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Forward Guidance

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The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

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Yesterday · 51 min
The Bond Market Is Pricing In Something Worse Than Inflation | Weekly Roundup
Is the AI trade now the only thing standing between the economy and a slowdown? This week, we unpack why bonds are rallying through scalding inflation data and what that says about the current cycle and inflection point in markets. We explore the collapse in October hike odds, why AI backstops favor debt over equity, the Russell's brutal losing streak, where to hide from a correlation shock, and whether the top is in for yields. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:06 Why Are Bonds Ignoring Hot Inflation? 07:53 Has The Fed Ruled Out October? 11:56 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 12:29 Cracks In The AI Growth Engine 16:59 Is A Growth Slowdown Already Coming? 21:11 The Market’s Warning Shot 26:43 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 27:42 Who Gets Saved In AI Bailouts? 32:14 Where Can Investors Find Shelter? 40:41 Do Rate Hikes Still Work? 44:43 Can Bonds Really Offer Safety? 49:06 Iran Escalation And The Midterms FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. http://fidelity.com/crypto RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jxp-TOVcBtYAs5dzvk8GK4k2pgKJE2vf/view?usp=sharing › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11 https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Tuesday · 20 min
Robinhood & Lighter: Why Wall Street Is Moving Onchain
Are onchain markets about to become the default way the world trades? This week, Felix sits down live at DAS Singapore with Robinhood's Johann Kerbrat and Lighter's Vlad Novakovski to unpack the convergence of TradFi and crypto. We explore 24/7 trading, why perps beat CFDs, pre-IPO and commodity perps, the CFTC path for US perps, and Robinhood Chain's first 100 days. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:14 Why Finance Is Moving Onchain 04:17 Can 24/7 Markets Stay Liquid? 06:33 Why Perps Are Going Mainstream 09:59 Bringing Real Assets To Perps 13:10 Can The US Get Perps Right? 15:51 Connecting Traditional & Onchain Finance 18:15 What Robinhood Chain Has Learned FOLLOW GUESTS › Johann – https://x.com/JohannKerbrat › Vlad – https://x.com/vnovakovski FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks › DAS – https://x.com/blockworksDAS RESOURCES › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11 https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
October 4 · 53 min
America’s AI Boom Is Squeezing Main Street | Weekly Roundup
Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy? This week, Aidan Garrib, PGM Global’s head of global macro strategy and research, joins us to explore the widening divide between Wall Street and Main Street. We discuss what’s driving bond yields, housing’s squeeze, the debasement trade, and Europe’s policy trap. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:38 What’s Really Driving Bond Yields? 08:31 AI Booms While Housing Breaks 14:40 Can The Fed Get Yields Down? 19:23 The Fed’s Inflation Balancing Act 22:42 Can Main Street Survive AI’s Boom? 29:04 Why Policymakers Need Stocks Higher 33:04 Do Rate Hikes Actually Stimulate? 38:13 Engineering Buyers For Government Debt 43:00 Europe’s Inflation Or Industry Dilemma 48:23 Why Europe’s Crisis Keeps Getting Worse FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Aidan – https://x.com/AidanGarrib › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
September 25 · 1 hr 1 min
The Bond Market Pain Isn't Over | Weekly Roundup
The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher. This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something and flip the pain trade in bonds. We explore SOFR hike pricing, AI capex and private credit, diesel's hit to Main Street, market concentration, the quiet consumer stock bear market, and where DCP would finally get long. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising 07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates? 11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff? 16:22 What Can’t The Fed Fix? 19:54 Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade 23:13 What Breaks The AI Boom? 26:38 The Generational Bond Bull Market Is Over 29:47 Can Geopolitics Reverse The Selloff? 35:55 How Do You Trade This Market? 39:34 Could 6% Yields Break Markets? 44:21 What Is The Market Hiding? 50:04 The Trade After Something Breaks 53:48 Would You Short The AI Leaders? 58:45 Final Thoughts and Key Trade Levels FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › DCP – https://x.com/Dcpcooks › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn– https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks. –https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_6xkDwJy-Ux1Ko3q8H8LmOfbVNk-tTlI/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for. one ofthe biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
September 18 · 1 hr 12 min
The Fed Is Hiking Into A Growth Slowdown | Weekly Roundup
What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation? This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s economic support, and Europe’s potential Japan-style currency reset. We also discuss the contrarian case for UK equities and Canada’s investment revival. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:34 Did The Fed Turn Too Hawkish? 08:10 The Stimulus Boom Is Fading 13:11 The Return Of Stagflation 21:06 Is The Fed Making A Mistake? 25:45 Can Trump Salvage Midterms? 32:35 Why AI Leaders Want Regulation 35:46 Will Europe Follow Japan? 48:45 The European Debasement Trade 59:28 Is The UK The Best Hedge? 01:05:41 Can Canada Reinvent Its Economy? FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Vincent – https://x.com/VincentDeluard › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/189_grP_F-bFABLdyh84TJA3GzOlLmIQm/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
September 16 · 54 min
The Market Is Mispricing A Correlation Shock | Dean Curnutt
Historically low volatility may be masking a meaningful shift in market risk and the AI trade. This week, Macro Risk Advisors CEO and Alpha Exchange Host Dean Curnutt explains why unusually low stock correlations make tail hedging increasingly compelling. We explore volatility pricing, crowded correlation trades, the Treasury market stress, why AI stocks could suddenly move together, and whether the Fed can calm markets. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 05:08 Why Stock Correlation Collapsed 10:49 What’s Driving The Dispersion Trade? 18:45 Ads (Token 2049, Avalanche Summit) 20:21 Could Volmageddon Happen Again? 27:16 Why Tail Hedging Looks Attractive 35:35 Can Portfolio Insurance Ever Be Free? 39:55 Systematic Or Discretionary Hedging? 42:33 Where Could Market Risk Emerge? 47:27 Can The Fed Calm Markets? 53:22 Closing Thoughts FOLLOW GUEST › X – https://x.com/Dcurnutt › LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/in/dean-curnutt-4060157/ › Macro Risk Advisors – https://www.macroriskadvisors.com/ › Alpha Exchange – https://www.axpod.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
September 11 · 45 min
The Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly Roundup
Bond investors are testing whether policymakers can suppress yields without reigniting the inflation they claim to fear. This week, we unpack the political incentives, stubborn prices, and Fed’s looming credibility test currently testing markets. We explore the massive increase to Treasury buybacks, a possible one-and-done hike, slowing AI-led growth, if debasement trades are due for a pause, and the growing bipartisan opposition toward AI . Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:07 Can Bessent Beat The Bond Market? 06:56 Should The 10-Year Yield Be 5.8%? 11:01 The Inflation-Growth Trap 18:29 Ads (TOKEN2049, Avalanche) 20:05 Will The Fed Hike? 26:08 Is One Credibility Hike Enough? 30:29 Is Economic Growth Peaking? 33:04 Can Debasement Trades Keep Running? 37:42 Is The AI Trade Breaking? 43:22 Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AJwlll7otUeoen1KdtSLuJZWRTyH8o5O/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
September 2 · 44 min
Fiscal Dominance Is Breaking The 60/40 Portfolio | Matt Hougan & Bob Haber
The 60/40 portfolio was built for an old regime, but what replaces bonds when fiscal dominance and currency debasement become structural? This week, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Proficio CIO Bob Haber join the show to explore how hard assets fit into modern portfolio construction. We discuss how Bitcoin and gold, bond-market risk, fiscal dominance, precious metals, and the Fed’s shrinking influence come together to shape a new investing regime. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 04:38 Is The 60/40 Portfolio Broken? 10:23 From QE To Fiscal Dominance 12:45 Is Bitcoin Digital Gold Again? 18:30 Sizing Bitcoin And Gold 23:59 Why Gold Miners Look Attractive 27:56 The Opportunity In Silver 29:53 Will Central Banks Buy Bitcoin? 32:24 Who Buys $12T Of Treasuries? 36:28 Can AI Solve The Debt Problem? 41:01 Are Bond Investors The Patsy? FOLLOW GUESTS › Matt – https://x.com/Matt_Hougan › Bitwise – https://x.com/Bitwise › Bob/Proficio – https://proficiocap.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
August 27 · 53 min
Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly Roundup
The macro establishment is turning on itself as Stan Druckenmiller challenges Scott Bessent’s efforts to suppress long-term Treasury yields. This week, we unpack the Druck-Bessent clash and what it reveals about fiscal policy, Fed independence, and market intervention. We also preview Warsh's Jackson Hole speech this week, potential bond-market manipulation, AI bubble risks, and whether the debasement trade is here to stay. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:43 Druckenmiller Calls Out Bessent 05:51 Is Druck Actually Helping Bessent? 08:42 Druck’s AI-Written Op-Ed 13:50 Treasury Escalates Bond Buybacks? 16:05 Why Yield Suppression Fuels Debasement 19:52 Ads (TOKEN2049, DAS Asia, Avalanche Summit) 21:28 Jackson Hole And Warsh’s Dilemma 27:20 America’s Term-Premium Problem 30:43 Anthropic And The AI Bubble 37:48 AI Repeats Crypto’s 2021 Playbook 42:48 Will The Government Bail Out AI? 47:03 The Debasement Endgame FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zmm4uy9nhYi3TrTaq20oyFD61Uq8anYg/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
August 20 · 53 min
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
Treasury is quietly taking control of financial conditions and the market implications could trigger a new wave in the debasement trade. This week, Felix and Quinn unpack Treasury’s accelerating intervention in long-term yields and why it could reignite the rotation into hard assets as policymakers suppress yields and tolerate inflation. We explore inflation, dollar weakness, AI financing, oil's ongoing supply shock, and where capital likely rotates next. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:17 Treasury Buybacks Change The Game 12:53 Is This Fiscal Operation Twist? 19:17 Where Does The Debasement Trade Go? 24:18 How Long Can They Goose Markets? 29:08 Can The Fed Stay Hawkish? 33:39 When Should You Buy Inflation Protection? 37:58 Is Debt Monetization Next? 41:25 Where Should Investors Hide? 46:12 What Comes After The AI Boom? 51:58 Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dCi1wentet0JRlYXC_OX0s2QIm1qXvIW/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
August 12 · 46 min
The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale
Running the economy hot may keep growth alive, but it creates a dangerous balancing act for markets. Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins us to explain why today’s reflationary regime demands a different investing playbook. We also discuss rising neutral rates, bond-market pressure, Fed credibility, capital scarcity, and systematic portfolio risk management. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:00 The Risk-On Reflation Regime 06:29 Why This Bull Market Feels Harder 14:54 The Fed Risks The Bond Market 20:57 Inside The Fed’s Policy Tightrope 29:49 Can Policymakers Stick The Landing? 37:10 Why Risk Management Beats Buy-And-Hold 43:29 Making Institutional Tools Accessible FOLLOW DARIUS › X/Twitter – https://x.com/DariusDale42 › 42 Macro – https://42macro.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join. usat Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
August 7 · 59 min
Washington Is Suppressing Volatility To Keep The AI Boom Alive | Weekly Roundup
Washington is shifting from monetary management toward state-directed capitalism and the consequences could reshape where capital flows next. This week, Tyler joins us for his final roundup before heading to Shoten Capital, unpacking the shift toward state-directed growth and volatility suppression. We explore Fed-Treasury coordination, the AI capex boom, energy abundance, and whether Bitcoin is approaching a turning point. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 00:58 Tyler's Farewell 04:34 Markets Enter A New Regime 06:22 Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility 15:11 Nuclear Power Supercycle? 20:18 Backstopping The Global Short Vol Trade 24:50 Are Policy Band-Aids Creating Bigger Risks? 28:48 Gold Sniffs Out The Policy Pivot 33:35 The AI Capex Boom Becomes Statecraft 40:42 Can Markets Survive The Midterms? 44:19 Regulation Builds The AI Moat 46:01 Bitcoin Enters A Cleansing Phase 50:31 How Narratives Drive Capital Flows 55:34 Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/16t3aXIjnR07MLnyb7RGarzT0oaI7dOFH/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
August 5 · 32 min
The Portfolio Built To Survive Every Crash | Jared Dillian
Markets are relearning that durable wealth comes from disciplined risk management, not chasing momentum or relying on central bank intervention. This week, we're joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap and author of The Awesome Portfolio, to discuss why markets may be entering a new regime where risk management matters more than maximizing returns. We explore Warsh's Fed strategy, the case for a steeper yield curve, why the AI trade may be masking economic weakness, how sentiment shifts after crowded trades unwind, and why gold and diversified portfolios could be poised for a comeback. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:01 The Awesome Portfolio 04:42 Why Investors Misunderstand Risk 11:15 Warsh’s Intentional Policy Shift 14:17 The Yield Curve Meets Weak Data 17:32 Markets To Do The Heavy Lifting 20:00 Treasury Enters The Currency Fight 22:58 The Bear Market’s Starting Gun 27:57 Defensive Stocks, Oil And Gold FOLLOW JARED › X/Twitter – https://x.com/dailydirtnap › Pre-Order The Awesome Portfolio –https://a.co/d/01yslEpJ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
August 3 · 49 min
The AI Unwind And Warsh's Long-End Gamble | Weekly Roundup
AI’s leverage-fueled boom is colliding with a Fed determined to tighten conditions without touching short-term rates. This week, we dig into the Situational Awareness liquidation, the Fed meeting, and whether markets have reached a genuine growth inflection. We unpack the ongoing AI unwind, Warsh’s long-end strategy, the Fed's credibility shock, and the administration’s market choreography. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:45 Situational Awareness Liquidation 04:49 Why Leverage Fueled The Boom 07:51 Price Drives The Narrative 12:42 Did Markets Misread Warsh? 21:08 Why The Long End Matters 25:42 Warsh’s Communication Problem 29:17 What Comes At Jackson Hole? 33:14 Growth Hits An Inflection 38:27 Markets Vs Midterm Politics 45:46 August Slowdown Risks FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JJcuttegsr2dLgKuasjv7B5u5tPe-OAu/view?usp=drive_link EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
July 22 · 43 min
AI Efficiency Is Repricing The Compute Market | Steve Hou
AI’s next phase hinges on a paradox: falling costs could threaten today’s winners while unlocking far greater demand. Steve Hou, head of research at Silicon Data and former Bloomberg strategist, joins us to examine the changing economics of AI compute. We discuss token efficiency, model routing, GPU pricing, memory bottlenecks, and when enterprise adoption may finally deliver measurable returns. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:01 Why AI Compute Needs Hedging 06:55 What The Token Index Really Shows 14:04 Token Maxing Meets Efficiency 18:35 Who Captures AI’s Value? 22:12 Old GPUs Reveal Surging Demand 27:10 GPU Markets Keep Tightening 32:03 The Memory Bottleneck 37:07 AI’s Next Phase FOLLOW STEVE › X/Twitter – https://x.com/stevehou › Silicon Data – https://www.silicondata.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
July 17 · 53 min
The AI Unwind Is Forcing A Historic Market Rotation | Weekly Roundup
The market’s most crowded trade is beginning to crack, but where the fallout spreads next remains unclear. This week, we dig into the violent momentum unwind and mounting pressure across the AI trade. We explore the damage of leveraged ETFs, Korea’s retail reckoning, a potential value revival, renewed Iran oil risks, and why Quinn is bullish real estate in the right places. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:01 The Momentum Trade Unravels 06:22 Leveraged ETFs Are Breaking Markets 12:07 Has The AI Boom Hit Its Limits? 16:05 Cheap Models Threatening The AI Trade 19:52 Hyperscalers Facing A Credit Squeeze 23:27 The Fed’s Forward Guidance Failure 29:38 Global Carry Trade Risk? 35:29 Can Value Finally Win? 40:44 Iran Reignites Oil Risk 48:00 Housing Policy Vs Property Rights FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/17yRksHxeO19PfW6MOCrzT_OpEwicKuog/view?usp=drive_link EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
July 8 · 46 min
Think Like Everyone Else, Lose Like Everyone Else | Brent Donnelly
Markets reward independent thinking, but only if you can avoid the traps that come with it. This week, Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets and author of Trade Outside the Box, joins us to discuss how psychology, risk management, and market narratives shape successful trading. We explore poker's lessons for traders, AI's role in markets, Kevin Warsh's Fed, the dollar and yen, and why predicting people may matter more than predicting macro. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:00 Trading Outside The Box 06:38 Trading Psychology And Risk 12:46 AI As A Trading Tool 19:33 How LLMs Shape Markets 25:19 Kevin Warsh And The New Fed 33:37 The Yen Intervention Playbook 41:40 Is Government Debt Sustainable? 43:00 Has Bitcoin Lost Its Narrative? FOLLOW BRENT › X/Twitter – https://x.com/donnelly_brent › Spectra Markets – https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/ › Trade Outside The Box – https://a.co/d/0i4r9Udd FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
July 3 · 46 min
The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup
Markets can look strongest just before their underlying assumptions begin to crack. This week, we examine whether the AI-led growth narrative is beginning to unravel as positioning, macro data, and market structure all shift at once. We discuss the AI momentum unwind, yen intervention, NFP & labor market weakness, Fed policy, gold, Bitcoin, and what we think is the next major trade. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:40 AI Momentum Starts To Crack 07:14 What Triggered The Selloff? 10:21 Is The AI Boom Peaking? 12:24 Why Gold Still Looks Attractive 14:19 Breaking Down The Jobs Report 18:06 Could Inflation Stay Sticky? 24:56 Is The Market Misreading The Fed? 27:54 How We're Trading This 32:47 Is Bitcoin Turning? 38:42 Why Gold Beats Tech 40:36 The Next Phase Of Crypto 44:17 July 4th And The World Cup FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/14q53P0qQcFvyvvSBgVSZ-jM_TZU9HEyP/view?usp=drive_link EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
June 29 · 45 min
How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan
Markets may be entering a fundamentally different monetary regime under Kevin Warsh. This week, Bob Sheehan of Lighthouse Macro joins to explain why the Fed's evolving framework could reshape how investors interpret policy, economic data, and market pricing. We discuss the end of the Fed put, rising rate volatility, Treasury curve dynamics, fiscal pressures, and why data-driven macro matters more than ever. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:04 Bob's Macro Background 09:21 Data-Driven Macro 13:13 The Fed Put Is Dead 16:46 Less Guidance, More Volatility 21:13 Why Data Matters Even More 25:35 The Two Trades In Rates 33:16 Balance Sheet Games 37:42 The Fiscal Doom Loop 43:32 Final Thoughts FOLLOW BOB › X/Twitter – https://x.com/LHMacro › Research – https://lighthousemacro.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
June 26 · 59 min
Is The Fed Panic Already Fading? | Weekly Roundup
The Fed scare that dominated markets may already be losing momentum. Now investors are asking what comes next as the AI trade, inflation picture, and market leadership evolve. This week, we break down why the Fed may be nearing the end of its hiking cycle, how AI investment is reshaping markets, and where capital is rotating next. We also discuss peak inflation, hyperscaler capex, market dispersion, active management, and why new leaders could replace the old winners. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:16 FIFA World Cup 04:24 Peak Hawkishness Fading 09:53 Oil, Gasoline, And Disinflation 12:28 Why Inflation Stays Sticky 14:22 Monetary Policy vs AI CapEx 19:43 Warsh: Balance Sheet & Rates 25:22 Hyperscalers Hit The CapEx Wall 29:38 Passive Investing Cracking? 33:37 Market Leadership Rotating 42:07 The Productive Capital Cycle? 44:24 MicroStrategy Hits Reality 50:09 Bitcoin, AI, And Power 55:26 Do Things IRL FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cLd9ck8EM77hJz9ZlnB_5VKd8ai1Sb2d/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

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