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The Bitcoin Layer

The Bitcoin Layer is a premium markets research provider, covering bitcoin through a global macro lens | Research, Analysis, & Education

Featuring Nik Bhatia, author of the #1 Amazon bestseller Layered Money and USC Marshall School of Business professor.

Subscribe to our research publication and YouTube channel to learn about global macroeconomics, bitcoin, Lightning Network, the monetary and financial system, the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and geopolitics. Most importantly, develop a framework for understanding global markets—connect the dots between economic and financial concepts to see the bigger picture. Look no further for your bitcoin and macro education!

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#309
Friday · 7 min
Bitcoin Wants To Run But Liquidity Won’t Let It
In this episode, Demian explains TBL’s analysis of why bitcoin is holding up even as liquidity hit its lowest point of the cycle. He covers how the TBL Liquidity Index works, what a red dot actually signals, and why bitcoin’s own supply and demand have shifted in its favor as the sellers ran out and more than 70% of supply moved into profit. He closes on the three things that would need to ease for liquidity to turn.
#308
Thursday · 15 min
The Math Behind $1 Million Bitcoin
In this episode, Nik explains the bitcoin power law and why he believes it points to a million dollar bitcoin in the early 2030s. He walks through bitcoin’s orders of magnitude, four years to go from $1,000 to $10,000 and eight years to reach $100,000, and why the next zero may take a similar stretch. Nik covers where the power law comes from, the exponent Giovanni Santostasi solved for, and why power laws show up in nature, from the education level of a city to how much an elephant eats. He als
#307
Tuesday · 12 min
Nobody Has Ever Lost Money Holding Bitcoin Six Years
In this episode, Nik explains what he thinks is the easiest way to introduce bitcoin to new investors, which comes down to returns. He compares bitcoin against stocks, bonds, and gold across three, five, seven, and ten year windows, showing where bitcoin trails and where it separates, including the five year stretch where gold and stocks both beat it. Nik then walks through the HODL Cave, which plots returns by holding period and shows that nobody who has held bitcoin for six years has ever lost
#306
October 8 · 26 min
Bitcoin Just Lost $82,700
In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin losing the $82,700 level he had been tracking, falling 3% for a second straight day. He explains why he is watching 71 to 74,000 as the next support, why a negative liquidity environment mutes bitcoin's returns, and why the dollar squeeze building through October is a main reason liquidity is reading negative. Nik also covers gold testing a trend line it has held since 2025, why the ten-year yield may finally be catching a bid after a strong auction, why the t
#305
October 6 · 21 min
Bitcoin Has A 7x To Catch Gold
In this episode, Nik walks through TBL Pulse and the macro charts he watches every day, starting with why bitcoin is climbing while liquidity drains. He explains why the TBL liquidity index has fallen close to the midline that separates expansion from contraction, why rate of change matters more than the level, and why bitcoin performing well in a negative liquidity environment tells him it has entered an early stage of recovery after a deep capitulation. Nik also covers the move index and the d
#304
October 2 · 14 min
Bitcoin Doesn’t Care About The Bond Crisis
In this episode, Nik asks how bitcoin is outperforming both gold and the dollar in the middle of a global bond crisis. He covers why rising yields, bond volatility, and a stronger dollar all point to tighter liquidity, then turns to the French German bond spread and why a move of this size has only happened twice in thirty years. Nik explains where he thinks the European Central Bank would have to step in, why falling oil could ironically rescue the French bond market, and why this crisis may be
#303
September 30 · 21 min
Europe Is About To Print
In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the blowout in French government bond yields against German bunds and why he sees a sovereign debt crisis developing in France. He explains why a falling euro suggests Europe is defending its bond market rather than its currency, and why he is watching for trial balloons of a European money creation event from the ECB or the Bank for International Settlements. Nik then walks through the charts TBL members use most, the MOVE index, the dollar index, and the
#302
September 29 · 48 min
Bitcoin’s Volatility Is Dying (And That’s Bullish)
In this Global Macro Update, Nik walks through a chart pack of more than 100 charts, starting with the bitcoin gold ratio charging back above 20 while global bond markets remain in meltdown. He shows why bitcoin versus gold has tracked bitcoin versus the dollar for its entire life, why treasuries lost more than 27% of their value over five years, and why bitcoin's realized volatility keeps compressing as it gets absorbed into the financial system. Nik explains why that compression should pull in
#301
September 25 · 20 min
Central Banks Have Lost Control
In this episode, Nik welcomes back James Van Straten of CoinDesk for a conversation on the global bond meltdown and the fiscal crisis building in the United Kingdom. James explains why he thinks central banks have lost control, walking through the Bank of England's reversal on gilt sales and why moving that debt to the Treasury does not make it disappear. He covers why the UK housing market has gone no bid as short-term mortgages reset, and why the Bank of England will eventually have to hike to
#300
September 21 · 36 min
The Bear Market Is Over
In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin's move to $87,000 and why breaking $82,700, the post-bear-market high from May, means the bear market that defined 2026 is over. He zooms all the way into one-minute candles to show the short squeeze that took price up more than $1,500 in about 100 seconds, and explains why that resistance level should now act as support. Nik also covers why the four-year cycle theory keeps getting buried, how financialization has compressed bitcoin's volatility, and the break
#299
September 18 · 45 min
Healthcare Is Eating 70% Of Federal Tax Revenue
In this episode, Nik welcomes Stu Lackey and Jon Gordon of SOUND HSA for a conversation on the fiscal side of American healthcare. Nik opens with the charts: almost $4 trillion of the just over $5 trillion the government collects in tax revenue now goes to Medicare, Social Security, and other health spending. Stu and Jon explain how the system got here, why the Medicare trust fund is projected to run out in 2032, and why commercial insurance pays far more than Medicare for identical care. They a
#298
September 15 · 18 min
What Happens If The Fed Hikes Tomorrow
In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the global bond meltdown and what happens to Liquidity if the Fed hikes rates. He starts with bitcoin losing the trend line he had been tracking and slipping from $80,000 back to $76,000, then turns to crude oil above $106 a barrel and why the energy shock, including declining refinery capacity and diesel prices, is repricing inflation expectations worldwide. Nik explains why yields are spiking in the United Kingdom, France, and Japan, why he thinks a cris
#297
September 11 · 1 hr 2 min
The Bond Meltdown Ends In A Global Money Print
In this Global Macro Update, Nik explains why he believes the current global bond meltdown and liquidity contraction will end in a massive global money print. He walks through the global balance sheet, $600 trillion in real assets, $600 trillion in financialized assets, and $600 trillion of banking balance sheet, set against $350 trillion of debt and only $120 trillion of global GDP, and why that math makes repayment in today's dollars impossible. Nik covers why he expects the print in the Unite
#296
September 8 · 31 min
The Most Important Inflation Report Of The Year
In this episode, Nik explains why he thinks this week's inflation data is the most important economic release of the year, with PPI and CPI landing days before the Fed's September 16 decision. He covers why treasury bills lead the Fed and have been pricing hikes since May, how Kevin Warsh ending forward guidance leaves the market guessing into every meeting, and why core CPI running at 0.2% a month makes an immediate hike unlikely while a 0.4% print would change everything. Nik also lays out why
#295
September 4 · 27 min
One Level Decides Bitcoin’s Bull Market
In this episode, Nik covers the strong jobs report and whether it is enough to push the Fed toward a rate hike. He explains why the two-year yield near 4.38% shows the market pricing in hikes more aggressively than at any point since the election, and why he thinks the Treasury and the Fed will instead find a way to force front-end rates lower, given an interest burden approaching a quarter of tax revenue. Nik also covers the 4.81% level on the ten-year, why a flattening yield curve signals dema
#294
September 1 · 31 min
Something Just Broke the Bond Market
In this episode, Nik covers the chaos in global government bond markets, with yields rising from the United States to Japan, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. He explains what actually drives bond yields, why inflation is structurally higher in 2026 than in the last fifteen years, and why Kevin Warsh told G20 finance leaders that the global savings glut is reversing into an investment surge. Nik walks through how the AI buildout is pulling capital out of treasuries, why NVIDIA chips are b
#293
August 28 · 18 min
Bitcoin Just Failed Three Times
In this video, Nik covers the market reaction to Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, starting with the two-year yield pushing back toward its highs near 4.35% and what that says about the market pricing in rate hikes. He explains why the yield curve flattening from 50 to 37 basis points on the week is the move he finds most important, how a flattening curve prices growth out of the economy, and why Michael Howell's read frames it as a premium for safe assets. Nik also revisits the recession call
#292
August 26 · 1 hr 2 min
You've Been Drinking Fiat Wine (And You Feel It) with Ben Justman
In this episode, Nik welcomes Ben Justman, founder of Peony Lane Wine in Paonia, Colorado, the highest wine region in North America. Ben explains how he learned winemaking on his father's farm, why high elevation and dry farming shape his Pinot Noir, and why the 73 ingredients American winemakers can add without putting them on a label led Nik to call it fiat wine. Ben shares that 30 to 50% of his customers pay in bitcoin. Nik covers why the Treasury buybacks are not material, why Bessent has sa
#290
August 19 · 23 min
Global Macro Update: The Real Reason Bitcoin Just Ripped
In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the financial war he sees playing out across treasuries and currencies, and why bitcoin popped above $67,000 on the back of it. He walks through the trend lines he is watching, and why the zone between $70,000 and $82,000 is the work bitcoin has to do before a technical bull market emerges. Nik explains why he calls Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent the Secretary of Volatility, where he thinks Bessent's lines in the sand sit on the dollar and the ten-year y
#291
August 12 · 22 min
Bitcoin Just Went Vertical (Is The Bear Over?)
In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin's 22% week and a run that took price to just shy of $80,000. He walks through the multi-year trend line connecting the FTX lows to the start of the ETF bull market, why bitcoin generates most of its returns in short concentrated bursts, and the bullish divergence that showed up before this move. Nik explains why he thinks the real driver was not the Treasury buyback but the yen intervention and the developing US-Japan monetary alliance, and why Kevin Warsh low

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