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Pressure Points

Deepwater Asset Management

Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster discusses the Pressure Points of important technology topics.

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Thursday · 3 min
Pressure Points: Amazon 3Q’26 Earnings
Amazon's message received: we’re an AI company. Don’t worry about bots threatening retail, AWS will be on fire for years. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
Wednesday · 6 min
Pressure Points: Google 3Q’26 Earnings
Google Search had a tough September quarter and they’re not out of the woods yet. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
October 22 · 6 min
Pressure Points: Tesla 3Q’26 Earnings
FSD is at an inflection point and traditional auto doesn’t have an answer. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
October 20 · 8 min
Pressure Points: SpaceX 3Q’26 Earnings
The stars are lining up for Elon to fully realize his vision of SpaceX being a vertical AI company, with the odds of a Tesla merger increasing. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
October 13 · 8 min
Pressure Points: Apple's "Welcome Home" Product Announcements
The “Welcome Home” announcements today should add just under 1% to FY27 revenue. More important is the accelerating pace of product announcements. The “Home” segment represents new revenue for Apple, but the biggest incremental consumer opportunity over the next five years is personalized bots, a category in which Apple has yet to make any announcements, as it’s just getting the Siri chatbot out the door. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
October 2 · 5 min
Pressure Points: Tesla Deliveries - September 2026
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
September 24 · 6 min
Pressure Points: Meta Connect 2026
I expect shares of Meta to be flat to down on the Meta Connect keynote, given we didn’t get much on Muse adoption. What we got that was important is Zuck’s vision that all that matters to the company long term is Muse. Bad news for Google. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
September 9 · 9 min
Pressure Points: Apple's "Surprise and Shine" Event
I went into today's Apple event thinking the foldable iPhone was going to be a rounding error for growth. After seeing the iPhone Duo, I’ve changed my mind. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
August 27 · 10 min
Pressure Points: Nvidia July Quarter Earnings
Get ready for an AI tsunami. Nvidia’s CY27 revenue guide means the AI brain next year will be about 40% bigger than I thought 24 hours ago, which means the distribution will be greater than I previously expected. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
July 23 · 6 min
Pressure Points: Intel's June Quarter Earnings
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
July 22 · 2 min
Pressure Points: AI Trade Update: Google/Tesla Earnings
So what did we learn about the AI trade from Google and Tesla earnings? The infrastructure trade is intact based on higher capex outlooks and margins have been under pressure. Overall, I still believe we’re in the 3rd inning. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
July 22 · 6 min
Pressure Points: Google’s June Quarter Earnings
The massive Cloud beat got buried by higher capex guidance and expectations for lower Cloud margins going forward. As for Search, AI Mode monetization is beginning, which should be a long term growth driver. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
July 22 · 14 min
Pressure Points: Tesla’s June Quarter Earnings
While TSLA shares will likely be down tomorrow, the long term story continues to improve. Elon is all in on capex, FSD adoption is accelerating, Robotaxi is rolling out slowly to prioritize safety before scaling, and the odds of a SpaceX-Tesla merger just inched higher. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
July 21 · 11 min
Pressure Points: Tesla June Quarter Preview
Tesla June Quarter Preview: More moving parts this time around including capex, sustainability of delivery growth, ramp of cybercab production and our old friend, auto margins ex credits. Overall, I expect good news, just down know how investors will take greater capex for CY27. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
July 2 · 6 min
Pressure Points: Tesla's June Quarter Deliveries
Tesla shares down on the huge delivery beat for three reasons. The biggest was buy on the rumor. The second is a question of how much did high gas prices help the number and third, the ending of the DOGE headwind (Elon left in May 25).Bottom line: The EV winter that started in March of 2024 is ending. Even backing out those one time benefits, it still was a monster delivery number, likely up 20% plus vs. up 6% in March. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
June 24 · 6 min
Pressure Points: Micron 3Q'26 Earnings
The most underappreciated data point on MU’s earnings call was that the number of five-year SCAs increased from one last quarter to seven this quarter. That’s significant because it suggests customers expect this buildout to last for at least five years and want greater pricing visibility over that time frame. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
June 8 · 5 min
Pressure Points: WWDC Keynote 2026
Apple showed plans for a new Siri AI that consumers will love. They failed to answer the key question: Do they have the AI chops to deliver? My guess is that we’ll see Siri AI in mid-CY27, versus previous expectations for the fall of this year. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
May 20 · 8 min
Pressure Points: NVIDIA 1Q'27 Earnings
NVIDIA keeps crushing high expectations. It was a $27B business in CY22. This year it will be more than $400B. Investors are more worried that the growth will slow next year. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
April 30 · 12 min
Pressure Points: Apple 2Q'26 Earnings
The reason why shares of $AAPL are not up more is investors wonder if the new Siri can power an encore to iPhone super cycle that wraps up this quarter. I believe the answer is yes. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com
April 30 · 6 min
Pressure Points: Hyperscalers Double Down on AI Capex
The bottom line on the capex outlook, we’re early in the AI buildout. Three of the four hyperscalers hiked their AI spending outlook. I expect in CY26 will come in up closer to 80% vs. up Street expectations of up 64% going into tonight. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

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