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Cheap Talk

Jeff Kaplow and Marcus Holmes

Cheap Talk is an every-week-or-so international relations podcast with Jeff Kaplow and Marcus Holmes, professors of government at William & Mary.

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21 episodes
weekly
Avg 56 min
English

Episodes 21

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S7 · E6
Saturday · 1 hr 4 min
Humans Make Mistakes Too
A big week for face-to-face diplomacy; the UN as a safe forum for high-level visits; the importance of side-meetings outside the General Assembly Hall; another Trump-Zelensky meeting; the logic of a post-election deal with Iran; China’s summit strategy; resolving the Greenland Crisis of 2025-2026; whether AI really almost caused a war with China; and Marcus supports hotline proliferation The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop. Please send us your questions or comments! Further Reading: Nicholas Wheeler and Marcus Holmes. 2026. “Trump and Xi face an AI security dilemma – but face‑to‑face diplomacy could be a start in mitigating it.” The Conversation, September 24. See all Cheap Talk episodes
S7 · E5
September 18 · 1 hr
The Lingo of Our AI Tech Overlords
The public debate over AI and the end of humanity; proposals to slow down AI development and improve safety; the challenges of coordinating domestically and internationally; normal accident theory and the nuclear safety analogy to AI; positive and negative controls and the always/never dilemma; predictions for the end of humanity; and Marcus wonders whether aliens have AI and how that went for them The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop. Please send us your questions or comments! Further Reading: Dario Amodei. 2026. “We Must Pace the Frontier.” See all Cheap Talk episodes
S7 · E4
September 14 · 51 min
Not Routine at All
The international security implications of the Hugging Face hack; rogue AI agents and cyberattack attribution; competing explanations for the CIA Director’s recent visit to Moscow; signaling to various audiences; worries about Russia expanding the Ukraine conflict into NATO; US domestic politics and the state of the Iran war; and Marcus has really enjoyed the US Open The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop. Please send us your questions or comments! See all Cheap Talk episodes
S7 · E3
September 5 · 48 min
This Could Result in an International Incident
The fascinating story of OpenAI’s rogue models and the HuggingFace hacking incident; turning a mirror on our humanity; the natural inclination to cooperate and communicate; models sacrificing themselves for the greater good; models cheating on their benchmarks and the temptation to cover their tracks; conspiracy theories and misinformation in the world of AI models; and Marcus is tempted to go into the app development space The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop. Please send us your questions or comments! See all Cheap Talk episodes
S7 · E2
August 30 · 47 min
Twice as Popular as Taylor Swift
Remembering Dolly Parton, global icon; US military capacity and the readiness costs of extended deployments in the Iran conflict; the US-Saudi Arabia nuclear cooperation agreement is submitted to Congress; developments in the trade war with Canada; spillover between economic statecraft and security policy; and Marcus thinks Jolene is a good tune The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop. Please send us your questions or comments! See all Cheap Talk episodes
S7 · E1
August 23 · 1 hr 1 min
All of This Has Been Done
Cheap Talk’s triumphant return for season 7: Our favorite international news stories of the summer; cutting short military exercises with South Korea; AI models hacking their way out of sandboxes; a new military alliance in the Gulf; the US/Saudi Arabia nuclear cooperation agreement; President Trump’s escape from Turkey in a catering truck; studying IR in turbulent times; and Marcus reminisces about going to Blockbuster Video The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop. Please send us your questions or comments! See all Cheap Talk episodes
S6 · E26
May 8 · 1 hr 2 min
Other Forms of Dust
Cheap Talk ends season 6 with listener questions: Control of the Strait of Hormuz; an arrest for trading on classified information on Polymarket; Thucydides and parallels to current US foreign policy; does face-to-face diplomacy build trust or generate more information; teaching tomorrow’s foreign policy leaders in the age of AI; did Hans Neimann cheat; dust as a metaphor in IR; and Marcus doesn’t see the resemblance We’ll be podcasting less regularly over the summer, but we’ll be back to our usual weekly schedule in the fall. In the meantime, please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop. Further Reading: Wesley Parnell. 2026. “Soldier Pleads Not Guilty in $400,000 Betting Case Over Maduro’s Ouster.” New York Times. Stewart Patrick. 2026. “The Warmongers Are Getting History All Wrong.” New York Times. See all Cheap Talk episodes
S6 · E25
April 24 · 1 hr 2 min
Waiting at the Airport
The current state of US-Iran negotiations (or lack thereof); escalation and mixed signal-sending in the Strait of Hormuz; multiple veto players on each side; Pakistan’s interesting role; the shadow of President Obama and the 2015 Iran Deal; and Marcus has never flown Spirit but has seen the Youtube videos The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop. Further Watching: Untold: Chess Mates on Netflix Queen of Chess on Netflix See all Cheap Talk episodes
S6 · E24
April 18 · 1 hr 3 min
It's Real and It's Dangerous
Excitement in the world of digital diplomacy; face-to-face diplomacy to end the Iran war; blockading Iran as a plan B and its prospects for success; Anthropic’s Mythos and AI that is too dangerous to release; the offense-defense balance in cyberspace; building AI for the public good; more capable models are more dangerous, even if they are well aligned; and Marcus can’t be bothered The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop. Further Viewing/Reading: Marine Traffic website Anthropic. 2026. System Card: Claude Mythos Preview. See all Cheap Talk episodes
S6 · E23
April 9 · 51 min
Something Revolutionarily Wonderful
Trump’s threats against Iranian civilization; nuclear threats and the risk of nuclear use in Iran; threatening war crimes is both bad and bad policy; the prospects for the ceasefire and remaining challenges to overcome; the diplomatic role of China and Pakistan; and Marcus feels like he’s in multiple worlds The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop. See all Cheap Talk episodes
S6 · E22
April 2 · 55 min
Seems Like a Bad Idea
How Russia benefits from the Iran war; President Trump’s recent statements about how the war is going; China is both helped by and hurt by the Iran war; prediction markets as an aggregation mechanism for the wisdom of crowds; insider trading and insider influence; the characteristics of wise crowds; and Marcus will never make that mistake again The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop. Further Reading: Will Oremus and Jeremy B. Merrill. 2026. “A journalist reported a missile strike. Then came the death threats.” Washington Post. See all Cheap Talk episodes
S6 · E21
March 26 · 55 min
15 Points of Agreement
Uncertainty about the state of US-Iran peace talks; the challenges of US military operations in the Strait of Hormuz; getting nuclear material out of Iran; whether the United States needs a negotiated settlement to end the war; and Marcus is afraid to put his mugs in the dishwasher The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop. Further Watching: International Institute for Strategic Studies Panel, “Securing the Strait of Hormuz in Wartime: Military Options and Strategic Challenges.”
S6 · E20
March 21 · 1 hr
Had You Asked Us, We Would Have Said No
Washington’s allergy to the “w”-word in describing the conflict in Iran; the Trump administration seems to have been caught off guard by some aspects of the conflict; what we have learned about the real drivers of the conflict; the extent to which the parties are achieving their strategic goals in the region; leadership assassinations and the quest for stability; calling on allies to help deal with the Strait of Hormuz; speculation about the timeline for an end to the war; and Marcus’ predictions were right, but came ten months late The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop. See all Cheap Talk episodes
S6 · E19
March 7 · 59 min
Analysts Are Fairly Skeptical
Failed diplomacy in the lead-up to the conflict; rationales for military action; windows of opportunity and the road to war; the prospects for regime change in Iran; the track record of strategic bombing campaigns; the economics of missile interceptors; what all this means for China and Russia; and Marcus wants to get some figures on the table The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. See all Cheap Talk episodes
S6 · E18
February 27 · 1 hr
Those Secret Words
The State of the Union foreign policy lightning round; the possibility of imminent war with Iran; confusing signals from the US; strategic clarity and the effectiveness of deterrent threats; the challenges of finding another Iran deal; tension between Anthropic and the Defense Department; hints of AI governance; and Marcus isn’t sure premium gas is worth it The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. See all Cheap Talk episodes
S6 · E17
February 21 · 52 min
Pro-Peace and Prosperity
The last remaining nuclear arms control treaty has expired; the beneficial side effects of arms control; the value of treaty-breaking as a low-cost signal in international relations; the decline of arms control as an international priority; China’s strategic calculus; whether verification is important in arms control treaties; arms control as a casualty of the war in Ukraine; planning our next move in a post-arms control world; and Marcus is a little naïve The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Get a Whoop: Chase Sapphire cardholders can get a free or discounted Whoop fitness band and Whoop Life subscription. Be sure to register for the discount first on the Chase website, then get an additional discount when you sign up with code B663EDA6. See all Cheap Talk episodes
S6 · E16
February 7 · 38 min
Learn to Code, Kids
Cheap Talk takes a break from IR to discuss vibe coding; the CheapTalkBot origin story; new opportunities to express creativity via vibe coding; mid-century modern architecture in Palm Springs; whether non-programmers can really do this; ChatGPT vs. Claude; context windows in AI tools; the use of AI for Retrieval Augmented Generation; and Marcus isn’t being creative enough The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Further Exploring: Check out Jeff’s Palm Springs Scavenger Hunt App See all Cheap Talk episodes
S6 · E15
February 1 · 43 min
It's Doomsday Day!
It is 85 seconds to midnight (according to the Doomsday Clock); evaluating the risk of catastrophe; the latest Board of Peace developments; another speech pointing to the end of the international system as we know it; what it means for Europe to take more responsibility for its own defense; and Marcus recalls World War II The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Further Listening/Reading: Cheap Talk Podcast. 2024. “Exercise in Optimism” (Jan. 27), via Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the web. Gabriel A. Almond and Stephen J. Genco. 1977. “Clouds, Clocks, and the Study of Politics.” World Politics 29(4): 489–522. See all Cheap Talk episodes
S6 · E14
January 25 · 57 min
Crazy Things in Foreign Policy
Cheap Talk returns from winter break to discuss the Venezuela situation; what is driving US Venezuela policy; implications of the US capture of Maduro; signaling US seriousness in international affairs; similarities between Venezuela and Greenland; IR theory in Canadian PM Carney’s Davos speech; and Marcus was, yet again, surprised by events The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. Further Watching: Special Address by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026 See all Cheap Talk episodes
S6 · E13
Dec 15, 2025 · 1 hr 9 min
Inherent Greatness and Decency
The degradation of the State Department’s official correspondence due to font choice; the Trump Administration releases its National Security Strategy; the return of spheres of influence and the primacy of the Western Hemisphere for US policy; the supposed decline of European civilization; the general problem with national security strategy documents; the glaring absence of the liberal international order in US strategy; and Marcus is generally confused about fonts Cheap Talk is taking a holiday break, but will be back with new episodes in January. Subscribe in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted. The opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary. Check out our online store at https://cheaptalk.shop. Further Reading: Michael Crowley and Hamed Aleaziz. 2025. “At State Dept., a Typeface Falls Victim in the War Against Woke.” New York Times. The White House. 2025. National Security Strategy of the United States. Emily Harding. 2025. “The National Security Strategy: The Good, the Not So Great, and the Alarm Bells.” Center for Strategic and International Studies. See all Cheap Talk episodes

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