Still Standing

Talk of a potential easing in Middle East tensions has steadied markets. But scratch the surface, and the macro picture remains far from settled. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension: • Global manufacturing holding up — despite higher energy prices • Shipping costs rising — supply chains tightening again • Oil production constrained — logistics, not demand, the issue • Policy expectations shifting — tilt back toward tightening risk • US bank lending standards – in neutral for now • Wage pressures still elevated — particularly in the UK The takeaway? Markets are still standing — but the balance between growth and inflation is becoming increasingly fragile.