Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

Rob Moreno

Fighting With Numbers is the UFC betting podcast where analytics meet fight talk.
Hosted by Rob Moreno of VSiN's First Strike, each episode breaks down upcoming cards through model grades, matchup data, and betting angles that actually matter. No hype, no clickbait — just data-driven analysis that helps you read the lines, not the headlines. Whether you’re chasing sharp value, tracking fighter trends, or just love hearing the story behind the stats, this show gives you the edge every fight week.
New episodes drop every week — where numbers tell the story inside the Octagon.

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59 episodes
Updated Tuesday

Episodes59

Newest first

Tuesday · 19 min
Gamrot vs Salkilld + One More Pack Rip | UFC Vegas 120 Breakdown | FWN Ep. 52
The thinnest data card of the year lands at the APEX — but the model still finds one clear play in the main event, walks through a co-main worth avoiding, and rips one more pack before next week's fuller slate finally arrives.
July 28 · 15 min
Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez | UFC Belgrade Breakdown
UFC Belgrade brings a main event with one of the stranger backstories in recent memory — Daniel Rodriguez steps into the cage three months after being released from a Mexican prison, and the model has thoughts on what that means for fight night. Rob breaks down both fights, hunts for props on a chalk-heavy card, and rips another pack.
July 21 · 20 min
Ankalaev vs Guskov + Pack Rip Vol. 2 | UFC Abu Dhabi Betting Preview | FWN Ep. 50
The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for another data-thin early morning card — Rob breaks down two fights through the model, finds one locked-in Tier 1 play, and goes prop hunting on a main event where the moneyline is completely unplayable. Plus pack rip volume two.
July 14 · 19 min
Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman + Live Card Rip | UFC Oklahoma City Breakdown | FWN Ep. 49
A data-thin card in Oklahoma City gives the model two interesting spots — and Rob breaks them both down before doing something new this week: ripping open a UFC card pack live on the pod.
July 7 · 23 min
McGregor is Back | UFC 329 Model Breakdown | FWN Ep. 48
Conor McGregor returns to the octagon after five years away for a rematch 13 years in the making against Max Holloway — and Rob breaks down the fights on a stacked UFC 329 card.
June 24 · 16 min
Fiziev vs Torres | UFC Baku Model Predictions | FWN Ep. 47
The UFC heads to Baku with an international card before the July 4th break — and Rob finds plays on a couple fights.
June 17 · 23 min
UFC Vegas 119: Kape vs Horiguchi 2 | FWN Ep. 46
The UFC returns to the APEX for Vegas 119 with a flyweight title eliminator headlining the card — and Rob breaks down three fights through the model, finds one clear bet on a lean card, and explores a prop angle on the main event worth watching.
June 10 · 25 min
UFC Freedom 250 | White House Bets | FWN Ep. 45
The UFC sets up on the White House lawn for one of the most unique events in company history — two title fights, an outdoor octagon, and history on the line as Alex Pereira chases an unprecedented third divisional title. Rob breaks down the card through the model, finds a T1 Live Dog on the undercard, and makes one bet from the heart.
June 2 · 16 min
UFC Vegas 118: Muhammad vs Bonfim | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 44
UFC Vegas 118 lands at the APEX this week with a former welterweight champion looking to stop the bleeding against a rising contender riding serious momentum. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC Vegas
May 26 · 11 min
UFC Macau: Song vs Figueiredo | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 43
The UFC is back from a week off and so is Fighting With Numbers. This week the promotion heads to Macau for an early morning card — 4AM Eastern for those of us stateside. Rob breaks down two fights through the model, including a light heavyweight matchup where the numbers are lopsided enough to hunt props over the moneyline, and a main event featuring a former two-time flyweight champion whose decline is written all over the data. Short pod, clear model sides, and a prop market worth paying atte
May 13 · 23 min
UFC Vegas 117: Allen vs Costa | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 42
UFC Vegas 117 brings a lean APEX card to close out the stretch before the UFC takes a week off — and Fighting With Numbers marks one year of the podcast. Rob breaks down three fights through the model. Plus — Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano is happening this weekend and yes, we're going to talk about it.If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at
May 6 · 24 min
UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 41
UFC 328 is headlined by a middleweight title fight with some genuine bad blood behind it — Khamzat Chimaev defends his belt against Sean Strickland, who gets his third shot at middleweight gold. Rob breaks down four fights on the card through the model.Plus a full performance update on the season — where the tiers stand, where the betting record sits, and an honest look at the regression that's arrived over the last few weeks. The process holds. Let's get into it.If you're enjoying the show, mak
April 29 · 19 min
UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs Prates | Bets & Predictions | FWN Ep. 40
The UFC heads to Perth, Australia this week for a card that has most of us in the States setting a 1AM alarm. Rob breaks down three fights through the model — including a main event featuring a former welterweight champion looking to remind everyone who he is, a veteran grappler on a skid facing a tough road back, and a flyweight matchup where the model finds something the odds aren't reflecting. Plus — big news this week. FightingWithNumbers.com is officially live. The full site is up and runni
April 22 · 17 min
UFC Vegas 116: Sterling vs Zalal | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 39
UFC Vegas 116 is headlined by former bantamweight champion, Aljamain Sterling, set to face one of the hottest fighters in the featherweight division right now in Youssef Zalal. Rob breaks down a few fights on the card through the model — including a co-main where the edge is clear but the price may not be. Sometimes the most disciplined move is knowing when not to bet, and this week the model is making that case loud and clear. Plus a big update on the Fighting With Numbers web app.If you're enj
April 15 · 26 min
UFC Winnipeg: Burns vs Malott | Betting Predictions | FWN Ep. 38
UFC heads to Winnipeg this week for a lean card — but before diving into the fights, Rob pulls back the curtain on how the Fighting With Numbers model actually works. What is xR%? How do the tiers work? What makes something a Live Dog versus a stay-away? All of that gets answered before breaking down the fights on the card, including a main event where the model agrees with the direction but maybe not the price. Short card, one strong play, and a model explainer worth tuning in for whether you'r
April 8 · 21 min
UFC 327: Prochazka vs Ulberg | Betting Breakdown | Fighting With Numbers Ep. 37
Rob Moreno provides an in-depth analysis of UFC 327, including fight predictions, betting insights, and fighter breakdowns. He shares his modeling process, key fight data, and betting strategies for this weeks event.Follow Rob on all social media platforms @TheRobbeoSubstack: FightNumbers.Substack.comInterested in the Web App version of Fighting With Numbers? Feel free to drop me a line and I'd be happy to share!Chapters00:00 Introduction and Overview of UFC 32702:34 Gastelum vs Luque06:34 Tatia
April 1 · 22 min
UFC Vegas 115: Moicano vs Duncan | Betting Predictions | Fighting With Numbers Ep. 36
Rob Moreno discusses the UFC Seattle recap, the controversy around judging, and provides a preview of UFC Vegas 115. He analyzes three upcoming fights, highlighting key statistics and betting insights.Follow Rob on X:@TheRobbeoAnd hit the substack!Fight Numbers SubstackFirst Strike on YTFighting With Numbers on YTChapters00:00 UFC Seattle Recap and Judging Controversy12:28 Fight Analysis: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabitha Ricci20:28 Fight Analysis: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan
March 25 · 22 min
UFC Seattle: Adesanya vs Pyfer | Betting Predictions | Fighting With Numbers Ep. 35
The UFC heads to Seattle this week and the main event has legacy written all over it. Israel Adesanya — former champion, three-fight losing streak — steps in against a hungry Joe Pyfer who smells an opportunity. Rob breaks down four fights through the model, including a co-main event rematch five years in the making between Alexa Grasso and Maycee Barber, a stay-away spot that the model loves but the bankroll won't touch, and a line movement story that flips one fight completely on its head. The
March 18 · 20 min
Evloev vs Murphy Picks & Preview | UFC London Breakdown | Fighting With Numbers Ep. 34
The UFC heads to London this week for a card headlined by one of the most unique matchups of the year — undefeated vs undefeated as Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy collide for what could be a number one contender spot at featherweight. Rob breaks down the model numbers on a few key fights, including a puzzle in Michael Page vs Sam Patterson and a main card opener where the value is hiding in the method, not the moneyline. Plus, is there an app in our future? Find the edges. Protect the bankroll.
March 11 · 17 min
UFC Vegas 114 Betting Picks & Predictions: Emmett vs Vallejos | Fighting With Numbers Ep. 33
The model is back this week with three confident plays heading into UFC Vegas 114. Rob breaks down the numbers on four fights — a rematch with a clear blueprint, two aging middleweights swinging for the fences, a sneaky-good co-main that deserves more attention, and a main event where the data says one thing and the odds say something else entirely. Official model bets: Piera Rodriguez, Eryk Anders (live dog), and Gillian Robertson. Plus, why laying -590 on anyone is almost always a mistake — an