Geopolitical Cousins

Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic

Geopolitical Cousins throws together analysts Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic for some of the most in-depth, off-the-wall geopolitical analysis in the world.

Subscribe Listen in podnod RSS feed Show website

74 episodes
Updated Friday
Explicit

Episodes74

Newest first

Jun 13, 2025 · 1 hr 2 min
Israel Strikes Iran
Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic react in real time to Israel’s stunning military strikes on Iran. With key nuclear sites hit and top Iranian commanders killed, the cousins break down what this means for Iran’s capacity to retaliate, the role (or lack thereof) of U.S. strategy, and why Saudi Arabia’s response might be the most important of all. They explore the domestic politics behind Netanyahu’s actions, whether regime change is possible, and why oil markets barely flinched. A wide-ranging, unscripted conversation during a rapidly unfolding moment in Middle Eastern—and global—geopolitics. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (00:27) - Initial Reactions and Context (01:22) - Details of the Israel-Iran Conflict (03:45) - Analysis of Military Actions (08:11) - Geopolitical Implications (17:48) - Potential Outcomes and Speculations (32:52) - Civil War and Japan's Example (33:25) - NATO's Campaign Against Serbia (34:13) - Israel's Military Capabilities (36:45) - US Options and Iran's Response (38:46) - Conspiracy Theories and South Park (41:36) - Iran's Limited Retaliation Options (44:38) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Outlook (56:34) - Closing Thoughts on Multipolarity -- Referenced in the Show: -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Marko Papic Twitter: x.com/geo_papic -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Jun 11, 2025 · 1 hr 33 min
Manufactured Chaos
Marko and Jacob unpack the media frenzy and political theater surrounding the ICE raids and escalating protests in Los Angeles. Marko cuts through the noise, calling out the mutually parasitic relationship between Trump and the media, and argues that California’s political posturing may hint at deeper national fissures. They dig into immigration hypocrisy, federal overreach, and the geopolitical implications of a fragmented U.S. They also examine Trump’s pivot on China, the unraveling of the Elon alliance, and whether America’s populist moment is morphing into something more centrist—while the real victims, as always, are the self-driving cars. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (00:32) - Los Angeles in Turmoil (04:38) - Media's Role in the Crisis (10:14) - Immigration and Policy Debate (16:33) - Federal vs. State Authority (34:00) - Economic and Trade Implications (43:34) - Populism and Political Strategy (44:29) - Populist Policies and Economic Impact (46:08) - Immigration Policies and Political Shifts (47:04) - Italy's Political Landscape and Georgia Maloney (50:16) - US-China Trade Relations and Economic Strategies (52:28) - Immigration and US Demographics (01:16:41) - California Secession and US Political Polarization (01:32:48) - Future Topics -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Marko Papic Twitter: x.com/geo_papic -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Jun 6, 2025 · 1 hr 46 min
The New Age of Making Stuff (or Pretending To)
Marko tears into the political class’s inability to talk about industrial policy without veering into Cold War nostalgia. He and Jacob unpack why tariffs are back—not as economic tools, but as cultural signals. Marko argues that globalization was always a political project, and it’s unraveling just as planned. From American washing machines to European defense contracts, the cousins trace how manufacturing, war, and narrative-building collide. Jacob tries to keep things historical; Marko’s too busy declaring the return of geoeconomics. Also: French nukes, German industry, and why the U.S. needs a better plan than “make things somewhere else.” -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction and Episode Overview (00:11) Welcoming New Listeners (00:18) Debate on Globalization and Tariffs (00:57) Listener Feedback and Engagement (01:54) Marco's Haircut Story (02:41) Purpose of the Podcast (10:31) Debate on Tariffs and Globalization (41:21) The Decline of American Car Manufacturing (42:29) The Washing Machine Revolution (43:07) The Impact of Tariffs on Innovation (43:38) Debating Historical Trade Policies (46:14) The Role of Industrial Capacity in War (49:06) Globalization and Redistribution of Wealth (54:05) The 2008 Financial Crisis and Corporate Bailouts (56:13) The Future of Manufacturing and War (59:27) The Reality of War Footing and Defense Spending (01:08:22) The Ideological Debate on Globalization (01:14:05) Reflecting on Historical Conflicts with China (01:14:28) Proxy Wars and America's Capabilities (01:15:05) US-China Relations and Economic Strategies (01:17:41) Technological Advancements and National Security (01:30:30) The Future of Warfare and Global Power Dynamics (01:30:53) Operation Spiderweb: Ukraine's Drone Attack on Russia (01:33:35) Implications of Drone Warfare on Global Security (01:39:12) The Evolution of Warfare and the Role of Technology (01:45:58) The Future of Nation States in a Technologically Advanced World -- Referenced in the Show: Why Ukraine War's Deadly Drones Are Now Flying By 12-Mile-Long ‘Wires' - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLA_qgl2YYs&t=822s Why This Russian Drone Developer Isn’t Impressed by U.S. Tech - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmfNUM2CbbM&t=865s Geopolitics of Dune – https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-geopolitics-of-dune/ -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
May 29, 2025 · 1 hr 32 min
Uber-Manliness
Marko kicks off this week’s episode with a takedown of Middle East punditry, arguing that Biden’s calm, calculated response to Iran’s attack on Israel is exactly what stability looks like in a multipolar world. While Jacob frets over deterrence and mixed signals, Marko doubles down: ambiguity is the new clarity. They unpack India’s chaotic yet predictable election, game out what a third Modi term could mean for trade and alliances, and roll their eyes at the latest BRICS buzz. Also: Taylor Swift’s soft power, Saudi predictability, and why global order now runs on vibes, oil, and opportunism. Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (00:48) - Early Morning Dedication and Strategist Life (01:38) - Father Moses and the Rise of Manliness (04:12) - Orthodox Christianity Explained (06:14) - Russian Orthodox Church and Geopolitical Influence (11:04) - Cultural Shifts and Masculinity Crisis (15:23) - Debating Modern Masculinity and Education (17:42) - Political and Social Commentary (22:44) - Climate Change and Policy Critique (27:30) - The Role of Media and Public Figures (42:14) - Personal Stories and Reflections (46:44) - Toxic Masculinity and the Cornell Glee Club (47:08) - Russia's Offensive Immigration Policy (48:08) - The West's Immigration Strategy (50:57) - Impact of Immigration Policies on Education (56:20) - US Deficit and Fiscal Policies (01:28:59) - NBA Finals and Geopolitical Implications
May 22, 2025 · 1 hr 51 min
Maple Syrup and Soft Power
Marko and Jacob wrap up their Geopolitical Power Draft, spar over Canada’s place in the top 10, and debate whether demographics or tech will shape the next world order. Marko defends Canada with maple syrup, AI, and ag exports, while Jacob sides with rivers, realpolitik, and skepticism. They explore honorable mentions like the UAE, Rwanda, and a hypothetical Nordic Union, and ask whether non-state actors or city-states will dominate geopolitics. The episode is equal parts spirited bickering, big-picture theorizing, and long-shot speculation. Also: beavers, bunkers, and why Israel might be past its geopolitical prime. Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview (01:25) - Geopolitical Power Draft Recap (04:40) - Debating the Draft Picks (06:32) - Analyzing Geopolitical Power (17:00) - Honorable Mentions and Speculative Picks (34:09) - Final Thoughts and Adjustments (36:48) - Switching Japan and Iran (37:07) - Argentina and Indonesia Reordering (37:53) - Brazil's Regional Power (39:03) - Canada's Geopolitical Position (39:17) - Mexico's Potential Power Projection (39:46) - Canada's Strengths and Weaknesses (41:37) - Comparing Canada to Other Nations (45:42) - Technological Innovation in Canada (55:36) - Geopolitical Analysis and Predictions (01:06:32) - US Debt and Fiscal Policy (01:14:30) - Trump's Fiscal Policies and Tax Cuts (01:16:00) - Medicaid and Welfare Cuts (01:17:10) - Senate's Role in Budget Approval (01:18:29) - Trump's Stance on Medicaid (01:20:54) - Bond Market and Budget Cuts (01:24:10) - Israel and Anti-Zionism Debate (01:38:58) - South Africa's Racial Tensions
May 15, 2025 · 1 hr 26 min
Our 2025 Geopolitical Power Draft
The cousins return with chaos, caffeine, and an inaugural Geopolitical Power Draft - but not before Marko rants about Gulf monarchies, Trump’s diplomatic plane deals, and why Saudi Arabia might out-liberal Israel by 2050. He skewers Western pearl-clutching, explains why Qatar owes him a jet, and declares multipolarity the new default. Along the way: why Zelensky outmaneuvered Putin, how Xi is courting Latin America, and why the UAE is quietly winning the AI arms race. Then it’s time to pick global power players for the next 30 years. Marko’s playing 5D chess with industrial policy. Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview (01:00) - Geopolitical Analysts and Air Travel (02:45) - US Foreign Policy and Gifts (07:43) - Middle East Developments (23:13) - Saudi Arabia's Transformation (41:44) - Geopolitical Draft Introduction (45:51) - Geopolitical Power Index and Geopolitics as an Art (47:00) - Quantitative vs Qualitative Analysis in Geopolitics (47:20) - Defining Power and Influence (48:37) - Non-Linearity and Future Predictions (48:53) - Nuclear Power and Population Debates (49:07) - Critique of Demographic Obsession (51:09) - American Power and Multipolarity (54:01) - China's Position and Challenges (59:09) -European Union and Western Europe (01:04:05) - Turkey's Strategic Importance (01:08:16) - India's Potential and Challenges (01:11:56) - Russia's Geopolitical Influence (01:13:45) - South Korea's Technological Edge (01:16:31) - Brazil's Agricultural and Manufacturing Future (01:17:03) - Canada's Strategic Advantages (01:18:47) -Iran's Potential Resurgence (01:19:56) - Argentina's Reform and Innovation (01:20:48) - Singapore's Strategic Position (01:21:30) - Saudi Arabia's Regional Influence (01:22:11) - Japan's Resilience (01:22:32) - Ukraine's Future as a Garrison State (01:24:21) - Conclusion and NBA Thoughts
May 12, 2025 · 56 min
TikTok Dictators and the End of Hegemony
This week, the cousins speed-run chaos: Houthis hitting Israel, Trump cutting side deals, and Jordan taking heat for not hosting enough sick kids from Gaza. Marko argues that the U.S. is done playing global babysitter, and that might actually be stabilizing. They dig into Israel’s delusions of American loyalty, Burkina Faso’s TikTok dictatorship, and Marko's new theory: “geopolitical tightening.” Jacob’s worried about nukes and future AI plagues, but Marko says multipolarity forces adults to act like, well, adults. Oh, and if President Traoré of Burkina Faso is listening: We accept consulting fees in gold or viral video cameos. Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction and Overview (01:16) - Middle East Tensions: King Abdullah, Houthis, and Trump (06:39) - Israel's Strategic Challenges (11:56) - Jordan's Geopolitical Balancing Act (22:30) - Burkina Faso's Social Media Strategy (29:13) - The President's Social Media Strategy (30:38) - Geopolitical Challenges in Burkina Faso (31:29) - The Role of Gold in Global Politics (34:10) - Global Perception of US Tariffs (36:20) - Hegemonic Stability and Global Order (44:35) - The Impact of Nuclear Weapons on Global Conflict (54:08) - China's Potential as a Global Hegemon (56:34) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts
May 5, 2025 · 1 hr 11 min
A Jew and a Nihilist Talk About The Pope
After a whirlwind of parenting, flights, and failed schedules, the cousins are back with overreactions and the U.S. dollar’s free fall. They riff on Chinese tech breakthroughs... but Marko's still not buying BYD over a German car. Europe? Left for dead, so maybe it’s time to buy? Jacob freaks out over India-Pakistan tensions, while Marko tries to keep us from launching WWIII. They also touch on Trump’s Nobel dreams, Pope predictions, and why Japan just became the spiciest trade negotiator in the room. Plus: rice diplomacy and NBA despair. Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction and Announcements (00:51) - Catching Up After a Busy Week (01:56) - Overreactions Segment Introduction (03:51) - First Overreaction: US Dollar Decline (13:19) - Second Overreaction: China's Tech Advancements (22:55) - Third Overreaction: Europe's Geopolitical Decade (26:01) - Fourth Overreaction: Trump Administration's Peace Dividend (31:43) - Discussion on the Vatican and the Pope (33:15) - Conspiracy Theories and Pope Francis (34:34) - The Future of the Papacy (35:52) - Trump as Pope? (36:55) - The Role of the Vatican (40:06) - Global Politics and Religion (41:50) - Canada and Australia Elections (46:51) - Japan's Trade Stance (52:29) - India-Pakistan Tensions (56:04) - Multipolar World Conflicts (01:03:36) - NBA Playoffs and Predictions
Apr 15, 2025 · 1 hr 13 min
The Tip of a Peninsula with a Bunch of Crazy People
Marko unloads on the myth that austerity worked in Greece, calling out lazy linear thinking, Eurozone nerds with Excel models, and Paul Krugman’s fantasy economics. He explains how Greece’s turnaround was real - but not for the reasons anyone thinks - and why Syriza’s U-turn was political heroism, not betrayal. The conversation pivots to India, where Modi is playing the U.S., China, and Europe against each other with tariff diplomacy. Plus: Ottoman nostalgia, Donbas deadlock, and why even ISIS prefers Toyotas. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (01:17) - Greece's Economic Turnaround (03:00) - Debating Austerity and Economic Policies (07:33) - Greece's Political Landscape and Reforms (12:17) - Comparing Greece and Brexit (30:19) - India's Market and Global Trade Dynamics (37:43) - The Importance of Foreign Competition in Domestic Markets (40:33) - The Impact of Tariffs on the Auto Industry (43:53) - India's Strategy Towards Foreign Auto Companies (45:12) - Russia-Ukraine Conflict Update (53:15) - Trump's Tariff Policies and Their Implications (56:23) - The Future of US Trade Deals (01:03:42) - Concluding Thoughts on Trade and Geopolitics
Apr 8, 2025 · 49 min
Let Them Drink Bleach
Trump's tariff chaos isn’t strategy - it’s a policy car crash in slow motion. Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic walk listeners through how we got here: tariffs based on 6th grade math, no off-ramps, and the U.S. launching a trade war… against everyone. Meanwhile, the rest of the world’s like, cool, we’ll just trade with each other. This isn’t about toaster prices—it’s about the U.S. exporting its own recession. If April 9th isn’t the pivot, buckle up. Come for the analysis; stay for Marko’s tortured basketball metaphor at the end. Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (00:32) - Unexpected Market Concerns (01:43) - Tariffs and Market Reactions (03:33) - Global Trade Dynamics (05:06) - Impact on US Industries (12:39) - Agricultural and Energy Sectors (19:30) - Global Economic Shifts (26:43) - Trump's Acceleration and Structuralism (27:04) - Insane Policymaking and Tariffs (28:17) - The Importance of Due Process (29:13) - Arbitrary Policies and Financial Concerns (33:20) - Market Timing and Optimism (36:37) - Geopolitical Constraints and Future Outlook (44:00 ) - Kevin Durant and Trade Barriers Analogy (49:19) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Apr 4, 2025 · 1 hr 44 min
Riding on the Hog of a Fiscal Orgy
Jacob and Marko convene an emergency episode to discuss Liberation Day. Afterwards, they speak to fellow cousin Matt Gertken about President Trump’s comments that he might serve a third presidential term. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview (01:46) - Discussion on Tariffs and Trade Deficit (02:58) - Reciprocal Tariffs and Economic Reactions (04:56) - Market Reactions and Negotiation Strategies (07:02) - Uncertainty and Global Trade Dynamics (07:45) - Historical Context and Strategic Analysis (10:15) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Scenarios (13:15) - US Fiscal Policy and Global Trade War (30:57) - Potential Outcomes and Congressional Actions (35:20) - Biden's Missed Opportunity with Trade (36:04) - Challenges in US Trade Negotiations (37:44) - Inflation and Tariffs Debate (40:19) - Recession Concerns and Economic Adjustments (41:11) - Tariffs and Their Impact on American Manufacturing (43:09) - China's Military Exercises and Taiwan (44:30) - Debating China's Intentions with Taiwan (52:03) - Part 2 with Matt Gertken (54:48) - Trump's Third Term Speculation (01:06:44) - Reflecting on Beginnings and Career Paths (01:07:52) - The Impact of Leadership on Markets (01:10:52) - Comparing Political Systems: US, China, and Russia (01:13:11) - The Future of American Democracy (01:17:19) - Media Manipulation and Political Spectacle (01:20:50) - The Role of the Supreme Court (01:32:57) - European Politics and the Far Right (01:42:31) - Concluding Thoughts on Geopolitics -- Referenced in the Show: Note from Matt on reference he made in podcast: Cato of Utica is associated with Geo Washington. He committed suicide when Caesar came to power - But it was Cato the ELDER who would retreat to his Sabine farm after various stints in power. https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/cato
Mar 28, 2025 · 59 min
Get Off Our Lawn!
Jacob and Marko make a cousins episode happen even as Jacob is moving into a new office and Marko is on the road – at one point he was literally recording from a bathroom at a hotel in Fort Lauderdale because that is the only place he could get WiFi. What other podcast hosts have that kind of dedication? None! This week the cousins tackle Trump’s latest bevy of tariff threats, discuss the improvement in India/China relations, and close with some lessons to learn from the ongoing protests in Serbia. -- Timestamps: (00:00) – Intro (03:04) - US Tariffs (07:42) - Potential Domestic and Global Reactions to Tariffs (14:17) - Challenges in Renegotiating Trade Deals (28:58) - India-China Border Disputes and Economic Implications (32:17) - India and China: Complementary Economies (44:18) – Serbia/Turkey/Indonesia (53:59) – Over/under
Mar 23, 2025 · 1 hr 57 min
Will the U.S. go to War with Iran?
Jacob and Marko run down the most important issues of the week: Will the U.S. go to war with Iran? Why did President Erdogan arrest his top rival? Is Indonesia helping or hurting itself by courting its military? And is Chinese consumption really happening? From there, they turn to the kind of geopolitical sports analysis that only they can offer, drafting teams of 7 for the top geopolitical sports moments in history. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:00) - Iran (31:00) - Turkey (46:00) – Indonesia (58:00) – China (1:09:00) - Geopolitical Draft
Mar 14, 2025 · 1 hr 8 min
F*cking Around and Finding Out
The inaugural episode of the Geopolitical Cousins podcast sees Marko and Jacob wax philosophical about net assessments, debate where the Trump administration thinks the world is multipolar, and interrogate what the future of Canada, Europe, and inflation look like in a land of all sticks and no carrots. -- (00:00) - Intro (00:50) - Approach and Precepts (11:00) – Net Assessments (18:44) – Multipolarity (34:19) – US Exceptionalism, China, and US Fiscal Policy (42:44) - Canada-US Trade Tensions (47:42) – Inflation and pain thresholds (52:27) – Europe's Awakening and Defense Strategies