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The Bayesian Conspiracy

The Bayesian Conspiracy

A conversational podcast for aspiring rationalists.

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  • 22 episodes
  • fortnightly
  • Avg 1 hr 19 min
  • English

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Episodes 22

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  • Wednesday · 1 hr 46 min

    269 – The Power of Specificity in Argument

    A lot of updates and feedback before the main post. Then we get into The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments by Liron. LINKS The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments The Overhang forecasting & futurism conference in DC I Think Knot read-through podcast of The Knot (or get audio) at HPMORpodcast.com BayesWatch Ordinary Abundance Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:01:14.000 – Side-projects and feedback 00:54:58.000 – Specificity 01:41:12.000 – Guild of the Rose Our Patreon, o

  • August 12 · 1 hr 36 min

    268 – The Other Sexual Orientation & Disappearing the Kinky

    Wes joins us! We discuss Aella’s post The Other Sexual Orientation. Then we find fault with a Kegan-level-4 post about how CNC Kink should be disappeared. LINKS The Other Sexual Orientation A Bad Tweet The Sex & Sensibility Podcast The Details of the HuggingFace Incident AI Message Board via Zvi Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:02:32 – Follow-up on the HuggingFace Incident 00:14:56 – The Other Sexual Orientation 00:37:46 – A Bad Tweet 01:29:57 – Guild of th

  • July 30 · 1 hr 17 min

    267 – HuggingFace Hack & Effective Altruism Funding Flood

    First feedback, then we talk about OpenAI’s latest megamodel independently commiting cybercrime in a world-first incident. Then the Haters who hate altruism when it’s the outgroup’s charities. Also a brief nod to Stochastic Terrorism. LINKS Scott Alexander on the HuggingFace hack The Effective-Altruism Comeback Scanning Tons of Books Against Stochastic Terrorism Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:03:56 – Feedback 00:32:41 – HuggingFace Hack 00:51:48 –

  • July 15 · 1 hr 22 min

    266 – AI2040 Plan A Rundown

    We go through AI2040 Plan A in years. LINKS AI-2040 AskWho Casts Pro Tomas Bjartur’s “The Company Man” and “The Origami Men” Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:04:33 – AI-2040: Plan A 01:14:41 – Guild of the Rose 01:19:52 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in

  • July 1 · 1 hr 18 min

    265 – VibeCamp 5 with Wes, Gina, and Mary

    Steven is joined by the hosts of the Sex and Sensibility podcast! Join us as we explore the vibrant world of VibeCamp, a unique gathering where creativity, curiosity, and community collide. From unconventional events like imagining eating someone to building playgrounds, this episode dives into the eclectic and wholesome spirit of VibeCamp. Join us as we explore the vibrant experiences of Vibe Camp, from highlight events like the solstice and emo night to personal stories of connection, creativi

  • June 11 · 51 min

    264 – Becoming a Romantic with Damon and Ivy

    Eneasz and Steven are at LessOnline/SummerCamp and Steven was lucky enough to attend a short presentation by Damon (Daystar Eld) and Ivy on How to Become a Romantic. The presentation was too short for Steven’s satisfaction, so we found a time slot to record a (too short) episode. LINKS Damon/Daystar Eld Ivy’s X handle and website Guild of the Rose Paid Bonus content for the week – Full Video Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly g

  • May 27 · 1 hr 26 min

    263 – Human Values Were Forged in Malthusian Competition

    Our values are robust against Moloch because they were forged in his flames. LINKS When does competition lead to recognisable values? Our episode 18 – Robin Hanson Interview Chex Quest FarmKind – Animal Welfare Offsets (matching code “cagefree”) Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:03:02 – A Good Post-AGI Future 00:15:07 – Human Values Were Forged in Malthusian Competition 00:52:57 – Feedback 01:24:17 – Guild of the Rose 01:25:23 – Thank the Supporter! Our Pa

  • May 13 · 1 hr 59 min

    262 – EA Veganism Revisited

    In Episode 258 we talked about EA Veganism for a bit… and that bit was not long enough. So here we go again! Fill out Steven’s 3-question survey! LINKS Our episode 258 – How Effective Altruism Has Evolved EA Vegan Advocacy is not truthseeking, and it’s everyone’s problem by Elizabeth Vegan Health Advice by Ozy Dairy […]

  • April 29 · 1 hr 36 min

    261 – The Button That Almost Nuked Glosso Got Eneasz Instead

    The stupid red-button/blue-button discourse came back. Eneasz thought he could sit out this round until Aella went Chaos God with her social media app, Glosso. Fill out our new 2-question survey! LINKS PlzDontKillUs Inkhaven Presents podcast The Knot webfic The Mind Reviver Glosso Stupid Tim Urban with his stupid button-resurrection oh noes, Anthropic employees gonna give […]

  • April 15 · 1 hr 29 min

    260 – The Right to be Wrong About Doom

    We discuss how far the right to be wrong goes, a recent intra-rat kerfuffle, and why random violence is bad. And it’s secretly all about AI Doom. Fill out our 2-question survey! LINKS One Week in the Rat Farm Kelsey’s religious liberalism tweet Scott’s tweet in response to Robby from MIRI Scott’s tweet in reply […]

  • April 1 · 1 hr 52 min

    259 – Chill Out on AI in 2028?

    Matt returns to discuss a post urging us to chill out on AI if there isn’t imminent doom in 2028. There is no video or preshow chat today, due to user error in setting up an in-person video recording. Sorry. 🙁 LINKS Consider chilling out in 2028 The Scary Bridge Kill Your Friend’s Cat The […]

  • March 18 · 1 hr 42 min

    258 – How Effective Altruism Has Evolved

    We talk about three EA-adjacent articles, hitting veganism, directing your donations, and community. LINKS Why you should eat meat – even if you hate factory farming by KatWoods Donations, The Fifth Year, by Jenn Promises, by Harri Bayesian Conspiracy 28 – Effective Altruism The Case For Sardines “oh noes, Anthropic employees gonna give money to […]

  • March 1 · 1 hr 22 min

    257 – Pentagon Comes For Claude

    We relive the last 48 hours of the future of humanity being wrestled over. The Pentagon wants to use Claude for comprehensive mass surveillance of Americans and autonomous kill-bots, and Anthropic says no. The Pentagon retaliates with extreme prejudice. With guest-star Matt. LINKS Washington Post summary Anthropic’s response Trump’s response Hegseth’s unhinged lunacy We Will […]

  • February 18 · 1 hr 36 min

    256 – Writing for LLMs

    We are inspired by Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI to consider the value of writing for LLMs LINKS Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI Gwern’s Writing for LLMs Tracing Woodgrain’s Reliable Sources Shambaugh’s An AI Agent Published a Hit Piece on Me Eneasz’s Stone Age Billionaire Can’t Word Good InkHaven LessOnline The main purpose of the […]

  • February 4 · 1 hr 35 min

    255 – Eneasz goes to CFAR, and Epistemically Honest Reassurance

    Eneasz talks a bit about his CFAR experience, and we discuss DaystarEld’s Epistemically Honest Reassurance LINKS CFAR’s home page Upcoming CFAR workshops our episode 152 – Frame Control with Aella Epistemically Honest Reassurance Pokémon, Origin of the Species (also in audio) Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow chatter, Full Show Video 00:00:56 – […]

  • January 21 · 1 hr 35 min

    254 – The True Theme and Meaning of HPMOR

    WSCFriedman gets to the core of what HPMOR is ACTUALLY about, and finally pinpoints why we love it so much, in his essay Harry Potter And The Methods Of Rationality Is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer. LINKS Audio version of HPMOR is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer, from AskWho William’s blog, […]

  • January 7 · 1 hr 43 min

    253 – The Seven Vicious Vices of Rationalists

    Discussing Ben Pace’s recent post on the Rationalist Vices. LINKS The Seven Vicious Vices of Rationalists (includes AI audio version) Lightcone Fundraiser! 2025 LessWrong Census/Survey Simone & Malcom Collins vs Reporter on whether genes exist MIRI is hiring Slime Mold Time Mold’s long-delayed Lithium response If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies Dear Grom by Eneasz […]

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