Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Jack Farley

Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.

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20 episodes
Updated Tuesday

Episodes20

Newest first

Tuesday · 1 hr 31 min
Victor Haghani on Death of Random Walk, and Passive, Buybacks, and LTCM
Victor Haghani — founder of Elm Wealth, co-author of “The Missing Billionaires” and former founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management — joins Monetary Matters to explain why the stock market doesn't follow a random walk. Drawing on his new paper "Who Killed the Random Walk?", Victor lays out a model where value investors, static asset allocators, and "extrapolators" interact to produce the excess volatility, momentum, and boom-bust cycles that classical finance theory can't explain. Jack and Victor debate whether passive investing is really to blame for market distortions, why stock buybacks are propping up the entire market, and why Elm Wealth's own models say US equities should only return about 6% a year despite blistering AI-driven earnings growth. Victor also breaks down the strange truth that "return chasing" and momentum investing sound identical but perform in opposite ways — and reveals how Elm actually allocates client capital across US and international stocks today. Recorded before Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness hedge fund imploded on a leveraged AI trade, Victor's answer about what really went wrong at LTCM in 1998 turned out to be eerily well-timed. Recorded July 21, 2026. Victor Haghani (Elm Wealth) on X https://x.com/ElmWealth Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 “The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions”: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1119747910?lv=shuf&channelId=500&plpRedirect=mhFallback Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
Sunday · 1 hr 5 min
Why Macro is “Pretty Risk-On” for Equities | Tian Yang of Variant Perception
In this episode, host Jack sits down with Tian Yang, co-founder and head of research at Variant Perception, to analyze the current macroeconomic landscape and equity market outlook. Tian shares why macro indicators point to a broadly supportive "risk-on" environment over the next three to six months despite recent pullbacks in semiconductor and tech stocks. He discusses the exhaustion of the agentic AI rally, explaining how capital is actively rotating into value laggards such as energy, financials, and healthcare. Tian also breaks down their Log Periodic Power Law (LPPL) framework, a tactical model designed to detect market bubbles and exhaustion signals to help time entries and exits. Beyond equities, the discussion covers broader macro dynamics, including central bank policy expectations, geopolitical supply-side shocks, and regional preferences for Latin America over markets in Europe and India. Finally, Tian details the systematic strategy behind their VPX ETF, which dynamically combines capital cycle, quality, and crowding models to capture upside relative to the S&P 500. They also talk about oil, gold, and IPO window in U.S. Variant Perception on X https://x.com/VrntPerception Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
July 29 · 1 hr 3 min
Mum’s The Word: Kathryn Rooney Vera on Fed’s Second Meeting under Kevin Warsh, Plus Earnings Breakdown (Live Replay)
In this episode, Jack sits down with Kathryn Rooney Vera, Chief Market Strategist at StoneX Group, to unpack the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates and Chair Warsh's transition toward a quieter, laissez-faire communication style. Kathryn shares her macroeconomic outlook, forecasting that we may still see rate hikes post-election unless widespread AI adoption delivers a significant productivity boost to offset inflation. Later in the show, Jack is joined by Max Wiethe for a live, unfiltered reaction to the latest mega-cap tech earnings from Microsoft and Meta. They analyze Microsoft's massive revenue and 43% Azure cloud growth, weighing these strong figures against the company's aggressive $41 billion in quarterly capital expenditures. Jack then bluntly breaks down Meta's quarterly results, labeling it a "disaster" due to a 55% surge in costs, an 8% drop in operating income, and unexpectedly weak forward guidance. Finally, the duo wraps up with a look at the semiconductor space, assessing how these fluctuating AI investments are directly impacting chip and equipment stocks like Arm Holdings and Lam Research. Kathryn Rooney Vera on X https://x.com/KRooneyVera Kathryn Rooney Vera on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/kathrynrooneyvera/ Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Max Wiethe on X https://x.com/maxwiethe Other People’s Money on X https://x.com/OPMpod Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
July 28 · 1 hr 8 min
Luke Gromen: Yield Curve Control is the Only Way to Stop a Global Bond Crisis
Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, sites down with Max Wiethe to dissect the escalating crisis in the global bond market. Gromen argues that off-balance sheet liabilities, such as baby boomer retirements and surging veterans' benefits, are colliding with massive defense spending to force a dangerous inflationary spiral. He unpacks how "defense stimmies" from nations like Japan and Germany are turning historical creditors into aggressive bond sellers, putting immense pressure on yields. Throughout the conversation, Gromen also issues a stark warning about the AI tech bubble, the incoming policies of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and why China's massive gold accumulation is a major red flag for the US dollar. Read The Forest for the Trees: https://fftt-llc.com Follow Luke Gromen on X: https://x.com/LukeGromen Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:52 Bond Selloff Explained 04:54 Debt Spiral Mechanics 08:22 Global Defense Stimulus 09:58 Real Yields Reality Check 13:20 Fed Chair Fantasy 15:34 Sponsor Break Fundrise 16:57 AI Trade Meets China 20:52 Labor Data Warning 23:02 AI Backstop Coming 26:28 No Long Bond Floor 30:44 Gold Revaluation Debate 35:27 China Gold Buying Surge 36:31 Oil Reserves And Leverage 39:19 Pain Contest with The West 43:22 Inequality and Instability 47:18 Dollar Down Yield Trap 50:03 Buy the Dip 52:12 Gold Targets and Gradualism 54:50 Bitcoin Lags Tech Risk 58:47 Warsh Fed No Good Options 01:02:55 What Breaks First? 01:05:33 Bonds Are the Biggest Bubble
July 26 · 46 min
Debt Service Coverage in Private Markets Is Improving, Actually | Nicholas Brooks
In this episode of Monetary Matters, host Jack sits down with Nicholas Brooks, Head of Economic and Investment Research at ICG, to discuss the true health of private credit and corporate balance sheets. Brooks argues that underlying corporate fundamentals and EBITDA growth remain highly resilient against macroeconomic and geopolitical noise. He notes that corporate interest coverage ratios are stabilizing in Europe and actually improving in the United States, pointing away from any imminent, systemic private sector risks. Instead, Brooks warns that the most significant medium-term threat to the global economy stems from soaring government debt and unchecked fiscal deficits, which could spark future market volatility and further weaken the U.S. dollar. The conversation also explores how massive capital expenditures in artificial intelligence infrastructure are currently acting as a protective buffer for the broader economy, even as the ultimate, long-term impacts on worker productivity remain uncertain. Finally, Jack provides his own post-interview analysis, highlighting the immense influence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on corporate debt metrics and exploring the reflexive nature of capital inflows within private markets. Recorded July 13, 2026. Nicholas Brooks on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-brooks-4738a927/ Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Nicholas Brooks works: “Recent US Credit Market Dislocation: Systemic or Idiosyncratic?”: https://www.icgam.com/2025/10/24/recent-us-credit-market-dislocation-systemic-or-idiosyncratic/ “Middle East Update: Implications of the war for the global economy and markets”: https://www.icgam.com/2026/05/13/middle-east-update-implications-of-the-war-for-the-global-economy-and-markets/ BIS paper on Debt Levels (“BIS Working Papers No 1235 Aggregate debt servicing and the limit on private credit”): https://www.bis.org/publ/work1235.pdf Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
July 22 · 1 hr 5 min
Interest Rates to 10%: Why the Treasury Market is the Real Speculative Bubble (Not AI) | Russell Clark
Learn more about Teucrium’s Soybean ETF (SOYB) here: https://teucrium.com/soyb Free E-book from Teucrium: https://insights.teucrium.com/why-investors-turning-to-commodity-etfs In this episode of Other People's Money, Max Wiethe sits down with hedge fund manager Russell Clark to discuss why he believes the U.S. Treasury market is a much larger and more dangerous speculative bubble than AI. Clark details his macroeconomic outlook, arguing that a shifting political landscape focused on 7% wage growth and lower living costs will eventually push the 10-year Treasury yield up to an astonishing 10%. To stabilize affordability for younger generations, he predicts real estate will remain flat nominally while heavily declining in real terms. Clark also breaks down the massive capital expenditures in AI, viewing them as defensive strategies by legacy tech giants to protect their moats rather than mere speculation. Finally, Clark also warns about sectors reliant on low rates and the severe illiquidity and mispriced risks currently lurking within the private credit and private equity markets. Read Russell’s Substack: https://www.russell-clark.com Follow Russell Clark on X: https://x.com/rampagingruss Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod SOYB Fund Page & Prospectus: www.teucrium.com/soyb Investing in SOYB involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Commodity investments are subject to significant volatility. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Teucrium Soybean Fund before investing. The prospectus contains this and other important information about the Fund. This material must be proceeded or accompanied by the prospectus. The prospectus is available atteucrium.com/soyb. Marketing Agent: PINE Distributors LLC. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:38 Why Treasuries Look Risky 04:33 Foreign Reserves Shift from Gold to Bonds 08:59 Politics Turns Inflationary 14:12 Japan Leads 16:09 Wage Inflation Drives Yields 20:37 Sponsor Break SOYB 21:58 High Real Rates New Normal 26:14 Trading Long View vs Noise 29:09 Housing Tug of War 34:02 Politics Converge Anyway 36:03 Chips Are New Oil 38:38 Is AI a Bubble? 44:12 AI and Wage Politics 50:37 Strategic AI Spending 54:17 Leverage Unwind Risks 59:29 Private Credit Red Flags 01:04:13 Wrap Up and Links
July 20 · 1 hr 14 min
Nick Nemeth: Private Credit Will Blow-up Insurance System | Immense Leverage, Shaky Loans, and Retirement System That Actually Does Have Run Risk (via Surrenders)
Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN): https://teucrium.com/corn Private credit has ballooned to roughly a trillion dollars, but Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets argues the danger isn't the banking system — it's insurance. In this Monetary Matters interview with Jack Farley, Nemeth lays out how private-equity-owned insurers have become highly leveraged holders of private credit and CLOs, why he thinks annuity surrenders could spark a run with no federal backstop, and how adjusted EBITDA, layered leverage, and lax loan ratings mirror the setup before 2008 — except, in his view, the scale looks more like 1929. He closes with contrarian rankings of Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, and Blue Owl. Recorded July 14, 2026. Teucrium on X https://x.com/TeucriumETFs Nick Nemeth on X https://x.com/NickNemo17 Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Nick Nemeth’s article, “The Smart Money Is the Subprime This Time”: https://mispricedassets.substack.com/p/the-smart-money-is-the-subprime-this Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez This episode is sponsored by the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN). Download our free eBook, "Why Investors Are Increasingly Turning to Commodity ETFs," to explore the macro forces shaping commodity markets today. Download the eBook: insights.teucrium.com/why-investors-turning-to-commodity-etfs CORN Fund Page & Prospectus: www.teucrium.com/corn This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. The prospectus is available at https://teucrium.com/corn. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Commodities and futures generally are volatile, and instruments whose underlying investments include commodities and futures are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For further discussion of these and additional risks associated with an investment in the Funds please read the respective Fund Prospectus before investing.
July 16 · 1 hr 16 min
Turbo Charged Trend Following: Why Capturing the Market’s Biggest Trends Means Embracing High Volatility | Moritz Seibert & Moritz Heiden | Takahe Capital
Moritz Seibert and Moritz Heiden of Takahe Capital dive deep into the mechanics of high-octane trend-following strategies and unpack why they target 25-30% annualized volatility, bucking the institutional trend of lower volatility to capture massive outlier trades like the recent cocoa and gold runs. They explore the heated debate between dynamic position sizing and classic approaches, revealing why letting winners run is crucial for massive returns. The conversation also touches on the emerging world of perpetual futures on decentralized platforms and why keeping trading models simple often beats complex fundamental analysis. Follow Moritz Seibert on X: https://x.com/moritzseibert Follow Moritz Heiden on X: https://x.com/moritzheiden Follow Takahe Capital on X: https://x.com/TakaheCapital Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:14 Do You Need Big Trends 03:21 Smooth vs Choppy Trends 05:00 Oil Curve Positioning 07:43 Model Design Not Discretion 09:24 Why Trend Funds Differ 16:02 Classic Trend Playbooks 19:04 Sizing Beats Entry 25:01 Perpetual Futures Reality 32:41 High Octane Philosophy 35:22 Letting Winners Get Huge 39:04 Why Trends End Late 41:55 Price Only vs Fundamentals 46:28 What’s Trending Now 49:57 Spreads Underperforming 52:37 When Signals Die 57:49 Simple Robust Parameters 01:00:59 Design Without Optimization 01:05:43 Diversification and Investors 01:09:32 Uniqueness and Market Mix 01:14:21 Who Buys High Vol 01:15:54 Conclusion
July 14 · 1 hr 27 min
The Semiconductor Earnings Boom Is Just Getting Started | Ben Pouladian on why AI is Real, Nvidia is Mispriced, and Capacitors Are Overrated
In this episode of Monetary Matters, Jack Farley sits down with semiconductor analyst Ben Pouladian of BEP Research to unpack the complex hardware supply chain powering the AI revolution. Pouladian pushes back against the bear argument that the current boom is merely a dot-com bubble repeat, explaining why Nvidia's ability to generate "intelligence" differs vastly from Cisco's networking commodities. He reveals that the true bottleneck in AI deployment is no longer a GPU shortage, but rather a severe lack of energized land and the tradesmen needed to build physical data centers. The conversation also dives into Pouladian's "token dollar" thesis, exploring how the global race for maximum compute-per-watt has become a modern geopolitical space race between the U.S. and China. For investors, Pouladian breaks down his top stock picks, including his unwavering bullishness on Nvidia, Apple's vital role in consumer AI privacy, and Bloom Energy's unique solution to the data center power crunch. Whether you are an institutional investor or just curious about the future of tech, this deep dive offers a clear roadmap for navigating the massive capital expenditures driving the semiconductor super-cycle. Recorded July 8, 2026. Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Ben Pouladian on X https://x.com/benitoz Ben’s Pieces on BEP Research we discussed: “The Token Dollar”: https://bepresearch.substack.com/p/the-token-dollar “Bloom Energy Is Actually Getting Deployed”: https://bepresearch.substack.com/p/bloom-energy-is-actually-getting Most recent piece, which addresses recent short reports on Bloom: https://substack.com/home/post/p-206941568 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
July 7 · 59 min
Breaking Down the Multi-Manager Playbook: How This $19B CIO Thinks About Alpha | Sean McGould | The Lighthouse Group
Sean McGould, CEO and CIO of $19 billion hedge fund manager The Lighthouse Group, joins OPM to discuss navigating today's bull market by targeting diverse sources of global alpha. The conversation focuses on Japan as a new source of alpha, spurred by the country's historic corporate governance reforms, the unwinding of cross-shareholdings, and the new NISA guidelines driving unprecedented retail investment. Additionally, McGould breaks down how the AI capital expenditure arms race is shaping global equity issuance and explains why the multi-manager "pod shop" model is the true modern successor to Wall Street's legacy proprietary trading desks. Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Japan Market Shift 01:29 Lighthouse Group 04:53 Why Hedge in Bull Runs? 10:43 Equity Issuance Signals 13:33 Capex Versus Meme Raises 16:27 AI Inside Lighthouse 18:20 Specialists vs. Generalists 19:42 AI Fuels Asia Outperformance 21:18 Japan Reforms and Nikkei 24:43 Korea Value Up Program 27:44 Fixing Incentive Imbalances 32:34 Sector Pair Trades Explained 33:56 Factor Neutrality Pitfalls 34:44 AI and Narrative Factors 41:54 Why Liquidity Means Capacity 44:34 Hidden Alpha in Regulation 50:30 Hedging Regulatory Unknowns 53:50 Peak Pod Shop Debate 57:40 Diversification and Market Liquidity
July 5 · 1 hr 3 min
The Ultimate Playbook for Reducing The Fed’s Balance Sheet | Professor Darrell Duffie on 4 Tools For Federal Reserve To Shrink Reserve Demand In Banking System
Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm It's no secret that the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, prefers the Federal Reserve to have a smaller balance sheet, perhaps a much, much smaller balance sheet. The consequences of this range from the mundane to the profound, but what is without question is that in order to reduce the Fed's balance sheet, there need to be additional tools to reduce reserve demand from the banking system. Stanford Professor Darrell Duffie returns to Monetary Matters to explain that to safely reduce Fed assets, policymakers must first address the liability side of the ledger by drastically lowering commercial banks' high demand for reserve balances. If the Fed simply sells off assets without adjusting this structural demand, it risks losing control of interest rates and sparking extreme volatility in repo funding markets, similar to the disruptions witnessed in September 2019. To prevent such a liquidity crisis, Duffie outlines four crucial policy tools from his latest research: utilizing temporary open market operations, easing stringent liquidity regulations, implementing software-driven liquidity savings mechanisms, and tiering the interest rates paid on excess reserves. While some of these proposed banking plumbing changes are already successfully utilized by other global central banks, their adoption remains highly debated within the Federal Reserve. Ultimately, integrating these innovative monetary tools could provide the necessary framework for the Fed to achieve a vastly smaller footprint in the financial markets over the coming decade. Recorded June 30, 2026. Darrell Duffie website: https://www.darrellduffie.com/ Pieces discussed: “The Payment System Puts a Floor on the Fed’s Balance Sheet,” Spring 2026: https://www.darrellduffie.com/uploads/1/4/8/0/148007615/duffie_bpea_payments.pdf “An Efficient Liquidity Savings Mechanism,” June 3, 2026: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6869662&__cf_chl_f_tk=0_Jrq4.M1jw0cY9jkTQugQHw531LRaR5X__LMj_0U.Q-1783272074-1.0.1.1-6nR7OVxYRqdVjoMHJTtUJ6A5vRg.ls3f_TfIWkVJqoo Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Fundrise on X https://x.com/fundrise?lang=en Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
July 4 · 54 min
The Real Estate Cycle Is Turning | Josh Pristaw on The New Cycle in Real Estate, Opportunity in Senior Living, Why AI Data Centers Are Too Big For Most Investors
Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm In this episode of Monetary Matters, host Jack sits down with Josh Pristaw, President of the $73 Billion real estate firm Clarion Partners, to decode the smartest institutional property plays for the new 2026 market cycle. Pristau incisively breaks down why Clarion avoids the massive concentration risks of direct data center development, opting instead to capitalize on the AI and e-commerce boom through their $42 billion industrial and logistics portfolio. He reveals senior housing as the firm's highest conviction asset class, driven by an undeniable demographic tsunami where 10,000 Americans turn 80 daily, demanding a quintupling of current supply pipelines. Listeners will also gain deep insights into the multifamily rental market's recovery, which is currently being fueled by peak household formation demographics and stabilizing lease trade-outs. Conversely, Pristau outlines a starkly bearish case for non-trophy office spaces, citing massive tenant replacement costs and functionally obsolete designs. Whether you are navigating commercial real estate investing, private credit ripples, or core-plus fund strategies, this interview delivers a masterclass on finding high-yield stability in a shifting macroeconomic landscape. Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Fundrise on X https://x.com/fundrise?lang=en Pieces discussed: “A Golden Opportunity for Senior Housing”: https://www.clarionpartners.com/insights/senior-housing-opportunity “U.S. Core Real Estate: A New Cycle is Emerging”: https://www.clarionpartners.com/insights/us-core-real-estate-a-new-cycle “Building into the Future: The Case for U.S. Industrial Development”: https://www.clarionpartners.com/insights/us-industrial-development Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
July 2 · 1 hr 6 min
What If It’s Still Early? | Erik YWR on $10,000 S&P 500 by 2027 Case, Hyperscaler ROIC, AI CapEx, Semis, Exchanges, and Reverse Crash Risk In “Project Zimbabwe”
In this episode, veteran investor and macro strategist Erik from the Erik YWR Substack breaks down his bold bull thesis projecting the S&P 500 to hit 10,000 by the end of 2027. Drawing on his past investing experience in Africa, Erik introduces "Project Zimbabwe," explaining why higher inflationary eras trigger an "upward crash" where nominal assets like stocks and real estate surge even when the broader economy feels sluggish. He challenges today’s market bears by comparing the current AI and semiconductor boom to the 1999 dot-com era, arguing that accelerating earnings growth and revolutionary technology could justify significantly higher market multiples. Beyond the tech trade, Erik highlights massive opportunities in European and Japanese banks transitioning back to a "risk-on" posture, alongside financial exchanges like CME and ICE that stand to thrive on rising market speculation. He also candidly addresses his toughest underperforming trades in Hong Kong and Chinese tech, differentiating between mainland China's robust hardware plays and Hong Kong's heavily disrupted e-commerce software sector. Ultimately, Erik warns that the greatest long-term risk for investors isn't a temporary 20% market correction, but the wealth erosion of sitting on the sidelines while the cost of living skyrockets around them. Recorded June 29, 2026. Follow Erik YWR on X https://x.com/erik_ywr?lang=en Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/jackfarley96 Erik YWR’s Substack https://www.ywr.world/ Pieces Discussed In Interview: “YWR: S&P $10,000 Update,” June 16, 2026:https://www.ywr.world/p/ywr-s-and-p-10000-update “YWR: Global Factor Model,” June 27, 2026: https://www.ywr.world/p/ywr-global-factor-model-9b9 “YWR: Friday Money Maker(s),” June 19, 2026 (on ICE CME and Exchanges): https://www.ywr.world/p/ywr-friday-money-makers Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
June 30 · 51 min
Top IPO Scholar on Unprecedented IPO Wave & Why IPOs Underperform the Market | Jay Ritter
Leading IPO researcher Jay Ritter, widely known as "Mr. IPO" and the director of the IPO Initiative at the University of Florida's Warrington College of Business breaks down the historic 2026 public market landscape. Ritter analyzes the unprecedented potential for a wave of mega-IPOs from tech giants like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. He dives into the realities of staggering price-to-sales ratios, warning that while AI offers immense technological promise, eye-watering trillion-dollar valuations leave very little room for error. Ritter also cuts through the hype surrounding retail access to venture capital and private equity, explaining why extra layers of middlemen, "volatility washing," and an evaporating illiquidity premium mean average investors aren't actually missing out on a free lunch. Professor Ritter’s IPO Data: https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/ipo-data/ Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:58 Meet Mr IPO 01:40 2026 is Unprecedented 02:52 Do IPOs Signal Tops 04:27 How IPO Pricing Works 05:57 SpaceX Valuation Risks 09:26 TAM Hype and Cursor 13:27 2026 Versus Past Waves 16:17 Must Own AI Exposure 19:46 Regulation and Unintended Effects 27:29 Geopolitics and Dual Use 29:10 Will IPO Volume Boom? 32:40 VC/PE = No Free Lunch 35:36 Retail Access Fee Stacking 39:14 Volatility Washing and Perps 49:09 Sentiment and Final Takeaways
June 29 · 54 min
Rothschilds, Railroads, & Ruin | Liaquat Ahamed on “1873” (New Book!)
Liaquat Ahamed, legendary financial historian and author, joins Jack to discuss his latest book, "1873: The Rothschilds, the First Great Depression, and the Making of the Modern World.” Ahamed unpacks the 1873 financial crisis, explaining how Germany's abrupt move from silver to gold during a market panic triggered a massive global scramble for precious metals and severe deflation. He details the preceding infrastructure boom driven by the Rothschilds' bond market expansion, which eventually collapsed due to excessive railroad construction and the infamous Credit Mobilier corruption scandal. Transitioning to modern markets, Ahamed compares the 19th-century railway mania to today's trillion-dollar global AI and data center investment boom. He warns that fierce competition in the AI sector could lead to poor returns and a series of mini boom-bust cycles. While expressing concern over modern speculative bubbles in crypto and loose central bank policies, Ahamed remains hopeful that these technological innovations will spark a significant productivity jump. Recorded June 9, 2026. “1873”: on Publish Penguin Random House: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/306461/1873-by-liaquat-ahamed/ “1873”: on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/1873-Rothschilds-Depression-Making-Modern/dp/1594204179 Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/jackfarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
June 24 · 47 min
Inside The Platform Helping to Invest Like Substack & FinTwit's Top Researchers | Plutus
In this episode of Other People's Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with Shashank Chiranewala, founder of the new investment platform Plutus, to explore the future of independent research and portfolio management. Shashank explains why his platform is fundamentally different from the copy trading trend, emphasizing the importance of aligning model portfolios with an investor's unique risk-reward needs rather than blindly following a single strategy. They dive into the technical nightmares of executing global, active strategies on your own—like navigating foreign market rules and tracking errors—and how Plutus provides an automated, seamless execution solution for both individual and professional investors. Finally, they discuss why top independent researchers from Substack and FinTwit are choosing to list their portfolios on Plutus rather than launching traditional fund vehicles. Check out Plutus: https://www.runplutus.com/ Follow Plutus on X: https://x.com/RunPlutus Follow Shashank on X: https://x.com/sonny_seattle Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:37 The Broken Options 03:54 From Research to Investing 04:28 Why Not Copy Trading 07:56 SPY and Portfolio Fit 12:25 Building Multi Portfolio Strategies 14:58 Menu vs Tools Debate 20:34 Execution Is the Moat 25:17 Meet the Research Partners 28:18 Who Uses Plutus? 32:04 Creators and Regulation 36:26 Big Vision and Tokenization 38:42 Taxes and Compliance 44:43 How the Platform Works 46:32 Conclusion
June 21 · 1 hr 10 min
Ed Zitron: The AI Bubble is Bleeding Cash, Here Are The Receipts
Ed Zitron is one of the most prolific skeptic of the AI Boom. Having just reported OpenAI’s 2025 financial loss, he joins Jack to argue that the sheer size of the losses by the large language model (LLM) companies are unsustainable and the operational costs of training and running LLMs far exceeds the revenue customers are willing to pay. Ed also discusses Meta’s confusing AI strategy, the risk (and fall?) of the tokenmaxxing era, and Anthropic’s suspension of Fable 5. Recorded June 19, 2026. Pieces discussed in the interview: “Exclusive: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, With Spending Hitting $34 Billion”: https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/ “AI Is Slowing Down”: https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down/ “AI's Brokenomics”: https://www.wheresyoured.at/brokenomics/ “OpenAI spending hit $34bn last year ahead of planned IPO”: https://www.ft.com/content/e15b0d7e-ff6b-4f16-ba7a-4068feddb828?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Follow Ed Zitron on X https://x.com/edzitron Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/jackfarley96Ed’s newsletter: https://www.wheresyoured.at/ Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
June 20 · 55 min
Jim Chanos & Val Zlatev: Long and Short Alpha in AI, Semiconductors, Neoclouds, and Data Centers | MacroMinds Symposium 2026
In this panel at MacroMinds Symposium, Jack Farley sits down with legendary short seller Jim Chanos and Val Zlatev, Portfolio Manager and Partner at Analog Century Management, to analyze the long and short opportunities of the AI and semiconductor boom. Chanos highlights a significant timing disconnect wherein chip suppliers recognize revenues immediately while hyperscalers capitalize their massive infrastructure costs—a trend mirroring the late-1990s CapEx boom before tech earnings collapsed by 40%. Chanos expresses deep skepticism toward "neo-cloud" data center developers like CoreWeave, modeling a very generous ten-year GPU lifespan (depreciation schedule) to forecast low pre-tax returns on invested capital. From a micro perspective, Val Zlatev outlines the structural upside for high-demand memory stocks, noting they trade at cheap forward multiples because physical supply chain constraints hard-cap semiconductor equipment manufacturing growth at 30% annually. The discussion also scrutinizes Elon Musk’s projection for one terawatt of compute capacity, breaking down the immense real-world barriers facing space data centers, including launch costs, space radiation, and maintenance logistics. They also dissect the SpaceX S1 filing, revealing that the primary rocket launch division continues to lose money despite the profitability of Starlink. Recorded on June 4th at MacroMinds Symposium. About MacroMinds: At MacroMinds, our vision is to unite the investment community in support of organizations that are making a meaningful difference in the lives of students and their families. By partnering with high-impact nonprofits that serve socio-economically disadvantaged communities and schools, MacroMinds is committed to helping close the educational gap and expand opportunity across the New York area. MacroMinds website: https://macrominds.org/ https://macrominds.org/donate/ Charities supported by 2026 Symposium: NYC First: https://macrominds.org/nyc-first/ Opportunity Music Project: https://macrominds.org/opportunity-music-project/ 100 Women in Finance: https://macrominds.org/100-women-in-finance/ Follow Jim Chanos on X https://x.com/RealJimChanos?lang=en Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/jackfarley96 Follow Monitoring The Situation (MTS) on X https://x.com/MTSlive Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
June 18 · 1 hr 19 min
The US Manufacturing and Electrification Megatrends Are Here and They’re Way More Than AI | Chris Semenuk
In this episode of Other People’s Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with Chris Semenuk, an investment partner at Tema ETFs, to discuss the massive secular tailwinds driving the US manufacturing and electrification renaissance. Semenuk argues that after a three-year recession and decades of underinvestment, US industrial capacity and manufacturing are finally entering a powerful recovery cycle. Moving beyond the hype of AI and hyperscalers, they explore how "boring" short-cycle industrial companies like those producing essential components like ball bearings, pneumatics, and filters are primed for extraordinary earnings growth. They also discuss how America’s electrification mega trend goes beyond the AI data center buildout. Follow Chris on X: https://x.com/ChrisSemenuk Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Manufacturing Recession Ends 00:46 Meet the Industrial Bull 02:00 Proof Reindustrialization Is Real 05:28 What Reindustrialization Really Means 07:49 Why Companies Build Here 12:45 Advanced Goods Not Old Jobs 15:52 AI Hype Versus Reality 17:27 Picking the Equipment Winners 21:46 Inside Factory Wall Plays 23:26 Short Cycle Sequencing 27:53 Destocking Rates Tariffs Fog 32:28 Why Stocks Held Up 37:03 Valuing Cyclical Industrials 45:05 Tariffs Drive Onshoring 50:31 Humanoids And Automation 54:31 Grid Demand Inflection 57:05 Behind the Meter Reality 01:01:10 Rural Utilities Winners 01:08:22 High Voltage Bottleneck 01:14:40 Service Backlogs and Duration 01:18:28 Secular Tailwinds Wrap Up
June 15 · 1 hr 5 min
Regulatory Risk is Coming For AI | David Woo on AI Data Center CapEx and Iran War
Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN): https://teucrium.com/corn In this episode of Monetary Matters, host Jack Farley sits down with independent economist and strategist David Woo to break down the hidden realities behind global tech markets and macroeconomics. Woo reveals how component inflation and artificial "token maxing" have created an optical illusion of accelerating corporate earnings, obscuring a real-term slowdown in tech hyperscaler CapEx. Rather than arguing that artificial intelligence lacks power, Woo presents a stark AI bear case rooted in imminent global regulatory crackdowns as advanced frontier models like Claude Mythos introduce severe cybersecurity and national security risks. He predicts that the broader AI industry is rapidly heading toward intense competition and commoditization, which will ultimately turn current hardware shortages into a massive compute glut. Turning to geopolitics, Woo details why he remains heavily bullish on oil as active military conflicts between Iran and Israel continue to jeopardize the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Applying game theory to President Trump's ongoing ceasefire negotiations, he asserts that Iran is exploiting Washington's public push for a deal to extract tougher terms that will inevitably drive energy prices even higher. Recorded June 10, 2026. ____ Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez __ This episode is sponsored by the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN). Download our free eBook, "Why Investors Are Increasingly Turning to Commodity ETFs," to explore the macro forces shaping commodity markets today. Download the eBook: insights.teucrium.com/why-investors-turning-to-commodity-etfs CORN Fund Page & Prospectus: www.teucrium.com/corn This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. The prospectus is available at https://teucrium.com/corn. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Commodities and futures generally are volatile, and instruments whose underlying investments include commodities and futures are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For further discussion of these and additional risks associated with an investment in the Funds please read the respective Fund Prospectus before investing. CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT are commodity pools regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The Funds do not track the spot price of corn, sugar, soybeans or wheat. These Funds, which are ETPs, are not a mutual fund or any other type of Investment Company within the meaning of the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and are not subject to regulation thereunder. Teucrium Trading, LLC is the Sponsor for CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT. PINE Distributors LLC is the Marketing Agent for CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT and is not affiliated with Teucrium Investment Advisors, LLC and Teucrium Trading, LLC.