When Agriculture Meets Energy
Millions of tonnes of cargo move across the world's oceans every day. On Current Intelligence, Signal Ocean AXS goes beyond the data to explain what those movements mean, why they matter, and what to watch next. In this episode, Maria Bertzeletou (Senior Market Analyst) is joined by Luke Nickels (Senior Commodity Analyst) to look at how two very different forces, geopolitics and weather, are converging on the world's food supply. They start with Q2 2026: soybean and corn shipments up around 15% year on year, while fertilizer volumes fell nearly 12% as Saudi exports roughly halved. From there, they trace the fertilizer shock back to the Arabian Gulf, where the Strait of Hormuz disruption has cut off close to a third of the world's urea exports, and explain why fertilizer, unlike oil, has no alternative route out. Then the conversation turns to El Niño, now officially developed and expected to strengthen through the rest of 2026, and what it could mean for wheat, rice, corn, soybeans, sugar and palm oil across different growing regions. Maria and Luke close with what this all means for freight: not fewer tonnes moving, but a possible reshuffling of origins, voyage lengths and vessel demand as the 2026-27 crop cycle unfolds. Missed Episode 1? Go back and listen, it's where the thread on the energy crisis and dry bulk begins.
- Transcript