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Deconstructor of Fun

Deconstructor of Fun

Deconstructor of Fun podcast is created by games professionals for games professionals. We explore the business side of the games industry with the goal of bringing listeners content that is relevant, insightful, and entertaining on a weekly basis.

Hosts:
Michail Katkoff www.linkedin.com/in/michailkatkoff/
Eric Kress www.linkedin.com/in/erickress/
Phillip Black www.linkedin.com/in/phillip-black-economist/
Jen Donahoe www.linkedin.com/in/jenniferdonahoe

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  • 27 episodes
  • a few times a week
  • Avg 57 min
  • English

Episodes 27

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  • Thursday · 1 hr 2 min

    TWIG #398: Gaming's 2026 Reality Check, The GTA 6 Leak Nightmare and Why Jobs Are Still Vanishing

    Rockstar is fighting a leak it cannot plug, and the leaker has turned the whole thing into a token economy.Episode 398 covers a week where the data says growth and the job market says something else. Newzoo puts 2026 at 214 billion, Makers Fund closes another 250 million that looks nothing like venture capital, Google Play turns RAM into a store requirement, and Gamescom hands us Nodusfall, Palworld on mobile via Garena, and one more round of the HD on mobile argument that never ends.Topics Covered:• CyberLeek posts 16 GTA 6 clips and runs crypto-paid polls on what leaks next• Take-Two subpoenas Microsoft, Discord and Google to unmask whoever is behind it• Newzoo's 2026 forecast hits 214 billion with North America growing slowest• Why layoffs keep coming in a market still growing 6 percent• Makers Fund raises 250 million and shifts into project and UA financing• Google Play makes memory optimization a store requirement in February 2027• Opening Night Live and the endless pile of tactics spin-offs• HoYoverse reveals Nodusfall while its mobile portfolio drops 24 percent• Garena picks up Palworld for mobile and Roco Kingdom goes global• Localization and UI as the real barrier for Eastern games in the West• The HD on mobile fight nobody at the table is winningCHAPTERS:01:12 Today’s Topics Rundown02:19 Gamescom Pics and Shoutouts03:01 Sponsor Updates05:57 GTA6 Leeks16:11 Layoffs and Market Maturity20:10 Makers Fund Raises $250M28:18 Google Play RAM PSA29:29 Gamescom Opening Night Live36:16 Western Appeal Debate37:04 Roco Kingdom Goes Global37:47 Palworld Mobile Licensing38:52 Cozy Combat Audience Shift41:35 Portfolio Decline And Cannibalization51:33 Localization And UI Barriers01:01:18 Wrapping Up And Next Week

  • Wednesday · 1 hr 13 min

    345. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly of UA Financing

    Everyone's telling you cohort financing is free money to scale. It's not, and the contract fine print is where that story falls apart.Josh Chandley (President & COO, Wildcard Games) sits down with Phil Mohr (CEO & Co-founder, Metica) and Martin Macmillan (Founder, Pollen Capital) to break down what cohort financing actually costs, who really takes the risk, and how founders keep getting burned by deals they don't fully understand. Martin lent almost $1B through Pollen VC with zero credit defaults over a decade. Phil looked at 40-50 games before Metica stopped writing new cohort deals altogether. Between them, they unpack the math the sales guys don't want you to run.Topics Covered:• UA financing vs cohort financing• Why receivables lending scaled down• The 80/20 mechanics of a cohort deal• Who actually takes the risk on a cohort• Cross-collateralization and disguised liens• What makes a good candidate for financing• Breakeven windows and LTV curve shape• The real annualized cost of cohort financing• How financing cost raises your effective CPI• Why finance and UA teams don't align• Getting free debt from your ad networks• Red flags in cohort financing contracts• What happens when a cohort underperforms• Debt plus equity hybrid dealsCHAPTERS: 00:00 Cohort Financing Hype00:36 Meet the Experts02:20 UA Financing Explained03:45 Receivables vs Cohorts05:20 How Cohort Deals Work09:04 Hidden Risks and Recourse11:06 Contract Traps to Watch15:39 Who Qualifies for Funding17:49 Payback Windows Sweet Spot18:54 LTV Curve and Game Types22:45 True Cost and IRR Math29:19 Financing Cost in UA Bids32:15 Data Truth and Real-Time Stops36:09 Cohort Risk And Timing37:01 Free Credit From Ad Networks38:40 Why Credit Lines Aren’t Enough43:42 VC Versus Lender Mindset47:05 Questions For Cohort Lenders53:10 Bad Terms And Red Flags56:40 Evolving Financing Stack59:25 Exit Clauses And Flexibility01:02:42 Modeling Downside Scenarios01:07:54 Debt Plus Equity Strategy01:10:18 Final Advice And Wrap Up

  • Monday · 43 min

    344. The Truth About Taking Over A Company

    In March 2025, Jon Bellamy became CEO of Jagex and Alexis Bonte became CEO of Stillfront. Both inherited companies with legacy, scale, and a long list of things that needed to go. This episode is about what actually happens in a games industry CEO's first 100 days.Timestamps00:00 - The first 100 days05:24 - Knowing the company09:15 - Cultural shift15:16 - Choosing focus19:33 - Public versus private24:52 - Board communication30:44 - Evaluating leaders36:15 - Head coach mode39:17 - Three success markers

  • August 20 · 1 hr 7 min

    TWIG #397: Roblox Under Fire, Apple’s EU App Store Shake-Up and Netflix Games’ Studio Retreat

    Crew breaks down another packed week in games. Roblox faces mounting pressure over child safety as Congress launches an investigation, Apple rewrites its EU App Store economics while Germany forces changes to ATT, and Netflix Games keeps shrinking with two more studio closures. Meanwhile, Webtoon makes a $100 million bet on gaming, Devolver Digital heads for the exits after a brutal public-market run, and Mishka goes deep on Voodoo’s latest hybrid-casual hit. Topics Covered:• Roblox’s congressional investigation and growing child-safety pressure• Roblox’s Discord problem • What higher opt-in rates could mean for Meta and mobile UA • Apple’s new EU App Store fee structure• Webtoon buying up to 60% of RI Games Holdings • Netflix Games closing Night School Studio and Moonlit • Devolver Digital delisting after its stock fell roughly 97% • Castle Crushers, Voodoo’s hybrid-casual formula and its path toward a $100M run rate • What Voodoo’s evolution says about the French hyper-casual ecosystem• Kingdom Hearts’ new animated series and Kingdom Hearts IV targeting late 2027 CHAPTERS: 00:00 Welcome and Hosts 01:02 Episode Agenda Preview 02:37 Jury Duty and Snake Heroics 04:03 Seattle SLICE Conference Plug 04:48 Mishka Updates and Events 06:24 Corrections on Turkey Funding 09:21 Roblox Under Investigation 14:03 Roblox Safety Measures Debate 21:13 ATT Changes in Germany 27:18 EU App Store Fee Overhaul 36:56 Markets and Monetization 37:29 Webtoon Buys Game Studio 40:07 Funding and UA Reality 43:35 Mid Market Myth Busting 46:44 Transmedia LTV Strategy 49:36 Netflix Games Retrenchment 54:01 Devolver Delisting Lessons 56:32 Castle Crushers Deep Dive 01:01:11 Voodoo and France Squeeze 01:06:14 Wrap and Next Week

  • August 20 · 44 min

    343. WEBTOON Is Bigger Than Monopoly Go: Inside a New Game Marketing Channel

    Jen sits down with WEBTOON and Square Enix to break down a channel that reaches mobile, PC, and console at once.UA is saturated and everyone is hunting for new reach. WEBTOON has 160 million MAU, about 90% under 34, and roughly 69% of its readers play games across all three platforms. Christine Yu (WEBTOON) and Melanie Gordon (Square Enix) walk through how the Visions of Mana and Dragon Quest VII Reimagined campaigns actually came together, what the branded epilogue format is, how long these collabs take, and how the Coin Hunter offerwall is driving 10,000 verified Steam wishlist adds a week.Topics Covered:• The vertical scroll format and why Gen Z never touched a comic book• 160M MAU and how WEBTOON monetizes like a free to play game• $2.7B paid out to creators and 124,000 new episodes a day• Creators as influencers and why the comment section matters• The branded epilogue and the Visions of Mana collab results• Dragon Quest VII Reimagined and the Tabletop partnership• Timelines, approvals, and what marketers need to bring to the table• Licensing collab creative for paid media, owned social, and UA• Coin Hunter, the offerwall, and pay per verified Steam wishlist• Where WEBTOON sits in the funnel and why ROAS is the wrong first questionCHAPTERS:01:33 — What Is WEBTOON04:21 — Mel's Fan Origin Story06:26 — WEBTOON as an IP Engine09:17 — Creators as Influencers11:24 — Turning Fandom Into a Marketing Channel13:14 — Case Study: Visions of Mana x The Greatest Estate Developer15:20 — Inside the Collab Process17:33 — Western Market Performance20:00 — Case Study: Dragon Quest VII Reimagined x Tabletop24:07 — Campaign Types and Timelines27:32 — Repurposing Collab Content for UA/Social30:18 — What Makes It Feel Authentic (Not Cheesy)32:00 — Performance, ROAS, and Funnel Placement34:00 — Beyond Anime: Genre and Demographic Diversity37:08 — Audience Demographics38:00 — Lower-Funnel Product: Coin Hunter / Steam Wishlist41:00 — What's Next & Wrap-Up Wishlist 42:00 — Recap and Closing (Brandformance)

  • August 17 · 1 hr 40 min

    342. The Man Behind Most Gaming Deals | Affan Butt, Aream & Co.

    Affan Butt has advised on 110+ gaming M&A deals worth $40 billion. He breaks down how game studios actually get sold, what acquirers pay for, and why earnouts wreck founders. We go through a studio acquisition from the founder's side of the table. How M&A processes really start, what due diligence looks like, why inbound corp dev interest is not validation, how bidding wars backfire, and the way earnout structures quietly turn against the people who signed them. 0:00 Loom Games sale to Scopely3:21 What creates FOMO in a deal10:58 Investment banker in gaming 21:14 Supercell story 26:26 Peak Games story 39:03 Private equity in gaming 42:12 Deal timelines48:21 Due diligence53:54 When to say no to a sale 68:10 Why deals fail74:20 Earnouts and incentives86:28 The changing exit landscape94:35 Where the gaming cycle is now

  • August 13 · 1 hr 10 min

    TWIG #396: AppLovin's Q2, Unity's Supersonic Fire Sale and GTA VI's Netflix Trailer Drama

    Crew breaks down a packed week in mobile and games. AppLovin's stock craters despite the SEC closing its inquiry with no action, Unity sells Supersonic to Tripledot for a shockingly low $40 million, and Take-Two's GTA VI presales are on fire even as its mobile business slows. Topics Covered:• AppLovin's Q2 earnings and stock drop despite growth• Unity's Vector model closing the gap with AppLovin• Unity selling Supersonic to Tripledot for $40M• Take-Two's Q2 earnings, Zynga portfolio trends and GTA VI presales• GTA VI's Netflix trailer exclusive• Blizzard's leaked internal email and its quiet turnaround• Ubisoft Barcelona's layoffs and the birth of Puzzle Mage• Royal Smash and the rise of cannon physics puzzlesCHAPTERS:02:06 Spider-Man numbers debate03:23 Why Spider-Man wins03:53 Odyssey movie review05:28 Seattle roundtable recap07:34 Audience Qs and Roblox08:55 Corrections and Royal Match12:08 AppLovin earnings breakdown18:52 Unity Vector and D2827:14 Unity sells Supersonic34:21 Unity Supersonic Bargain35:09 Take Two Bookings Breakdown36:19 Zynga Portfolio Reality Check39:07 Old Games vs New Hits46:36 GTA VI Preorders and Netflix49:41 Blizzard Comeback Email53:31 Ubisoft Barcelona Fallout56:05 Royal Smash New Subgenre01:00:45 Farm Team and Monetization01:08:51 Wrap Up and Banter

  • August 10 · 1 hr 8 min

    341. Why the Best Founders Are Neither American nor European

    Emmanuel De Maistre didn’t build Scenario by choosing between Silicon Valley ambition and European pragmatism. He learned to use both.In this conversation, the Scenario founder breaks down what years of building in the US taught him about ambition, failure, and venture-scale thinking, and why European founders often bring the grounding that Silicon Valley lacks. We also get into what AI adoption actually looks like inside top game studios, why buying tools rarely translates into real usage, what happens to creative teams when AI enters production, and why today’s AI economics may be hiding problems that surface when cheap tokens disappear.This is a conversation about AI, gaming, and startup culture from a founder who has already learned what happens when growth outruns fundamentals. Fewer than 20 people, near-zero customer churn, profitable before a Series A. No “AI will replace everyone” predictions, no ARR theater. Just a founder making the case that the best operators combine American ambition with European grounding.

  • August 6 · 1 hr 7 min

    TWIG #395: Xbox Prices Explode, Roblox's Worst Day Ever, and Merge Eats Puzzle

    Xbox prices in Europe jumped as much as 50%, and the console math now writes itself.The crew digs into a rough week for hardware and a strange one for puzzle. PS5 is suddenly the obvious pick while a global RAM crunch threatens the entire next console cycle. Capcom is printing money off seven-year-old games. Roblox got its stock cut 30% after guiding bookings down, and the fight over its algorithm change turns into a bigger argument about platform health versus shareholder duty. Then Phil and Kress go to war over whether Merge-2 is real innovation or the same mechanic in a new skin, while it quietly overtakes Match on downloads for the first time.Topics Covered:• Xbox price hikes of 30 to 50% across Europe• Why PS5 is now the obvious console pick this generation• The RAM crunch that could break the next console cycle• Capcom's back catalog driving 90% of unit sales• Roblox stock crashing 30% after earnings• Retention thresholds and the collapse of viral hits• What the child torture games actually are• Roblox platform health vs fiduciary duty• Japan slowly opening up to foreign capital• Merge-2 climbing to 20% of the US puzzle market• Merge downloads overtaking Match for the first time• Whether Merge is innovation or reskinned mechanics• China flooding UA channels and taking Western shareCHAPTERS: 00:00 Cold Open Introductions00:45 Headlines And Banter02:48 EA Deal Layoff Rumors03:51 Creator Tools And Events07:22 Netflix FIFA Studio Shutdown10:39 Sony Earnings Xbox Prices13:33 Memory Crunch Console Future20:22 Capcom Catalog Dominance27:43 Roblox Earnings Slump35:17 Algorithm Chaos Fallout37:08 Retention Threshold Reality40:00 Child Torture Games Explained42:41 Profit vs Platform Health44:37 Valuation and Downside Risk47:38 Scopely Bets on Japan52:16 Merge 2 Takes Over Puzzle54:46 Is Merge Actually Innovation56:39 Meta Systems Drive Growth01:05:04 China Floods UA Channels01:06:17 Wrap Up and Goodbye

  • August 3 · 32 min

    340. The $12B+ Mobile Ad Market: Sensor Tower's First-Ever Deep Dive

    After years of saying not yet, Sensor Tower finally estimated mobile ad revenue, and the number is $12 billion for 2025.Josh Chandley and Sensor Tower's lead gaming insights analyst Sam walk through how the estimates were built and why $12 billion is a conservative floor. We get into why puzzle pulls more than half of all gaming ad revenue, how AppLovin keeps eating share while smaller networks shrink, the non-gaming advertisers like Temu, Shein, and finance apps flooding into gaming inventory, and why AP-focused hybrids out-earn ad-first hybrids by 4x.CHAPTERS: 00:00 Why Ads Were Opaque01:07 How Sensor Tower Models Ads02:31 The 12 Billion Headline04:00 Coverage Countries Networks06:07 Ads Versus IAP D2C08:52 Non Gaming Demand Surge12:55 Network Share Winners15:15 AppLovin Take Rate Debate19:04 Puzzle Dominates Ad Revenue26:17 Hybrid Casual Economics30:25 Studio Strategy And Wrap

  • July 31 · 53 min

    TWIG #394: Playtika's Solitaire Meltdown, the AppLovin-AdMob Duopoly and Why Nobody Wants New Games

    The crew breaks down Sensor Tower's big H1 2026 report, digs into why downloads keep falling while nobody seems to want new games, and asks whether ad revenue was ever going to save anyone. Plus a Warframe live service masterclass and the arrow craze that Kress would very much like everyone to stop talking about.Topics Covered:• Disney Solitaire cannibalizing Solitaire Grand Harvest • Where the diligence went on the SuperPlay deal and who is left • Washington State suing Playtika and Aristocrat over social casino• Sensor Tower H1 2026 with downloads down 12% • The 4X surge stalling out while puzzle keeps compounding• The D2C debate and whether the market ishealthier than it looks• AppLovin and AdMob running two-thirds of gaming ad revenue and what that consolidation does to CPIs• Why the top ad revenue games are smaller than anyone expected• Warframe as the live service masterclass Destiny never pulled offCHAPTERS:00:00 – Intro & welcome (Jen, Kress, Phil, Mishka)01:00 – Mishka's Greece trip & DoF event updates (Seattle Roundtables, Gamescom, Grand Slam, Supper Club)08:00 – Playtika update: Solitaire Grand Harvest cannibalized by Disney Solitaire12:00 – M&A Masterclass callback (Chris Petrarca) & licensing math on Disney deal14:00 – Washington State's gambling lawsuit vs. Playtika — social casino legal risk17:00 – Sensor Tower H1 2026 report: overview & app discovery is "broken"20:00 – Direct-to-consumer (D2C) web shops: how big is the impact really?23:00 – D2C by genre: 4X, social casino, Marvel Strike Force example25:00 – Genre trends: strategy down, puzzle up, Block Blast highlight26:00 – The "Arrow" hyper-casual craze — Block Blast install decline29:00 – UA costs spiking: ad spend up, downloads down30:00 – AppLovin & AdMob's growing duopoly over UA33:00 – Social casino's steepest genre decline & D2C revenue shift36:00 – Top publishers by ad revenue (King, Easy Brain, Huuuge)39:00 – Sensor Tower report wrap-up & praise42:00 – Warframe/Digital Extremes: Destiny comparison & live-service execution44:00 – Warframe monetization model breakdown45:00 – Digital Extremes' mobile SKU built with Finland's Nitro Games46:00 – Warframe mobile growth numbers (PC halo effect)48:00 – Squad RPG/gacha mechanics critique — mobile "solved this years ago"50:00 – Why no Western studio has cracked mobile shooters (Fortnite, Roblox Rivals)51:00 – Warframe's marketing-driven themed content drops52:00 – Shoutout: Christopher Dring's podcast52:00 – Outro & next week preview (Castle Clashers, Capcom)

  • July 27 · 36 min

    Puzzle Monthly #5: The Secret Behind Toon Blast's Success

    Why is Toon Blast still growing while every other Blast game is fading away?In this episode of Puzzle Monthly, we break down Toon Blast's remarkable resurgence, from its early days challenging Toy Blast to its recent revenue explosion fueled by Super Light Ball, LiveOps innovation, and relentless experimentation. We explore why Peak Games continues to outperform the entire Blast genre, and what every puzzle developer can learn from it.Topics Covered:• The evolution of Blast games: Pet Rescue Saga, Toy Blast, and Toon Blast• Why Toon Blast continues to grow while the rest of the Blast genre declines• Super Light Ball and how it transformed engagement and monetization• How LiveOps, Collection Meta, Wild Journey, and new progression systems fueled Toon Blast's resurgence• Why Peak's continuous experimentation has kept the game relevant for over a decade• Whether there's still room for new Blast games or if studios should look elsewhere CHAPTERS: 00:00 Meet The Hosts 00:40 Why Toon Blast Still Wins 02:33 Blast Games Origins 02:56 Pet Rescue Vs Fun Luck 04:06 Toy Blast Changes Everything 08:26 Why Others Couldn't Copy 11:43 Revenue Surge Explained 12:33 Super Light Bulb Deep Dive 17:13 ARPDAU Jumps And Data 20:58 Live Ops And Collections 25:39 Wild Cards And Monetization 31:25 Events Cadence Overhaul 34:13 Future Outlook And Wrap

  • July 23 · 58 min

    TWIG #393: GTA 6's Impossible Attach Rate, Playtika's Earn-Out Disaster, and Unity 7's Big Swing

    Convoy says 85 million copies in 60 days. That means 63% of every console owner alive buys GTA 6, and the closest anyone has come without a bundle is half that.The crew digs into the Newzoo and Convoy numbers behind GTA 6 and finds projections that would require almost every active console owner on earth to buy it. Then Playtika, where a badly negotiated earn-out turned Superplay's success into a balance sheet problem big enough to put the studio on the block. Plus Unity 7's roadmap, Netflix throwing out gaming metrics that mean nothing, and what Township's match mode says about where mobile is heading.Topics Covered:• GTA 6 pre-orders skewing 89% to the $100 SKU• Why the projected attach rates are fantasy• The Ultimate Edition as soft price increase• UGC as the real GTA 6 story nobody is telling• Unity 7 roadmap, MCP integration and no-code web shops• Why Unity cannot scale against AppLovin• Tencent circling Superplay at up to $1.5 billion• The earn-out that broke Playtika's balance sheet• Disney Solitaire's trajectory into 2026• Netflix reporting 11x growth on numbers it will not disclose• Township bolting match onto a builder and printing money• Playable ads becoming actual game modesCHAPTERS: 00:24 Show Intro and Agenda01:38 Banter Marvel Trailers02:49 Announcements and Roundtables04:26 Xbox Hire Update06:14 GTA6 Preorders Pricing15:01 Ultimate Edition Strategy17:33 UGC and Online Upside19:15 Unity 7 Roadmap26:03 Playtika Superplay Rumor27:26 Superplay Earnout Breakdown28:11 Earn Out Math28:59 Tencent Deal Questions29:38 Disney Solitaire Outlook30:49 Why Sell Superplay34:48 Superplay Hits Breakdown36:02 Valuation Reality Check39:13 EA Predicts Winners40:49 Netflix Gaming Metrics43:26 What Metrics Matter46:49 Netflix Versus YouTube48:06 Township Versus Top Tycoon50:41 Match 3 Monetization Engine52:43 Hybridization And Playable Ads56:15 Fortnite Obsession Collab57:43 Wrap Up And Goodbye

  • July 21 · 54 min

    Shooter Monthly #8: The Bungie Eulogy, Why Destiny Fell Off, and Can Marathon Save the Studio

    Bungie built the defining live shooter of the decade, then spent ten years surviving its own crises. This one plays like the eulogy.The crew runs the full ups and downs of Bungie from Myth to Marathon, with an ex-Bungie insider walking through every near-death moment, why Destiny endured far longer than anyone predicted, why it finally fell off, and whether Sony and Marathon can pull the studio back from the edge.Topics Covered:• The end of Destiny and whether Bungie is actually done• The hot take that Xbox is in decline and Bungie should return to make Halo• The full Bungie crisis history from the Myth 2 uninstaller disaster to Marathon• The internal Destiny Supercut that blew up 14 months before launch• The Taken King and Forsaken redemption arcs• Sony's acquisition, the Lightfall flop, and The Final Shape as the ending• Why Destiny survived when its narrative and monetization kept misfiring• The free-to-play misfit problem and DLC warbond monetization• Promising the future as the real retention engine• The maintenance mode debate for aging live service shooters• What Marathon actually needs to rebound

  • July 20 · 1 hr 8 min

    339. The Most Honest AI Adoption Story in Gaming

    InnoGames didn't reach for AI to chase a trend. They reached for it because the alternative was shutting down a game people love.Thomas Lehr walks through how InnoGames kept Sunrise Village alive after the business case stopped working, taking the team from 25 people down to 3 and stabilizing a title that was slipping. This is the rare AI adoption story told with actual numbers, actual workflows, and no hiding the parts everyone else leaves out. No people pushed out, no game handed to the agents, no hype. Just a methodical breakdown of where the time went and what AI could realistically take off the table.Topics Covered:• Why the game was declining and what options were on the table before AI• What happened to all 25 people on the team• Going from 25 humans to 3 humans plus AI without killing the game• Decomposing the production pipeline to find where time actually goes• The six-step AI stage designer covering story, quests, balancing, maps, placement, and cinematics• Why building custom tooling beats subscribing to 15 shiny products• Sticking with GPT-4o for years while the pipeline just worked• What it actually costs to run the pipeline every month• The 84% of developers who reject AI at any stage, and the pushback inside the company• A direct playbook for a stuck studio making 500k a month

  • July 16 · 59 min

    TWIG #392: Pokémon’s Gamble, World Cup WHAT & the Monetization Debate

    Jen, Eric, and Phil break down a week where EA torched a premium launch, Sony declared the disc dead, and Riot reminded everyone that nostalgia is still the most reliable growth lever in games. Monetization is the throughline all the way down: who actually has a lever left to pull, and how badly you can blow it up when you pull it wrong.Topics Covered:• League of Legends Classic and the nostalgia playbook• Why WoW Classic and Fortnite OG print money• Whether a Classic mode can actually monetize• eFootball and FC Mobile riding the World Cup• FIFA leaving interactive money on the table• Ultra local live ops and the halftime spike• Pokemon Champions and Nintendo's monetization ceiling• EA College Football 2027 and its pay to progress disaster• The Battlefront II lesson EA forgot• Phil's gunpowder model for monetization backlash• Why premium publishers have no lever left but ARPU• Sony killing the physical disc by 2028CHAPTERS: 00:00 Welcome and Hosts00:23 Episode Agenda01:12 Euro Summer Banter02:42 Seattle Roundtable Plug04:20 Corrections and Clarifications05:27 Xbox Bethesda Strategy10:08 League Classic Nostalgia17:31 Classic Modes Monetization21:57 World Cup Game Boost27:40 Ultra Local Live Ops30:56 Pokemon Champions Reveal31:32 Pikmin and Pokémon Benchmarks32:17 Why Monetization Falls Flat33:42 Switch SKU and Tencent Playbook34:31 EA College Football Backlash40:02 Marketing vs Design Debate43:20 Phil’s Gunpowder Model48:10 Premium Games Need ARPU51:20 Sony Ends Physical Discs56:00 Digital Wins and Final Wrap

  • July 13 · 30 min

    338. The Mobile vs Web User Acquisition: What Nobody's Talking About

    AppsFlyer just took attribution off mobile and put it on the open web, and it might be the biggest unlock D2C web shops have seen yet.Josh Chandley talks with Adam Smart, Global Director of Product for Gaming at AppsFlyer, about the company's new web attribution product and its bigger bet on becoming a "Modern Marketing Cloud" spanning web, PlayStation, Xbox, and Oculus.Topics Covered:• AppsFlyer's new web attribution product• The shift from MMP to Modern Marketing Cloud• Why D2C web shops are the biggest day one unlock• Mobile UA mindset vs web UA mindset• Fraud and accountability on mobile vs web• Connecting web attribution to in-app ad networksCHAPTERS: 00:19 Why Web Attribution Matters00:33 Modern Marketing Cloud Vision03:28 Web vs Mobile Measurement Basics03:59 Neutral Attribution and ROAS Truth05:59 Why Launch Web Now08:13 D2C Web Shops and Growth11:49 Day One Studio Changes13:38 Mobile vs Web Mindsets15:15 Accountability and Fraud Reality17:37 Connecting Web and In App Ads19:54 Modern Marketing Cloud Explained23:42 Future of UA with AI28:32 AI Agents and Automation in Outlier29:30 Wrap Up and Where to Learn More

  • July 9 · 56 min

    TWIG #391: Xbox's 4,800 Cuts, Apex Predator Playbook, and the 6% Problem Killing New Games

    Xbox just got torched, and the math says new games can't win.Jen and Eric (two for TWIG this week) break down the biggest restructuring in Xbox history: 4,800 jobs cut, Asha Sharma unwinding Phil Spencer's entire studio buying spree, and King and Minecraft pulled in to report directly to her. Is this the setup for an Activision Blizzard 2.0 spin-out? Then they dig into fresh Newzoo data on why only 6% of the market is open to new IP, why forever games keep winning, and how growth has become an ARPU story instead of a new-player story.Topics Covered:• Microsoft cuts 4,800 jobs and 20% of Xbox's workforce• Sharma's memo and the "apex predator" restructuring playbook• King and Minecraft reporting straight to Sharma• Compulsion and Double Fine go independent with their IP• Helen Chang named Xbox's first COO, and what a single P&L signals• The spin-out theory and Activision Blizzard 2.0• Game Pass is stuck at 30 million and devaluing the $80 game• Why only 6% of the market is open to new IP• 60% of revenue coming from games five years or older• Growth as an ARPU story in the West and China• Last War, Whiteout Survival and Kingshot are proving the UA arbitrage gameCHAPTERS:00:00 - Werlcome & Agenda01:57 - World Cup Keeper Highlights03:35 - Kress's New Setup & Family Updates05:42 - NYT Games Shill07:30 - Xbox Rumors to Reality10:51 - Layoffs & Studio Shuffles13:26 - GamePass Stalls at 30 Mil14:45 - King, Mobile, and Minecraft Blindspots19:40 - Vanity Metrics Reality Check21:52 - COO PnL and Platform Model Critique24:22 - Booty Portfolio Shrinks & Next Steps25:46 - Gamepass Devalues Games27:01 - Publishers abandon Xbox28:25 - Spinout and Activision 2.030:04 - Microsoft & King Strategy32:29 - Embracer Parallel Lessons36:14 - Easy Cuts & Creative's Hard Work46:28 - Pipeline Worries for New Hits50:27 - ARPU & GTA Monetization53:11 - Mobile UA Arbitrage Reality54:58 - What Could Save the Industry

  • July 6 · 50 min

    337. Inside New York Times Games: Why Killing 96% of New Ideas Is the Win

    Zoe Bell is the Executive Producer of Games at The New York Times. If you've played Wordle, Connections, Spelling Bee, Strands, Letter Boxed, the Mini, or the Crossword, you've played something she helped build or bring to life. NYT has nearly 13 million subscribers, which includes the game business that features some ads but no in-app purchases and no battle pass.The players run from your group chat to the Vatican. The Pope has mentioned doing the Wordle in interviews, and Carol Burnett's celebrity Wordle group, including Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Charlize Theron, went on Jimmy Kimmel to accuse her of cheating. Her defense: there's no way to cheat at Wordle, and solving it in one guess is just an accident.Zoe sits down with Jen Donahoe to explain how a newspaper that has run for 175 years became one of the biggest names in games. They get into why the team kills 96% of the games it tries, how a subscription model reshapes the way they design and measure success, and what it takes to launch Crossplay, a full multiplayer layer on games that are fundamentally solo.They also talk about making every puzzle by hand while the rest of the industry automates, and where AI earns a place when human craft is the whole point. For anyone building games, this one is a window into the economics and the discipline behind one of the most envied portfolios in the business.CHAPTERS:00:00 Welcome and Guest Intro01:03 From Zynga to Times03:40 Culture Shock at NYT05:53 Respecting Game Expertise07:36 Apps and Platforms10:13 Subscription Monetization14:13 Who Plays These Games18:31 Democratic Game Ideation21:13 Greenlight to Launch Pipeline24:36 Testing Markets and Kill Rate26:00 Killing Prototypes Fast26:37 Morale With Low Hit Rates28:43 Testing Before Soft Launch29:19 KPIs And Portfolio Fit30:31 UA In Subscription Games36:46 Streaks And Crossplay Bonds39:14 AI Human Puzzles First46:32 What’s Next And Submissions48:17 Hiring And Tech Stack

  • July 3 · 1 hr 5 min

    TWIG #390: Destiny Ends, Xbox's Biggest Layoff Ever, and Google Play's New Fee Chaos

    Destiny is dead, Xbox is about to make the largest layoff in gaming history, and Google Play just completely changed how it charges developers.In this episode, we break down:• Why Sony's $3.6B Bungie acquisition was doomed from the start• What Destiny's gradual player decline actually looked like on the data• Where hundreds of laid-off Bungie developers go from here• Which five Xbox studios are being closed or sold• Why Xbox raising the Series X to $750 might be the final nail in the coffin• The unionization debate: is now the worst time to organize?• Google Play's new fee structure explained • Why Kress thinks Apple and Google wasted 20 years of developer goodwill• How a 2-person team sold 10 million copies of Mecha Chameleon in 16 days with zero marketing spend• Why the Adidas x Brawl Stars collab may have just hurt Supercell's brand• Ubisoft's surprising new hire from Amazon GamesCHAPTERS:00:00 Mobile Giants Rant00:16 Show Intro and Agenda02:39 Soccer Sidetrack04:03 Quick Shills and Corrections07:04 Sony Cuts Bungie13:15 Destiny Trends and Mobile15:37 Where Talent Goes Next17:25 Xbox Layoffs Rumors19:51 Strategy Behind Closures26:03 Unionization Debate29:51 Xbox Price Hike Fallout33:21 Console Pricing Speculation34:24 Switch Sales And Price Hikes36:09 Google Play Changes Breakdown38:53 New Vs Existing Install Fees40:33 Web Billing And Rankings41:18 Why So Complicated44:08 Level Up Program Requirements45:26 Sidekick Overlay And Data46:24 Rollout Dates And Reactions49:20 Stores Value And 30 Percent53:22 Steam Viral Hit Mecha Chameleon55:49 VC Project Financing Debate58:50 Ubisoft Hires Amazon Games GM01:00:18 Adidas Brawl Stars Marketing Lesson01:03:30 Wrap Up And Next Topics

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