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August 20 · 6 min
Daily Briefing — August 20, 2026 | The Treasury Steps In, Yields Fall, Then Iran Sends Them Right Back Up
The Treasury Department's surprise move to more than double its long-dated debt buybacks sends yields sharply lower and stocks rallying Wednesday, only for the relief to reverse Thursday after President Trump vows a "crushing economic operation" against Iran and sends oil prices higher again. We cover why the 30-year Treasury yield's climb to a near-20-year high forced the government's hand, Moderna's roughly 140% surge on strong trial results, and South Korea's Kospi jumping nearly 6% in a single session on the same lower-yield tailwind. We also cover bitcoin's dramatic swing, briefly topping $71,800 before paring gains, as crypto reacted to this week's bond-market drama even more sharply than equities did, and Procyon's Massimo Santicchia on the growing tension between strong fundamentals and a genuinely higher cost of capital. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
August 17 · 9 min
Daily Briefing — August 17, 2026 | A Paused Core Conflict, New Regional Flashpoints, and a Big Week for Retail Earnings
Markets waver Monday after fresh violence in Lebanon and a deadly Houthi strike on a cargo ship in the Red Sea, even as the core exchange of strikes between the US and Iran remains paused and Jared Kushner pursues Gaza ceasefire talks with Hamas in Egypt. We cover the ongoing dispute over the real state of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs' more cautious read on US consumer spending heading into a major week of retailer earnings from Home Depot, Target, and Walmart, and a $22.9 billion Navy contract for Raytheon tied directly to the conflict's toll on US munitions supplies. We also cover Wednesday's planned White House meeting on crypto regulation with SEC and CFTC leadership, and China's Unitree completing a record-breaking humanoid robotics IPO on Shanghai's STAR Market. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
August 15 · 9 min
Weekend Briefing — August 15, 2026 | A Sharp Retail Sales Miss, a 25-Year-High Bond Yield, and the Week That Split the Economy in Two
July retail sales fall a sharp 0.6%, and consumer sentiment deteriorates further, closing out a week where the S&P 500 still notched its first-ever close above 7,800 and a third consecutive winning week. We unpack the genuine puzzle underneath it all: falling Fed rate-hike odds paired with the government's highest 30-year bond yield in 25 years, and fresh Goldman Sachs scrutiny over how hyperscalers are financing their AI infrastructure buildout after Broadcom's 6% weekly slide. We also cover SanDisk's big investor-day rally, Cisco and Applied Materials both falling despite strong results, gold's continued climb past $4,430 an ounce, and a strong week for media stocks alongside fresh takeover speculation around Workday. We close with a preview of next week's major retailer earnings from Home Depot, Target, Walmart, and others, and a look ahead to Nvidia's highly anticipated August 26th report. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
August 14 · 8 min
Daily Briefing — August 14, 2026 | The S&P Tops 7,800 as a Week of Falling Rate-Hike Odds Closes Out
The S&P 500 closes above 7,800 for the first time ever after a soft July Producer Price Index report, capping a week that saw September rate-hike odds collapse from roughly 55% to around 34%. We cover the notable split within Thursday's PPI data, where wholesale goods prices actually fell even as services costs kept climbing, and GDS Wealth Management's read on why the Fed's real path to taming inflation runs through the Middle East rather than any single data print. We also cover oil's sharp Thursday drop amid a genuine, contested dispute over how much control the US actually has over the Strait of Hormuz, a mixed batch of AI-adjacent earnings from Cerebras, Applied Materials, and Super Micro Computer, Netflix's jump on a new Bill Ackman stake, and the yen's continued slide toward 160 against the dollar. We close with a preview of today's retail sales and University of Michigan consumer sentiment data, the final pieces of one of the most data-packed weeks of the summer. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
August 13 · 8 min
Daily Briefing — August 13, 2026 | A Calm CPI Report, a Wild Week for Rate Odds, and PPI Up Next
July's CPI report lands exactly in line with forecasts, pushing the S&P 500 to a fresh record and sending September rate-hike odds down to around 40%, capping off a week that saw those same odds swing from 55% to 42% to over 50% and back again. We cover why oil's continued climb above $83 a barrel means yesterday's relief may not carry forward, Nebius Group's 34% surge on strong AI infrastructure earnings, Apple's reported talks with publishers over an AI-powered Siri overhaul, and a genuine analyst split on where gold goes from here. We preview today's Producer Price Index report, remarks from Fed officials Hammack and Barkin, and the still-unresolved Strait of Hormuz situation, alongside earnings from Applied Materials, JD.com, NetEase, and Tapestry. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
August 12 · 8 min
Daily Briefing — August 12, 2026 | The CPI Report That Could Decide the Fed's Next Move
Markets brace for the July Consumer Price Index, the most consequential inflation data left before the Fed's September meeting, with economists expecting the annual rate to ease slightly to 3.4% even as a rebound in the monthly figure is expected after June's unusually sharp decline. We cover why today's number matters so much for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh after last month's split 9-3 hold, and look back at two straight down days for stocks driven by fading hopes for a Strait of Hormuz resolution, including Alphabet's fourth losing session in five. We also cover real, measurable supply tightening through the strait as crude exports fall and Saudi Aramco delays a refinery restart, gold's stretched but still-remarkable August rally, and today's earnings from Cisco and Bloomin' Brands. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
August 11 · 8 min
Daily Briefing — August 11, 2026 | A Contradiction From Iran, a Whipsaw in Rate Odds, and Datadog's Standout Week
Oil surges and stocks slip Monday after Iran says talks with Oman are nearing agreement while denying any direct negotiation with the US — the same contradiction pattern markets have wrestled with for days — pushing September rate-hike odds back above 50% just one trading day after falling to 42%. We cover Intel's selloff following a $15 billion stock offering, Nvidia's pullback despite reports of a $500 billion AI infrastructure financing partnership with Apollo Global and Blackstone, and BTIG technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky's read on why markets may be growing desensitized to this cycle of Middle East headlines. We also cover Datadog's standout two-day rally on strong earnings, a rough stretch for optical and networking names including Coherent and Lumentum, and smaller stories on AbCellera Biologics' huge single-day jump, Archer Aviation's Boeing acquisition, and shifts in India's Nifty 50 index. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
August 10 · 9 min
Daily Briefing — August 10, 2026 | Inflation Takes Over, With Rate-Cut Optimism Riding on the Outcome
After the best week for US stocks since April, driven by a surprising July jobs decline that slashed September rate-hike odds from 55% to 42% overnight, attention shifts fully to this week's inflation data. We cover the genuinely mixed forecasts heading into Wednesday's CPI report, oil's climb this morning on renewed uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, and a Deutsche Bank strategist's framing of how the Iran negotiation question has shifted from whether a deal happens to what its final terms will actually look like. We preview CoreWeave's earnings later this week as the latest test of whether AI infrastructure spending is converting into durable profit, alongside Applied Materials' report from the supply side of that same story, and cover Bank of America's bullish sentiment survey and Fundstrat's Tom Lee sticking with his call for the S&P 500 to reach 8,000. We close with what to watch in gold and silver this week, and a note on Rheinmetall's guidance cut. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
August 9 · 6 min
Weekend Briefing — August 9, 2026 | A Near-Deal on Hormuz Management, but Not on Reopening It
Iran and Oman signal they're nearing a deal on managing the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran's own Supreme National Security Council draws a sharp line, saying full reopening depends on a list of demands including a US withdrawal and compensation that observers call highly unlikely to be met. We cover a fresh weekend strike on a UAE-owned tanker even as those talks proceed, notable CNN reporting that America's top general is privately pushing for an "off-ramp" from the conflict, a separate Yemeni military strike on Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, and questions raised by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's continued public absence. We close with a sober look at the conflict's toll after roughly five and a half months, what this means for how oil could open Monday, and a preview of this week's critical CPI and PPI inflation data. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
August 8 · 8 min
Weekend Briefing — August 8, 2026 | A Weak Jobs Report, a Record S&P, and Why Wall Street Cheered Anyway
The US economy unexpectedly loses 23,000 jobs in July, wage growth cools to its slowest pace since 2021, and the unemployment rate falls for the least encouraging reason possible — yet the S&P 500 closes the week at a fresh record. We unpack why markets read weak labor data as good news for Fed policy, the nuance underneath the headline number including a government-jobs-driven decline and sizable downward revisions to May and June, and a second straight winning week that saw chip stocks stage a real comeback. We also cover SpaceX's striking 11% rebound after a brutal prior week, Airbnb and Microchip Technology's strong earnings against The Trade Desk's steep selloff, gold breaking above $4,400 an ounce, and a preview of next week's CPI and PPI inflation reports. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
August 7 · 9 min
Daily Briefing — August 7, 2026 | The Jobs Report That Has to Reconcile a Very Confusing Labor Market
Markets brace for the July nonfarm payrolls report after a genuinely contradictory run of recent data — record-low layoffs and weekly jobless claims sitting alongside a badly missed ADP private hiring number and soft job openings. We cover why today's release could determine whether the Fed sticks to its currently priced single rate hike or moves toward as many as three by year-end, and look back at Thursday's session, where the Dow snapped its record win streak on rising yields, a SanDisk-led chip selloff, and lingering Hormuz deal uncertainty. We also cover the final stage of SpaceX's IPO lockup expiration and the stock's surprisingly calm reaction, Peloton's first profitable fiscal year paired with a cautious outlook, renewed overnight geopolitical tension pushing oil higher, and Fundstrat's Tom Lee predicting a continued rally toward 7,900 to 8,000 on the S&P 500 this month. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
August 5 · 10 min
Daily Briefing — August 5, 2026 | Three Straight Record Closes, Oil Under $79, and a Possible Hormuz Deal
US markets notch a third consecutive record close after Palantir's stock surges nearly 30% on a 93% revenue jump, Amazon briefly crosses $3 trillion in market value, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could land as soon as today. We cover oil's dramatic slide from above $100 to under $79 a barrel in under two weeks, a genuinely encouraging July ISM manufacturing report showing the first employment expansion in 33 months, and the more tempered overnight reception to earnings from SpaceX and AMD. We also look at Asian markets rallying sharply on the same Hormuz optimism, gold's third straight day of gains near $4,150 an ounce, and a note of caution as US margin debt hits an all-time high. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
August 4 · 8 min
Daily Briefing — August 4, 2026 | A Record High, an Iranian Denial, and SpaceX's First Earnings
Markets wake up to a much murkier picture than Monday's record close suggested, after Iran publicly denied Trump's claim that talks were underway, and Trump followed with sharply escalated rhetoric describing the moment as a last chance before what he called decapitation. We cover why Asian markets failed to follow Wall Street's Monday rally, with doubts about the AI trade resurfacing and chip stocks in South Korea sliding again, alongside a look back at last week's violent momentum-stock whiplash tied partly to a forced hedge fund unwind at Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund. We also preview SpaceX's first-ever public earnings report tonight, with the stock down more than 50% from its post-IPO peak, Deutsche Bank's bullish long-term price target, and a looming insider share-lockup expiration just two days away. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
August 3 · 9 min
Daily Briefing — August 3, 2026 | Oil Tumbles as Trump Calls Off a Strike, and a Packed Week Begins
Oil sinks and stocks rally to open August after President Trump cancels a planned "massive" strike on Iran and says new talks begin today — even as Iran itself has yet to publicly confirm any of it. We cover Brent's sharp drop toward $84, the Dow leading US gains while small caps lag behind, and the relief rally spreading to European and Indian markets, including a bumpy debut for a new end-of-day pricing system on India's National Stock Exchange. We preview a genuinely packed week ahead: ISM manufacturing data today, JOLTS and productivity figures midweek, Friday's critical nonfarm payrolls report, and earnings from Palantir, AMD, SpaceX, Disney, and dozens of others. We also cover Prysmian's acquisition of Atkore, SpaceX's continued slide since its June IPO, and MicroStrategy's latest bitcoin and capital-raising moves. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
August 2 · 7 min
Weekend Briefing — August 2, 2026 | Trump Halts a Strike, Iran Stays Silent, and a Tanker Gets Hit Anyway
President Trump says he's calling off a planned attack on Iran, contingent on a rapid deal, and points to progress in Iran-Oman talks over managing the Strait of Hormuz — but Iranian state media has yet to acknowledge broader negotiations are even happening, and ships remain stuck in both the strait's northern and southern corridors. We cover the tension between that diplomatic opening and a fresh strike on a Qatar-linked LNG carrier over the weekend, the US Treasury's decision to tighten Iranian oil sanctions on the very same day, and Iran's parallel warning of a decisive response to any renewed US or Israeli action. We close with a sober look at the conflict's cumulative toll on shipping and seafarers over the past five months, and a brief preview of this week's nonfarm payrolls and ISM manufacturing data. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
August 1 · 9 min
Daily Briefing — July 29, 2026 | A Hawkish Fed, a Resumed War, and Big Tech's Split Verdict
Markets suffer their worst Fed-decision day in over a year and a half after Iran launches a surprise missile attack ending the recent lull in fighting, and the Federal Reserve holds rates steady on a notably split 9-3 vote that sent long-term Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2007. We cover the Dow's worst single-day drop since April 2025, a second consecutive day of steep losses for chip stocks in South Korea and the US including Qualcomm's earnings miss, and a rare bright spot in Ford's strong quarterly beat. After the close, Meta and Microsoft deliver starkly different results: Meta's revenue beat is overshadowed by a 14% profit decline and no 2027 spending guidance, while Microsoft's Azure growth and surging contracted revenue give investors a much clearer answer on AI monetization. We close with gold's continued climb and where bitcoin stood heading into the Fed decision. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
July 31 · 8 min
Daily Briefing — July 31, 2026 | Microsoft's Historic Rally, Apple's Stumble, and a New Suez Canal Scare
Markets close out July with one of the sharpest reversals of the summer, as Microsoft's stock surges 16% on the back of blowout Azure growth, adding a record-setting $450 billion in single-day market value, while Amazon's accelerating cloud revenue fuels a broader tech rebound. We cover Apple's more than 7% slide on weak Services and China revenue, cooler June PCE inflation and softer GDP data that helped ease rate-hike fears just two days after a hawkish Fed decision, and a striking secondary story: crypto-mining-turned-power companies IREN, TeraWulf, and MARA all surging as investors reassess their electricity assets as AI data-center capacity. We also cover new security concerns around Egypt's Suez Canal following a drone attack near Damietta, silver's extraordinary run near $58 an ounce, and Western Union's guidance cut. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
July 30 · 9 min
Daily Briefing — July 29, 2026 | A Hawkish Fed, a Resumed War, and Big Tech's Split Verdict
Markets suffer their worst Fed-decision day in over a year and a half after Iran launches a surprise missile attack ending the recent lull in fighting, and the Federal Reserve holds rates steady on a notably split 9-3 vote that sent long-term Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2007. We cover the Dow's worst single-day drop since April 2025, a second consecutive day of steep losses for chip stocks in South Korea and the US including Qualcomm's earnings miss, and a rare bright spot in Ford's strong quarterly beat. After the close, Meta and Microsoft deliver starkly different results: Meta's revenue beat is overshadowed by a 14% profit decline and no 2027 spending guidance, while Microsoft's Azure growth and surging contracted revenue give investors a much clearer answer on AI monetization. We close with gold's continued climb and where bitcoin stood heading into the Fed decision. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
July 29 · 8 min
Daily Briefing — July 29, 2026 | A Fed Decision, a Fresh Iran Escalation, and Microsoft and Meta on Deck
A brief lull in the Middle East ends abruptly as Iran launches a ballistic missile barrage on US forces overnight, intercepted by American and Jordanian defenses, followed by joint US-Saudi strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq — landing the same day Israeli PM Netanyahu and Ukraine's Zelenskyy meet President Trump in Washington. We cover why markets are reacting with relative composure to that news, oil's jump on renewed tensions, and the far bigger event on the calendar: today's Federal Reserve decision under Chair Kevin Warsh, where hike odds have roughly tripled over the past week amid a genuinely split policy picture. We also look at SK Hynix's spectacular earnings beat met with a nearly 9% stock decline, continuing a pattern across chipmakers this month, and preview tonight's earnings from Microsoft and Meta, both down sharply for the year heading into reports that could each swing tens of billions in market value, with Apple and Amazon following Thursday. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.
July 28 · 8 min
Daily Briefing — July 28, 2026 | A Brutal Day for Chipmakers, a Calm Day for Everyone Else
South Korea's Kospi plunges nearly 11%, its worst session in years, as SK Hynix and Samsung both drop double digits and the selloff spreads to Japan, the Nasdaq-100, and major US chip names like Micron, AMD, and Dell. We unpack the two forces behind it — a broad profit-taking rotation out of chipmakers and fresh reports of China ramping up its own chip-equipment production — alongside growing scrutiny of circular AI financing arrangements between chipmakers and their customers. Yet away from that narrow group, markets are calm: the Dow rallies on strong Coca-Cola and Sherwin-Williams earnings, oil falls to a one-week low on renewed optimism about a US-Iran deal, and the VIX actually declines. We preview tomorrow's Federal Reserve decision and the stakes it now carries alongside this week's hyperscaler earnings from Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Qualcomm, and close with brief notes on gold and bitcoin. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.

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