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Odd Lots

Bloomberg

#16 in Business this week

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday, Thursday, and Friday

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  • Jan 26, 2024 · 30 min

    Lots More on China's Moves to Create a Dollar Alternative

    For years, people have been talking about the end of US dollar dominance or how some other currency could usurp its role around the world. But when it comes to global finance and trade, the dollar is as dominant as ever. Given the size of China's economy, the renminbi is considered one potential challenger. And in fact, China is making real moves on this front. On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Zongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of a recent article on China's de-dollarization efforts. As she sees it, the rise of a new energy and commodity system — one that is breaking away from oil — creates the opportunity for markets that are denominated in something other than dollars. Meanwhile, China, having seen Russia get cut off from the dollar system, has an increased incentive to protect itself from a similar fate. We discuss the prospects of a major change and how China could benefit, as well as the risks. We also discuss the current state of Chinese macro. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Jan 25, 2024 · 40 min

    The Anonymous Meme Account Chronicling Credit Market Craziness

    The past few years have been pretty wild for anyone working in credit, the business of selling and trading corporate debt. First you had the pandemic, which changed working patterns across Wall Street. Then you had a surge in deal activity that had everyone working overtime to meet demand. Meanwhile, private credit's been booming and is now competing with banks' cash cow businesses of selling bonds and leveraged loans. And finally, everyone is wondering how long the credit space can withstand higher interest rates, and how frothy the underlying deals actually all. High Yield Harry, an anonymous social media account, has been chronicling it all -- making memes out of junk bond offerings, and cracking jokes about conversations with investment committees. In this episode, he talks about his experience working in both private and public credit, what it's like to run an anonymous FinTwit account, and the outlook for bonuses this year. High Yield Harry's voice is concealed in this episode to preserve anonymity. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Jan 22, 2024 · 51 min

    Brevan Howard's Top Economist Sees Three Huge Macro Turning Points Under Way

    Right now, there's a lot of hope and optimism that the US economy is on a path towards a soft landing. Nonetheless, there are aspects of the current landscape that are unsettling. Inflation has come down, but there's significant debate as to why and how sustainable that move is. Geopolitics is another source of concern, given multiple ongoing conflicts. According to Jason Cummins, the chief economist and head of research at macro hedge fund Brevan Howard, we're currently seeing the demise of three different eras: the end of secular stagnation, the end of China's "get rich it all costs" era, and the end of "the end of history," as liberal democracy clashes with other competing frameworks. On this episode of the podcast, we talk about how these ideas are applied practically, in terms of trades, and also why he believes that recession is coming to the US economy in 2024. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Jan 19, 2024 · 38 min

    The Moment That Boeing's Culture Started To Rot

    On Jan. 5, the plug door of an Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 blew out mid-flight, forcing the plane into an emergency landings with a large hole in fuselage. Miraculously, nobody was hurt or killed, but it could have been a disaster. And it was the latest in the persistent string of mechanical and engineering setbacks that have plagued Boeing over the last six years. Of course, the company went into crisis mode in late 2018 and early 2019 when two different 737 Max planes crashed, killing 346 people combined. So what's wrong with Boeing? It's a crucial question, since the company is arguably America's pre-eminent manufacturer and one of the only two dominant global players in commercial jets. On this episode we speak with Bloomberg investigative reporter Peter Robison, the author of Flying Blind: The 737 MAX Tragedy and the Fall of Boeing. We discuss the company's problems, its history and culture, and how it lost its focus on safety and engineering in favor of a focus on pleasing shareholders. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Jan 18, 2024 · 40 min

    US Oil Is Booming and It's Upending Global Markets

    In the early 2010s, US shale players were producing oil like crazy, with no concerns about profitability. Then the legs were kicked out from the industry, causing a massive bust and massive oversupply. In 2021 and 2022, it looked like a very different story. Oil prices were surging and it seemed as though US players had found religion, learning how to maintain production discipline and improve profitability. But now we're in a new era that nobody saw coming: US oil production is booming. In in fact, it's at a record high. What's more, industry participants are actually making money at the same time. So how did they do it? And how did the prognosticators get things wrong? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Bloomberg Opinion columnist and commodity specialist Javier Blas. We discuss the state of US supply and what it means for OPEC. We also talk about the rising tension in the Red Sea, as well as his reporting on the rise of electronic electricity trading in the European market. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Jan 15, 2024 · 49 min

    The Massive Economic Impact If China Invades Taiwan

    A possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan has become a top-of-mind concern in defense and corporate circles in recent years. But what would such an attack actually look like? And what would be the economic impact to world if it actually happened? On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Jennifer Welch, chief geo-economics analyst at Bloomberg Economics and Gerard DiPippo, senior geo-economics analyst at Bloomberg Economics. Jennifer and Gerard, along with a larger team of Bloomberg economists and journalists, recently undertook a massive exercise to game out the potential impact to the global economy of a war in the Taiwan Strait — which they estimate to be around $10 trillion. That would be significantly larger than the biggest disruptions in recent memory, including the Covid pandemic and the global financial crisis, leaving virtually no part of the world unaffected. We discuss how they go about assessing the odds of each scenario and how they evaluate the possible impacts. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Jan 12, 2024 · 19 min

    Lots More on What's Hot at JPM's Health Conference

    For anyone interested in investing in the health-care space, JPMorgan's annual Health Care Conference has become one of the most important events of the year. We were not able to get to San Francisco this year, but one of our favorite Odd Lots guests, James van Geelen of CitriniResearch.com, was in attendance. He called into this week's episode of Lots More to tell us what the leading players in health care and medical technology are buzzing about right now — and he confirms that AI and GLP-1 weight loss drugs are at the top of everyone's mind." See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Jan 11, 2024 · 44 min

    Harley Bassman on Why the Big Moves in the Bond Market Are Done

    Harley Bassman, a.k.a. the Convexity Maven, is a legend among bond investors. He worked at Merrill Lynch, where he invented the MOVE Index that measures bond market volatility, and then at Pimco. Now, after a dramatic year for US Treasuries that saw investors hit with massive amounts of volatility only for the 10-year yield to basically wind up where it was at the start of 2023, he sees things starting to get a bit more normal. With the Federal Reserve getting closer to its 2% inflation target, the yield curve is going to steepen after years of intense inversion, he says. Now a managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, Bassman also talks about his favorite trades for 2024, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's legacy, and how he chooses his famously esoteric chart colors. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Jan 9, 2024 · 34 min

    Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices

    The mood about the US economy feels very different right now than it did a year ago. At the start of 2023, almost everyone seemed to be predicting recession. Right now, there is a high degree of optimism about the prospects of a soft landing. On this special episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Lael Brainard, the director of the White House's National Economic Council. We talk about the state of the recovery, why public frustration towards the economy remains high, and what further can be done by the Biden administration to address the high cost of living. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Jan 8, 2024 · 42 min

    This Is the Impact of Billions Flowing Into Private Credit

    Private credit is now so big that it's rivaling more traditional forms of lending and fueling a debate about whether this relatively new asset class poses risks to the economy. And yet, it feels like a new private credit fund is being launched daily. And even banks (the very things private credit is displacing) are getting in on the act and creating their own private credit offerings for investors. In this episode, we speak with Ben Emons, senior portfolio manager at Newedge Wealth, about the macro impact of this new form of lending. He talks about where private credit's alpha actually comes from, how it stacks up against bank lending, and what to watch out for in terms of the risks it might pose to the broader system. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Jan 4, 2024 · 55 min

    Attacks in the Red Sea Are Reconfiguring Global Trade Again

    A string of recent attacks by Yemen-based Houthi rebels on commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea to the Suez Canal have forced global shippers to once again shift how they transport goods. It's just the latest in a multi-year string of disruptions to global supply chains. It also comes just as pandemic-era supply chain stress seemed to be in the rearview mirror. So what is the geopolitical and economic impact of this latest disruption? In this episode, we speak with Craig Fuller, founder and CEO of FreightWaves, about the impact of the attacks. We also talk about the broader logistics landscape, including the rise and fall of digital freight brokerages, and the 2023 "bloodbath" for trucking firms. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Jan 1, 2024 · 38 min

    The Top 10 Things We Learned on Odd Lots in 2023

    It's no secret that one of the fun things about Odd Lots is that it covers a lot of different topics, from the plumbing of the financial system to crimes in commodities to the ongoing impact of 100-year-old laws like the Jones Act. In this episode, Joe and Tracy collect their top 10 surprising and interesting insights gleaned from Odd Lots episodes this year. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Dec 28, 2023 · 44 min

    Brad Jacobs Plans to Make Billions in the Building Supply Industry

    Brad Jacobs has founded multiple multi-billion dollar companies in his career. He turned United Waste into part of a major trash collection conglomerate. United Rentals has been a massive winner in equipment rental for the construction industry. And XPO Logistics (which has spun out GXO and RXO) is a freight behemoth. Now, he's planning on doing it again. His new company, QXO, wants to be a billion-dollar player in the area of building products distribution. On this episode, we speak to Jacobs — who is the author of the new book, How To Make A Few Billion Dollars — about why he chose to go into this industry, his philosophy of building businesses, and how he plans to win in this space. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Dec 25, 2023 · 37 min

    The Odd Lots AMA Episode: Joe and Tracy Answer Your Questions

    On this episode, our listeners called in with their questions. They ranged from the personal, like "What happened with Tracy's coal?" to the editorial, such as "What are the big stories we want to be covering more?" Hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway are the ones who get interviewed in this special holiday episode. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Dec 21, 2023 · 43 min

    Why So Many People Got This Year's Economy Wrong

    This time last year, almost everyone was predicting a recession would engulf the US economy in 2023. One of those forecasters was was Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. In October of last year, her model of the US economy showed a 100% chance of a recession happening in 2023. But, here we are more than 12 months later and US economic data keeps coming in relatively strong. Unemployment remains near multi-decade lows and inflation is pretty close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Yet there are still some confusing signals about the economy's overall direction, including surveys showing that many people are extremely pessimistic in their economic outlook. In this episode, we speak with Anna about how she's thinking about the conflicting signals in the US economy, why recession didn't materialize in 2023 in the way many people thought it would, and what she's looking out for next year. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Dec 19, 2023 · 51 sec

    Introducing: Bloomberg News Now

    Bloomberg News Now is a comprehensive audio report on today's top stories. Listen for the latest news, whenever you want it, covering global business stories around the world. on Apple: trib.al/Mx9TCh1 on Spotify: trib.al/T4BG8s4 Anywhere: trib.al/O4EX6BA See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Dec 18, 2023 · 39 min

    A County in Maryland Came up With a New Way of Building Affordable Homes

    When people think of publicly funded housing, they tend not to think about modern-looking apartments with all kinds of amenities. But a county in Maryland is trying to completely reframe how we think about public housing. The Montgomery County Housing Authority has been a pioneer in thinking about what the government can do in terms of accelerating housing production, even when the private sector is pulling back due to higher rates. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Zachary Marks, Senior Vice President of Real Estate at the Housing Opportunities of Commission of Montgomery County along with Paul Williams, the founder and executive director of the Center for Public Enterprise, about what the county is doing, and how the model can be applied elsewhere to create more affordable, abundant housing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Dec 15, 2023 · 22 min

    Lots More on Shohei Ohtani's $700 Million Contract

    This week was a huge one for the soft landing camp. The inflation data came in cool and the Federal Reserve indicated its confidence that it can begin monetary tightening fairly soon. Meanwhile, baseball superstar Shohei Ohtani signed a staggering $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers that comes with a highly unusual deal structure. To break it down, we talked with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Conor Sen about what it all means. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Dec 14, 2023 · 48 min

    How Salad Chain Sweetgreen Figures Out Its Next Product to Sell

    Sweetgreen, the popular fast food salad restaurant, recently announced that it was eliminating all use of seed oils, in favor of higher quality oils such as avocado and olive oil. This is more costly, but the company sees it as worthwhile, given its reputation for high-quality ingredients, and growing public interest in oils. So how does a company like Sweetgreen decide what to sell? And how does it compete against the numerous other fast casual chains competing for lunchtime dollars. On this episode we speak with co-founder Nicolas Jammet about the company's strategy, how it deals with labor and commodity costs, and the future of the restaurant business. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Dec 11, 2023 · 47 min

    Drybar Founder Alli Webb on the High Cost of Fast Growth

    One of the defining brands of the 2010s was Drybar. The popular chain of blow dry salons helped define the so-called experience economy, leading to numerous competitors and copycats. But of course, to go from a single location to a national chain is difficult in all kinds of ways, both personally and operationally. On this episode, we speak with Drybar founder Alli Webb on the experience, which she talks about in her new book titled 'The Messy Truth: How I Sold My Business for Millions but Almost Lost Myself'. We also discuss the truth about raising money, her new chain of massage studios, how to select the perfect retail location, and how operating a business is different in 2023 than it was 10 years ago. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Showing 581–600 of 1,302 episodes