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Macro Pulse · Yesterday · 14 min

Growth on Borrowed Strength

The world economy has taken war, political uncertainty and expensive money in its stride. But resilience is not strength. Growth now leans on a narrow investment boom whose financial and physical costs are climbing. In our charts this week: → A market retreat that punished the year’s winners in proportion → Japanese exports tracking the scale of the chip investment cycle → British wage disinflation losing momentum → Housing markets flat across the advanced economies → Chinese investment weakness spreading past property → Power prices climbing in every major market The question running underneath all six is whether this investment delivers productivity fast enough to cover what it costs. Until it does, the expansion keeps running on borrowed strength.

0:00-14:50

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The world economy has taken war, political uncertainty and expensive money in its stride. But resilience is not strength. Growth now leans on a narrow investment boom whose financial and physical costs are climbing. In our charts this week:

 

→ A market retreat that punished the year’s winners in proportion

→ Japanese exports tracking the scale of the chip investment cycle

→ British wage disinflation losing momentum

→ Housing markets flat across the advanced economies

→ Chinese investment weakness spreading past property

→ Power prices climbing in every major market

 

The question running underneath all six is whether this investment delivers productivity fast enough to cover what it costs. Until it does, the expansion keeps running on borrowed strength.

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