Tension Beneath the Surface

Despite persistent geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, and a packed week of central bank decisions (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ), financial markets have remained remarkably resilient. But beneath that surface calm, the data are starting to tell a more complicated story. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension: Front-end yields repricing “higher for longer” Real-time US recession risks — contained A divergence in consumer confidence (US vs Europe) Tighter credit conditions in the euro area An intensifying semiconductor price boom And AI beginning to reshape labour markets The takeaway? Markets may be holding up — but the underlying macro is becoming more finely balanced.