
The geography of elections in Britain
I am very pleased in this episode to have Professor Sir John Curtis as my guest. John is widely regarded as one of Britain's leading experts on voting and elections in Britain and we discuss the geography of elections, particularly focusing on Britain. I started by suggesting to John that there are three key aspects to understanding patterns of voting and elections. The first is the geography of the electorate in terms of age, class, sex, ethnicity and religion etc; the second is the geographical structure of electoral areas and the third is the nature of the electoral system itself. John started by noting that the importance of the third of these. Britain, like many other countries, has an electoral system which is structured geographically into number of seats (about 650 in Britain) and candidates stand for election in each seat. But in the Netherlands there is a single national list, with parliamentary seats allocated by the total number of votes with a minimum threshold. Something similar applies in Greece. We then moved on to look at the key factors which influence the pattern of voting in Britain and the ways this has changed over time. John highlights the traditional north south divide in voting in Britain with Labour dominating historically in the old industrial areas of the Midlands and the north and the Conservatives dominating in the more affluent areas of the south. But he notes that this pattern began to break down in Britain around 2010 and subsequently the electoral map has become more complex. Although there is still something of a north south divide in voting for the two major parties, the Conservative party under Boris Johnston made major advances into Labour's so called 'red wall' in the 2019 election. But the Conservatives suffered crushing losses in the 2024 general election. What has happened in Britain since 2016 is that the geography of the Brexit or Leave vote, which was strongest in the so-called 'left behind areas', in the Midlands and the north, and also in many coastal constituencies is now been reflected in the geography of the Reform vote and the Green vote is concentrated in inner city areas with high graduate populations and/or a high muslim population. We also discuss the advantages and disadvantages of a concentrated electoral support in terms of winning seats. This proved important for the Lib Dems in the 2024 general election when they won a substantial number of seats. Geography is an important part of electoral success.