Moving Markets

Julius Baer

Moving Markets is the home of podcasts at Julius Baer. Here, our expert teams share concise daily market updates in ‘Moving Markets Daily’ which is complemented by ‘Moving Markets: The View Beyond’, a weekly show dedicated to discussing the context, thematic angles, and investment implications behind key topics shaping the news cycle and conversations among our relationship managers and clients.

The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

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1,058 episodes
Updated Yesterday

Episodes1058

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Dec 22, 2023 · 15 min
Will there be a Santa Claus rally?
US equities recovered from Wednesday’s sell-off and are now on track for a Santa Claus rally, which refers to the last five trading days of the year. However, the positive mood could be spoilt by two things: the PCE deflator figures due later today, which will provide a fresh indication of where US inflation is heading, and concerns in China as the country cracks down on the mobile gaming industry. In commodities, Angola’s decision to leave OPEC has raised some questions about how effective the organisation really is, but oil is currently well supported by tensions in the Red Sea. Cyril Demaria-Bengochea, Head of Private Markets Strategy, joins the show today to discuss the impact of higher interest rates on private markets. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:33 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 07:10 What higher interest rates mean for private markets by Cyril Demaria-Bengochea (Head of Private Markets Strategy) 13:44 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Dec 21, 2023 · 17 min
Stock market rally stalls as traders take profits ahead of long weekend
Yields in Europe have come under significant pressure as inflation has collapsed across the board, with the German 10-year benchmark yield now back below 2%. Meanwhile, the relentless rally in equity markets over the past few weeks took a pause yesterday, with traders apparently taking some chips off the table ahead of the long weekend. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about our commodities outlook for 2024 and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, shares the latest thoughts from the CIO Office. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:53 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 06:49 Commodities Market Outlook 2024 by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research) 12:44 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis) 15:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Dec 20, 2023 · 12 min
Equity rally continues on growing hopes of a soft landing
US equities continued to rally yesterday on encouraging economic data prints and Fed officials’ comments, furthering strengthening the narrative for a soft-landing in the US economy. In the UK, core and headline inflation data came in lower than estimated, with the pound sterling falling on the news. And as fixed income markets reflect a growing consensus that central banks have reached the peak of their rate-hiking cycles, Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategy, shares his latest insights into bond markets. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:35 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 06:16 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy) 11:19 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Dec 19, 2023 · 17 min
Fed pushback defied by Wall Street
Central bank officials continue to push back on aggressive rate cut expectations. While US equity markets are still powering ahead, Europe is looking for direction. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, talks about the latest central bank decisions and what it means for markets in 2024. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, has a special Christmas gift for us. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing) 07:19 Latest central bank meetings and interest rate outlook by David Kohl (Chief Economist) 13:46 Review of FX markets in 2023 by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 16:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Dec 18, 2023 · 9 min
A positive end to one week, a jittery start to the next
European and US equities closed last week higher and a few new record highs were reached following a series of central bank decisions to leave rates unchanged. A few Fed speakers then stepped in to curb traders’ enthusiasm over likely rate cuts, causing Asian equites (Korea aside) to stall this morning. US futures however point to a steady day ahead. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he believes that the rally still has legs, and he adds the technical reasons to invest in Indian equities to our fundamental call. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 06:13 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research) 08:35 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Dec 15, 2023 · 13 min
European central banks have yet to join the party – still, markets are up
After starting the trading day on a strong footing, European markets petered out during the day but still ended in positive territory. European central banks refrain from declaring victory over inflation and stick to their tight monetary policy. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, shares his thoughts on what this means for currencies and metals. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 07:00 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 12:26 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Dec 14, 2023 · 11 min
Equities rally on bullish Fed pivot
After the US Federal Reserve yesterday left interest rates unchanged as expected and signalled interest-rate cuts next year, global stocks gained for a sixth straight session and US Treasury yields plummeted. Today it’s the turn of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank to announce their latest rate decisions, with expectations for a hold in rates across the board. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, shares with us his key takeaways from COP 28 and his current views on the energy transition. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 05:46 COP 28 by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research) 10:36 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Dec 13, 2023 · 12 min
Stocks continue to rally ahead of today's Fed rate decision
Although US consumer price inflation figures came in slightly higher than expected, equities continued their Santa Claus rally, with the S&P500 Index now trading at highs not seen since January 2022. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, talks about this week's key central bank meetings and his expectations for their interest rate decisions. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:21 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 06:26 Bond market update/Central bank preview by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy) 11:30 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Dec 12, 2023 · 11 min
Investors wait patiently for US inflation numbers
Trading has started this week on a subdued note as investors await the US Consumer Price Index figures later today, which will test the market’s optimism for interest rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, in Asia, China’s Central Economic Work Conference is expected to conclude today and could shed light on how the country plans to support economic growth. In commodities, copper is making headlines as the metal’s supply could tighten due to political and social opposition, and the difficulty of developing new operations. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research is also on the show today to discuss the key developments in digital assets in 2023. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 06:25 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) 10:11 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Dec 11, 2023 · 11 min
The DAX hits an all-time high and it’s a big week for central banks
The world's major central banks meet this week. Apart from Brazil, no rate changes are expected. The focus will therefore be on their forward-looking communication. Germany's DAX index hit a new all-time high on Friday, while better-than-expected US non-farm payroll figures boosted the S&P 500 index. In Asia, China's consumer prices fell by the most in three years in November and the JPY remains in focus after a dramatic spike on Friday. Bitcoin is giving back some of its gains this Monday morning after this year's spike. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, notes that it is a good sign for equities that this year's laggards (European and small caps) are catching up quickly. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 07:28 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research) 10:02 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Dec 8, 2023 · 12 min
The Japanese yen, India’s equities and AI captivate financial markets
On a day when we await non-farm payrolls data, ahead of a central bank heavy week, one might have expected muted markets. Instead, the three main US indices broke their three-day losing streak as artificial intelligence (AI) announcements drove equities higher. And India’s election results, combined with their central bank’s decision to keep rates unchanged, boosted their stock markets to record highs. The yen surged more than 1% and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks us through all of the associated market reactions, and highlights his calls ahead of those central bank meetings next week. 00:00 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 06:07 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 11:46 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Dec 7, 2023 · 10 min
US awaits more labour market data
A string of labour-focused data releases in the US has the potential to move markets at the end of this week. Meanwhile in Europe, traders are increasing their bets on monetary policy easing from the European Central Bank and are now pricing in six quarter-point rate cuts in 2024. In Asia, Chinese imports and the auction of a 30-year Japanese government bond both disappointed. In commodities, oil stabilised after several days of declines and US gasoline prices hit their lowest level since 3 January 2023. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins today’s show to explain what’s going on in the gold market. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 05:40 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research) 09:25 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Dec 6, 2023 · 11 min
ECB speech sparks stock rally in Germany - and bond yields continue to fall
Germany's Dax index, arguably the most cyclical market in Europe, closed at a record high after Isabel Schnabel, a prominent official at the European Central Bank, said the slowdown in inflation was ‘remarkable’. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, says that the bond rally may have gone a little too far for now, but there is still plenty of value to be found. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:21 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 06:14 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy) 10:21 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Dec 5, 2023 · 10 min
US markets falter on disappointing factory orders data
US stock markets slipped yesterday after US factory orders fell by more than expected in October adding to signs that the US economy looks set to slow in the fourth quarter. The latest core inflation data out of Tokyo slowed from the previous month in an encouraging sign that cost pressure in Japan is easing. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, talks about the latest Bitcoin rally and whether it looks sustainable. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 05:28 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) 09:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Dec 4, 2023 · 9 min
US Treasury yields drop like a stone
US equities rallied and bond yields fell sharply on Friday after comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raised market bets that interest rates will be cut next year sooner than markets had previously discounted. Gold rose to an all-time high in Asian trading today, at one point reaching USD 2,135 an ounce. Bitcoin rose above USD 41,500 on the prospect of lower interest rates and the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Roche buys Carmot Therapeutics to enter the obesity treatment market. And at COP 28, more than 20 countries pledged to triple nuclear power by 2050. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, notes that the decline in bond yields could be much faster than most expect. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 05:55 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research 08:47 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Dec 1, 2023 · 13 min
Best monthly return for the 60/40 portfolio since 1991
Equities and bonds rallied in November on the back of softer inflation data and inflation expectations. This was confirmed by yesterday's data releases from the US and the eurozone, with the latter reporting year-on-year inflation of just 2.4% in November, close to the ECB's 2.0% target. Oil moved lower on an uninspiring OPEC+ decision to cut output and a report showing record US production in September 2023. Chinese equities are off their lows on rumours that state-owned companies have been buying local ETFs. The Israel-Hamas ceasefire appears to have ended but markets have remained calm. All eyes are on today's fireside chat with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, notes that you can have all the protection you want in a portfolio but it does not do you any good if you never take any profits. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 06:28 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 12:22 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Nov 30, 2023 · 15 min
Equities soar as bond yields plunge
Global stocks are on course for their best month in three years, as bond yields continue to tumble on speculation that the US Federal Reserve is done tightening and will start cutting rates next year. This has led to the US dollar falling further against its peers, with the greenback set for its worst month in a year. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, talks to us about the outlook for the oil market and why he thinks the European energy crisis is behind us. And we hear from Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, on the outlook for the global economy and whether the year-end rally still has legs. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 05:31 Update on energy markets by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research) 10:48 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis) 13:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Nov 29, 2023 · 14 min
Fed speak triggers a US Treasury rally – stocks have not reacted (yet)
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller triggered the US Treasury market to rally by saying that he believes that monetary policy is tight enough and that the US economy is likely to pull off a soft landing. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his views and explains where he sees the best opportunities to build fixed income exposure. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 06:59 US bonds update by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research) 13:32 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Nov 28, 2023 · 10 min
Investor sentiment buoyed on bets of an end to Fed hiking cycle
While economic data prints out of the US showed signs of weakness yesterday, bets that the US Federal Reserve is almost done with its rate-hiking cycle, along with solid Cyber Monday sales, supported the broader risk mood in US markets. The US dollar fell further against its peers and is on course for its worst month in a year. And in the latest news from the world of crypto assets, Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on the developments at Binance. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 06:05 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) 09:07 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Nov 27, 2023 · 10 min
Yields rise ahead of fresh inflation data, but equities remain ‘all green’
Yields rose across the board towards the end of last week, albeit in thin trading. Meanwhile, equities may be due for a pause before the rally continues into year-end - potentially an opportunity to add exposure. Markus Wachter of Technical Analysis explains why he prefers equities to gold at the moment. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 06:14 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis) 08:59 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.