Markets Unscripted

2 Traders, 1 Goal - Honest Conversations

Markets Unscripted brings together two traders who approach the same world from opposite sides — and still end up finding truth in the same place.

Each episode cuts through noise, narrative, and prediction to uncover what’s actually moving markets — the behaviour, psychology, and structure underneath price.

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S1 · E35
Monday · 44 min
The Bond Market Is Finally Saying “Enough” and the Market is Feeling It!
The major indexes may still be near their highs, but beneath the surface, the market is sending a very different message.Consumer staples are outperforming. Coca-Cola is pushing higher. NVIDIA and other AI leaders are weakening—even when the news appears positive. At the same time, rising long-term yields and intervention in the Treasury market are raising bigger questions about how the enormous AI buildout will be financed.In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro discuss:• Why defensive stocks are suddenly taking the lead• What the bond market may be warning investors about• Why AI stocks are struggling to rally on good news• The growing financing risk behind the AI infrastructure boom• Why long-term bonds may be the most contrarian trade in the world• How professional traders stack the odds without predicting the future• Why position sizing matters—even when the setup looks perfectThe market does not care about the story. Ultimately, the tape tells you what is actually happening.Learn more from Matt Caruso and Caruso Insights:https://www.carusoinsights.comRead Jason Shapiro’s Crowded Market Report:https://www.crowdedmarketreport.comThis content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.#StockMarket #AIStocks #NVIDIA #BondMarket #Trading
August 17 · 44 min
Crowded Longs, Failing AI Leadership & the 90% Win-Rate Lie
The market is sitting near all-time highs—but beneath the surface, some of its former leaders are flashing warning signs. In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine why many AI-related stocks have struggled to reclaim their highs despite a powerful rebound in the broader indexes. They break down the changing leadership in names such as NVIDIA, AMD, ARM, Dell, Caterpillar, Nebius, and others—and discuss why traders should never fall in love with yesterday’s winners. Jason also reveals one of the most crowded trades he currently sees, while Matt explains why rising volatility and weakening relative strength have pushed him toward a more cautious posture. Then, the conversation turns to one of the most misleading statistics in trading: win rate. Why can a 70%, 80%, or even 90% win rate be a major red flag? Matt and Jason explain how traders can win repeatedly and still suffer devastating losses—and why risk-to-reward, drawdowns, and the size of your winners matter far more than simply being right. In this episode: • Why former AI leaders are struggling • The warning beneath the market’s record highs • Why lagging stocks are rarely bargains • Jason’s crowded-trade warning on copper • The hidden danger of short selling • Why trading more often can work against you • The truth behind advertised 90% win rates • How professional traders evaluate performance Learn more from Matt Caruso and Caruso Insights: https://www.carusoinsights.com Follow Jason Shapiro and the Crowded Market Report: https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com This content is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment advice.
S1 · E33
August 10 · 44 min
Bears Sound Smart. Bulls Make Money.
The market is back near all-time highs, corporate earnings are surging, and strength is expanding far beyond a handful of AI stocks. Yet many traders remain fixated on finding the next major collapse.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine why bearish arguments can sound so convincing—even while the market continues moving higher. They discuss the danger of becoming emotionally attached to the short side, why traders should focus on the market’s reaction to news, and what would actually signal that the bullish trend is beginning to break.Matt and Jason also break down the crowded positioning in the Dow, the recent breakout and reversal in the S&P 500, the upcoming inflation test, booming corporate earnings, expanding liquidity, and the growing strength across international markets, commodities, and traditional industries.The goal is not to remain bullish forever. It is to stop predicting what should happen and start responding to what the market is actually telling you.
S1 · E32
July 6 · 35 min
Banks, Gold, Biotech & AI: The Rotation Trade
AI stocks finally got hit with their first major test of this uptrend.After months of relentless strength, the leading AI names saw sharp volatility, major pullbacks, and a wave of rotation into banks, biotech, gold, small caps, and other areas of the market.So is the AI trade over?Or is this just the first real shakeout before the next leg higher?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the current market rotation, the crowded macro narrative around rates, the setup in gold and the dollar, why banks and healthcare have started to lead, and what the recent selloff in AI stocks may really be telling investors.They also discuss why big winners come with brutal pullbacks, why process matters more than prediction, and why no strategy avoids pain — it only defines how you handle it.Topics covered:AI stock volatilityMarket rotation into banks, biotech, and small capsGold, bonds, the dollar, and rate expectationsWhy crowded narratives can be dangerousThe first pullback to the 50-day moving averageWhy the AI trade may not be over yetTrading psychology after big gainsWhy there is no “perfect” trading strategyThis is not financial advice. Markets involve risk, and all trading decisions should be based on your own process and risk management.
S1 · E31
June 29 · 53 min
The Bears Have A Great Story. The Bulls Have The Trend.
Everyone wants to call the AI trade over.But what if this is not the end of the move — just the rotation before the next leg higher?In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why the market may be shifting beneath the surface, how small caps, banks, healthcare, housing, and AI leaders are rotating, and why the biggest mistake traders make is letting scary narratives override process.Matt also compares today’s AI buildout to the railroad boom of the 1800s — a massive infrastructure cycle that almost nobody believed in at the time — while Jason lays out the real risk: not that AI disappears, but that leverage, hubris, or credit stress eventually breaks something.They also discuss why bearish arguments always sound smarter, why bull markets are harder to sit through than people think, and how to use market signals instead of social media panic to guide decisions.
S1 · E30
June 22 · 55 min
This Is the Most Hated Bull Market Ever
Everyone keeps trying to call the top… but the market keeps refusing to agree.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why this may be one of the most hated bull markets they’ve ever seen — with AI, semiconductors, small caps, and new 52-week highs continuing to push higher while investors stay trapped in bearish narratives.They discuss why fighting the tape can be deadly for traders, how AI could be reshaping entire industries, why relative strength still matters more than opinions, and what signs Jason would actually need to see before calling a real market top.From Micron, NVIDIA, ARM, Intel, Caterpillar, small caps, Fed reactions, positioning data, and the psychology of investors waiting for the “perfect pullback,” this episode digs into the market’s biggest question:Is this a bubble… or are most people still underestimating the AI boom?
S1 · E29
June 15 · 52 min
BELIEVE IT OR NOT… THE MARKET IS STRENGTHENING
Markets are rallying hard again — and despite the constant bearish arguments, the tape keeps telling a very different story.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why the market appears to be broadening beyond the AI trade, with strength showing up in small caps, regional banks, healthcare, industrials, and other areas that many investors are still ignoring.They also dig into the psychology of traders who stay bearish no matter what the data says, why relative strength matters more than opinions, and how the market often reveals the truth long before the explanation becomes obvious.Matt also revisits the 2000 IPO comparison, including how lockup expirations actually played out during the dot-com peak — and why the timing of today’s IPO concerns may be very different from what the bears are arguing.Plus, Jason shares why AI may be a much bigger productivity shift than many people realize, and why the winners and losers from this new era could be massive.Topics covered:Why the bull market may be getting stronger under the surfaceSmall caps and regional banks showing surprising leadershipWhy bearish arguments keep shiftingThe danger of fighting the tapeAI as a productivity superpowerThe 2000 IPO parallel and what people may be missingHow Matt uses a “FOMO indicator” to manage short-term riskWhy relative strength keeps pointing to opportunityThis is not a market to sleep on.
S1 · E28
June 8 · 48 min
Is Liquidity the Real Risk to the AI Bull Market?
Last Friday, the AI trade finally hit a wall.After months of relentless strength, several high-flying AI-related stocks were hit hard, while a popular 3X South Korea ETF tied to the memory and storage trade collapsed more than 40%. Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why this may not be “the top,” but could be an important warning sign about leverage, liquidity, and crowded positioning.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt and Jason revisit Jesse Livermore’s famous 1906 liquidity warning, when competing capital raises in the railroad sector helped signal trouble before a major market decline. Today, the question is whether massive funding needs from AI infrastructure, Google, Meta, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could eventually strain market liquidity.They also discuss why bull markets usually do not end in one day, how deleveraging events can reveal the next leadership group, and why traders should be watching which stocks hold up best during market weakness.The conversation also covers possible next-stage AI beneficiaries beyond chips, including healthcare, software, data infrastructure, and select names showing relative strength.Topics covered:The AI trade’s sharp selloffLiquidity risk vs. valuation riskGoogle and Meta’s massive capital raisesSpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPO concernsJesse Livermore’s 1906 warning signalWhy leverage can destroy traders fastHow to spot real leadership during market pullbacksEli Lilly, Snowflake, Twilio, Veeco, and other AI-adjacent setupsBitcoin’s relative weaknessWhy position sizing matters more than most traders thinkThis episode is not about calling a bear market. It is about identifying the warning signs that could matter if liquidity starts to dry up.
S1 · E27
June 1 · 1 hr 20 min
SpaceX IPO: Former NASA Chief Engineer on Elon’s Launch Dominance
SpaceX could be heading toward one of the biggest IPOs in market history — but is it a bubble, a breakthrough, or something even bigger?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro sit down with Greg Frady, former NASA Chief Engineer for early commercial crew, commercial payloads, and the commercial lunar lander program. With 38 years of experience across major space programs, Greg breaks down what investors need to understand about SpaceX, Starlink, reusable rockets, Blue Origin, space-based data centers, satellite networks, and the commercialization of space.The conversation goes far beyond valuation. They discuss how Elon Musk changed the economics of launch, why Falcon 9 was such a major unlock, whether space data centers are actually possible, how Starlink could reshape global communications, and why companies like Planet Labs and AST SpaceMobile may represent the next wave of space-driven opportunities.They also cover the biggest risks investors may be underestimating — including launch failures, supply chain dependencies, government contracts, regulation, and why space stocks can move violently when things go wrong.Is the SpaceX IPO the top of the market… or the start of something much bigger?Key Timestamps00:00 — SpaceX IPO could be one of the biggest ever01:46 — How commercialization changed the space industry03:57 — Why Falcon 9 and reusable rockets changed the economics06:30 — Starlink, vertical integration, and SpaceX’s satellite advantage09:27 — How much SpaceX reduced launch costs15:45 — Why space is still hard despite SpaceX making it look easy19:28 — Did Blue Origin’s failure make SpaceX even more valuable?23:08 — What investors may be missing in the SpaceX valuation26:37 — Are space-based AI data centers actually possible?51:23 — Planet Labs, agriculture, and real-world space use cases
S1 · E25
May 26 · 1 hr 25 min
Is The AI Pullback Just Starting? | Real Simple Ariel Joins
Markets are finally showing selling pressure — and this time, the biggest AI leaders are taking the hit.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro are joined by Ariel Hernandez, known on X as Real Simple Ariel, for a deep discussion on AI stocks, momentum trading, market rotation, short setups, overextended leaders, and why traders need to know where they are wrong before entering a position.The group breaks down whether the AI trade is simply pulling back… or whether this is the first real warning sign that the hottest part of the market is getting crowded.They also discuss NBIS, Micron, ARM, SanDisk, Rocket Lab, software rotation, energy breakouts, IPO froth, SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and why the market may be entering a much more fragile phase.Key themes covered:AI stock pullbackMomentum leaders getting extendedWhy trimming into strength mattersHow traders know when to slow downThe danger of buying every dipShorting weak stocks in a strong marketWhether AI is still early — or already priced inThe coming mega IPO waveWhy price action matters more than opinionsKey Timestamps00:00 — AI stocks finally face selling pressure01:26 — Ariel breaks down the historic semiconductor run03:10 — Why strong leaders still need consolidation04:24 — Energy stocks break out while tech pulls back05:18 — The danger of buying every AI dip06:04 — Ariel’s “moving train” trading analogy07:35 — Jason questions where the uptrend breaks09:00 — Why new highs before the market matter10:43 — Jason: momentum works… until the bull market ends12:24 — Ariel explains when his own trades tell him to slow down13:57 — Jason praises listening to the market, not opinions16:19 — Ariel’s two favorite short-selling setups18:48 — Why short trades are usually quick tactical moves21:02 — Cybersecurity finally starts catching a bid22:47 — Bitcoin bros, positioning, and crowd psychology25:48 — “Do you want to be right or make money?”30:56 — Why every trade needs an exit before entry38:14 — How Ariel trims overextended leaders53:17 — Is AI still early, or already priced in?1:22:11 — The mega IPO warning: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic
S1 · E24
May 11 · 1 hr 4 min
Don’t Miss the Monster Stock Moves
Saturday May 16th Workshop Register Here: www.marketsunscripted.comEveryone is screaming “AI bubble”… but what if they are looking at the wrong thing?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the red-hot AI rally, why Corning’s move may be more than just hype, and why the comparison to 1999 may be dangerously misleading.Matt walks through why some stocks can actually become more attractive as they rise, while Jason explains why his contrarian process is not flashing the usual warning signs yet. They also discuss positioning, sentiment, passive investing, the next layer of AI infrastructure, and how traders should recover if they missed the move.Plus, Matt and Jason talk about the upcoming Markets Unscripted live workshop and the mindset needed to survive one of the fastest markets we have seen in years.Key Timestamps:00:00 — Is this an AI bubble… or just getting started?00:52 — Corning explodes higher on Nvidia news04:58 — Jason explains why he is taking the AI bull case seriously09:13 — Are AI valuations actually crazy?13:52 — Matt explains how to recognize a rare market environment16:12 — Jason says the dangerous words: “It’s different this time”20:20 — Why being underexposed to AI may feel like being short25:36 — Matt compares today’s rally to the dot-com era30:57 — Jason’s warning from surviving the 1999 bubble49:08 — What to do if you missed the AI move
S1 · E23
May 4 · 58 min
Google Put AI Bears on Notice — This Isn’t a Bubble
Register for the upcoming workshop on May 16, 2026: www.marketsunscripted.comIs AI really in a bubble — or are traders making the same mistake they’ve made in every major bull market?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why the latest Google earnings report may be a major turning point for the AI trade. Matt explains why improving AI monetization, accelerating usage, stronger cloud demand, and better unit economics could crush one of the biggest bearish arguments against AI.Jason pushes back on the bubble narrative and explains why so many traders calling this a “bubble” may actually be a sign the move is not as crowded as people think. The discussion also covers why shorting strength can be so dangerous, what traders can learn from the Big Short, the dot-com bubble, Apple, Nvidia, semiconductors, software, and why the best opportunities often look scary before they become obvious.Plus, Matt and Jason discuss the upcoming Markets Unscripted Live Workshop with live Q&A, where they’ll go deeper into the process, tools, and frameworks behind how they analyze markets in real time.TIMESTAMPS00:00 — Market races higher despite oil and Middle East tensions01:20 — Why Google earnings may be a game changer for AI02:30 — Google’s AI monetization, Gemini growth, and cloud demand05:00 — Matt: the AI bubble argument may be falling apart06:12 — Jason: “A bubble is a bull market I’m not long”09:20 — Why the tape keeps rejecting bad news10:37 — The danger of trying to catch the next “Big Short”16:25 — What positioning data says about Nasdaq traders19:30 — The AI bear case is shifting25:30 — Why underweight managers may be “short by performance”28:58 — Jason: fading price is one of the biggest mistakes traders make32:31 — Matt on why true market leaders take time to play out37:03 — Ride winners, cut losers50:30 — Semiconductors, software, and the AI rotation trade51:45 — How to track semis vs. software with SMH/IGV55:24 — Nvidia, competition, and the next layer of AI winners57:30 — Markets Unscripted live workshop announcement
S1 · E18
April 27 · 55 min
Traders Are Getting Locked Out Of The AI Rally
Upcoming Workshop: May 16, 2025Register here: https://www.marketsunscripted.com/ The AI trade is heating up again, and Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why this may still be the dominant force driving the bull market higher. They discuss why every major bull market usually has one leading theme, how traders psychologically lock themselves out of big winners, and why the AI move may still have much further to go before the real “bubble” phase even begins.Jason also shares lessons from past bubbles, including Hong Kong in the 1990s and the dot-com boom, while Matt explains why the next phase of AI could come from real-world adoption, earnings season volatility, and new leadership stocks.If you are trying to understand whether this AI rally is still buyable, too extended, or turning into something much bigger, this episode is a must-watch.Key Timestamps00:00 — Every bull market has one leading theme01:45 — Why AI is the only trade that matters right now07:49 — The trap of thinking stocks are either “too risky” or “too extended”11:26 — Is AI already a bubble, or is it still early?12:26 — Jason’s brutal lessons from past market bubbles20:22 — What real bubbles actually feel like28:02 — How COT data helped catch past market tops31:44 — Why earnings season could be the next major test40:08 — Why the war and macro fears may not stop the AI trend47:41 — Matt’s view on exposure, hedging, and waiting for new setups49:43 — “If it’s a bull market, don’t lose your lips”53:07 — Why this may be the exact environment for William O’Neil-style trading
S1 · E21
April 21 · 39 min
Bears Keep Fighting This Market Rally!
The market keeps ripping higher, and a lot of investors are getting left behind trying to make sense of it.In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the speed of the rebound, why this rally feels so unusual, and what history might be telling us right now. Matt compares today’s move to the powerful rallies of the 1990s, explains why shorting strength can be dangerous, and looks at whether this is a true lockout rally or just a catch-up move after extreme downside pressure.If you’ve been wondering whether this market has gone too far too fast, this episode will make you think twice.Key Timestamps0:00 Markets are racing higher in a powerful lockout rally0:30 Why the speed of this rebound has shocked so many investors0:52 Matt studies past market precedents, including 1995–19961:18 Is this rally extreme… or just a catch-up move after heavy pressure?1:38 The 1996 comparison: 24 up days in 29 sessions2:08 Jason weighs in on whether this rally can keep goingSubscribe for more weekly market breakdowns with Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro.
S1 · E20
April 13 · 1 hr 9 min
Bad News Isn’t Stopping the AI Bull Market | Linda Raschke
Legendary trader Linda Raschke joins Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro for a powerful discussion on why most traders are misreading this market.Despite war headlines, oil spikes, and nonstop uncertainty, the market keeps refusing to break. That is not random — and Linda explains exactly why price reaction matters more than the story.They also dig into the violent strength in AI-related stocks, why so many investors are still underexposed, and what traders should actually be watching instead of getting trapped by opinions, narratives, and noise.This episode also gets brutally honest about trading itself: how to simplify your process, how to identify real leadership, and why most people underestimate how hard it is to become consistently profitable.Subscribe for more weekly market breakdowns with Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro.This is not theory. This is how real traders think.Timestamps0:00 Linda’s core message: the market’s reaction to news is everything1:34 Why oil is not the main factor driving stocks right now4:01 Jason explains the big positioning shift happening under the surface6:29 Why AI and growth stocks have become the clear leaders7:31 Linda on how she actually finds relative strength10:19 The setups and market structures Linda looks for most12:31 How Linda reads futures leadership across markets24:58 Linda pushes back: is AI strength already too far gone?46:08 Linda’s advice on simplifying your trading process54:20 The hard truth: how long it really takes to become profitable
S1 · E19
April 6 · 57 min
Why 'Smart' Traders Fail: The Harvard MBA Trap
Markets are still swinging on every headline, but Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro explain why the reaction to the news matters more than the news itself. In this episode, they break down why this bounce may not be as straightforward as it looks, why traders keep getting whipped around, and which stocks are still showing real leadership under the surface. They also dive into risk management, relative strength, sentiment, and why staying flexible matters more than being “right.”Timestamps0:00 – Why the market’s reaction to headlines matters more than the headlines2:07 – Jason explains why the “crude is everything” narrative may be over10:00 – Matt breaks down relative strength and the stocks still leading20:14 – Microsoft example: why this kind of market can destroy traders35:26 – The real edge: taking small losses and riding big winners55:03 – The most important lesson: which “strong” stocks actually matter
S1 · E18
March 30 · 50 min
Stocks Are Hanging on the Edge Here
Markets have started to shift — and not just on the surface.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the growing signs of market fragility: growth stocks rolling over, leaders failing, 52-week lows expanding, liquidity weakening, and why this environment may demand a much more defensive mindset.Jason explains why he’s the most bearish he’s been in years, while Matt walks through the internal market data that shows this is no longer just a normal pullback. They also discuss why “everyone knows the market will bounce” can actually be a major warning sign.If you want a no-fluff, process-driven look at what the market is really doing beneath the surface, this episode is for you.In this episode:Why the market’s character changed last weekThe breakdown in growth leadersWhy 52-week lows matterWhat VIX is really saying hereWhy “cheap” stocks can still get much cheaperSilver, soymeal, and where Jason sees better setupsWhy now may be the time for discipline, not heroicsSubscribe for weekly market analysis, trading insights, and honest conversations about risk, sentiment, and process.Timestamps0:00 – Market weakness accelerates and character starts to change1:31 – Jason says he’s the most bearish he’s been since 20214:57 – Why failing leaders are a major warning sign9:02 – 52-week lows and internal market damage start picking up11:26 – Why VIX is a setup, not a signal33:29 – The April reversal example and what real confirmation looks like45:23 – Final takeaway: this is not the time to be aggressive
S1 · E17
March 23 · 1 hr 12 min
Why Tom Basso Stays Calm When Traders Panic
This week on Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro are joined by legendary trader Tom Basso for a masterclass on position sizing, drawdowns, risk control, and building a trading process you can actually stick with.And if you’ve been listening to the podcast, you already know what Matt and Jason bring to the table: real-world experience, no fluff, and practical process-driven market insight.That’s exactly why the upcoming Markets Unscripted Workshop is such a big opportunity. This is your chance to go beyond the podcast and learn directly from Matt and Jason in a live setting as they walk through the strategies, tools, and frameworks they use to approach the market every day.Get the workshop details here: www.marketsunscripted.comTimestamps00:00 – Tom Basso’s “pothole” analogy for drawdowns00:49 – Intro: why Tom Basso is the right guest for this market01:28 – Position sizing, unrealized gains, and managing snapback risk06:36 – Why rising volatility should force you to reduce size11:00 – Trade the system that fits you, not someone else16:30 – AI in trading: what it should automate and what it shouldn’t24:40 – Combining multiple systems to smooth returns31:30 – Why traders should care more about return-to-risk than big upside36:40 – The “market will do what the market will do” mindset41:30 – Futures, leverage, and why position sizing matters more than the instrument47:00 – Why Tom automated discretionary tasks out of his process50:30 – How to avoid curve-fitting and black-box trading56:30 – Longevity, humility, and ignoring flashy trading culture1:00:00 – Final thoughts and where traders should really focus
S1 · E14
March 16 · 47 min
Oil Panic, Bearish Bets, and a Market That Won’t Break
Markets opened the week higher even with all eyes on the Middle East, and in this episode Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why.They dig into oil, positioning, bearish sentiment, Bitcoin resilience, bond weakness, and why traders get punished when they try to outsmart price action. This episode is really about one core lesson: the market already knows more than any headline does.They also explain why relative strength matters more than news, why bottoms form when fear is highest, and why most traders are simply sizing too big for the volatility they’re trying to trade.If you want a real-world discussion on trading process, positioning, risk, and how to stay grounded when headlines are screaming panic, this is one of the most practical episodes yet.In this episode:Why markets rallied despite Middle East fearWhat oil price action may really be sayingWhy traders get trapped by narrativesRelative strength names like NBIS, CIEN, PWR and moreWhy Bitcoin has been acting better than many expectedWhat bonds and credit may be signalingThe truth about position sizing and emotional tradingNext week: Tom Basso joins the podcast.Timestamps:00:00 Why markets rallied despite Middle East fear05:15 Why price matters more than your opinion06:10 The better trade: focus on relative strength12:02 Why market bottoms form when news looks worst16:09 Following process over personal bias22:00 Positioning, put buying, and why the market didn’t break30:01 Bitcoin resilience and what it may be signaling33:16 30-year bonds, liquidity, and macro risk41:56 The real reason most traders fail: position sizing45:09 Tom Basso preview and final takeaway
S1 · E15
March 9 · 55 min
War, Oil, and a Dangerous Market Setup
Markets are being shaken by rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and increasingly erratic price action. In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the key signals traders should be watching right now — and why this environment may be far more dangerous than most investors realize. Instead of guessing headlines, they focus on what the market itself is telling us through liquidity, positioning, and price behavior. Topics covered include: • The QQQ vs Consumer Staples (XLP) ratio and what it says about market risk • The Up/Down Volume Ratio used by William O’Neil to identify buying vs selling pressure • Why traders are getting trapped in both directions • The role of oil prices and geopolitical tensions in driving market psychology • Warning signals coming from credit markets and liquidity • Why patience and risk management matter more than predictions They also look at historical examples — including the 1990 Gulf War market, Cisco’s early leadership, and Amazon after the dot-com crash — to show how major opportunities often emerge during chaotic markets. If you’re trying to navigate volatile conditions, this episode focuses on the signals that actually matter. Subscribe for weekly market discussions, trading insights, and real conversations about how professionals approach the market. 00:00 Markets rattled by oil spike and geopolitical tensions 01:03 The QQQ vs XLP ratio: a warning sign for difficult markets 02:40 Why traders keep getting stopped out in this environment 03:35 William O’Neil’s Up-Down Volume indicator explained 05:56 Jason’s take: positioning data and why there’s “no edge” right now 08:30 Why modern markets may be more efficient than ever 10:40 Risk management when nothing seems to work 12:30 The dangerous psychology of volatile markets 14:40 Why strict trading rules keep professionals out of trouble 16:00 Oil spikes and the strategic reserve debate 18:00 Lessons from the chaotic 2011 market environment 20:40 Why real trends require falling volatility 21:50 The psychology of oil and stock market reactions 25:40 Growth stocks sending warning signals 27:00 Historical comparison: the 1990 oil shock and market drop 29:00 “Patience, then pounce” – why traders should wait for opportunity 31:20 Positioning extremes in energy and commodities 33:00 Credit markets and liquidity warning signals 36:00 Why shorting the stock market is so difficult 40:00 The Cisco example: spotting early market leaders 43:30 Amazon after the dot-com crash: how huge winners begin 47:00 Listener question: why traders don’t just “take the opposite side” 50:00 The myth of high win-rate trading strategies 53:30 Key indicators to watch next week

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