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Mallen Baker: Faultlines

Mallen Baker

'Dangerously reasonable' analysis on politics, science, and particularly the bit where they bump into each other. I aim to give an independent, fact-focused, non-ideological take on the issues that matter.

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#677
Yesterday · 13 min
JD Vance Watches Presidency Slipping Away From Him
JD Vance has been used to seeing himself as the heir presumptive to Trump - but the midterms setback now has various people, not least the corporate executives and the funders, counting him out of the race before it's even begun. That may be premature, but what are the factors in play, who are the other runners and what chance does any of them have with two more years of Trump still to come? Let's discuss.
#676
Friday · 19 min
Trump's Bizarre Peace Deal Declaration For Europe and Russia | News Round-Up
In this news round-up of the week for Friday November 6th 2026: Trump signals a pending Ukraine deal that extends to the whole of Europe - there are causes for scepticism; The panic of tech bros at the results of the midterms is compounded by a massive stock market rout for their companies as investors realise a reckoning is on the cards; MAGA-friendly conspiracy theorist Russell Brand is convicted of charges of rape and sexual assault, but his allies won't accept a word of it; And Pete Hegseth
#675
Thursday · 13 min
Pete Hegseth In Line To Take The Fall Over Midterms Disaster
Many Republicans blame President Donald Trump as the obvious cause for the rout of the GOP in the latest midterm elections. But such comments are largely being made in private. In public, the top target for their ire and desire for accountability is Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth. Hegseth is, however, the cabinet member Trump most likes, and he seems torn between standing by his man, or alternatively finding him a graceful way out. But one thing is for sure - Congress is going to be coming fo
#674
Wednesday · 20 min
How Trump's Midterm Trouncing Has Changed America's Future
President Donald Trump approached the midterm elections with optimism that the results would be close enough that the administration could deflect, deny, seek to put its toe on the scale, anything to keep control of Congress. In the event, the vote was such a massive repudiation of Trump and his activities for the last two years, there was simply nothing that could have been done to hide the brutal fact of it. Now, the Republican choice of candidate for the 2028 election is about to kick off jus
#673
November 2 · 11 min
The Midterm Blame Game Has Begun | Trump vs the GOP
Unless a massive surprise unfolds over the next two days, Republicans are expecting a poor set of results from the imminent election. A muttering campaign has already started amongst GOP politicians and candidates to the effect that the bad outlook is very much down to just one man - President Donald Trump. Obviously, that's not how Trump sees it at all, so he is also casting around for someone to blame, and insiders are suggesting that his eyes are falling on Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth a
#672
October 30 · 18 min
Ukraine Defies Trump And Goes Back To Hitting Russia's Oil | News Round-Up
In this news round-up of the week for Friday October 30th 2026: Ukraine ends its unofficial pause on striking Russian oil refineries, in spite of Trump's demand that it doesn't before the US midterm elections; In those elections, Democrats continue to advance in the polling even though they score one self-inflicted own goal; And from Brazil to Israel via Serbia - right wing populists in the style of Trump are universally claiming their failed elections were rigged and that they actually won. A p
#671
October 29 · 15 min
Trump's Mid-Terms Meltdown Has Tech Bros Panicking
It is entirely natural that the Trump team, facing desperately poor polling right up to the last days before the mid-term elections, are feeling grim. But the interesting part is that corporate America, which for the last two years has been queuing up to give President Donald Trump much of what he wants, taking advantage of the culture of impunity and even corruption he has brought about - are suddenly staring into the abyss. If Democrats take control of Congress, their recent actions will all c
#670
October 27 · 14 min
Russia Just Admitted Trump Is Useless on Ukraine
What was carefully unspoken (but patently obvious) since the beginning of President Donald Trump's second term in the White House, has finally been acknowledged by the Russian leadership. And that only because Trump has now succeeded in destroying the majority of leverage the United States had in the Ukraine war - so Russia is signalling a shift in the power dynamics of how it expects the end game to play out. It's not gotten much attention so far, but it matters, we're seeing the practical sign
#669
October 26 · 20 min
Lula And Machado Give Trump His Worst Week In South America
US President Donald Trump has said that the whole of the Western hemisphere is his backyard, and he will behave accordingly. So far, it seemed to be working out for him, with a number of South American countries electing Trump-friendly candidates that he could work with. But, just as he thought he would see the same in the biggest beast of them all, Brazil - with the son of Jair Bolsonaro ready to take up where his father left off - Lula da Silva spoiled the party by nudging ahead in time for th
#668
October 24 · 10 min
Trump's Canada Blunder Blows Up In His Face
President Donald Trump is cancelling the tariffs on a number of Canadian goods as some of his candidates in the mid-term elections have sounded the alarm for how badly they have impacted their own communities. It's just one reflection of how reality is coming back to bite him where it hurts, and how he, and his team, are now panicking at the increasingly visible consequences on the horizon. And it stands as yet another major contrast between the erratic inhabitant of the White House and Canada's
#667
October 23 · 20 min
Did Musk Just Make The Biggest Mistake Of His Career? | News Round-Up
In this news round-up of the week for Friday October 23rd 2026: The question of who interfered with Ukraine's Starlink connection has continued - and it looks like it could have been the biggest mistake of Elon Musk's entire career; Protests erupt in Venezuela demanding a return to democracy, in the same week as the details of Trump's Venezuelan oil deal have leaked out. And it's not happy reading if you're Venezuelan. Or just, not corrupt; Also, I respond to a viewer's question on the worst cas
#666
October 22 · 15 min
Trump's America Prepares For Post-Election Chaos
Two things are going to explode after the mid-term elections have finally taken place - assuming that the results are anything like what the polls are predicting. One - President Donald Trump will launch a wide array of attempts to block, deny, obfuscate and overturn the result. And two - Trump administration members will escalate a period of savage infighting that, to all reports, has already started. What will emerge as the outcome of all that is as uncertain as it was when the Trump rioters w
#665
October 20 · 13 min
Why The French Riots Are Coming To The Rest Of Europe Soon
The weekend saw an intensity of rioting that shocked even a French public that is very used to street protests as a way of life. President Donald Trump said that it was all about immigration - but then that's what he says about any problem on the continent of Europe. The reality is that it's a combination of popular discontent, a hard crash of public expectations versus massive government debt, and also the deliberate stoking of the fires by malign external forces. All those factors are influenc
#664
October 19 · 17 min
How Putin Is Using Trump To Trap Ukraine
Two stories show how the imperial Trump presidency is going to continue to shake the world over the next two years, regardless of what happens in the coming mid-term elections. One - his attack on Europe for working to reduce its dependency on the US. He wants to use leverage as a weapon, and he will fight hard to prevent his victims from reducing his leverage. And two - his wish to achieve a grand deal with his chosen peer group - Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping - to foist a settlement on Ukraine
#663
October 16 · 23 min
Zelensky Remains Defiant As Trump Fumes | News Round-Up
In this news round-up of the week for Friday October 16th 2026: President Trump responds to Ukraine's defiance of his demand for them to stop bombing Russian oil - and it's rather tame. For now; Indications are growing that corporate CEOs are gearing up for the moment where they can declare to the world that they never supported Trump, and they just wanted to get back to business as usual; India is seeing a major citizens movement pushing back against an extraordinary move to purge the voting ro
#662
October 15 · 15 min
Zelensky Defies Trump And Hits Russian Oil Refineries Again
President Donald Trump came out this week as an agent of Putin's Russia, and adversary of Ukraine, and did so while demanding that Ukraine stop hitting Russian oil refineries. If it didn't, the US would likely withdraw all support. And it paused support for long enough to show what that would feel like. President Zelensky and Ukraine stared that possibility in the face - and went back to bombing refineries anyway. And he gave a frank interview where he plainly and simply spoke the truth about th
#661
October 14 · 16 min
Why Trump Cut US Support For Ukraine - And What Comes Next
Having threatened dire consequences if Ukraine didn't agree to President Donald Trump's demand that they stop attacked Russian oil refineries, over the last couple of days we've seen signs that those threats have turned into some action - maybe just temporary, to demonstrate to the Ukrainians what they stand to lose - maybe the beginning of a permanent withdrawal. This development, following Trump's breathtaking diesel deal with President Putin, lays out the US / Russia alliance in the starkest
#660
October 13 · 16 min
Russia vs NATO: The Ugly Truth Behind the New Defence Strategy
The top military leader of NATO just openly explained the alliance's strategy for dealing with possible Russian incursions into the territory of a NATO member. It's a construct that has obviously been carefully put together - but maybe not solely as the best military strategy for dealing with Putin. More like, the most that could have the faintest chance of sticking given that squatting at the heart of the alliance is one President Donald Trump. Let's discuss.
#659
October 12 · 17 min
Trump Just Showed His True Face As An Enemy Of Ukraine
Following his shock deal with Russia on diesel, President Donald Trump followed up by making it starkly clear that he is going to use that deal to try to force Ukraine to give up its most powerful weapon against Russia. Ostensibly, it's to lower world diesel prices (which it won't) and it serves the convenient purpose of seeking to deflect blame for high gas prices from Trump's war on Iran. But longer term, it all seems to be about forcing Ukraine to blunt it's attacks, or else give up the last
#658
October 9 · 26 min
How Iran Just Forced Trump To Retreat | News Round-Up
In this news round-up of the week for Friday October 9th 2026. President Trump acts tough on Iran, but can't cover the fact that the US has been mostly running away from them in the last couple of weeks. The US finds itself similarly in retreat over the one-sided deals it tried to force African countries into in return for health aid. And the protests in France this week highlight the huge crisis that is coming for the entire developed world if it doesn't pay attention and bit the bullet earlier

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