Moving Markets

Julius Baer

Moving Markets is the home of podcasts at Julius Baer. Here, our expert teams share concise daily market updates in ‘Moving Markets Daily’ which is complemented by ‘Moving Markets: The View Beyond’, a weekly show dedicated to discussing the context, thematic angles, and investment implications behind key topics shaping the news cycle and conversations among our relationship managers and clients.

The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

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1,059 episodes
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Apr 19, 2024 · 14 min
Stocks fall on Middle East worries
European and US equity index futures declined overnight as global markets were rocked by fresh conflict in the Middle East that sent stocks lower while oil and safe-haven assets are trading higher. The Fed is hammering home its patient rhetoric. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the show today to tell us more about the adage 'sell in May and go away' and what to expect from equity market seasonality in the coming months. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing) 06:37 Special: Sell in May and go away? by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research) 12:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Apr 18, 2024 · 16 min
New sanctions on Russian industrial metals
US equities were lower again in yesterday’s afternoon session, with a drop in orders at European semiconductor company ASML Holdings weighing on technology stocks. US and Asian authorities are pushing back against USD strength and oil is lower on ample US supply. Stocks are in the green this Thursday morning, supported by some upbeat earnings results and comments from Christine Lagarde that Europe's economy is nearing the end of its malaise. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about the impact of new sanctions imposed by the UK and US on Russian industrial metals. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, comments on the Swiss franc's recent recovery and much more. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:33 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 07:31 Impact of sanctions on Russian metals by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research) 10:50 FX and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 14:56 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Apr 17, 2024 · 10 min
Sticky inflation prompts Fed to delay rate cuts
Yesterday the US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell signalled that policymakers will wait longer than previously anticipated to begin cutting interest rates. Nevertheless, despite the recent selloff, global equities are starting to show signs of stability. Investors are now betting on just one to two US rate cuts this year starting in July or September. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, provides us with an update on the Q1 earnings season. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:20 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 06:28 Q1 Earnings Season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy) 09:44 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Apr 16, 2024 · 15 min
Markets lower on geopolitical fears
European markets managed to close Monday’s session higher but the same could not be said for the US, where tech stocks fared the worst. Strong US retail sales data pushed back expectations of rate cuts there until September. Concerns about an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East did little to calm jittery Asian markets and they fell further on mixed economic data from China. Norbert Rücker explains why it’s important not to underestimate the resilience of the energy market regardless of geopolitical storms, and Manuel Villegas reveals the reasons for the recent price reversal in digital assets. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)w 00:30 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 06:04 Geopolitical update: Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research) 09:38 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) 13:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Apr 12, 2024 · 13 min
Yields remain high, equities rebound, and gold prints a new high
Despite global government bond yields remaining high following this week’s US inflation reports, equities staged a recovery rally into the close. And overnight, gold hit another record high, edging closer to the USD 2,400 mark each day. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Solutions Geneva, shares his views on tuna, pianos and why he is not short the Japanese yen. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:41 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 06:56 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 12:31 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Apr 11, 2024 · 15 min
Markets under the spell of higher US inflation
Hotter US inflation lowered expectations of interest rate cuts. Wall Street reacted with a down day, but the weakness did not spread to European or Asian equities. However, it was government bond yields and the USD that rose sharply. Today's focus is on the ECB's rate decision – a rate cut is not expected, so the focus will be on the comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde. And the JPY is at its lowest level since 1980, raising the spectre of monetary intervention. Tensions are rising in the Middle East, but so far the markets have remained calm. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that the latest news on supply and demand dynamics is very supportive for copper, and Nicolas Jordan from the CIO Office highlights the benefits of Swiss and value stocks in diversified equity portfolios. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 07:21 Copper update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research) 10:35 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis) 14:01 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Apr 10, 2024 · 15 min
Everyone’s waiting for US inflation data
Market action appears subdued as investors around the world await key US inflation data later today. Meanwhile, on a more company-specific level, ‘everything AI’ still seems to be the trend. In the Asia-Pacific region overnight, data showed that Japan’s corporate inflation rate rose for the third month in a row, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.5%. Fixed Income strategist Dario Messi joins the show today to discuss longer-maturity bonds, and Mathieu Racheter, our Head of Equity Strategy, previews the upcoming earnings season. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:34 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 05:12 Bond Market Update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy) 10:08 Q1 Earnings Season Preview by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy) 14:04 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Apr 9, 2024 · 13 min
Who will move first – the ECB or the Fed?
The major US equity indices closed around flat yesterday while small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 index gaining 0.5%. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.43%, prompting investors to raise their bets on the Fed cutting rates just twice this year following last week’s jobs data upside surprise. And David Kohl, Chief Economist, provides his outlook for the future interest rate policy paths for the Fed and the ECB. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 05:54 Outlook for the Fed and ECB by David Kohl (Chief Economist) 11:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Apr 8, 2024 · 11 min
10-year US rates approaching key levels
Markets had a difficult start to the second quarter last week, with the S&P 500 posting its worst weekly performance for 3 months as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices led to growing concerns about inflation. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report on Friday has led investors to continue to price in fewer Fed rate cuts, pushing yields on government bonds to key levels. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why 4.5% is an important level for 10-year US Treasury yields. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing) 07:10 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research) 10:21 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Apr 5, 2024 · 12 min
Stocks slip and oil gains on Middle East jitters
Markets took a sharp risk-off turn in late US trading yesterday. The main catalyst was rising tensions in the Middle East, with oil prices rallying above USD 90/bbl for the first time since October, which in turn added to existing fears about inflation. In Switzerland, inflation figures for March once again surprised to the downside, which put pressure on the Swiss franc. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about what he expects for the safe-haven currency going forward and why he expects some currency crosses to continue to trade rangebound. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:21 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing) 07:02 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 11:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Apr 4, 2024 · 15 min
Global equities back in the green
After a cautious start to Q2, equity markets regained their stride in Wednesday’s session climbing higher across regions. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed is still in wait-and-see mode when it comes to rate cuts, but markets took more comfort from the fact that he reaffirmed that the Fed is likely to cut rates this year. Our Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, Norbert Rücker, explains the different narratives at play in the oil market and what they might mean for the future trajectory of the oil price, and Head of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, makes the case for his upgrade of global industrial stocks to Overweight. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 06:09 Oil by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research) 10:05 Industrials upgrade by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy) 14:37 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Apr 3, 2024 · 12 min
A poor start to the new quarter
The second quarter is off to a rocky start for global equities as sticky inflation data and strong economic figures have pushed bond yields higher and their prices lower, weighing on a stock market that has so far ignored the repricing of central bank rate cuts in recent months. The only asset currently seeing an upside seems to be commodities, with oil hitting a five-month high and gold reaching a record high yesterday. Fixed Income strategist Dario Messi joins the show today to discuss the latest bond moves and what they mean for investors right now. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:38 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 06:10 Bond Market Update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy) 10:52 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Apr 2, 2024 · 10 min
Stocks down and yields up on strong US factory data
Strong US manufacturing data, pointing to expansion for the first time in over a year, pushed US Treasury yields higher and stocks lower, albeit in light trading. Meanwhile, gold continues to trade higher, almost on a daily basis. But Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, says investors should favour productive assets as momentum remains strong in many parts of the market. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:28 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 05:56 Technical analysis by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research) 09:31 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Mar 28, 2024 · 12 min
Stocks push towards new all-time highs in light trading
The equity market rally is continuing ahead of the Easter break, while fixed income markets are a little less euphoric following Federal Reserve Governor Waller’s comments that recent economic data does not warrant as many interest rate cuts as expected. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, argues that sentiment in the gold market is overly bullish. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 06:17 Gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research) 10:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Mar 27, 2024 · 11 min
Falling yen lifts Japanese stocks
While there are still a few trading days left in the quarter, equity trading already seems to be driven by end-of-quarter positioning. Overnight in Asia, Japanese stocks rose as the yen fell to its lowest level against the US dollar in around 34 years, while the rest of Asia struggled for momentum. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research joins the show today to discuss the Swiss National Bank's interest rate decision and what it means for Swiss franc-denominated bonds. 00:00 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) 01:06 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 06:39 CHF bonds by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research) 10:18 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Mar 26, 2024 · 11 min
Social media stocks in the spotlight
Social media stocks are in the spotlight as the EU takes a closer look at their activities and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signs a bill banning minors under 14 from having social media accounts. In fixed income, the US yield curve has been inverted for more than 430 trading days, the longest period on record. In Asia, the Chinese government continues its efforts to shore up confidence amid a slowdown in foreign investment. Meanwhile, cocoa prices are at an all-time high, trading higher than copper for the first time ever. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research talks about Bitcoin’s healthy correction and what’s next for the world’s number one digital asset. 00:00 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 00:23 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) 06:20 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research) 10:04 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Mar 25, 2024 · 9 min
Equity markets get the green light
US equities had their best week of the year, with the technology sector leading the way. Global equities were also strong. The broader risk-on sentiment was driven by relatively dovish central bank meetings on both sides of the Atlantic, including the first G10 rate cut of the cycle by the SNB. The dovish backdrop led to a sharp fall in global government bond yields. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the show to discuss the market's technical setup and what the strong momentum in European equity markets means going forward. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:59 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing) 05:15 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research) 08:48 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Mar 22, 2024 · 16 min
The SNB’s surprise move
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets by cutting interest rates ahead of other major central banks, sending Swiss equities higher yesterday. Equities were also higher elsewhere: in the US, all three major indices closed at record levels, and European equities also ended at new all-time highs, with UK equities seeing strong gains. Overnight in Asia, however, stock markets were mostly lower, with Japan – once again – being the outlier. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, and Markus Waeber from Real Estate Advisory join today’s show to discuss what the central banks' decisions mean for the FX and Swiss real estate markets. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:45 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing) 07:02 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva) 12:22 What the SNB rate cut means for the Swiss real estate market by Markus Waeber (Head Indirect Real Estate Advisory & Intelligence) 15:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.
Mar 21, 2024 · 10 min
Equities advance on Fed rate hold and booming tech sector
US stocks rallied yesterday, closing at all-time highs after the US Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a fifth straight meeting in a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent. The market optimism is extending to Asia today, where stocks are at their highest levels in nearly two years as the tech sector rallies. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides an update on industrial production in China, what this means for industrial metals and why we like copper. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing) 05:45 Industrial metals by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research) 09:10 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Mar 20, 2024 · 13 min
Stocks continue to rise ahead of the Fed meeting
Investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the much-anticipated Fed decision, with government bond yields stabilising yesterday. That didn’t stop equities in the US and Europe from reaching new record highs. The focusnow moves to central banks for the rest of the week. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategist, talks about the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank and what to expect from the FOMC meeting today. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) 00:25 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing) 07:10 Bond markets and central banks by Dario Messi (Fixed income Strategy) 11:59 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.