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RiskReversal Pod

RiskReversal Media

Welcome to the RiskReversal Pod, where Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by the most brilliant minds in markets and tech.

We break down the most important market moving headlines to help listeners make better informed investing decisions.

Our goal is to deconstruct Wall Street speak and offer contrarian insights and strategies that help investors navigate increasingly volatile markets.

—

YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia

Instagram: @riskreversalmedia

Twitter: @RiskReversal

LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

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#301
Yesterday · 1 hr
Imran Khan Isn't Worried About Nvidia's "Circular" Deals
This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform. Try Fidelity’s most powerful trading experience yet: https://www.fidelity.com/investing/trading-platforms Fidelity Investments and Risk Reversal are not affiliated. Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity products or services discussed are offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC. The trademarks and service marks appearing herein are the property of their respective owners. Dan Nathan sits down with Imran Khan, CIO and founder of Proem Asset Management, to break down one of the wildest weeks in tech earnings. They dig into Nvidia's latest quarter and why the stock keeps trading well below the market multiple despite the growth — and make the bull case for why that's about to change. From there: the increasingly circular web of financing between Nvidia, OpenAI, Microsoft, and CoreWeave, why OpenAI is building a chip to compete with its own biggest investor, and what Imran learned on a recent trip to South Korea about the memory market (Micron, SK Hynix, and the trade that's already up huge). They also unpack Salesforce's surprise post-earnings pop after Marc Benioff and Anthropic's Dario Amodei sat down with Jim Cramer, and close out with the question everyone's asking: are we in an AI bubble, and if so, who's left holding the bag? Articles Referenced Would There Be an AI Revolution If There Were No Nvidia? (WSJ) Nvidia’s $279 Billion Supply-Chain Gamble (WSJ) Nvidia Has Become a Banker to the AI Boom, Putting It on Dangerous Ground (WSJ) OpenAI Claims Its New Chips Can Outperform Nvidia Processors in Tests (Bloomberg) — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
#300
Wednesday · 1 hr 17 min
Deus Ex Machine, AI & Data with FirstMark's Matt Turck
Dan Nathan sits down with Matt Turck, Managing Director at First Mark Capital and creator of the annual MAD (Machine Learning, AI & Data) Landscape, for a wide-ranging look at where AI investing stands right now. They cover the power-law dynamics driving venture dollars to a handful of companies, why Nvidia is starting to look like "the bank" of the AI industry, Anthropic's surge past $65 billion in revenue and its first profitable quarter, and how OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and Meta are each positioning for what comes next. The conversation turns philosophical with a discussion of AGI, superintelligence, and the idea that Altman, Musk, and Amodei are all, in their own ways, trying to build God — before closing with a deep dive into China's AI progress, open source, and the robotics race. Matt also talks about his own podcast, The MAD Podcast, and his Data Driven NYC event series. Links Referenced The MAD Podcast (Apple Podcasts) The MAD Landscape (Matt's Website) Nvidia Has Become a Banker to the AI Boom, Putting It on Dangerous Ground (WSJ) Read "AI 2027" and "AI 2040" — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
#299
Monday · 1 hr 8 min
Danny Moses: How Scott Bessent Just Tied the Fed's Hands
Danny Nathan and Danny Moses discuss recent Treasury Secretary Bessent comments and plans to increase long-dated Treasury buybacks, arguing the amounts are largely signaling, yields quickly reverted, and the move effectively constrains Fed Chair Warsh ahead of Jackson Hole and a potential September hike. They connect rising yields, debt/deficits, inflation pressures, dollar/yen dynamics, and Bank of Japan policy to higher market volatility, tighter funding conditions, and renewed interest in gold, while noting capital may favor high-grade corporates over Treasuries. They review Walmart’s earnings beat but same-store-sales miss and valuation-driven selloff as a consumer and defensives litmus test. Looking ahead, they frame Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike earnings as key narrative tests for AI demand, software AI strategy, and cybersecurity, and they flag scrutiny around Carvana’s loan sales and potential related-party buyers. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
#298
August 21 · 1 hr 40 min
Ex-Twitter CEO gave Musk the Bird, 01A AI investments & IPO Landscape
WATCH 'The Dick & Paul Show' on YouTube: https://youtu.be/LtLBhBp5T40 This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform. Try Fidelity’s most powerful trading experience yet: https://Fidelity.com/TraderPlus Fidelity Investments and MRKT Call are not affiliated. Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC. Dan Nathan sits down with Paul Costolo, former CEO of Twitter and current VC. They start with Dick's early comedy days (Second City alongside Steve Carell, two SNL auditions that didn't pan out) and his stint writing for HBO's Silicon Valley, before diving into his path from founding FeedBurner to running Twitter through its IPO — including candid stories about the culture shift from private to public company life, and a surreal late-night run-in with Jack Dorsey in Paris in the middle of Elon Musk's takeover drama. From there they get into Dick's venture firm, 01 Advisors, and his thesis on investing in the AI "enablement layer" (the infrastructure sitting above the models) rather than chasing the flashiest apps. Dick shares his read on today's eye-popping valuations — including Stripe's $7 billion acquisition of OpenRouter and a leaked investor letter claiming "the singularity happened on New Year's Day" — and gives his predictions for the coming wave of AI IPOs, arguing Anthropic and SpaceX are well positioned while OpenAI could face a tougher road given its executive turnover and messaging challenges. They close by talking about prediction markets (and the striking gap between how well people think they're doing on platforms like Kalshi versus reality), before wrapping up with a plug for Dick's own podcast, the Dick and Paul Show. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
#297
August 19 · 45 min
The AI Price War Nobody Saw Coming with FirstMark's David Waltcher
Dan Nathan hosts FirstMark Capital partner David Waltcher at the firm’s HQ to discuss Waltcher ’s path from an Accel internship to investing in enterprise software, security, and AI. They compare the consumer-to-SaaS shift, the post-2021 “SaaSpocalypse,” and how public markets can overreact to AI narratives, using Salesforce as a system-of-record case study. Waltcher argues many incumbents will prove durable due to switching costs, ecosystems, and trust, while M&A is accelerating amid volatile publics, strong buyers, and fast-growing AI businesses, citing deals like Stripe–OpenRouter and interest in Workday. The conversation turns to Chinese and open models driving token cost deflation and model routing, and to rising security threats, including agent-related incidents, fueling demand. Waltcher highlights FirstMark investments Onyx (agent security), Nebulock (agentic threat hunting), and Tracebit (assume-breach deception), and says innovation risk is highest if recession or a market crash hits, not from AGI timing debates. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
#296
August 17 · 33 min
Peter Boockvar: Inflation Is The Core Disease
Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Checkout The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/about/ Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Peter Boockvar, CIO at OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners, to unpack recent inflation data and why yields remain resilient, with the curve steepening as the two-year dips while the 10-year holds around 4.65%. Boockvar argues the Fed must weigh PPI alongside CPI, noting persistent producer pressures and limited pass-through that squeezes margins and hiring, contributing to weak consumer confidence and “running to stand still” wages. They discuss why the S&P 500 continues to levitate, attributing much of earnings and market leadership to massive AI CapEx spending and its spillovers into financials. The conversation previews key retail earnings (Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target, TJ Maxx, Walmart) and highlights strong energy stocks amid high gasoline prices and inventory drawdown risks. They also debate U.S.-China AI competition, pressure on OpenAI/Anthropic business models, and Japan’s yen intervention, rising odds of a BOJ rate hike, and potential repatriation flows. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
#295
August 14 · 54 min
Vincent Daniel: AI Buildout Credit Risks Are a Feature, Not a Bug
Checkout the WAWD Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/ Dan Nathan welcomes Vincent Daniel, partner at Seawolf Capital and one of the investors who called the 2008 housing crash, for a deep dive into where markets stand heading into year-end. They break down new Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh's "immaculate economy" problem, why passive fund flows are quietly the most powerful force in the market, and the hedge-fund blowup that briefly rattled the S&P. From there, Dan and Vincent get into the real meat of the episode: the new wave of GPU-backed financing deals from Nvidia, Apollo, and Blackstone, why Vincent thinks the AI trade is less a Ponzi scheme and more a "debt-infield CapEx initiative," and where the credit risk is really hiding. They also debate capital availability, return on invested capital, which software names survive the AI shakeout, and whether this all ends up looking more like the dot-com bust or the GFC. Plus: an unprompted case for why Vincent should be the next GM of the Mets. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
August 13 · 37 min
Sonali Basak: Building “The Bridge” Investors Can Walk Across
Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTT Sonali joins the podcast on the one-year anniversary of moving from Bloomberg to iCapital, discussing her media series “The Bridge” and iCapital’s reach across wealth and asset managers. The conversation centers on AI economics, especially how declining token costs shift value along the “AI food chain,” with hyperscalers capturing a large share while software and enterprises benefit as costs fall, and with demand (Jevons paradox) potentially sustaining aggregate spend and CapEx. They address rising APAC innovation, why frontier labs pursue IPOs amid heavy cash burn and broad access to debt and equity, and the new NVIDIA-led $500B compute financing platform as Wall Street crowds into AI while investors struggle to diversify as infrastructure, power, and data centers converge. They discuss abundant 2026 liquidity that may tighten, oil’s impact on consumers and second-half caution, hedge fund crowding and the situational awareness leverage unwind, valuation dispersion (semis vs financials/utilities), and rate risks including Treasury basis-trade leverage, a 10-year yield range of 4–4.8%, Japan’s carry trade, and selective interest in Japan and parts of APAC for international exposure. -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses3 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
#294
August 12 · 37 min
Nvidia's Backstop Deal Just Made Every Bank a Bag Holder
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami dig into the biggest story in markets: Nvidia's roundtable with Wall Street's top financiers — Jensen Huang, David Solomon, Jon Gray, and Stephen Schwarzman — and the multi-hundred-billion-dollar backstop deal getting compared to a modern-day CDO. Dan lays out why he thinks this AI CapEx build could make the dot-com bust and the GFC look tame, walks through Nvidia's doubling credit default swaps, and answers a listener question on exactly what would signal the bubble has popped. Plus: the cautionary tale of The Trade Desk's collapse from $140 to $14, why valuations are only richer once before in history (the dot-com peak), and a preview of what to watch in Cisco's earnings after the close today. Show Notes A short history of valuing stocks (FT) Wall Street just endorsed Jensen Huang’s ‘big concept’ for AI. What now? (CNBC) — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
#293
August 10 · 48 min
AI Is Rewiring Retail Investing with Jim Swartwout & Jay Jacobs
Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Guy Adami speaks with Jim Swartwout, CEO of Prosperum Fintech Holdings about Swartwout's four-decade career across Schwab, Fidelity, E-Trade, TradeMonster, Scottrade, Robinhood, and more, and what it reveals about the evolution of retail investing. Swartwout argues retail is in a “golden age” driven by better data, tools, fractional trading, extended-hours markets, and lower costs, and says payment for order flow is not a meaningful issue at current levels. They discuss social-media-driven concentration and communities, Prosperum/Avantgarde’s education and partner communities, and AI features aiming to deliver “full service broker” support via bots. They cover options becoming more mainstream with education, market strength amid uncertainty, valuation risk, low VIX versus single-stock volatility, hedging demand, competition among brokers, access to private markets for accredited investors, interest in prediction markets, and potential election-related volatility. After the break, Dan Nathan hosts Jay Jacobs, BlackRock’s US head of equity ETFs, to discuss the growth of ETFs and new product tools for investors. Jacobs explains the launch of IQQQ, an iShares NASDAQ-100 ETF designed for long-term compounding with a low fee (12 bps, waived to 10 bps through July 31, 2027) and a lower share price to improve accessibility for smaller investors and options traders. They address Nasdaq-100 concentration and BlackRock’s related products QTop (top 30 names) and QNext (next 70) to help investors manage concentration. Jacobs contrasts iShares’ diversified semiconductor ETF SOXX, which caps top holdings around 7–8%, with more concentrated alternatives, and frames semiconductors as foundational to AI-driven growth. He outlines ETFs’ role in expanding market access, discusses tokenization’s potential for 24/7 global trading and operational efficiency while emphasizing market structure and liquidity needs, and notes BlackRock has not launched daily inverse or leveraged ETFs. The conversation closes with AI as a major economic force and BlackRock’s active AI ETF BAI, which seeks diversified exposure across the full AI value chain. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
#292
August 7 · 1 hr 7 min
Mike Wilson: The AI Trade Has a Breaking Point, We're Just Nowhere Near It
This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform.Try Fidelity’s most powerful trading experience yet: https://www.fidelity.com/trading/trading-platforms?immid=100734&imm_pid=428905629&imm_aid=a&dfid=&buf=99999999 Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are notendorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity BrokerageServices LLC, Member NYSE, SIPCApex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing. LEARN MORE: https://apexfintechsolutions.com/?utm_source=Risk+Reversal&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_campaign=701PJ00000fnXhaYAE Mike Wilson, Chief Equity Strategist and CIO at Morgan Stanley, joins Dan Nathan and Guy Adami for his 15th appearance on the pod. Mike breaks down why he thinks the S&P 500 is headed to 8000, why he's calling for 10-year yields to hit 5%, and why the market has quietly rotated from low-quality "enablers" like semis into higher-quality names like the hyperscalers. The conversation digs into the AI capex debate (Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Micron), what a new Fed chair means for rate policy, the risk of retesting the recent lows, and how China's rare earth dominance factors into the AI arms race. They also go long-horizon — space economy, humanoid robots, and drone warfare — before closing with a walk down memory lane through the dot-com bubble. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
August 6 · 34 min
Nicole Kagan: Empowering Kalshi Through Research
Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTT On this week's podcast, Danny Moses speaks with Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi, about her path from Bridgewater to Oxford and then to Kalshi to help build the contract-writing and research functions. Kagan explains how Kalshi sources market ideas internally, from partners, and from users, then evaluates whether a contract is objective, economically justified, and resolvable, often reusing pre-certified templates or submitting new rules for CFTC self-certification. She discusses how Kalshi reviews underperforming markets, prioritizes price discovery, and can keep low-volume markets live. They cover Kalshi’s prediction markets conference, institutional hedging examples, and Fed research finding Kalshi markets more accurate on inflation and Fed funds, including an FOMC pricing divergence versus CME futures. Moses highlights Kalshi’s research links and AI/compute work, then shares his weekly Kalshi picks focused on the Bank of Japan and USD/JPY. -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
#291
August 5 · 44 min
The AI "FOMO Feeding Frenzy" with Amish Jani of FirstMark Capital
Dan Nathan hosts Amish Jani, co-founder and partner at FirstMark Capital, to discuss his tech investing career and why AI represents the fastest, largest technological sea change he has seen. Jani argues historical comparisons break down as markets and capital needs have scaled, and that gen AI’s apparent “intelligence” has surprised even early researchers. They debate token optimization, enterprise adoption timelines, and whether model routing, open source, and alternative chips will reshape demand without collapsing frontier-model growth. The conversation explores the massive, debt-fueled AI infrastructure build, parallels to late-1990s fiber, NVIDIA’s incentives to diversify customers, and the risk of a new algorithmic or hardware paradigm making today’s spend obsolete. Jani expects value to shift from infrastructure to application software, with incumbents needing rapid product execution and targeted M&A, and he highlights opportunities in vertical AI, agent security, AI infrastructure tooling, consumer agents, and stablecoin/blockchain adoption. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
August 4 · 21 min
Bill Harris at The Dead Rabbit | Standing Table #8
In this episode we’re at The Dead Rabbit, grabbing a pint with serial entrepreneur and operator, Bill Harris, best known as an early CEO of PayPal. Bill is a veteran FinTech executive who has also served as CEO of Intuit. He later founded Personal Capital, a digital wealth management firm that grew to manage billions in assets before being acquired - and he's now founder and CEO of Evergreen.ai, continuing to innovate in financial technology and investment management. We discuss the early days of Fintech, the gamification of the market, and what it was like working with Elon Musk. — FOLLOW US Instagram: ⁠riskreversalmedia⁠ Twitter: ⁠https://x.com/riskreversal⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠riskreversalmedia⁠ #investing #stocks #stockmarket #ApexFintechSolutions Standing Table is made possible through our continued partnership with Apex Fintech Solutions. Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing. For more information, visit the Apex Fintech Solutions website: ⁠https://apexfintechsolutions.com/⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠apex-fintech⁠ SUBSCRIBE: RiskReversal Pod for more from Guy and Dan: ⁠https://apple.co/3RzvgpD⁠ RiskReversal Media channel for more episodes and content: ⁠@riskreversalmedia⁠ The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
#290
August 3 · 52 min
Cracks Everywhere: Japanese Yen, AI Stocks & US Bonds
Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Guy Adami is joined by Peter Boockvar, CIO of OnePoint BFG Financial, to break down the growing cracks in the Bank of Japan's decades-long rate repression experiment and what a yen reversal could mean for global bond markets. They dig into the historic move in Treasury yields following Kevin Warsh's press conference, rising credit stress in the AI trade (including Meta's off-balance-sheet financing and CoreWeave's blown-out credit default swaps), and why single-stock volatility may be signaling something bigger. They close out with a deep dive on gold — why central banks keep buying even as the metal cools off. Then, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami sit down with Jin Hennig, Managing Director and Global Head of Metals at CME Group, live from CME's New York office. They cover gold's pullback from its 2026 highs, the case for why central bank demand isn't going anywhere, the launch of CME's new 24/7 gold futures product, and what the September Fed meeting could mean for prices. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
#289
July 31 · 42 min
Warsh Out in Bonds + CME Group's Tim McCourt on Single Stock Futures
Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing LEARN MORE: https://apexfintechsolutions.com/?utm_source=Risk+Reversal&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_campaign=701PJ00000fnXhaYAE On today's show, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami break down a wild Thursday in the markets: Microsoft up 15% and Meta down 9% post-earnings, a huge bounce in semis and memory names, and software getting crushed. Guy makes the case that this price action looks more like a topping formation than a bottom. They dig into Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's post-meeting commentary and the bond market selloff it triggered, Bank of Japan intervention on the yen (and what it could mean for volatility), the dollar's potential breakout, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley's pullback from all-time highs, China's AI and chip progress and what it means for KWEB, and where gold goes next after holding the $4,000 level. Plus, Dan sits down with Tim McCourt, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Equity, FX and Alternative Products at CME Group, to talk about the newly launched Single Stock Futures — how they work, why CME launched them now during earnings season, and how traders can use them alongside stocks, ETFs, and options for risk management. Show Notes AI Lowers Wages But Doesn't Cut Jobs (Apollo) Why the bond market is doubting Fed chairman Warsh (Axios) FactSet Insight (FactSet) — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
#288
July 29 · 37 min
Stablecoins, Tokenization & the Future of Banking with Adam Nelson of FirstMark Capital
Dan Nathan sits down with Adam Nelson, fintech-focused VC partner, to break down why stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets are set to reshape the financial system. They cover the GENIUS Act’s impact on regulatory clarity, why Circle’s net income now rivals major banks, how Visa and Mastercard are responding to the threat, and the rise of companies like Rain and Velocity building the infrastructure layer. They also dig into why traditional banking moats are eroding, and close with a look at Hyperliquid, perpetual futures, and the growth of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
#287
July 27 · 28 min
Danny Moses: Gold's Make or Break Moment is Here
Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Guy Adami and Danny Moses discuss rising global yields and stress points in markets, focusing on Japan’s weakening yen, deteriorating bond market, and risks around Japan’s role as a major US Treasury holder and potential carry-trade unwind, with BOJ and Fed meetings ahead. They note August’s tendency toward volatility and how attention may shift from strong earnings to macro concerns as AI-driven CapEx pressures free cash flow at hyperscalers, raising valuation questions and fears of open-source competition. They preview key earnings including Apple (seen as a defensive AI conduit despite a rich valuation), Microsoft, Meta, and major energy firms, which may post strong results but avoid political blowback. They discuss mixed consumer signals from Capital One, AmEx, and retailers, reiterate a constructive longer-term view on gold tied to Fed policy, and share updates on Moses’s podcasts, Substack work, and a veterans charity event. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
#286
July 24 · 54 min
Cameron Dawson: Change (In the House of AI)
Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing. LEARN MORE: https://apexfintechsolutions.com/?utm_source=Risk+Reversal&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_campaign=701PJ00000fnXhaYAE Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, joins Dan Nathan to break down her "Metallica Market" outlook and why the hyperscalers are undergoing a fundamental transformation — from capital-light monopolies to capital-intensive AI infrastructure builders. They dig into Google's first negative free cash flow quarter since 2004, why 80% of its Q2 earnings came from a one-time $99 billion investment gain, and whether the Mag 7's current dominance echoes the Nifty Fifty and dot-com eras. Cameron also lays out the risk that 2027 S&P earnings estimates could be near their peak, why semiconductors (now 19% of the index) are driving the bulk of 2026's earnings growth, where she still sees strength in financials, and what a Fed Chair Warsh rate move next week could mean for stocks heading into a seasonally choppy back half of the year. Checkout Cameron's 'Metalica' note at NewEdge: https://www.newedgewealth.com/mid-year-outlook-the-metallica-market/ — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
#285
July 23 · 33 min
Rick Heitzmann: The Gray-Area Deals Funding the AI Buildout
Dan Nathan sits down with Rick Heitzmann, co-founder and partner at FirstMark Capital, to kick off a new Okay, Computer. series on AI investing. They dig into the circular financing behind the AI infrastructure boom — from Nvidia backstopping Apollo's private credit for xAI to Meta's off-balance-sheet data center deals with KKR and Blue Owl — plus the shift from "tokenmaxxing" to an efficiency era, the rise of Chinese open-source models, memory stock froth, and what's next for the IPO market after SpaceX. Show Notes Big Tech Is Hiding $1.65 Trillion in Debt. How Worried Should Investors Be? (Yahoo Finance) SpaceXAI Explores Major Data Center Expansion in Texas (The Information) — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia Twitter: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

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