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Mallen Baker: Faultlines

Mallen Baker

'Dangerously reasonable' analysis on politics, science, and particularly the bit where they bump into each other. I aim to give an independent, fact-focused, non-ideological take on the issues that matter.

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#647
Yesterday · 21 min
Trump's Worst Week As Reality Smacks Him In The Face | News Round-Up
In this news round-up of the week for Friday 18th September 2026. President Trump has one of the worst weeks of his second term as all the big things come home to roost at the same time. Also, since Vladimir Putin shows no sign of ending his war on Ukraine in order to do deals with the US, Trump considers striking deals with him anyway, even as the war continues on. And Congress goes home a day early - purely to prevent articles of impeachment against defence secretary Pete Hegseth from being de
#646
Thursday · 19 min
Why Canada and Europe's Move Just Sent Trump Into a Fury
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke today at the European Parliament, just one day after EC President Ursula von der Leyen called for Canada to become the first 'associate member' of the European Union. Needless to say, this news - which, at first glance has nothing to do with him, went down extremely badly with US President Donald Trump, who remarked that if he decides this is a hostile act, he could end all trade with Europe, or Canada, or tariffs. Or something. But how significant is to
#645
Tuesday · 14 min
Republicans Turn on Trump Over Putin Oligarch Wedding Gift
A number of prominent Republicans have turned from Donald Trump and his family in disgust. Not because of Trump's support for Putin over Ukraine. Not because of his disastrous war in Iran. No - because a Putin-linked Oligarch funded a two-day wedding after-party for Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr. This was a blatant display of the most massive conflict of interest - and it underlined once again what we have known from day one of the second Trump term. Trump is an adversary of Ukraine, not an ally.
#644
Monday · 13 min
Trump Insists The AI Apocalypse Be Made In America
All weekend, the talk has been about the AI apocalypse, with the most well-known and powerful AI company leaders letting it be known that they favour a slowdown so the technology doesn't get out of control. It turns out that President Donald Trump has no time for such talk, he's obviously better informed on such things that the AI CEOs, and anyway - there's one driving reason why he doesn't want to slow down. And if it means accelerating towards aforementioned apocalypse, well, so be it. Let's d
#643
September 11 · 29 min
How JD Vance Is Getting Ready for When Trump Is Gone | News Round-Up
In this news round-up of the week for Friday September 11th 2026: The Iranians take actions to escalate the war with the US, even as Trump is trying to keep it quiet. JD Vance lays out his stall for his shot at the presidency in 2028 as echoes of politics-as-usual can just faintly be heard. Everybody is talking about whether AI is soon about to end all human life on the planet - which would put the other items into context. And Germany lets it be known it is not happy with President Trump's prom
#642
September 10 · 11 min
Why Trump's Big Bribe Is Designed To Fail
President Donald Trump spoke for two hours at his unusual midterm elections conference - and the big headline was that he promised to pay every adult citizen of the United States $5,000 should Republicans win both the Senate and the House. Yes, this is obvious and naked bribery. Yes, it should be illegal if anyone's enforcing such laws any more. But really it's part of a pattern - a promise that's made that is clearly going to fail by design. And while it's been truly massive in terms of grabbin
#641
September 8 · 15 min
Trump's War on Canada Has Nothing to Do With Trade
Today saw the imposition of Canada's retaliatory tariffs on the United States in the latest phase of its trade war with Donald Trump's America. In response, he has blustered and insulted, and today launched a broadside against Canadian aerospace firm Bombardier. But those covering the dispute as being about trade are missing the essential core of the conflict - which explains why the recent deal always had to fail, and the nature of the real struggle facing Prime Minister Mark Carney and Canadia
#640
September 7 · 18 min
The Far-Right AfD Just Pulled Down Germany's Firewall - And Maybe Europe's As Well
The AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt was not unexpected - polls have been forecasting the likely victory for months. But it remains shocking for what it represents. Because the AfD is not a populist like President Donald Trump, the clown show variety. Nor is it like Giorgia Meloni, the radical who detoxified the party into moderation. It is avowedly radical, and hostile to current Western attitudes to its core. And it has two big-picture implications that will resonate for the coming decade. Let's d
#639
September 4 · 22 min
Pete Hegseth - Trump's Pick For Next President? | News Round-Up
In this news round-up of the week for Friday September 4th 2026: The resignation of US Army secretary Dan Driscoll leaves Pete Hegseth exposed as more voices are raised against him - but could that actually make him the next MAGA presidential candidate? The US tells American space companies to consider avoiding a space conference being held by President Macron because the US wants to monopolise anything to do with space and France is to be considered a borderline enemy. And MAGA-lite Reform UK h
#638
September 3 · 16 min
Trump Needs The Iran War To Go Quiet - But Iran Won't Let It
The last few days have seen missiles exchanged once again between the United States and Iran. For all President Trump's threats to escalate and hit Iran 'harder than ever', he obviously is keen for the outburst to subside. And that's because the strategies have shifted into one where stalemate is the underpinning context, and each side is pursuing the course that they believe gives them the most advantage. Let's discuss.
#637
September 2 · 15 min
World Pushes Back Against Trump's America At The G20
The United States grabbed its turn to host the G20 summits in order to boast to the world about how wonderful its economic policies are, and to encourage everyone else to follow its lead, to submit to its rules, to experience the freedom of subservience. They may not have used those exact words, but not far off. By now, however, the rest of the world is looking to move on. Some, like the G20, are quietly planning their own path distinct from the Donald Trump one. Others - well, there was another
#636
September 1 · 17 min
Why Trump's Venezuelan Oil Grab Is Doomed To Fail
President Donald Trump shamelessly declared almost immediately that he aimed to get a big slice of Venezuela's oil for the United States once it had removed former dictator Nicolas Maduro. But not only is he finding the practical reality of that oil grab more difficult than he had anticipated, his administration is having to try to manipulate the creation of some semblance of democracy in the country in such a way that doesn't immediately reverse the plunder. And it raises questions about what l
#635
August 28 · 23 min
Why Trump's NATO 'Loyalty Test' Has Allies Scrambling | News Round-Up
In this news round-up of the week for Friday August 28th 2026: The US pushes NATO alliance members to declare their loyalty to Donald Trump, even as different stories emerge over the secret mission to talk to Moscow. President Trump signs an executive order to rename the Lake of Ontario while pretending it means something - but could the trade negotiations be restarted after a US climbdown? And AI firm Anthropic wins its lawsuit against Pete Hegseth's Pentagon over the retribution campaign being
#634
August 26 · 11 min
Why Trump's CIA Director Just Went To Moscow — And It's Not About Ukraine
John Ratcliffe, CIA Director, just made a surprise visit to Moscow. Nobody will say why, and speculation turned immediately to the idea he was there to push Putin on moving towards making peace with Ukraine. But that seems like wishful thinking, compared to the other likely explanations - one of which is supported by the suggestion of anonymous briefers, one of which is very much in line with this week's events so far. President Donald Trump has denied that anything significant is going on whats
#633
August 25 · 15 min
How China and Canada Block Trump's Bid To Dominate The World
President Donald Trump really wants to make the decisive move that will bring Iran to heel, and end the war there in triumph. But his best chance is blocked by China. And he really wants to be able to bully all the former allies of the US into doing whatever he wants, whenever he wants it. But his power to do so is being exposed as weak by Canada. As his frustration at his impotence increases, we are seeing more noise and drama, but none of it can hide the fact that his strength is ebbing away b
#632
August 24 · 15 min
Why Carney Called Trump's War On Canada - And Why Others Should Do The Same
The trade deal, which had been described as 'nearly there', fell apart. And Mark Carney explained after the event, it did so because a last minute insertion of demands that intruded onto Canada's sovereignty, as well as being one-sided. This is no surprise - it is the Trump playbook of the last two years. But Mark Carney went further, and called the US campaign 'war'. And this is the plain language that so far none others are daring to replicate. Perhaps it's time they did. Let's discuss.
#631
August 21 · 21 min
The Trump and Carney Showdown | News Round-Up
In this news round-up of the week for Friday August 21st 2026: Canada's Mark Carney is head to head with the Trump administration as attempts are made to get a last minute trade deal over the line. But is there more to it than meets the eye? Disney is fighting an apparent punitive censorship push by the Trump-friendly regulator, the FCC. And the US sanctions more top officials from the International Criminal Court - which could become a real test case in how many countries are going to be prepar
#630
August 20 · 15 min
Trump And Iran Are Both Changing Their War Strategy — And Only One Of Them Has A Plan
The war in Iran has been at a standstill for months, with traffic trickling through the Strait of Hormuz, and no real impetus for negotiations. You should expect that, in such a situation, eventually people will change their approach to seek to gain a breakthrough advantage. And over the last week, we've seen this being signalled by President Donald Trump, and also by the Iranian leadership. The nature of the emerging plans is different, and you have to imagine that the chances of success are li
#629
August 18 · 10 min
How Trump Is Quietly Bullying South America (And The World)
We've seen the bluster and the bullying of President Donald Trump in the headlines, but there is a quiet daily push going on much more under the surface. It is all the more insidious because it is little noticed, part of the daily friction of life in Trump World, and more to the point - it works. It is legal. It is unaccountable. And it is shaping decisions in all sorts of ways that many simply didn't see coming. Particularly focused on South America, as Trump claims the entire Western Hemispher
#628
August 17 · 10 min
Bizarre Trump Lashes Out At Allies, But Not The Enemy
President Trump has the appearance of a man furious at his lack of options - to the degree where he is thrashing out at whatever is within reach. So he threatened US ally Oman with being bombed if it 'gets in the way'. He slated ally South Korea because it declined to help him in Iran, even though its forces are very much needed on its own front line. However, he praised their enemy, North Korea. And, at times, he has praised as well the Iranian leadership. What is anyone serious to make of it a

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