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Excess Returns

Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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  • S1 · E483
    September 12 · 1 hr

    We Asked Fidelity's Ex-President What Made Peter Lynch Great — and Where Private Credit Risk Hides

    Former Fidelity president and MFS chairman Bob Pozen joins Excess Returns to discuss retirement investing, the risks in private credit, and why he favors a 90% stock and 10% cash portfolio for investors who can cover their living expenses without selling stocks. Drawing on decades in asset management, he shares lessons from Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett, explains why index funds are difficult to beat, and challenges conventional thinking about bonds, Social Security, and corporate earnings reporting. Bob Pozen's website https://www.bobpozen.com Follow Bob Pozen on Twitter https://x.com/Pozen Research discussed: Consequences of Mandatory Quarterly Reporting: The U.K. Experience https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2817120 Rating Without Market Discipline https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6859158 Giving Life to Private (Rated) Credit https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6857958 Topics covered: What investors misunderstand about Peter Lynch and how fund liquidity shaped his approach versus Warren Buffett's. Lessons from leading Fidelity and rebuilding investor trust at MFS after its trading scandal. Why fees, fund size, and market efficiency make large-cap index funds difficult to beat. Private equity in 401(k) plans, liquidity constraints, and the problem with instant valuation markups. How private credit ratings and affiliated investments can obscure risks on insurance company balance sheets. Pozen's proposals for Social Security reform and the consequences of postponing difficult decisions. How automatic IRA enrollment could expand retirement savings access for workers without employer plans. Why Pozen favors a 90/10 portfolio for certain investors and how spending needs and inheritance goals affect allocation. Why quarterly financial reporting and quarterly earnings guidance deserve different treatment. The behavioral cost of chasing rallies and selling downturns, plus Pozen's work on AI and personal productivity. Timestamps: 00:00 Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and staying the course 05:27 Leading Fidelity and keeping stock funds invested 11:03 Rebuilding trust at MFS after the trading scandal 16:01 Why active managers struggle to beat index funds 20:03 Private equity in 401(k)s and valuation concerns 24:45 Private credit ratings and insurance company risks 29:33 Regulatory gaps and affiliated insurance investments 35:51 Social Security reform and the cost of waiting 40:00 Automatic IRAs for workers without retirement plans 44:09 The case for 90% stocks and 10% cash 50:05 Why quarterly financial reporting matters 55:00 The problem with precise quarterly earnings guidance 59:00 Avoiding emotional market timing and AI productivity tools Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E482
    September 10 · 1 hr 5 min

    Everyone Hates Bonds. Why Two Bond Managers Say You're Hating the Wrong Ones

    John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos of Janus Henderson join Matt Zeigler to explain why persistent inflation and higher interest rates call for a different approach to bond investing. They explore short-duration bonds, AAA CLOs, mortgage-backed securities and how investors can rethink the fixed income allocation in a 60/40 portfolio. The conversation covers why traditional bond benchmarks may deliver too much interest rate risk for their yield, how ETFs expand access to securitized credit, and why the AI buildout could add to inflation rather than solve it. High-Conviction Views: The time for short-duration bonds https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/article/high-conviction-views-the-time-for-short-duration-bonds/ Janus Henderson Investors https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/ Topics covered: Why deglobalization, fiscal spending and labor constraints could keep inflation and interest rates elevated How the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index concentrates interest rate risk and leaves out large parts of the bond market How AAA CLOs work, why their coupons float, and why they are different from cash Why tight corporate credit spreads may offer insufficient compensation for the risks investors take The three jobs of fixed income: safety, income and insurance How duration determines whether rising rates can wipe out a bond portfolio's income Why bond ETF discounts can reflect price discovery when underlying bonds are not trading How Treasury borrowing and AI hyperscaler debt issuance affect bond supply and relative value Why AI capital spending, electricity demand, labor shortages and wealth effects can create inflation How to rebuild the bond allocation around securitized credit, agency mortgages and the risks in your equity portfolio Timestamps: 00:00 Rethinking bonds after years of disappointing returns 04:28 Why the forces behind the bond bull market have changed 10:09 The hidden interest rate risk in the Aggregate Bond Index 14:53 AAA CLO ETFs: Floating income, structure and drawdown risk 20:44 Treasury fiscal risk and tight corporate credit spreads 26:16 Moving beyond set-and-forget bond funds 30:45 How duration can overwhelm your bond yield 36:27 Bond ETF liquidity and price discovery during stress 41:11 Treasury borrowing, AI debt and securitized bond supply 46:00 How hyperscaler borrowing can create credit market dislocations 50:29 Four reasons AI could increase inflation 55:56 Rebuilding the 40% bond allocation in a 60/40 portfolio 01:02:00 Municipal bonds, recession protection and balancing equity risk Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E481
    September 8 · 56 min

    All-In on the S&P 500 Worked for 18 Years | Jared Dillian on Why It's Still Wrong

    Jared Dillian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss The Awesome Portfolio, his approach to asset allocation built around 20% each in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate. They explore how diversification, annual rebalancing, and managing volatility can help investors reduce financial stress and build a portfolio they can stick with through bear markets. Jared explains his "life hedge" concept, challenges conventional wisdom about stock market drawdowns, and shares how losing half his net worth during the financial crisis shaped his investing philosophy. Buy The Awesome Portfolio Book https://amzn.to/3Tf3of7 Topics covered: Why Jared questions putting your entire life savings in the S&P 500 How the Awesome Portfolio differs from Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio Including home equity when measuring your overall asset allocation Why volatility and frequent portfolio checking can lead to costly decisions The life hedge: protecting against your job and investments declining together Why Jared disagrees with Charlie Munger about tolerating large drawdowns Index concentration, changing correlations, and the limits of diversification The portfolio's historical backtests, including its losses in 2008 and 2022 Annual rebalancing, cash reserves, inflation protection, and cryptocurrency Managing FOMO and taking practical steps toward a less stressful retirement portfolio Timestamps: 00:00 Jared Dillian's case against an all-stock portfolio 06:33 The five equal allocations in the Awesome Portfolio 11:07 Why "never sell" can become a behavioral trap 15:26 The life hedge: when your paycheck and portfolio fall together 20:38 Risk-adjusted returns and S&P 500 concentration 24:49 Why rising interest rates hurt diversification in 2022 28:51 Backtested losses in 2008 and 2022 34:26 Combining home equity, retirement accounts, and savings 38:58 Cryptocurrency, portfolio distractions, and FOMO 44:31 The Death of Equities and lessons from past crashes 48:44 How diversification could have changed Jared's financial crisis 53:41 First steps toward reducing portfolio risk before retirement Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • September 6 · 55 min

    Nvidia Is Betting on Its Customers. Gen Z Is Betting on Sports. Will It All End the Same Way?

    Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler on Click Beta to explore how sports betting, leveraged ETFs and speculative behavior are blurring the line between gambling and investing. They also examine AI circular financing, hyperscaler cash flow and corporate disclosure, asking what investors might be missing beneath headline earnings. The conversation closes with baseball, music fandom and the challenge of learning from imperfect role models. Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts Topics covered: Why sports betting is becoming a financial planning issue for Gen Z and wealthy families How overconfidence and confusion between skill and luck encourage speculative behavior Why rapid market recoveries may reinforce risk-taking instead of teaching caution How recurring gambling losses can quietly undermine savings and wealth accumulation The risks of placing gambling products alongside investments in brokerage apps Leveraged ETF innovation, hourly resets and competing approaches to investor protection AI circular financing, payment terms, leases and opaque special purpose vehicles How one-time investment gains can distort headline earnings and future growth comparisons Why less frequent corporate reporting could favor investors with greater resources Baseball, emo music, Nirvana merchandise and what makes a meaningful role model Timestamps: 00:00 Sports betting, ETFs and the gambling economy 05:24 Financial planning after crypto and gambling wins 10:57 Why slow gambling losses can be harder to recognize 16:55 Betting inside brokerage apps and regulatory backlash 21:03 Gambling budgets and the next wave of leveraged ETFs 25:04 AI financial shenanigans and hyperscaler cash flow 29:25 Who benefits from less corporate disclosure? 34:24 Discovering new passions in adulthood: Westerns and baseball 38:30 Hot Topic, Nirvana sweatpants and cultural gatekeeping 43:17 Can band merchandise introduce a new generation to music? 47:26 Keith Morris and the search for meaningful role models 51:34 Learning from imperfect people without idolizing them Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E480
    September 3 · 1 hr

    Bearish Into November. Room to Run After: Why Dan Niles Is Watching Hyperscaler Credit Default Swaps

    Dan Niles joins Excess Returns to explain why he believes AI is a genuine industrial revolution and a bubble at the same time, with significant opportunity still ahead but growing risks in semiconductors, software, AI CapEx and credit markets. We discuss NVIDIA, OpenAI, Anthropic, China’s semiconductor push, data center politics, AI debt issuance, Fed policy and the downside protection framework Dan uses to navigate technology cycles. Dan Niles on X https://x.com/DanielTNiles Niles Investment Management https://www.nilesinvestmentmanagement.com Topics covered: Why AI can be both a transformational technology and an investment bubble The AI metrics Dan watches: token pricing, token growth, cloud revenue and operating margins What the Situational Awareness unwind showed about leverage, forced selling and semiconductor volatility Why hyperscaler AI revenue can accelerate even as free cash flow deteriorates How data center opposition, electricity constraints and politics could slow the AI buildout Where value may accrue across the AI stack and why Anthropic and Google could pressure OpenAI Why China’s memory chip expansion could bring semiconductor cyclicality back faster than investors expect How AI is reshaping software, including security, systems of record, gaming and usage-based pricing Why the shift from free cash flow to debt financing matters for AI CapEx, Treasury yields and credit markets Dan’s long-short investment process, Fed outlook, market risk framework and emphasis on downside protection Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 04:00 The signals Dan watches to know when the AI bubble is peaking 09:12 AI ROI, hyperscaler profits and the problem with negative free cash flow 14:19 Why data center politics could become a major risk to AI growth 21:28 Why semiconductors are still cyclical and China could change the supply picture 25:47 Why smart companies still get bubbles wrong and agentic AI could extend the cycle 30:43 Is software the next major casualty of AI disruption? 35:04 Why video games may be one of software’s safer AI categories 39:23 Can markets absorb the surge in AI debt and equity issuance? 45:28 Dan Niles’ long-short investment process and approach to downside protection 50:45 Why Dan thinks the Fed could raise rates in September 56:38 Why buy-and-hold can fail and downside protection matters Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • September 3 · 51 min

    The Fed Credibility Narrative Has Turned | Ben Hunt on AI, the Consumer and Financial Repression

    Ben Hunt joins Matt Zeigler to explain why damaged Fed and Treasury credibility could matter just as four major risks converge across private credit, AI financing, oil and the consumer. They discuss financial repression, rising long-term rates, shadow banking and insurance risk, the AI CapEx growth engine, and why Hunt believes gold may benefit if policymakers keep trying to suppress the price of money. Subscribe on Spotify⁠ ⁠Subscribe on Apple Topics covered Why credibility is a teacup and why policy reputation is difficult to repair once it breaks How the Fed's July rate decision changed the market narrative around inflation credibility The Four Horsemen: insurance and shadow banking losses, capital crowding out, the Iran war and oil inflation, and a stretched consumer Why insurer-funded private credit could become a systemic risk if fraud and losses reach major institutions How government borrowing and AI data center financing could push long-term interest rates higher Why fading fiscal stimulus, depleted savings and higher energy costs leave the consumer vulnerable What financial repression means and how the Fed and Treasury could try to cap rates and prevent major losses Why AI investment may be the key source of US economic growth if consumer activity stalls How Perscient tracks narrative regimes, virality and shifts in common knowledge across markets Why gold can act as an inverse measure of trust in central banks and how Ben is positioning around the risks Timestamps 00:00 Intro: Credibility is a Teacup 04:00 How the July Fed decision damaged inflation credibility 08:21 The Four Horsemen that could threaten the financial system 14:00 Oil inflation, the Iran war and a stretched consumer 18:39 What financial repression means 23:20 How the Fed and Treasury could try to prevent a systemic crisis 28:21 Why AI CapEx may be the only major source of GDP growth 35:00 When lost Fed credibility became a confirmed market narrative 39:34 Narrative stock versus flow and how bursts can move prices 44:00 The return of bearish AI CapEx narratives 48:09 Why private credit may be easier to can-kick than the 2008 crisis Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • August 31 · 1 hr 2 min

    Sticky Inflation. Cheap Volatility. A Less Predictable Fed. Why Aren’t Markets More Worried?

    This month on Last Call, Kevin Muir, Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt and Brent Kochuba break down the market through four lenses: macro, inflation data, narrative and options positioning. They examine whether midterm election volatility is underpriced, why inflation may be more demand-driven and persistent than headline data suggests, how the Fed's credibility has shifted under Kevin Warsh, and why options markets still look remarkably complacent. Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠ Topics covered Why ending Fed forward guidance could create more uncertainty around interest rate decisions Kevin Muir's case that midterm election volatility is unusually cheap Why seasonal volatility, low implied correlation and election risk may favor owning protection Aahan Menon on inflation breadth and why 70 to 80 percent of PCE components are above the Fed's 2 percent target Why demand-driven inflation may be stickier than supply-driven inflation How oil shocks can feed into core inflation and increase pressure on the Fed to hike Ben Hunt on the sudden collapse in the Fed credibility narrative and why gold has responded The four risks facing the Fed and Treasury: oil, fading fiscal stimulus, insurance and private credit stress, and the long end of the Treasury curve Brent Kochuba on why implied volatility and put positioning show a market with very little fear Nvidia options positioning, potential resistance near 250 to 275, and what dealer gamma says about the stock Stanley Druckenmiller's AI-written Wall Street Journal op-ed and what AI-assisted writing means for investment thinking Timestamps 00:00 Midterms, inflation, Fed credibility and options complacency 07:45 Kevin Muir on why midterm volatility may be underpriced 11:55 Why this midterm could be more volatile than the options market expects 16:36 Cheap volatility and how election risk could get repriced 20:39 Inflation breadth and why the headline numbers miss the bigger problem 25:43 Why cooling inflation data may hide persistent demand-driven pressure 33:31 Ben Hunt on why the Fed credibility narrative suddenly reversed 40:01 Four risks the Fed and Treasury cannot afford to ignore 44:43 What the options market says after Jackson Hole 49:10 Why Fed events can become an expensive options tax 53:14 Why falling volatility could help stocks push toward new highs 57:34 Druckenmiller, AI-written investment commentary and authenticity 01:01:53 Why writing is part of thinking in an AI world Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E479
    August 29 · 1 hr 4 min

    The Profits Come Now. The Costs Come Later. Kevin Muir on Whether AI Earnings Are the Bubble

    Kevin Muir of The MacroTourist joins Matt Zeigler to break down the bond market, Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks, the Treasury General Account, AI-driven earnings growth, leveraged ETF risk, gold and the U.S.-Canada trade fight. Kevin explains why rising long-term yields may be less surprising than investors think, how the AI capex boom can inflate earnings before costs show up, and why leveraged ETFs and policy uncertainty could make markets more fragile. Kevin Muir on X https://x.com/kevinmuir The MacroTourist https://themacrotourist.com Topics covered Why stronger nominal GDP, large fiscal deficits and record corporate issuance are pressuring long-term Treasury yields How Scott Bessent's Treasury liquidity buybacks work and why investors are comparing them with QE and Operation Twist How replacing long-dated Treasuries with T-bills could ultimately force reserve management purchases by the Federal Reserve Why the Treasury General Account matters for liquidity and why attempts to manage the yield curve can distort market signals Jim Chanos's "earnings bubble" argument and how massive AI data-center capex can boost current earnings while costs are amortized Why stock prices can fall before forward earnings estimates roll over, and why retail investors may have an advantage over institutions How daily-reset leveraged ETFs create reflexive buying and selling and could amplify a semiconductor or single-stock selloff Why Kevin is bullish on gold again, the role of People's Bank of China demand, and how he combines fundamentals with technical signals Why platinum below production cost caught his attention and what rolling mini-bubbles in gold, silver and AI say about investor psychology What 2025 U.S.-Canada trade data says about autos, oil and gas, manufacturing, tariffs and the economic cost of policy uncertainty Timestamps 00:00 Intro 06:31 Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks and the bond market 10:39 How T-bill issuance could lead to debt monetization 18:25 The AI capex boom and the "earnings bubble" 22:27 The giant bet embedded in accelerating AI earnings 27:37 Why leveraged ETFs are changing market structure 32:00 How forced ETF unwinds can amplify a selloff 36:41 Why Kevin is bullish on gold again 41:57 Platinum, production costs and the precious metals trade 46:08 Sentiment extremes and why popular trades get dangerous 51:00 Globalization, manufacturing and America's distribution problem 55:00 Why oil and gas dominate the U.S.-Canada trade deficit 59:00 How tariff uncertainty can deter U.S. manufacturing investment 01:03:10 The trade math Kevin wants investors to see Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • August 28 · 57 min

    Private Equity Chased Software. Big Tech Is Chasing AI. Dan Rasmussen on If They Are Making the Same Mistake Twice

    Dan Rasmussen, founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers and author of The Humble Investor, joins Kai Wu to examine the unraveling of private equity, the rise of private credit, and how AI is reshaping software, labor, and the economics of technology investing. They also explore the massive AI CapEx boom, why value investing has struggled in the intangible-heavy U.S. market, the unusual opportunity in Japanese small caps, and how investors can quantify intangible value in biotech. Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Subscribe on Apple Topics covered: Why private equity became a consensus trade and why exits are now clogged How leverage and high debt costs threaten private equity returns What publicly traded private equity funds reveal about true volatility and NAV discounts How private equity shifted from old-economy buyouts into software and healthcare technology Why AI may have erased code as a software moat while strengthening other intangible advantages How ARR lending helped private credit finance software buyouts and created an obsolescence mismatch What AI is doing to hiring, junior roles, productivity and the composition of work Why the AI CapEx boom may be a crowded, path-dependent overinvestment cycle Why traditional value metrics work better in Japan than in the intangible-heavy U.S. How Tokyo Stock Exchange reforms, buybacks and dividends can unlock value in Japanese small caps How R&D spend, specialist ownership and short interest can help quantify biotech value Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 04:03 Why private equity's debt burden changes the equity math 09:24 How private equity became a software momentum trade 13:29 Why code may no longer be a durable software moat 17:48 How private credit enabled software buyouts through ARR lending 23:56 AI productivity, jobs and why displacement is slower than expected 30:23 Why the AI CapEx boom may be the market's most crowded risk 34:29 Rational overinvestment, leverage and the timing risk in AI 38:46 Why consumers may capture more of AI's value than investors 44:07 Japan's below-book-value reform and the return of old-school value 51:03 Quantifying biotech value with R&D, specialist ownership and short interest 55:08 Dan's non-consensus views on private markets and Japan Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E478
    August 25 · 1 hr

    Only 2.7% Beat the S&P for 20 Years | Ian Cassel on What Elite Stock Pickers Do Differently

    Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCapClub and author of Stock Picker, joins Matt Zeigler to break down the mindset, temperament and core skills required to outperform as an active stock picker. They discuss microcap investing, position sizing, active patience, valuation, management quality, portfolio survival, benchmarking against the S&P 500 and how great investors evolve their edge over decades. Stock Picker: How to Develop the Mindset, Temperament, and Strategy to Outperform Wall Street https://amzn.to/4hU28ImTopics covered How an investor's motivations change as ambition gives way to family, legacy and the scarcity of time How Ian turned $20,000 into $120,000, then watched it fall to $8,000, and why that early win permanently shaped his risk tolerance Ian's four-part survival framework: recession-resistant growth, strong balance sheets, conservative valuation and signs of intelligent fanaticism Why balance-sheet strength is not just defensive and can let great companies act aggressively when competitors are forced to retreat Why Ian targets roughly a 25 percent CAGR without relying on multiple expansion The Judas goat lesson, talking your book on social media and why investors still have to do their own work Why comparing short-term returns can corrupt an investing process and why Ian measures himself against the S&P 500 over a 10-year horizon The five core stock-picking skills: identifying, analyzing, buying, selling and holding, plus why selling matters especially in microcaps Why position sizing should account for initial excitement, and why Ian now starts much smaller than he did earlier in his career Active patience, expanding your circle of competence and the difference between good, great and GOAT stock pickers Why temperament evolves with experience, why leverage can destroy otherwise good investing, and why the best investors keep sharpening their edge Why Ian is willing to back repeat-winner management teams before every piece of the business is fully in place Timestamps 00:00 Intro 06:58 The $20,000 to $120,000 win and 90 percent loss 11:02 Ian Cassel's four-part survival framework 15:02 Why strong balance sheets create offensive optionality 19:03 The Judas goat and social media stock promotion 23:18 Why comparison is the enemy for stock pickers 29:39 The five core stock-picking skills 34:43 Active patience and knowing what you are looking for 39:28 Good, great and GOAT stock pickers 47:02 How investor temperament evolves over time 52:03 Leverage, situational awareness and surviving to compound 57:24 Betting on repeat-winner management before the numbers arrive Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E477
    August 22 · 1 hr 1 min

    The Rally is Broadening. The Earnings Growth Isn't. Liz Ann Sonders on Which Breaks First

    Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins us to explain why today's economy and stock market are increasingly defined by rotation, instability and a changing stock-bond relationship. We discuss AI capital spending and earnings concentration, Treasury yields and the deficit, immigration and labor supply, investor sentiment, market breadth, portfolio rebalancing, IPOs and the growing economic importance of the stock market wealth effect. Topics covered: Why the post-pandemic economy is moving through sector-level recessions and expansions instead of a traditional linear cycle The return of a more temperamental market regime, inflation volatility and the changing correlation between stocks and bonds Why volatility-based rebalancing may matter more than calendar-based rebalancing and why market leadership is broadening Immigration, labor shortages and why slower population growth changes how investors should interpret payroll data Federal deficits, entitlement spending, rising 30-year Treasury yields and why Treasury intervention cannot solve the underlying fundamentals How the AI spending boom, imports and hyperscaler capital expenditures are affecting GDP, bond issuance and capital markets Corporate profits versus labor compensation and why Liz Ann does not see an obvious near-term catalyst for convergence Kevin Warsh, reduced Fed guidance and why less communication could create more market uncertainty Attitudinal versus behavioral investor sentiment, the vibe session and why sentiment is becoming harder to use as a timing signal The AI cascade beyond mega-cap tech, the Neural Nine, small caps and why rotation may be the new momentum trade Margin debt, record household equity exposure and the risk that a future stock market decline feeds back into the economy S&P 500 earnings concentration, sell-side versus buy-side expectations, AI depreciation risk and the return of a major IPO cycle Timestamps: 00:00 Liz Ann Sonders on the unusual 2026 market and economic cycle 05:49 Portfolio construction, diversification and volatility-based rebalancing 11:39 Immigration, labor supply and the new payroll breakeven rate 17:38 Why long-term Treasury yields are rising and what the Treasury can and cannot fix 22:07 Corporate profits versus labor compensation as a share of GDP 27:37 Attitudinal versus behavioral sentiment and lessons from 2022 32:13 The vibe session, consumer confidence and conflicting investor expectations 37:14 The Neural Nine, widening stock dispersion and rotation as the new momentum 41:21 Margin debt, leveraged speculation and where the real risk may be 45:52 S&P 500 earnings growth, concentration and the sell-side versus buy-side gap 50:27 Hyperscaler AI capex, debt financing and signals from the corporate bond market 55:05 IPOs, FOMO and why investors should be careful about chasing new issues 60:05 Where to follow the real Liz Ann Sonders and avoid impersonator scams Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • August 20 · 1 hr

    We Asked Andy Constan What Happens If AI Funding Breaks Before the Thesis — And if Warsh Blinks

    Andy Constan is back on First Principles to explain why record stock prices, rising long-term Treasury yields and sticky inflation can all coexist, and why the next major market risk may come from the financing behind the AI CapEx boom rather than the eventual return on that investment. We discuss Kevin Warsh and Fed balance sheet policy, Treasury issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement, corporate bond and equity supply, Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure, and Andy's "not enough pie" framework for comparing AI earnings expectations with GDP and productivity growth. Follow First Principles on Spotify⁠ ⁠Follow First Principles of Apple Podcasts Topics covered Why rising long-term interest rates can be consistent with strong economic growth and record stock prices Why Andy does not see higher government interest costs creating an imminent U.S. debt crisis The "script to kill inflation" and why reducing the wealth effect may require lower stock, bond and asset prices How the Fed, Treasury and other policymakers have suppressed long-term interest rates and risk premiums Why Kevin Warsh's comments about the Fed balance sheet and letting the bond market "do the work" could signal a policy shift How Treasury bill issuance, coupon issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement can affect stocks, bonds and financial conditions Why the AI CapEx boom is shifting from cash flow funding toward massive corporate debt and equity issuance Andy's "hamburger thesis" and why the ability to finance AI infrastructure may matter before anyone knows the ultimate AI ROI Why capital markets can suddenly close after issuance booms and what that could mean for the AI investment cycle How Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure expands the pool of capital available to data center projects The "not enough pie" problem: why projected corporate earnings may require extraordinary GDP growth, productivity gains or a larger corporate share of the economy What Andy watches in new stock and bond deals for signs that investors are becoming unwilling to absorb more supply Timestamps 00:00:08 Why stocks, long-term yields and inflation can all rise together 00:07:18 The "script to kill inflation" and why short-term rates may not be enough 00:12:48 How policymakers have suppressed long-term interest rates 00:16:53 The Warsh "drumbeat" and a possible shift in Fed balance sheet policy 00:21:56 Why markets may be underestimating Warsh's willingness to fight inflation 00:26:27 Treasury bills versus coupons and the limits of current financing policy 00:31:33 The "hamburger thesis" behind the massive AI CapEx funding shift 00:38:41 Why AI financing may matter more than AI ROI in the short run 00:42:55 Breaking down Nvidia's $500 billion data center financing structure 00:47:51 The "not enough pie" problem for AI earnings and economic growth 00:52:03 Demographics, productivity and the limits on future GDP growth 00:56:14 What issuance prices reveal about capital market stress Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E476
    August 18 · 1 hr 7 min

    We Asked Value Legend Bob Robotti Why the Real AI Trade Isn't AI — And Why Passive Helps Stock Pickers

    Bob Robotti, founder and CIO of Robotti & Company, joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explain why bottom-up value investing may be entering one of its best opportunity sets in decades. They discuss AI and reindustrialization, inflation and interest rates, passive investing, capital cycles, private equity, long-term ownership, and why today's neglected industrial businesses may offer opportunities that the market is missing. Bob Robotti on X https://x.com/BobRobotti Robotti & Company https://www.robotti.com Topics covered How Bob finds misunderstood businesses with latent earnings power Why his "grassroots macro" process starts with company-level supply and demand How AI spending is increasing demand for energy, copper, aluminum, cement and other physical assets Why North America's natural gas advantage could support a long-term reindustrialization cycle Why persistent inflation could force higher interest rates and lower valuation multiples Why no competitive moat is permanent, even for today's dominant technology companies How passive investing and shorter time horizons can create opportunities for fundamental stock pickers Why prolonged downturns can improve industry economics through consolidation and reduced capacity Why Bob views himself as an active owner rather than an activist investor Why he is skeptical of today's private equity model and its expansion into retirement portfolios The NewMarket investment that taught him the cost of selling a great business too early Why he thinks individual company research can outperform indexing over the next decade Timestamps 00:00 Intro 04:02 Grassroots macro and the search for latent earnings power 08:37 Why Bob started his own investment firm 13:00 How AI creates demand for the physical economy 17:59 Why Bob avoids the mega-cap technology companies 22:00 Inflation, interest rates and the valuation risk investors may be missing 26:07 Why no competitive moat is permanent 31:36 How passive investing creates opportunities for stock pickers 36:00 Why Bob believes the "fallen" areas of the market can rise again 40:06 How bad business conditions create better long-term investments 44:39 Active ownership, boards and understanding businesses from the inside 48:59 Why Bob is skeptical of modern private equity 55:15 The biggest loss of his career: selling a winner too early 01:03:32 The one investing lesson Bob would teach everyone Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • August 14 · 1 hr

    Jim Paulsen Sees a Growth Scare Coming | The 34 Charts That Make Him Cautious

    In this episode of The Jim Paulsen Show, Jim explains why weakening labor data, softening inflation, and lagged policy tightening could shift markets from inflation fears toward growth and recession fears. He also breaks down why the AI productivity boom may be overstated, how AI capital spending is supporting the economy, why Treasury yields look too high, and why investors may want to rebalance from new era technology stocks toward old era stocks and bonds. Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts Topics Covered Why weak jobs data and benign inflation have changed the outlook for the Federal Reserve Labor force contraction, stalled job growth, and the risks facing consumer spending Housing affordability, services activity, real income, savings, and signs of economic weakness How the stock-bond correlation can reveal a shift from inflation fears to growth and recession fears Why Jim expects Fed rate cuts before year-end and sees downside risk for Treasury yields How higher oil prices, bond yields, and the dollar can hit stocks and the economy with a lag Why today's AI productivity boom may be a mirage rather than a repeat of the 1960s or 1990s How AI CapEx, core capital goods orders, and technology stocks are linked Why the 10-year Treasury yield may be mispriced relative to growth and inflation The widening divide between new era and old era stocks and what it could mean for portfolio allocation Timestamps 00:00 Jim's outlook: weak jobs, benign inflation, and growth fears 04:11 Labor force rollover and consumer warning signs 09:06 Real income collapse and economic surprise data 13:06 Why bond yields could fall below 4 percent 17:45 Why Jim expects Fed cuts instead of hikes 22:07 How policy tightening hits the economy with a lag 26:16 Why productivity gains can be a recession mirage 30:20 What a true productivity boom looks like 34:38 AI stocks as a leading signal for capital spending 39:08 Why Treasury yields may be mispriced 44:31 Oil, core inflation, and the case for easing 48:32 New era versus old era correlation as a warning 52:54 Why today's AI economy may be more vulnerable than dot-com 57:22 Portfolio allocation takeaways: bonds, old era, and tech Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E475
    August 11 · 1 hr

    We Asked T. Rowe's $8 Billion Tech Manager Why We Are in 1998 — And Why Software Is in Trouble

    T. Rowe Price technology portfolio manager Dom Rizzo joins Jack Forehand and Kai Wu to break down the AI investment cycle, hyperscaler capital spending, semiconductor demand, and why the recent tech selloff may look more like 1998 than the end of the boom. They discuss AI return on investment, OpenAI and Anthropic, open versus closed models, financing the data center buildout, the future of software, labor productivity, and how to construct a global technology portfolio. Topics covered Why Dom sees similarities between the 2026 semiconductor correction and the 1998 selloff Why hyperscaler AI CapEx could accelerate from already historic levels What cloud revenue growth and operating margins say about AI return on invested capital Why end-user productivity is the key test for sustainable AI demand Open-weight models versus frontier labs and where AI economic value may accrue Why chips, memory, logic semiconductors, TSMC and ASML sit at critical points in the AI value chain How equity, debt and operating cash flow could finance the next stage of the data center buildout Why semiconductors remain cyclical even in a structurally capital-intensive AI boom Why AI agents could turn traditional enterprise software into data pipes AI productivity, labor displacement and the case for faster GDP growth How Dom thinks about technology portfolio construction, risk factors and global stock selection Timestamps 00:00 AI, the tech correction and the 1998 comparison 04:07 Why the AI capital spending cycle may only be halfway 12:33 The real test for AI demand: end-user ROI 17:00 Why frontier models may capture most of the economic value 21:23 Where the biggest AI moats and profit pools could emerge 28:12 Financing the AI buildout with equity and debt 36:03 Are semiconductors in a supercycle or still cyclical? 41:43 What AI agents mean for traditional software companies 46:03 AI productivity versus labor displacement 51:01 Building a portfolio for a technology revolution 56:06 Global tech opportunities and Dom's stock-picking framework Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E474
    August 8 · 1 hr 3 min

    David Rosenberg and Rich Bernstein on What Ends the AI Trade — And What They Own Instead

    Richard Bernstein and David Rosenberg reunite to debate the Federal Reserve, inflation, the AI investment boom, market bubbles, gold and the case for international diversification. The former Merrill Lynch colleagues examine whether the Fed should raise rates, how AI CapEx is reshaping the U.S. economy, why credit markets may lead the AI trade, what is driving gold, and where investors may find opportunities outside the mega-cap U.S. market. Topics covered Why the Taylor Rule points toward higher rates and why Rosenberg thinks the Fed should not hike What slowing GDP growth, productivity and labor costs suggest about underlying inflation How AI CapEx and data center spending may be misallocating capital away from housing and the broader economy Why the current AI boom differs from the late-1990s technology bubble How credit spreads, CDS markets and financing costs could signal trouble in the AI trade before equities do What real interest rates, the U.S. dollar and central bank demand mean for gold Why Bernstein views gold as a portfolio spare tire rather than a short-term trade Why non-U.S. stocks and international markets may offer a better valuation and growth opportunity How AI exposure extends beyond the Mag Seven into financials, industrials and utilities Why CAPE valuations, leverage, sentiment and market positioning point to a highly speculative U.S. market Why diversification becomes most unpopular when investors may need it most What Bob Farrell's market rules say about crowded positioning and consensus forecasts Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 08:31 Why Rosenberg thinks the Fed should not hike 16:02 AI, data centers and capital misallocation 25:08 What is driving gold: real rates, the dollar and central banks 36:11 Why Bernstein sees a secular shift toward non-U.S. stocks 41:41 How AI concentration extends beyond the technology sector 48:31 International diversification as protection from AI concentration 54:06 Bob Farrell's Rule 9 and the danger of consensus 1:00:06 The housing-cycle warning Bernstein and Rosenberg saw before the financial crisis Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E473
    August 6 · 59 min

    4% Inflation. Stretched Valuations. Why Is the Market Still Risk-On? | Tian Yang

    Tian Yang, head of research at Variant Perception and portfolio manager of the VPX ETF, explains how investors can use adaptive leading indicators, capital cycle analysis and behavioral signals to navigate a market shaped by AI spending, inflation and government intervention. He breaks down why the macro backdrop remains risk-on, what would signal a true market top, why a Federal Reserve rate hike may still be unlikely and how AI could reshape profits, jobs and portfolio construction. Variant Perception https://www.variantperception.com/ Variant Perception Cycle Aware US Equity ETF https://etf.variantperception.com/ Topics covered How first-principles thinking separates causal signals from noisy data Why static recession indicators and consumer sentiment have become less reliable How Variant Perception combines growth, inflation, policy and liquidity into a Macro Risk Indicator Why AI capital spending and low savings rates are supporting economic resilience How AI profits could broaden from hardware bottlenecks to adopters and complementary assets Why the sovereign technology race may extend the AI investment cycle What savings rates, liquidity, leverage and cash settlement reveal about recessions and market tops How potential SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI supply could affect public equity markets What capital cycle and crowding signals say about semiconductors and hyperscalers Why headline inflation may stay high without creating persistent core inflation How the K-shaped consumer, labor market and Federal Reserve reform shape the policy outlook How AI could widen economic inequality, compress wages and change investment research How the VPX ETF uses adaptive sector tilts, stock selection and active risk Timestamps 00:00 First principles, causal data and leading indicators 04:48 Why traditional recession indicators stopped working 09:00 Building the Macro Risk Indicator 13:02 How AI CapEx is keeping the economy resilient 17:18 Is the AI boom different from past bubbles? 21:32 Why rising savings rates often precede recessions 26:11 Why the market-top warning is amber, not red 30:58 Are semiconductors still cyclical? 36:22 Why an oil shock may not force the Fed to hike 42:12 How Kevin Warsh could reform the Federal Reserve 46:50 The increasingly bifurcated economy 51:11 How AI is changing investment research 55:38 Active risk, playing the game and avoiding forced errors Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E472
    August 4 · 1 hr 1 min

    The Biggest Leak in Finance | Brent Donnelly on Why You're Probably Too Bearish

    Brent Donnelly joins Matt Zeigler to explain how professional traders build a durable edge through risk management, trading psychology, probabilistic thinking, and creative market analysis. Drawing from his new book, Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Traders, Brent breaks down why trading strategies decay, why rationality beats intelligence, how to avoid risk of ruin, and how lessons from poker, behavioral finance, and real-world experience can improve decision-making. Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Traders https://amzn.to/4h9bi3e Brent Donnelly on X https://x.com/donnelly_brent Spectra Markets https://www.spectramarkets.com Topics covered: Why fundamentals, technical analysis, behavioral finance, and quantitative methods are necessary but not sufficient for trading success How traders can develop an edge by connecting markets to poker, psychology, biology, auto racing, and video games Why profitable trading strategies decay as more investors discover and copy them How changing volatility regimes force traders to adapt their style and avoid becoming a one-trick pony Why mismatching a long-term investment thesis with a short-term stop loss can destroy a good idea How trading journals and P&L data help separate normal variance from a broken process Why the house money effect can make traders more reckless after large gains Why rationality, flexibility, and expected value matter more than credentials or raw intelligence How Bayesian thinking helps traders update probabilities and fight confirmation bias The difference between independent thinking and blind contrarianism Why avoiding risk of ruin, protecting family and health, and defining success beyond money are essential to a sustainable trading career Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction to Brent Donnelly and Trade Outside the Box 04:00 Why smart analysts often produce fully priced trade ideas 08:00 Poker discipline and avoiding boredom trades 12:00 How lead-lag correlation trading lost its edge 16:35 Matching a trade's stop loss to its time horizon 21:00 What trading data reveals about win rates and expected value 25:00 The house money effect and the danger of overearning 29:00 Why rational traders beat smarter traders 33:00 Strong opinions weakly held and Bayesian updating 37:00 Curating a balanced diet of bullish and bearish information 41:00 Using creativity and outside disciplines to find market edge 45:11 Avoiding risk of ruin and the lessons of Jesse Livermore 50:29 The Serenity Prayer and focusing on what traders can control 55:00 Choosing family and health over markets 59:00 Why your first thought may not be your own Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.

  • August 2 · 1 hr 11 min

    A $20B Blowup. A War-Sized AI Bet. Was the Bottom Just a Margin Call? | Last Call

    On this episode of our new market wrap show Last Call, we examine the hidden rotation beneath calm stock market indexes, including sharp AI and semiconductor volatility, small-cap strength, forced fund liquidations, higher rates and changing Federal Reserve guidance. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba, Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig to discuss stock market correction risk, the economics of the AI data center buildout, options flows, market leverage, regulation and what could drive volatility next.Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠ Topics covered Why market indexes can hide sharp rotation, dispersion and volatility in semiconductors and high-beta technology stocks Jim Paulsen's Policy Pain framework linking oil, Treasury yields, dollar strength and lagged effects on stocks, bonds and economic growth Why technology stocks could enter a bear market while old-economy sectors, small caps and value stocks hold up Ben Hunt's World War AI thesis comparing the AI infrastructure buildout with inflation-adjusted World War II spending How hyperscalers, equity issuance, private credit and government financing could crowd out consumers and businesses Why data centers could consume nearly one quarter of U.S. electricity and lead to higher prices, rationing and government intervention What the Situational Awareness fund liquidation and Citadel portfolio transaction reveal about forced market flows How options correlations and narrow market breadth can separate a technical rebound from a fundamental AI bottom Risks from speculative retail investments, weakened regulators, leverage and cyclical semiconductor profit margins Why reduced Fed forward guidance could create surprise policy decisions and greater algorithmic market volatility Timestamps 00:00 Market rotation and AI volatility beneath the indexes04:07 Jim Paulsen on Policy Pain and market vulnerability09:23 Why tightening hurts stocks before helping bonds14:23 Tech bear market risk and a possible leadership shift18:23 Ben Hunt on World War AI, private credit and systemic risk26:00 Data center electricity demand and the energy constraint31:29 Brent Kochuba on the Situational Awareness liquidation36:00 The forced buying behind the AI stock rebound40:00 Why the liquidation bounce may not signal an AI bottom44:00 How forced flows distort fundamental market narratives48:00 Retail investing pitches, liquidity and cycle FOMO52:00 Deregulation by destaffing at the SEC and CFTC56:00 Semiconductor operating leverage and fragile S&P 500 margins01:00:07 Jack's grievance with the YouTube algorithm01:04:29 What happens when the Fed stops giving forward guidance01:08:34 How markets could react to a surprise Fed decision Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:⁠https://excessreturns.co⁠ No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • July 31 · 30 min

    A War-Sized AI Bet. Private Credit Went All In. Will the Government End Up Owning It?

    We are excited to announce the launch of a new podcast, Why Am I Reading This Now? with Ben Hunt. Stories and narratives are increasingly shaping markets, and Ben and his team at Perscient have developed a unique system for measuring how those narratives emerge, spread and change. In each episode, Ben and Matt Zeigler will examine the major issues facing investors through this narrative lens, helping listeners better understand the stories driving markets and what they could mean for the economy, policy and investment outcomes. We have included this first episode in the Excess Returns feed. To continue receiving new episodes, subscribe to the Why Am I Reading This Now? podcast on all major podcast platforms using the links below. Subscribe on Spotify Subscribe on Apple Topics covered Why AI CapEx and data center construction have become critical drivers of US economic growth How hyperscalers are shifting from cash flow financing to debt, equity issuance and private credit Why a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending could threaten markets, the economy and the financial system How trillions of dollars in AI investment may crowd out consumer credit, business investment and government borrowing Why data centers could consume a dramatically larger share of US electricity production How energy shortages could lead to higher utility costs, rationing and price controls Why the Iran war and higher oil prices may create a lasting increase in global energy costs How Perscient tracks the return of bearish AI narratives and growing political opposition to data centers Why both political parties may support government ownership, loan guarantees, bailouts and economic stimulus How competition with China could become the narrative used to justify greater government control of the AI industry Timestamps 00:00 Introducing Why Am I Reading This Now? with Ben Hunt 04:00 How debt, equity issuance and private credit are financing AI CapEx 08:06 Data center electricity demand and the energy crowding-out problem 13:21 Why an AI bailout may become politically inevitable 17:30 Oil shifts from a temporary shortage to a structural supply reduction 22:00 The bearish AI narrative returns as political opposition grows 26:00 Government ownership, price controls and the AI competition with China

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