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The Bayesian Conspiracy

The Bayesian Conspiracy

A conversational podcast for aspiring rationalists.

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  • 28 episodes
  • weekly
  • Avg 1 hr 22 min
  • English

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Episodes 28

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  • Wednesday · 2 hr

    273 – Vaden Masrani on… Critical Rationalism?

    Crit-rat Vaden Masrani of the Increments podcast joins us to talk about the difference between Critical Rationalism and Bayesian Rationalism. We get kinda side-tracked, Eneasz isn’t happy about it. LINKS Vaden’s Podcast: Increments Eneasz’s post about this episode Winter 2027 AFFINE Alignment Seminar Takeoff Conference GPU World Short Story Contest Economies of Force — Seth Dickinson’s short story TBC 267 – Our HuggingFace Hack Episode Adam Majmudar on the Interpret

  • October 7 · 2 hr 6 min

    272 – Rat Goss, and Podcast Meta

    A bunch of Rationalist gossip and updates, and a meta discussion about the podcast. LINKS Caroline Ellison has joined Manifund TracingWoodgrains on Austin + WBE OpenAI Scraps Release of New AI Model Over Safety Concerns Clause stopped cheating Anthropic gave their AI a biolab Department of War going after Effective Altruism The Economist calls EA “the 21st century’s most important social movement” Our Episode #28 – Effective Altruism AI Pain Vector found AI Torture Chamber built The

  • September 23 · 1 hr 36 min

    271 – PlzDontKillUs, and Tell Your Parents, w Keltan

    We talk to Keltan, from MIRI, about his opinions of short form video, PlzDontKillUs, telling our parents about AI, and how Eneasz’s first short-form video fares. LINKS Keltan’s Twitter (and secret substack, don’t tell him we linked it!) Eneasz’s prior interviews with PlzDontKillUs fellows Milo and Vishal If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies Eneasz’s 7 Reasons video on TikTok, Insta, YouTube, and Twitter Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video Our Pa

  • September 14 · 1 hr 48 min

    270 – The AIs Aren’t Aligned and Everyone Is Finally Noticing, w Matt Freeman

    We asked Matt to come on for a different topic, and we had to pivot to the latest AI stuff because it’s so big. LINKS Rick Rescorla, a 9/11 hero we talk about Our previous episodes on The Void pt1 and pt2, and GPT3 Richard Ngo on how AI Safety only increased Capabilities Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. Le

  • August 26 · 1 hr 46 min

    269 – The Power of Specificity in Argument

    A lot of updates and feedback before the main post. Then we get into The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments by Liron. LINKS The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments The Overhang forecasting & futurism conference in DC I Think Knot read-through podcast of The Knot (or get audio) at HPMORpodcast.com BayesWatch Ordinary Abundance Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:01:14.000 – Side-projects and feedback 00:54:58.000 – Specificity 01:41:12.000 – Guild of the Rose Our Patreon, o

  • August 12 · 1 hr 36 min

    268 – The Other Sexual Orientation & Disappearing the Kinky

    Wes joins us! We discuss Aella’s post The Other Sexual Orientation. Then we find fault with a Kegan-level-4 post about how CNC Kink should be disappeared. LINKS The Other Sexual Orientation A Bad Tweet The Sex & Sensibility Podcast The Details of the HuggingFace Incident AI Message Board via Zvi Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:02:32 – Follow-up on the HuggingFace Incident 00:14:56 – The Other Sexual Orientation 00:37:46 – A Bad Tweet 01:29:57 – Guild of th

  • July 30 · 1 hr 17 min

    267 – HuggingFace Hack & Effective Altruism Funding Flood

    First feedback, then we talk about OpenAI’s latest megamodel independently commiting cybercrime in a world-first incident. Then the Haters who hate altruism when it’s the outgroup’s charities. Also a brief nod to Stochastic Terrorism. LINKS Scott Alexander on the HuggingFace hack The Effective-Altruism Comeback Scanning Tons of Books Against Stochastic Terrorism Paid Bonus content for […]

  • July 15 · 1 hr 22 min

    266 – AI2040 Plan A Rundown

    We go through AI2040 Plan A in years. LINKS AI-2040 AskWho Casts Pro Tomas Bjartur’s “The Company Man” and “The Origami Men” Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:04:33 – AI-2040: Plan A 01:14:41 – Guild of the Rose 01:19:52 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, […]

  • July 1 · 1 hr 18 min

    265 – VibeCamp 5 with Wes, Gina, and Mary

    Steven is joined by the hosts of the Sex and Sensibility podcast! Join us as we explore the vibrant world of VibeCamp, a unique gathering where creativity, curiosity, and community collide. From unconventional events like imagining eating someone to building playgrounds, this episode dives into the eclectic and wholesome spirit of VibeCamp. Join us as […]

  • June 11 · 51 min

    264 – Becoming a Romantic with Damon and Ivy

    Eneasz and Steven are at LessOnline/SummerCamp and Steven was lucky enough to attend a short presentation by Damon (Daystar Eld) and Ivy on How to Become a Romantic. The presentation was too short for Steven’s satisfaction, so we found a time slot to record a (too short) episode. LINKS Damon/Daystar Eld Ivy’s X handle and […]

  • May 27 · 1 hr 26 min

    263 – Human Values Were Forged in Malthusian Competition

    Our values are robust against Moloch because they were forged in his flames. LINKS When does competition lead to recognisable values? Our episode 18 – Robin Hanson Interview Chex Quest FarmKind – Animal Welfare Offsets (matching code “cagefree”) Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:03:02 – A Good Post-AGI Future 00:15:07 – Human […]

  • May 13 · 1 hr 59 min

    262 – EA Veganism Revisited

    In Episode 258 we talked about EA Veganism for a bit… and that bit was not long enough. So here we go again! Fill out Steven’s 3-question survey! LINKS Our episode 258 – How Effective Altruism Has Evolved EA Vegan Advocacy is not truthseeking, and it’s everyone’s problem by Elizabeth Vegan Health Advice by Ozy Dairy […]

  • April 29 · 1 hr 36 min

    261 – The Button That Almost Nuked Glosso Got Eneasz Instead

    The stupid red-button/blue-button discourse came back. Eneasz thought he could sit out this round until Aella went Chaos God with her social media app, Glosso. Fill out our new 2-question survey! LINKS PlzDontKillUs Inkhaven Presents podcast The Knot webfic The Mind Reviver Glosso Stupid Tim Urban with his stupid button-resurrection oh noes, Anthropic employees gonna give […]

  • April 15 · 1 hr 29 min

    260 – The Right to be Wrong About Doom

    We discuss how far the right to be wrong goes, a recent intra-rat kerfuffle, and why random violence is bad. And it’s secretly all about AI Doom. Fill out our 2-question survey! LINKS One Week in the Rat Farm Kelsey’s religious liberalism tweet Scott’s tweet in response to Robby from MIRI Scott’s tweet in reply […]

  • April 1 · 1 hr 52 min

    259 – Chill Out on AI in 2028?

    Matt returns to discuss a post urging us to chill out on AI if there isn’t imminent doom in 2028. There is no video or preshow chat today, due to user error in setting up an in-person video recording. Sorry. 🙁 LINKS Consider chilling out in 2028 The Scary Bridge Kill Your Friend’s Cat The […]

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