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Artwork for Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens
Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens · April 15 · 26 min

UFC Winnipeg: Burns vs Malott | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 38

UFC heads to Winnipeg this week for a lean card — but before diving into the fights, Rob pulls back the curtain on how the Fighting With Numbers model actually works. What is xR%? How do the tiers work? What makes something a Live Dog versus a stay-away? All of that gets answered before breaking down the fights on the card, including a main event where the model agrees with the direction but maybe not the price. Short card, one strong play, and a model explainer worth tuning in for whether you're a first-time listener or a longtime follower. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and get full model data and written breakdowns every week at FightNumbers.Substack.com. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC Winnipeg Preview 02:15 Understanding the Model Behind the Predictions 04:46 Analyzing Fighter Metrics and Performance 07:29 Exploring the Tier System for Betting 16:41 Kyler Phillips vs Charles Jourdain 20:47 Evaluating the Main Event: Burns vs. Malott 24:40 Final Thoughts and Betting Strategies Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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show notes

UFC heads to Winnipeg this week for a lean card — but before diving into the fights, Rob pulls back the curtain on how the Fighting With Numbers model actually works. What is xR%? How do the tiers work? What makes something a Live Dog versus a stay-away? All of that gets answered before breaking down the fights on the card, including a main event where the model agrees with the direction but maybe not the price. Short card, one strong play, and a model explainer worth tuning in for whether you're a first-time listener or a longtime follower.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and get full model data and written breakdowns every week at FightNumbers.Substack.com.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC Winnipeg Preview

02:15 Understanding the Model Behind the Predictions

04:46 Analyzing Fighter Metrics and Performance

07:29 Exploring the Tier System for Betting

16:41 Kyler Phillips vs Charles Jourdain

20:47 Evaluating the Main Event: Burns vs. Malott

24:40 Final Thoughts and Betting Strategies


Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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