survive South Carolina 05:30 Iowa has gone first for decades 07:15 First in the calendar matters more than anything else 07:45 South Carolina is a test for black support & viability in the south 08:30 South Carolina going first is designed to hurt the viability of progressives 09:15 Going first created robust state parties in Iowa & New Hampshire 10:00 Democrats have underinvested in South Carolina & Mississippi 13:15 Strong state organizations create future candidates & elected reps 14:45 With more TLC, Democrats should be able to make SC a swing state 15:45 South Carolina will determine which candidates are viable 17:15 Progressives have gotten thumped in SC primaries 18:15 Calendar is designed to make life harder for progressives 19:45 The calendar doesn’t always produce the intended candidate 22:00 20% in a crowded field could be enough to win or take 2nd 24:00 If Kamala Harris doesn’t win South Carolina she’s basically out 24:45 On paper, this is a huge boost for Wes Moore if he runs 26:00 Whoever is in 1st place this far out is a measurement of name ID 26:30 New Hampshire Dems are upset about not being first 28:30 Nevada is not the test that Democrats claim it is 29:00 The culinary union shapes the entire state’s politics in Nevada 30:00 The DNC wanted states that could produce same-night results 31:30 Nevada isn’t a good test of the latino vote, Arizona would be better 32:45 In theory, Michigan is a good state to test, but it’s getting divided over Israel 33:30 Israel could get so divisive it could hurt Dems in a general election 34:15 Virginia is now the last state of the early window before Super Tuesday 34:45 Virginia tends to serve as a bulwark for the moderate candidates 36:00 Virginia is a blue state, but it’s a center-left state 37:15 More than any candidate, the table is set for Wes Moore 37:45 The calendar is also good for Pete Buttigieg 39:15 What the best primary calendar would look like for progressives 41:00 What the best MAGA primary calendar would look like 44:00 The calendar dictates who candidates must become during campaign 45:45 Super Tuesday was created to balance out the early base voters 47:30 Legislature control also dictated the creation of this Dem primary calendar 49:15 Ken Martin’s leadership at the DNC has been major problem 50:00 Do Dems want Martin serving as the referee for the nomination fight? 50:45 Martin is clearly not in the right headspace to lead the DNC 51:45 The DNC’s money problems are a reflection on Martin, not the party 52:45 Trump bloviated & issued more threats to Iran & he’s backing down again 53:45 Less than 12 hours after making threats, he halted strikes 54:45 Trump is completely out of ideas on Iran 55:45 Iran is easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century 56:30 For years the goal was non-proliferation, now we’re helping the Saudis? 58:15 If we’re helping Saudis with nuke technology, who are we to tell others no? 59:00 Trump’s personal financial gain may have accelerated this 59:30 Dems nominate Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner 1:00:00 Maine senate is once again a very winnable race for Democrats 1:01:15 Trump has made the races in Michigan and Maine much harder 1:02:15 Trump has no idea what’s going on in American politics, can’t read a room 1:03:00 White House bragged that they added tariffs to help big tech 1:04:15 Data centers are the biggest issue for voters in many states 1:05:45 Trump calls LeBron James a racist at oval office press conference 1:06:45 Obama reached out to give Caitlin Clark advice & words of comfort 1:08:00 Trump showed he wants to divide, Obama tried to turn temperature down 1:09:15 Mrs. Todd’s suggestion for changing the White House Correspondents’ Dinner 1:17:45 John Ourand joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:19:45 Chuck & John’s shared origins at Sports Business Daily 1:22:15 Who are the new owners of the Seattle Seahawks? 1:23:00 We are ending the era of the family owned teams 1:24:00 How did NFL teams double in value in 3 years? 1:25:00 NFL ownership is a club rich people want to be in 1:25:45 There are new tax advantages to owning franchises 1:28:00 Are sports franchise valuations a bubble that could burst? 1:29:45 The NFL signed $110B in deals in 2 years 1:30:15 The middle class of sports rights might face a reckoning soon 1:30:45 The PGA Tour may have cause for concern for media rights 1:33:15 Streamers are doing just fine with limited packages of games 1:33:45 If Amazon gave up their rights, the stock price probably goes up 1:35:30 The NFL conscious of not hurting the business of legacy networks 1:37:30 Will the leagues move broadcast production in-house? 1:39:45 Leagues more likely to partner with large production companies 1:42:15 There’s still a market for investigative sports journalists 1:45:15 Nobody wants to be the executive that kills journalism at ESPN 1:46:00 Reporters at ESPN are aware of where the third rail is 1:47:00 Pablo Torre’s scoop on the Clippers was a journalist’s dream 1:49:15 How are leagues/players interacting with politics? 1:50:30 Michael Jordan stayed out of the political fray 1:52:30 The UFC fight at the White House had huge ratings 1:53:00 Trump’s involvement in overturning red card possibly boosted ratings 1:55:15 Caitlin Clark has been great at avoiding be pulled into the culture wars 1:56:00 Parallels between Larry Bird & Caitlin Clark 1:58:15 The WNBA isn’t doing enough to capitalize on Clark’s popularity 2:00:30 Leagues are afraid of race & sexuality debates 2:01:15 Is Kathy Engelbert the right commissioner for the WNBA? 2:04:30 How would collective bargaining be organized in college sports? 2:07:45 The biggest college programs are subsidizing the smaller ones 2:10:15 Could big programs demand a bigger share of the revenue? 2:15:30 Where you can find John’s work 2:17:00 ToddCast Time Machine - July 28th, 1968 2:17:30 This was the day William Seward certified the 14th Amendment 2:18:15 Some states tried to rescind their certification 2:18:45 Congress declared the amendment ratified 2:19:30 “Who gets to be an American?” was a question the founders left open 2:20:15 Birthright citizenship was an open question at the time 2:20:45 Dred Scott was one of the worst SCOTUS decisions of all time 2:21:30 States tried to reassemble the structures of slavery after the war 2:22:00 Abolishing slavery and securing freedom were two different things 2:22:45 Citizenship couldn’t rest on a law, it had to be in the constitution 2:23:30 Trump vs. Barbara ended with SCOTUS upholding birthright citizenship 2:24:30 The case of Won Kim Ark became foundation of this summer’s ruling 2:25:30 Congress addressed Native American citizenship in 1924 via statute 2:27:30 Someone from anywhere could become an American 2:28:15 Every generation has found new ways to fall short of the American promise 2:29:15 Certification of the 14th amendment is what makes America different 2:30:00 Ask Chuck 2:30:15 Have you seen anything to suggest Trump has a religious faith? 2:33:30 Goal of NDAA integrating more between the U.S. & Israeli militaries? 2:38:30 If a president were convicted and removed via impeachment… What happens next? 2:42:00 Recommendations for political books? 2:47:00 Has the kind of voter fraud cited by Republicans ever changed an outcome? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • July 27 · 1 hr 51 min

    Chuck’s Commentary - The Democrats’ Primary Calendar Is Built To Stymie The Progressive Left In ‘28 + Ken Martin’s Leadership At The DNC Has Been A Disaster

    Chuck Todd delivers a masterclass on the single most underappreciated force in presidential politics: the primary calendar, which he argues reveals exactly what kind of nominee a party actually wants long before a single vote is cast. He explains that the Democratic decision to put South Carolina first is by design a test of Black support and viability in the South — and one that's deliberately engineered to hurt progressives, who have consistently gotten thumped in South Carolina primaries. He believes that Democrats have badly underinvested in South Carolina and Mississippi, meaning a little TLC could plausibly turn South Carolina into a genuine swing state. The calendar's practical effect, he argues, is that it sets up well for Wes Moore (if he runs) and is nearly as favorable for Pete Buttigieg, while raising the stakes for Kamala Harris to the point that if she doesn't win South Carolina, she's essentially finished. He is sharp on the flaws of the rest of the early window — Nevada isn't the test Democrats claim because the culinary union shapes everything and Arizona would better measure the Latino vote, Michigan is theoretically ideal but is getting torn apart over Israel in ways that could hurt Democrats in a general, and Virginia (now the last stop before Super Tuesday) reliably serves as a bulwark for moderates because it's a center-left rather than hard-left blue state — and he lays out what the ideal calendar would look like for progressives and for MAGA respectively. He's blunt that Ken Martin's leadership of the DNC has been a major problem, questioning whether Democrats really want him refereeing the nomination fight when the party's money troubles are a reflection on Martin himself. He then turns to Trump backing down on Iran yet again — halting strikes less than 12 hours after issuing fresh threats — calling the entire Iran adventure easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century, especially now that an administration once committed to non-proliferation appears to be helping the Saudis with nuclear technology. He notes Democrats nominated Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner, making the Maine Senate seat winnable again even as Trump has made the races in both Maine and Michigan harder, and closes with a run of telling contrasts: the White House openly bragging that it added tariffs to help big tech, data centers emerging as the top issue for voters in many states, Trump calling LeBron James a racist from the Oval Office while Obama quietly reached out to offer Caitlin Clark advice and comfort — a perfect encapsulation, He argues, of one leader who wants to divide and another trying to turn the temperature down. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the ratification of the 14th amendment at a time when the idea of birthright citizenship is being called into question, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:30 A primary calendar shows the type of nominee a party wants 03:15 The calendar dictates where candidates spend their time 04:15 The first state on the calendar is massively important 05:00 The Democratic nominee will have to survive South Carolina 05:30 Iowa has gone first for decades 07:15 First in the calendar matters more than anything else 07:45 South Carolina is a test for black support & viability in the south 08:30 South Carolina going first is designed to hurt the viability of progressives 09:15 Going first created robust state parties in Iowa & New Hampshire 10:00 Democrats have underinvested in South Carolina & Mississippi 13:15 Strong state organizations create future candidates & elected reps 14:45 With more TLC, Democrats should be able to make SC a swing state 15:45 South Carolina will determine which candidates are viable 17:15 Progressives have gotten thumped in SC primaries 18:15 Calendar is designed to make life harder for progressives 19:45 The calendar doesn’t always produce the intended candidate 22:00 20% in a crowded field could be enough to win or take 2nd 24:00 If Kamala Harris doesn’t win South Carolina she’s basically out 24:45 On paper, this is a huge boost for Wes Moore if he runs 26:00 Whoever is in 1st place this far out is a measurement of name ID 26:30 New Hampshire Dems are upset about not being first 28:30 Nevada is not the test that Democrats claim it is 29:00 The culinary union shapes the entire state’s politics in Nevada 30:00 The DNC wanted states that could produce same-night results 31:30 Nevada isn’t a good test of the latino vote, Arizona would be better 32:45 In theory, Michigan is a good state to test, but it’s getting divided over Israel 33:30 Israel could get so divisive it could hurt Dems in a general election 34:15 Virginia is now the last state of the early window before Super Tuesday 34:45 Virginia tends to serve as a bulwark for the moderate candidates 36:00 Virginia is a blue state, but it’s a center-left state 37:15 More than any candidate, the table is set for Wes Moore 37:45 The calendar is also good for Pete Buttigieg 39:15 What the best primary calendar would look like for progressives 41:00 What the best MAGA primary calendar would look like 44:00 The calendar dictates who candidates must become during campaign 45:45 Super Tuesday was created to balance out the early base voters 47:30 Legislature control also dictated the creation of this Dem primary calendar 49:15 Ken Martin’s leadership at the DNC has been major problem 50:00 Do Dems want Martin serving as the referee for the nomination fight? 50:45 Martin is clearly not in the right headspace to lead the DNC 51:45 The DNC’s money problems are a reflection on Martin, not the party 52:45 Trump bloviated & issued more threats to Iran & he’s backing down again 53:45 Less than 12 hours after making threats, he halted strikes 54:45 Trump is completely out of ideas on Iran 55:45 Iran is easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century 56:30 For years the goal was non-proliferation, now we’re helping the Saudis? 58:15 If we’re helping Saudis with nuke technology, who are we to tell others no? 59:00 Trump’s personal financial gain may have accelerated this 59:30 Dems nominate Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner 1:00:00 Maine senate is once again a very winnable race for Democrats 1:01:15 Trump has made the races in Michigan and Maine much harder 1:02:15 Trump has no idea what’s going on in American politics, can’t read a room 1:03:00 White House bragged that they added tariffs to help big tech 1:04:15 Data centers are the biggest issue for voters in many states 1:05:45 Trump calls LeBron James a racist at oval office press conference 1:06:45 Obama reached out to give Caitlin Clark advice & words of comfort 1:08:00 Trump showed he wants to divide, Obama tried to turn temperature down 1:09:15 Mrs. Todd’s suggestion for changing the White House Correspondents’ Dinner 1:16:00 ToddCast Time Machine - July 28th, 1968 1:16:30 This was the day William Seward certified the 14th Amendment 1:17:15 Some states tried to rescind their certification 1:17:45 Congress declared the amendment ratified 1:18:30 “Who gets to be an American?” was a question the founders left open 1:19:15 Birthright citizenship was an open question at the time 1:19:45 Dred Scott was one of the worst SCOTUS decisions of all time 1:20:30 States tried to reassemble the structures of slavery after the war 1:21:00 Abolishing slavery and securing freedom were two different things 1:21:45 Citizenship couldn’t rest on a law, it had to be in the constitution 1:22:30 Trump vs. Barbara ended with SCOTUS upholding birthright citizenship 1:23:30 The case of Won Kim Ark became foundation of this summer’s ruling 1:24:30 Congress addressed Native American citizenship in 1924 via statute 1:26:30 Someone from anywhere could become an American 1:27:15 Every generation has found new ways to fall short of the American promise 1:28:15 Certification of the 14th amendment is what makes America different 1:29:00 Ask Chuck 1:29:15 Have you seen anything to suggest Trump has a religious faith? 1:32:30 Goal of NDAA integrating more between the U.S. & Israeli militaries? 1:37:30 If a president were convicted and removed via impeachment… What happens next? 1:41:00 Recommendations for political books? 1:46:00 Has the kind of voter fraud cited by Republicans ever changed an outcome? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • July 23 · 2 hr 34 min

    Full Episode - Trump Is The Biggest Wildcard Of The 2026 Midterms + The Democratic Party's Credibility Problem — And How to Fix It

    With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process. Then, Neera Tanden — president and CEO of the Center for American Progress and a longtime Democratic policy hand — joins the Chuck Toddcast for an unusually candid reckoning with where the party went wrong and what it actually needs to do next. Tanden doesn't soften the verdict: Democrats' one job in 2024 was to keep Trump out of office, and they failed, in part because the establishment let the Biden campaign go on far too long and has consequently lost credibility it hasn't earned back. She argues that in an era where every election is close, Democrats shouldn't be satisfied chasing narrow wins — the actual goal should be a decisive Electoral College victory built around a genuine 60% coalition, especially now that even longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away. Tanden is refreshingly specific on policy: she defends incrementalism as the proven Democratic playbook, argues entrenched Washington interests can block even a clear majority's will, and wants Democrats to build their economic message explicitly around working-class anxieties.They discuss the sharp moral case for the estate tax while cautioning that a wealth tax is nearly impossible to administer fairly year to year and would almost certainly be struck down by this Supreme Court. The conversation turns to the internal Democratic civil war and the road to 2026 and beyond. Tanden argues there's no rise of the DSA without Trump's return, frames the Michigan Senate primary as the real petri-dish test for the left, and is blunt that Democrats in swing states need to remember they're in swing states. She calls for a real, honest autopsy of 2024, and lays out her vision for a Democratic trifecta in 2027: pass bills that directly address the cost of living, investigate the administration's corruption and recognize that Trump's entire contract with his base rests on the promise that he can never lose. Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections 06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months 07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day 08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day 09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans 10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House 11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans 12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats 14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map 14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate 16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate 17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle 18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago 18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year 19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas 21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats 21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses? 22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat 24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against 26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable 27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent 29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not 30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war 31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval 32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party 34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance 35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014 36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans 37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles 37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval 38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers 39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms 40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it 42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports 43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten 44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does 46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives 46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools 47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement 48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this 49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down 50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges 51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed 53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation 53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it 54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players 55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill 57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere 58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut 59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025 59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak 1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK 1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price 1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation 1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal 1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi 1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy 1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC 1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far 1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run? 1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder 1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries 1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club 1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate 1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries 01:14:00 Neera Tanden joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:15:00 Developing ideas for the country’s biggest problems 01:16:30 Democrats have real anger with the Trump administration 01:17:30 Democrats job was to keep Trump out of office & they failed 01:19:00 Pelosi thought Biden would lose and chose to act, but too late 01:20:00 The establishment allowed the Biden campaign to go on too long 01:20:30 The establishment has less credibility than in the past 01:21:15 Longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away from him 01:22:30 Every election is close, never enough for repudiation 01:23:15 Goal should be a large scale electoral college victory 01:25:00 The opportunity to build a 60% coalition 01:27:00 The problems America faces seem to big for incrementalism 01:29:45 The success of the ACA came via incrementalism 01:30:30 Medicare drug price negotiation was a huge win for Biden 01:31:30 Problem with Medicare-for-all is people are changing averse 01:32:30 Entrenched interests in Washington can stop a majority 01:35:30 Dems should organize messaging to include more working class people 01:36:00 Why do we have a trillionaire when people are struggling with basics? 01:36:45 Working class people are more sensitive to crime issues 01:38:00 People are worried about the wealthy having too much power 01:39:30 Inheritance tax would help prevent oligarchy 01:41:00 People are pessimistic their kids won’t do better than them 01:41:30 It feels like the social contract has been eroded in America 01:43:00 If you believe in merit, you should believe in the estate tax 01:44:00 A wealth tax is hard to evaluate year to year 01:44:45 Supreme Court unlikely to find wealth tax constitutional 01:45:45 State wealth taxes are not a good idea 01:47:30 Democracy is undermined when there’s an economic nobility 01:49:00 Attitudes toward inequality were different in the 90s, every group doing better 01:51:15 There’s no rise of the DSA without the return of Trump 01:52:00 Michigan primary will be the petri dish test for the left 01:53:45 Democrats in swing states need to remember they’re swing states 01:54:30 Liberals in Texas thought Talarico was more electable 01:56:30 Progressives winning in blue cities isn’t that big of an issue 01:57:15 DSA needs to be cognizant that they would struggle in swing states 01:59:00 Democratic leadership has stayed the same 02:00:15 Democrats needs to do a real autopsy on 24 02:01:00 Harris being on the ticket saved the Democrats 4 senate seats 02:03:00 If Dems win both chambers, how should they spend 2027? 02:03:45 Dems should pass bills that address the cost of living 02:04:15 The administration’s corruption needs to be investigated 02:05:30 SCOTUS basically gave Trump a pass for illegality, Dems can’t do much 02:06:45 Republicans are starting to break, but they tolerate the intolerable 02:09:15 Trump’s contract with his base is that he can’t lose 02:10:30 Which under the radar senate race do you find most fascinating? 02:11:45 Amy Acton in Ohio will be the canary in the coalmine 02:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties 02:14:00 #5 Oregon 02:15:00 #4 Ohio 02:16:15 #3 Wisconsin 02:18:15 #2 Kansas 02:19:00 #1 Iowa 02:20:00 Ask Chuck 02:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair 02:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin? 02:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time? 02:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida? 02:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
  • July 23 · 1 hr 36 min

    Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Is The Biggest Wildcard Of The 2026 Midterms + RFK Jr. Is Making Measles Great Again

    With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process. Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections 06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months 07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day 08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day 09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans 10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House 11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans 12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats 14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map 14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate 16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate 17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle 18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago 18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year 19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas 21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats 21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses? 22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat 24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against 26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable 27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent 29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not 30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war 31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval 32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party 34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance 35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014 36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans 37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles 37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval 38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers 39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms 40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it 42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports 43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten 44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does 46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives 46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools 47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement 48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this 49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down 50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges 51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed 53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation 53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it 54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players 55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill 57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere 58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut 59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025 59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak 1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK 1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price 1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation 1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal 1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi 1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy 1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC 1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far 1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run? 1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder 1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries 1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club 1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate 1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries 01:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties 01:14:00 #5 Oregon 01:15:00 #4 Ohio 01:16:15 #3 Wisconsin 01:18:15 #2 Kansas 01:19:00 #1 Iowa 01:20:00 Ask Chuck 01:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair 01:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin? 01:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time? 01:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida? 01:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    • Transcript
Showing 41–58 of 58 episodes