RenMac

Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........

This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.

This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party.

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29 episodes
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Avg 44 min
English

Episodes 29

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May 29 · 40 min
RenMac Off-Script: Shoot ‘em in the Back
RenMac discusses the equity markets at all-time highs as signs of late-cycle stress accumulate beneath the surface and capital chases the parabola in tech. The team breaks down the historic tech-vs-healthcare disparity in their SERM excess-return model, the tops forming in payments, financials, and crypto, and the Bermuda Triangle of private credit, life insurance, and reinsurance that could become the next pressure point. They also explore Iran's fragile 60-day ceasefire, a global rate-hike cycle that may be doing the Fed's work and the wealth-effect grip on consumer spending.
May 22 · 50 min
RenMac Off-Script: Seeking Crypto Clarity
Zach Pandl, Head of Research at digital asset manager Grayscale Investments, joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the Clarity Act's path through Congress and how stablecoins are challenging banks' monopoly on digital payments. The team also digs into the AI boom's underappreciated reach across the U.S. economy, the breakout in real yields, narrowing market breadth, the Fed's increasingly narrow policy path, and geopolitical pressure points from the Strait of Hormuz to Cuba.
May 15 · 50 min
RenMac Off-Script: Around the World with Ozan
RenMac welcomes Deutsche Bank Vice Chair of Global Macro Ozan Tarman for a deep dive on rising yields, “warflation,” and whether the bond vigilantes are back. The team debates whether the move above 4.50% in the 10-year marks a regime shift, why AI is still carrying equities despite mounting macro stress, and how Iran, Taiwan, and Trump’s China trip are reshaping global markets. They also unpack Kevin Warsh’s difficult Fed setup, crowded positioning across rates and FX, private credit risks, and why housing and consumer may be flashing warning signs beneath the surface. We also welcome you to download our report: RenMac BDC Primer
May 8 · 34 min
RenMac Off-Script: Fine… For Now
RenMac breaks down a labor market that remains stable but uneven, with AI and data center investment continuing to drive hiring, manufacturing, and market leadership while housing, services, and consumer-sensitive sectors soften beneath the surface. The team discusses why slowing wage growth and rising gasoline prices leave the Fed stuck on hold, how semis and tech are entering historic “bubble” territory, and why private credit stress, Iran tensions, and China negotiations could become the next catalysts for volatility.
May 1 · 40 min
RenMac Off-Script: RenMac’s Breadth Problem
RenMac breaks down a powerful market rally masking weak breadth and narrow leadership concentrated in AI, semis, and energy. The team explores a soft underlying growth backdrop, slowing wage gains alongside rising prices, and why the Fed remains on hold despite mounting tension within the committee. They also discuss higher oil expectations, pressure on consumers, risks from concentrated momentum and “bubble” conditions in tech, and how markets are navigating a disconnect between strong earnings and fragile macro fundamentals.
April 24 · 41 min
RenMac Off-Script: Burden Is On The Bears
RenMac unpacks rising risks in the $2.1T private credit market, where opacity, refinancing pressure, and potential redemption “gates” could tighten financial conditions beneath the surface. The team discusses a speculative turn in equities driven by high beta and momentum, a Fed on hold despite slowing wage growth, and a labor market that remains stable but fragile. They also explore why inflation still matters more than growth for markets, how fiscal support may fade into a headwind, and what credit stress, positioning, and geopolitics signal for a late-cycle environment.
April 17 · 42 min
RenMac Off-Script: Can't Spell Allbirds w/o AI
RenMac unpacks a market at new highs despite slowing growth, softening real consumption, and rising real rates acting as a drag beneath the surface. The team debates AI-driven speculative behavior, a fragile consumer distorted by nominal spending and gas prices, housing that likely needs job losses to reset, and why markets are dismissing oil, policy, and Fed risks that haven’t hit earnings yet. We also welcome you to access “deGraaf: Fading the Fads” report: https://start.renmac.com/4-17-2026-fading-the-fads
April 10 · 1 hr 2 min
RenMac Off-Script: Clarida Gives RenMac Clarity
Former Fed Vice Chair Rich Clarida joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the evolving Fed reaction function amid a potential transition to a Warsh-led regime and why markets are struggling to price policy. The team breaks down how Middle East developments and energy prices complicate rate cuts, why underlying inflation may be softer than headline data suggests, and how AI-driven productivity could create conflicting pressures on growth, inflation, and rates. They also explore rising fragility in equities, the role of real rates as the key market driver, and why the current rally lacks the breadth and conviction needed for a durable move higher. Here is the link to Richard Clarida's Spotify : https://open.spotify.com/album/51lgCHoPn3Os1PiCirwidr
April 3 · 38 min
RenMac Off-Script: Good Friday & Dark Crosses
RenMac breaks down a noisy March payrolls report that’s sending the wrong signal to the Fed, why markets may be misreading a slowing nominal economy, and how rising real rates—not inflation fears—are driving the recent repricing in risk assets. The team explores the growing disconnect between resilient equities and weakening growth, the role of the Iran-driven oil shock in pushing inflation expectations higher, and why markets keep pushing out the timeline for resolution in the Strait of Hormuz. They also discuss why sentiment hasn’t fully cracked yet, what could trigger a sharper earnings reset in Q2, and why the real opportunity may come after positioning turns more bearish.

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