Confluence Podcasts

Confluence Investment Management

Podcasts from Confluence Investment Management LLC, featuring the periodic Confluence of Ideas series, two bi-weekly series: the Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly and the Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report (new episodes posted on alternating Mondays), and a new monthly Q&A format called the Confluence Mailbag.

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English

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#334
Today · 13 min
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Euro vs. the Swiss Franc (10/19/26)
The US isn't the only market where bond yields are rising. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors should keep an eye on Europe where the euro has been under pressure.
- Transcript
#333
October 12 · 8 min
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The AI Buildout: Profits, Productivity, and the Risk of Overcapacity (10/12/2026)
Investors want to know who will be the ultimate winners from the AI build out. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss lessons from the internet bubble, which might give us some clues.
- Transcript
#332
October 5 · 12 min
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – What “Real” Interest Rates Are Telling Us (10/5/26)
Bond yields are a major focus for investors these days, but yields alone only tell part of the story. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez shares what real interest rates are telling us about the current state of the economy and how they figure into investment strategy.
- Transcript
#331
October 1 · 35 min
The Confluence Mailbag – Rising Rates, Endless War, and Where to Play Defense (10/1/26)
Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller return for another Confluence Mailbag episode to tackle listener questions on rising interest rates and the war in the Middle East. With no clear end in sight to the conflict, they examine elevated oil prices and the importance of energy diversification. They also consider how gold’s role as a portfolio hedge might be changing and, with the AI trade looking long in the tooth, share which defensive sectors look most attractive right now. Submit your question for a future episode to: mailbag@confluenceim.com.
- Transcript
#330
September 28 · 6 min
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of China's Energy Policy (9/28/2026)
Oil has been very much in the public eye with prices rising to over $100 a barrel, and there is currently no end in sight for the Iran war. Many analysts, though, were surprised that oil did not increase even more during the first six months of the war. The main reason appears to be the way China dramatically cut its imports of oil. Confluence Advisory Director Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss whether China is likely to continue this behavior and how investors might respond.
- Transcript
#329
September 21 · 5 min
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Breaking the Bond Fever! (9/21/26)
As of mid September, the US bond market seems to be immune to efforts by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to bring yields down. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss the current state of the bond market and how investors might respond.
- Transcript
#328
September 14 · 13 min
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – I Miss Recessions (9/14/2026)
Conservative investors, as a rule, construct their portfolios to, if not anticipate a recession, at least acknowledge the possibility of one. But in doing so, these investors may not fully participate in market rallies. But what if recessions are less common than they used to be? Are these conservative investors needlessly missing out? Confluence Chief Market Strategist, Patrick Fearon Hernandez, joins Phil Adler to address these questions and discuss the investment implications.
- Transcript
#327
August 17 · 13 min
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – China’s Threat to the AI Investment Boom (8/17/26)
Investors worried about a possible AI bubble can point to a number of reasons, including rising valuations and debt. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss another concern, China's threat to the AI investment boom.
- Transcript
#326
August 13 · 16 min
Confluence of Ideas – Reviewing the Asset Allocation Rebalance: Q3 2026
In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the third quarter of 2026, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.
- Transcript
#325
August 10 · 13 min
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Meet Andy Burnham (8/10/2026)
Great Britain's economic regression the past few years is notable and well documented. So is the long parade of failed prime ministers. Can the newest one make a difference in a way that will matter for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss what we can expect from new the UK prime minister, Andy Burnham.
- Transcript
#324
August 7 · 8 min
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The PCE Makeover (8/7/26)
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge is getting a makeover, and the result may please investors who would benefit from interest rate cuts, which is probably a majority of investors. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to look into how this change may play out for the markets.
- Transcript
#323
July 27 · 14 min
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Corporatist State and Its Investment Implications (7/27/2026)
Taking ownership stakes in key high-tech companies is only one way the federal government is exerting its influence on the economy. A whole new economic system appears to be emerging, one that Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez calls the corporatist state. Patrick joins Phil Adler to discuss this transition and why as an investment strategist he's taking notice.
- Transcript
#322
July 20 · 11 min
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – In Warsh, We Trust? (7/20/26)
Financial markets are always trying to anticipate what the Fed's next move may be. Making an accurate prediction may become more challenging under new Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss Warsh's strategy and how it might impact investors.
- Transcript
#321
July 13 · 13 min
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Dragon Boat Diplomacy: China’s Outreach to US Citizens (7/13/2026)
China's use of soft power to create a favorable public perception can reveal goals and tendencies useful for investors. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to share what he learned from a recent visit to the Chinese embassy in Washington.
- Transcript
#320
July 7 · 33 min
The Confluence Mailbag – No Solutions, Only Tradeoffs: Investor Self-Awareness, Oil's False Calm, and Fed Opacity (7/7/26)
Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller explore why investors should resist the temptation to abandon their core investment style during periods of market momentum. They unpack how oil prices surprisingly avoided a spike given recent events in the Strait of Hormuz, with a note of caution for future changes as the world adjusts. The conversation turns to Chair Warsh's first FOMC meeting and a likely shift toward reduced Fed transparency, closing with a look at the economic tradeoffs in today's world of no recessions and their long-term outlook for gold.
- Transcript
#319
June 29 · 20 min
Confluence of Ideas - The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook
In our latest episode, the Confluence Macroeconomic Team breaks down the six geopolitical trends that we believe will shape the international landscape in the second half of 2026. From the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the future of the dollar's reserve currency status, to the government's growing role in AI and the rise of quantum computing, the conversation covers the issues most likely to move markets in the months ahead.
- Transcript
#318
June 29 · 8 min
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Evolution of the Tech Life Cycle (6/29/26)
Today's tech giants are poised for a maturity shift over the coming years, transitioning from high growth companies into more established market leaders. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain why the technology companies of tomorrow may look like the utility companies of today.
- Transcript
#317
June 23 · 8 min
Confluence of Ideas – Deja vu for Dividends?
History is rhyming. The last time dividend stocks were this out of favor, the dot-com bubble was peaking. Portfolio Manager Tom Dugan joins Director of RIA Relationships Emily D'Agostino to discuss why that dynamic looks a lot like 1999, what the historical data says about what comes next, and why the Confluence IDEA strategy's quarter-century of consistent philosophy and construction may be precisely what this moment calls for. If history is any guide, patient investors may be about to be rewarded.
- Transcript
#316
June 15 · 10 min
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – China Cut Its Energy Imports (6/15/26)
There was a bit of welcome news for consumers as world oil prices were moderating in early June even though the Strait of Hormuz remained essentially closed. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to explain why and discuss whether this is just a short-term phenomenon.
- Transcript
#315
June 11 · 16 min
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Excess Capacity and Policy Change (6/11/2026)
One long trusted economic indicator may no longer reliably indicate a noninflationary environment. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how governments might be misled and what investors should watch for.
- Transcript

Showing 1–20 of 28 episodes