Supply Chain Secrets

NYSHEX

The Supply Chain Secrets Podcast cuts through the noise to bring you real, unfiltered insights from the front lines of global logistics. Whether you’re a shipper, NVO, carrier, or just someone who needs to stay ahead of market shifts, we deliver analysis and hard-hitting conversations that actually matter. Visit nyshex.com/podcast to register to attend live!

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Tuesday · 19 min
Caroline's Final Episode Cracks the Pacific Rate Mystery
This week's Supply Chain Secrets doubles as Caroline Weaver's send off as co-host, and she goes out with the market question everyone's been asking: why have Pacific spot rates gone so volatile? In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why June and July cargo data show no demand boom on the Pacific, and why the recent spot rate spikes are capacity driven instead How the Asia-Europe rate cooldown is following a normal seasonal pattern this time, backed by genuine demand growth Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and new attacks on container vessels in the Black Sea Why direct port to port service is less commoditized across alliances than most shippers assume Thank you to Caroline for your energy and insights on the show! And, don't worry listeners. The show will go on! Rich Heath, NYSHEX's VP of Financial Products, takes over alongside Lars Jensen starting next week. Sign up for weekly podcast highlights and never miss insider intel!
September 1 · 21 min
Reliability Just Hit Its Worst Mark Since Before the New Alliances
Ocean carrier reliability just hit its lowest point since before the current alliance structure took effect, with typhoon-driven port congestion in Asia dragging Shanghai down to just 21% on-time arrivals in July. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Global vessel reliability at 56% for July, and the 40 percentage point gap separating Gemini's 89.5% from Premier Alliance's sub-50% performance NYFI's Asia-US sub-lane data, including Northeast Asia's role as a swing capacity market and a fresh split between US East and West Coast rates Suez Canal normalization now at 19% of Asia-Europe capacity, and what it means for demand growth if that reaches 50% A reopened split between 20-foot and 40-foot rates on the Trans-Atlantic Westbound lane, plus Q4 bunker and emissions surcharge changes
August 24 · 28 min
Panama Canal Tightens Transits Ahead of Chinese New Year Rush
New restrictions from the Panama Canal Authority are cutting daily transits starting in September, well ahead of the Chinese New Year peak season shippers depend on that route to serve. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why the canal authority is acting early, and what a 34% drop in rain inflow to Lake Gatun means for shippers who haven't built contingency plans A Transpacific market sending mixed signals: Southeast Asia rates spiking, Northeast Asia to US East Coast rates dropping almost 30% in a week, and a rate spread on Asia-US East Coast now as wide as it was at the summer peak Updates on the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz standoff with Iran, and the new US-Canada tariff breakdown Why the Northern Sea Route remains more hype than real capacity, and where FMC Chairman Laura DiBella's net zero framework comments leave the November IMO vote Receive weekly show notes and charts in your inbox
August 18 · 25 min
Overcapacity Looks Unavoidable in 2027-2028: Here's the Math.
Pacific spot rates are flatlining on average, but the spread between the highest and lowest payers just hit its widest point in months, a sign the market has no real conviction on where this goes next. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver break down what's actually driving ocean freight this week. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Asia-USWC/USEC spreads widening sharply while average rates hold flat, and what that phantom GRI risk means for shippers NOAA's latest El Niño forecast for the Panama Canal and the draft restrictions likely coming this fall Red Sea normalization update as more carriers shift back to Suez routing The order book math: why fleet growth may already be outpacing true demand, and what that means for capacity heading into 2027 and 2028 Subscribe to weekly podcast highlights
August 10 · 28 min
Rates Flatline as Red Sea Starts Reopening
NYFI held flat for a fourth straight week, and the June CTS data explains why the Transpacific demand story isn't what the headlines suggest. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why NYFI and SCFI track different things by design (SCFI is a forward-looking quote, NYFI reflects cargo already loaded), and how to spot a phantom GRI before you pay for one June CTS data showing Transpacific demand and capacity both flat year over year, while Asia-Europe, Asia-South America, and Asia-Africa post double-digit growth Red Sea normalization signals: OOCL's new Bab el-Mandeb service and Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd shifting the AE15 and AE19 Gemini services back to Suez Panama Canal draft cuts ahead of El Niño, plus low water on the Rhine and Amazon squeezing inland moves Sign up for weekly podcast highlights
August 3 · 22 min
Same Trade Lane, Different Numbers: Decoding Freight Indices
Ocean freight rates are past peak season on the Transpacific and Asia-North Europe, but a widening gap between the NYFI and SCFI on Asia-US West Coast is raising questions about which number actually reflects the market. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why NYFI and SCFI measure fundamentally different things, and how to spot a "phantom GRI" before it costs you What index-linked contracts actually protect you from, and how to pick the right index for your business The current East Coast/West Coast rate divergence and what's driving it Escalating Middle East shipping risk, including the attack on tankers in Damietta, and why carrier profits aren't proof of market manipulation Sign up for weekly podcast highlights and never miss valuable intel.
July 27 · 21 min
Reliability Stalls: Why Gemini and Premier Are Nearly 40 Points Apart
Global schedule reliability slipped again in June, and the gap between carrier alliances is now too wide to ignore. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: June reliability data: global on-time performance down to 63% from 65% in May, holding well below pre-pandemic norms for months running The alliance breakdown: Gemini at 93.4%, its best showing since launch, versus MSC around 80%, Ocean Alliance around 70%, and Premier Alliance down near 55% How Sea-Intelligence actually measures reliability, including the three to four week lock-in window and why plus/minus one calendar day is the right yardstick, not the wrong one NYFI this week: Asia-USWC down 1% to $5,818, Asia-USEC up 7% to $7,793, driven by a capacity split between the two coasts, and Asia-NEUR down 3% at $4,797. Sign up for weekly podcast highlights
July 20 · 15 min
From Hormuz to the Amazon: A Market Under Pressure
Ocean freight this week is a study in divergence: Pacific rates are splitting by coast, Asia-Europe spreads are widening, and a new blockade declaration just widened the Middle East risk map. Even Lars's connection from France needed a reroute this week: his audio came through rough enough that part of the episode runs on AI voiceover instead. Turns out signal disruption isn't just a shipping lane problem. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why Northeast Asia is pushing USWC rates up 14.6% while pulling USEC rates down 1.6%, in the same week The Houthis' newly declared blockade on Saudi Arabia, and why it threatens the last working bypass route around the Strait of Hormuz Rising bunker costs, a new 25% Section 301 tariff on Brazil, and a US inventory picture that Lars calls "walking on a knife edge" Low water surcharges now hitting the St. Lawrence Seaway, the Rhine, and the Amazon, all at once Subscribe to weekly highlights
July 14 · 21 min
Why the Hormuz Toll Doesn't Survive the Math
President Trump says he'll charge a 20% toll on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Lars Jensen ran the numbers, and they don't hold up. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: The math behind why a 20% Hormuz toll could work out to record freight rate highs, and why no shipper would pay it. Who would even be billed, and why the US has no realistic way to collect if a carrier just refuses. Seven attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz this week alone, and what "open" actually means when ships are still getting hit. Asia-USWC rates flatten, but the shipper-to-shipper spread nearly tripled in a month. Maersk extends its Suez return with two more services despite the Hormuz risk. Subscribe for weekly podcast highlights
July 6 · 26 min
Pacific Peak or Phantom Spike? And the Return to Suez Begins.
Pacific spot rates are holding flat while futures signal the peak may already be over, and Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd just made a move that could mark the beginning of a Red Sea normalization after two and a half years of disruption. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why Asia-USWC rates are flatlining around $5,200 while the futures curve still points sharply lower, and what that means for the rest of July The Gemini alliance's AE15 service switching back to Suez routing and what it signals about carrier confidence in Red Sea stability Panama Canal draft restrictions tightening through August as El Niño risk grows, and what history says about the ceiling on disruption Maersk's upward earnings revision and why it says more about Maersk's earlier pessimism than the overall market USMCA uncertainty and what a US pullback could mean for deeply intertwined North American supply chains EU shipping emissions data: container vessels down 6.7% per TEU year over year, even as total emissions remain elevated versus 2023 due to Red Sea rerouting Subscribe to weekly episode highlights delivered to your inbox.
June 29 · 21 min
West Coast Rates Entangle East Coast: What That Signal Means
Transpacific spot rates are skyrocketing while Asia-North Europe tells a completely different story, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most container traffic after a week of missile exchanges between Iran and the US. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why Asia-US West Coast spot rates are approaching East Coast levels and what that historically signals about market instability What the $1,600 gap between current Pacific spot rates and July futures is telling the market The latest in the Hormuz crisis, including the attack on the Ever Lovely and what the "evacuation" language from IMO actually means for container shipping Port connectivity winners and losers: how Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, and Sharjah are absorbing volume while Gulf ports go dark Tariff uncertainty heading into July 24, when Section 122 tariffs expire with no clear successor Subscribe to weekly podcast highlights sent directly to your inbox.
June 22 · 22 min
Schrödinger's Strait: Is Hormuz Open, Closed, or Both?
Asia-North Europe rates are up another $400 week over week, the futures curve points higher still, and the Strait of Hormuz is open, closed, and open again depending on which hour you check. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cut through the noise on all of it. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates at $3,563 and climbing, with July futures pointing $740 higher than current levels and August expectations also revised up. Asia-USWC at $4,264, up 6.3% week over week, with futures suggesting the Pacific apex may already be here Why the spread on Asia-USEC has widened to $2,000 between the 10th and 90th percentile -- and what that means for how you interpret the index relative to your own rates The Hormuz situation: an MoU, a declaration it was open, a declaration it was closed, vessels doing U-turns, and talks ongoing in Switzerland all within 72 hours Why CMA-CGM permanently shifting its FAL 3 service back to Suez on the backhaul is about capitalizing on peak season capacity, not just route normalization A fifth piracy attempt in two weeks in the Gulf of Aden, why ultra-large container ships have a natural defense, and why smaller vessels are at greater risk Click here to access detailed NYFI PRO charts discussed in this episode Subscribe to weekly podcast highlights sent directly to your inbox
June 16 · 24 min
Rate Rally, Hormuz Memorandum, and an 88% Chance of El Niño
Rates on Asia-North Europe and Asia-US West Coast are surging, a US-Iran memorandum of understanding has been signed, and El Niño is now official with an 88% chance of being historically severe. This week Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cut through the noise on all three. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates up $1,000 in a month with futures pointing higher still, and Asia-USWC breaking above $4,000 per 40-foot with a volatility spike driving record hedging activity using the NYFI index Why the rate rally is being driven by supply and demand fundamentals, not Hormuz fuel surcharges, and what CMA-CGM's $4,000 peak season surcharge announcement signals about carrier confidence The US-Iran memorandum of understanding: what it says, what it does not say, and why AIS data showed no change in vessel movement through the strait in the first 48 hours Piracy resurgence in the Gulf of Aden and three attacks in two days including one on a Maersk feeder vessel El Niño confirmed and now forecast as potentially the strongest on record: what Panama Canal shippers need to plan for now Subscribe to weekly podcast CliffsNotes sent directly to your inbox.
June 8 · 31 min
Supply, Demand, and Three Crises: What's Actually Moving Rates Right Now
Spot rates on Asia-Europe and Transpacific are climbing fast. The easy explanation is Hormuz. The right explanation is supply and demand, and the data Lars Jensen pulled this week makes the case clearly. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates have now exceeded the Chinese New Year peak and are closing in on summer 2025 levels, with futures pointing higher. Asia-USWC and USEC continue their sustained upward trend Why the rate surge is driven by demand outpacing capacity, not fuel surcharges: Asia-Europe demand up 12%, Transpacific up 11% in April, with capacity failing to keep pace on both trades Why the 22% capacity injection planned for Asia-Med in July is a Hormuz spillover effect, not a true demand signal, and what it means for peak season Hormuz update: Iran-Israel escalation, EU sanctions on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Houthi re-entry into the conflict, and what closing Bab el-Mandeb would mean for Persian Gulf bypass routes Panama Canal draft restrictions effective July 3rd, what El Niño means for Lake Gatun water levels, and why Lars sees the early action as a positive sign Why Panamanian flag vessel registrations are dropping 1% per month and what the US-China geopolitical battle has to do with it Download this week's NYFI Read Log in to NYSHEX PRO and view the data: Asia-North Europe Asia-USWC/USEC
June 1 · 28 min
Consumer Sentiment, Container Volumes, and Why the Correlation Doesn't Exist
Rates are climbing, carriers are piling on surcharges, and peak season is arriving ahead of schedule. This week Lars Jensen runs the numbers on why the market is where it is and it has everything to do with the Red Sea and almost nothing to do with how consumers are feeling. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why Pacific and Asia-Europe spot rates continue their upward momentum and what the futures curve is signaling for peak season, including a sharp expected pullback as early as September The statistical relationship between US consumer sentiment and container volumes: Lars ran the analysis and the correlation coefficient is 0.3. There effectively isn't one. Hormuz update: no deal, drone strikes on Kuwait, a suspected mine in Omani waters, and an MSC 18,000 TEU vessel that went dark for five days and reappeared off West Africa How CMA-CGM continues to quietly expand its Suez routing while every other carrier goes around Africa China PMI at exactly 50, and why the raw materials sub-index shooting above 60 post-Hormuz is the inflation signal worth watching Global trade imbalances since 2019: full containers up 17%, fleet up 43%, TEU miles up 41% and empty container movements up 102%
May 26 · 27 min
Peak Season Is Loading: Supply, Demand, and a New Hormuz Attack
Freight rates on both Asia-Europe and Transpacific are strengthening and this week Lars breaks down why the driver is fundamentals, not Hormuz. Meanwhile, a vessel explosion in the Gulf of Oman adds fresh tension to an already fragile situation. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why capacity injection on Asia-North Europe and Transpacific is running well below demand growth, and what that means for peak season rates A breaking report of a vessel explosion in the Gulf of Oman and what it signals about the state of the Hormuz conflict The five and a half billion dollar added fuel cost burden on the container shipping industry over the past three months and how it compares to total industry EBIT Gemini Alliance reliability bouncing back to 85% and a standout 98.5% on Asia-US West Coast The UK ETS taking effect July 1st and the loophole it closes for carriers routing through UK ports US consumer sentiment hitting its lowest reading since 1952, and whether that translates to freight demand
May 18 · 24 min
Hormuz Holds, El Niño Looms: Stacking the Risks for 2027
Transpacific rates are grinding higher into peak season while the Hormuz crisis shows no sign of resolution, and a new weather risk is quietly building for the Panama Canal. In this episode, Lars Jensen and guest host Don Davis cover: NYFI spot rate momentum on Asia-US West Coast and Asia-Europe, and what futures rates suggest for the next two months Iran's tightening grip on Strait of Hormuz traffic, including vessel seizures and a potential threat to subsea data cables CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd suspending Cuba bookings following new US sanctions A NOAA upgrade placing a 67% probability on a strong or very strong El Niño, and what that means for Panama Canal capacity heading into 2027 Q1 2026 carrier results: Maersk gained market share; Hapag-Lloyd volume declined year-on-year
May 11 · 17 min
Peak Season Incoming, Hormuz Holds, and Global Demand Takes a Hit
Pacific rates are flatlining but peak season signals are building, with freight futures pointing to a $900 per FEU jump on Asia-North Europe by July. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, global container demand fell 2.4% year-on-year in March, and Maersk posted a second consecutive quarter of negative EBIT. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Rate movements across Asia-US West Coast, Asia-US East Coast, and Asia-North Europe, including what freight futures are signaling for peak season The latest Hormuz developments including two new vessel attacks and the short-lived US military escort operation March global demand data: why the headline -2.4% masks a world that is otherwise still growing at 5-8% Maersk Q1 results and what two consecutive quarters of negative EBIT signals for carrier health
May 4 · 29 min
The Crisis That Isn't Moving Global Rates
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for two months, yet TransPacific and Asia-Europe freight rates are barely moving compared to the disruptions of 2024-2025. This week, Lars and Caroline put the Hormuz crisis in proper context and cover the other headlines reshaping ocean freight. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why Pacific and Asia-Europe spot rates are rising on seasonality, not the Hormuz crisis, and what the futures market is signaling for peak season Live updates from the Strait of Hormuz: vessel escorts, Iranian attacks, and why seafarers face higher risk inside a military convoy than outside one How Khor Fakkan scaled from 100 to 6,000 trucks per day to route cargo around a closed strait China's new blocking statutes, the EU analog that already exists, and why compliance is now a lose-lose for many companies The MEPC decision expanding ECA coverage to the Northeast Atlantic and the net zero framework clinging to life support ahead of November
April 27 · 23 min
Hormuz Escalates, Plastics at Risk, and Reliability Still Broken
Iran has seized two MSC vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, bookings into the Persian Gulf have collapsed 66% year over year, and Somali pirates are back. The maritime risk picture is deteriorating fast. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Transpacific NYFI movements by subtrade, including why Northeast Asia rates are more volatile than other origins Why 20-foot and 40-foot rates on the Transatlantic have completely decoupled -- and what that means if you're shipping dense cargo Asia-North Europe spot rates weakening toward pre-crisis levels, while futures markets signal a recovery into May Iran seizing MSC vessels, the Hormuz closure, and the return of Somali piracy Plastics supply risk: why a Dow Chemical warning about ethylene and polyethylene shortages should be on every importer's radar Ocean carrier reliability at 62% -- why the industry has systematically underperformed pre-pandemic norms, and what that means for global capacity

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