Pressure Points

Deepwater Asset Management

Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster discusses the Pressure Points of important technology topics.

deepwatermgmt.substack.com

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Wednesday · 9 min
Pressure Points: Apple's "Surprise and Shine" Event
I went into today's Apple event thinking the foldable iPhone was going to be a rounding error for growth. After seeing the iPhone Duo, I’ve changed my mind. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
August 27 · 10 min
Pressure Points: Nvidia July Quarter Earnings
Get ready for an AI tsunami. Nvidia’s CY27 revenue guide means the AI brain next year will be about 40% bigger than I thought 24 hours ago, which means the distribution will be greater than I previously expected. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
July 23 · 6 min
Pressure Points: Intel's June Quarter Earnings
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
July 22 · 2 min
Pressure Points: AI Trade Update: Google/Tesla Earnings
So what did we learn about the AI trade from Google and Tesla earnings? The infrastructure trade is intact based on higher capex outlooks and margins have been under pressure. Overall, I still believe we’re in the 3rd inning. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
July 22 · 6 min
Pressure Points: Google’s June Quarter Earnings
The massive Cloud beat got buried by higher capex guidance and expectations for lower Cloud margins going forward. As for Search, AI Mode monetization is beginning, which should be a long term growth driver. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
July 22 · 14 min
Pressure Points: Tesla’s June Quarter Earnings
While TSLA shares will likely be down tomorrow, the long term story continues to improve. Elon is all in on capex, FSD adoption is accelerating, Robotaxi is rolling out slowly to prioritize safety before scaling, and the odds of a SpaceX-Tesla merger just inched higher. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
July 21 · 11 min
Pressure Points: Tesla June Quarter Preview
Tesla June Quarter Preview: More moving parts this time around including capex, sustainability of delivery growth, ramp of cybercab production and our old friend, auto margins ex credits. Overall, I expect good news, just down know how investors will take greater capex for CY27. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
July 2 · 6 min
Pressure Points: Tesla's June Quarter Deliveries
Tesla shares down on the huge delivery beat for three reasons. The biggest was buy on the rumor. The second is a question of how much did high gas prices help the number and third, the ending of the DOGE headwind (Elon left in May 25).Bottom line: The EV winter that started in March of 2024 is ending. Even backing out those one time benefits, it still was a monster delivery number, likely up 20% plus vs. up 6% in March. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
June 24 · 6 min
Pressure Points: Micron 3Q'26 Earnings
The most underappreciated data point on MU’s earnings call was that the number of five-year SCAs increased from one last quarter to seven this quarter. That’s significant because it suggests customers expect this buildout to last for at least five years and want greater pricing visibility over that time frame. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
June 8 · 5 min
Pressure Points: WWDC Keynote 2026
Apple showed plans for a new Siri AI that consumers will love. They failed to answer the key question: Do they have the AI chops to deliver? My guess is that we’ll see Siri AI in mid-CY27, versus previous expectations for the fall of this year. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
May 20 · 8 min
Pressure Points: NVIDIA 1Q'27 Earnings
NVIDIA keeps crushing high expectations. It was a $27B business in CY22. This year it will be more than $400B. Investors are more worried that the growth will slow next year. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
April 30 · 12 min
Pressure Points: Apple 2Q'26 Earnings
The reason why shares of $AAPL are not up more is investors wonder if the new Siri can power an encore to iPhone super cycle that wraps up this quarter. I believe the answer is yes. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
April 30 · 6 min
Pressure Points: Hyperscalers Double Down on AI Capex
The bottom line on the capex outlook, we’re early in the AI buildout. Three of the four hyperscalers hiked their AI spending outlook. I expect in CY26 will come in up closer to 80% vs. up Street expectations of up 64% going into tonight. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
April 30 · 4 min
Pressure Points: Meta 1Q'26 Earnings
Meta can’t shake the capex bears. Growth of 33% was better than the whisper of 32%. Guided June to 28% vs. Street at 25%. Investors opted instead to focus on capex growth this year going to 93% growth compared to previous expectations of 73%. I see the concern overblown. Meta has shown they can meaningfully accelerate revenue from capex. March of 25 it was up 16%. This June it will grow 28% plus. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
April 30 · 5 min
Pressure Points: Google 1Q'26 Earnings
Investors shrugged off the higher capex guide for 2027 because Google Cloud is gaining meaningful marketshare, and Search is at an “expansionary moment” which means Search growth this year will be closer to 17% vs. the Street currently at 13%. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
April 30 · 4 min
Pressure Points: Microsoft 3Q'26 Earnings
Postive comments about Azure growing at 40% in June vs 39% in March was offset by them talking about the elephant in the room, the need for a new monetization model for software that is usage based. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
April 30 · 5 min
Pressure Points: Amazon 1Q'26 Earnings
Sounds like they’re keeping capex outlook unchanged. Up 48% y/y in CY26 compared to up 59% in CY25. The kicker is outside of AWS, they still have not had their AI moment. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
April 22 · 12 min
Pressure Points: Tesla 1Q'26 Earnings
Shares of TSLA sold off on the increased capex comments. It should have traded up because it supports the company’s long-term vision. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
April 20 · 10 min
Pressure Points: Tim Cook Stepping Down as Apple CEO
Tim crushed it as CEO of Apple. Ternus has an opportunity to supercharge Apple’s multiple by changing the narrative, which is the biggest opportunity in big tech. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
April 9 · 34 min
Pressure Points: SpaceX IPO & Sovereign AI
For the deep dive on our SpaceX Is Building the World’s First Sovereign AI thesis, check out Doug Clinton and I on Pressure Points. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

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