A Supply-Constrained World Comes into Sharper Focus

Markets may be taking some comfort from tentative de-escalation signals in the Middle East, but the economic aftershocks are still working their way through—via energy prices, supply chains and heightened geopolitical risk. This week’s charts focus on: • The global business cycle — momentum vs resilience • Elevated (and increasingly structural) uncertainty • Renewed supply chain stress • A more complex and uncertain policy backdrop • Questions around monetary policy credibility • Oil prices vs still-anchored inflation expectations A global economy that’s still running—but more fragile, more supply-driven, and harder to manage.