Budget Watchdog All Federal

Punting on First Down

The House passes a CR with two months left on the clock. A punt is a concession you make when you've run out of downs. The House made this one on first down. With more than two months left in the fiscal year and none of the twelve appropriations bills finished, it passed a continuing resolution funding the government at fiscal year 2026 levels through December 4th, largely on party lines. Appropriations Chair Tom Cole calls the bill clean. Steve Ellis and TCS Director of Research and Policy Josh Sewell take that word apart. Clean means no partisan poison pills. It does not mean neutral. Extending the current base level for the Pentagon, for the Justice Department, for every agency, is a choice about priorities — just one nobody has to vote on. Then there's the White House anomalies list, transmitted before every CR. Some items are housekeeping: updating a program date, dropping funding for an inauguration three years away. Others are not. The list includes $1 billion to start building a Trump-class battleship whose design isn't finished — the same concurrent-design approach that produced an F-35 fleet fully mission capable about 30 percent of the time. It includes $3.2 billion in defense-wide procurement justified only by information available at a higher classification. And it would shield unobligated One Big Beautiful Bill Act funds from the standard 8 percent sequestration clawback, while the Pentagon sits on $89 billion of that money unspent and asks separately for $73 billion for the war with Iran. Steve and Josh also dig into Senate Majority Leader Thune's threat to fall back on reconciliation if Democrats won't deal, the Lankford-Hassan bill that would make automatic two-week CRs painful enough to keep members in town and working, and the record underneath all of it: Congress has finished all twelve appropriations bills on time four times in more than fifty years. The last was 1997.

How to Cut Half a Trillion Dollars from the Pentagon Budget

The Pentagon's FY2027 budget request comes in at $1.54 trillion — a 45% increase over current spending. TCS teamed up with the Project on Government Oversight (POGO) on a new report, How to Cut a Half a Trillion Dollars from the Pentagon Budget Request and Strengthen National Security, identifying nearly $500 billion in defensible cuts to acquisition programs. Gabe Murphy (TCS) is joined by POGO's Greg Williams and Virginia Burger to walk through the methodology and the specifics: munitions replenishment in the wake of Epic Fury, an F-35 procurement freeze tied to a 1-in-4 fleet readiness rate, the unproven sixth-generation fighter program, cost overruns on the Sentinel ICBM, redundant B-21 bomber spending, Ford-class carrier production issues, the newly proposed Trump-class battleship, Golden Dome missile defense, and Pentagon contractor subsidies. Full report and cut list at taxpayer.net.

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250 Years, 85% of the Debt in 25

America turns 250, and the fiscal ledger is sobering: $39.3 trillion in national debt — 85% of it accumulated in just the last 25 years. TCS President Steve Ellis and Director of Research & Policy Josh Sewell set aside the holiday Wastebasket they planned to write and instead take a hard look at how the republic arrived here. From the $430 million in daily debt averaged across 250 years, to $8 trillion in interest payments since 2010, to a new $88 billion emergency supplemental that stretches the definition of "emergency," Ellis and Sewell make the case that the nation's fiscal trajectory is a bipartisan problem requiring bipartisan solutions — and that the next 250 years depend on the choices made now.

Inside the NDAA Markup

The House Armed Services Committee spent all of Thursday, June 4th, marking up the National Defense Authorization Act, and what happened inside that room was anything but routine. TCS Policy Analyst Gabe Murphy was there for the debate, and he joins Steve Ellis to break down an unprecedented fight over the Pentagon's $1.14 trillion top line, a bipartisan push on military right to repair that actually passed by voice vote, and a series of amendments on Iran war funding that exposed just how politically charged this budget season has become.

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Repair Priorities 2026

America has spent $1.5 trillion on federal surface transportation since the early '90s. Roads and bridges: same condition as 2001. So where did the money go? Steve Ellis talks with Beth Osborne of Smart Growth America about Repair Priorities 2026, a new TCS-partnered report tracking how states actually spend federal highway dollars — and why expansion keeps winning over maintenance, no matter how much Congress appropriates. They cover the data gaps, the accountability failures, and a House committee's quiet vote against a basic "fix it first" requirement — all with the program's September reauthorization deadline approaching. The funding is close. The policy to use it right isn't.

100 Cents on the Dollar: National Debt Crosses a Historic Threshold

The U.S. economy grew at a solid 2% annual rate in the first quarter of 2026. So why is Taxpayers for Common Sense sounding the alarm? Because at the same moment, the national debt held by the public crossed 100% of GDP — a threshold once considered unthinkable. TCS President Steve Ellis and Director of Research and Policy Josh Sewell break down why good economic news and a historic debt milestone aren't reassuring — they're a warning. If we're running a $1.9 trillion deficit when times are good, what happens when they're not? Steve and Josh examine the structural drivers behind the debt, the systematic dismantling of every fiscal guardrail Congress has ever built, the misuse of budget reconciliation, and why Washington's political class — in both parties — keeps finding new ways to avoid the hardest decisions. This isn't a partisan story. It's an arithmetic one.

Drilling Won't Fix Gas Prices. Here's the Math.

Gas prices are above $4 a gallon. Crude oil is past $100 a barrel. And Washington is doing what Washington does — pointing to federal leasing as the fix. But is it? TCS President Steve Ellis sits down with TCS Vice President Autumn Hanna to break down exactly how global oil markets work, why a domestic leasing policy can't move a global price, and what the numbers actually say about royalty rates and pump prices. The math is precise, and the conclusion is clear: raising the royalty rate on new federal leases — from 12.5% to 16.67% — would have a maximum impact on pump prices of 6/100ths of a cent per gallon. That's less than a rounding error. Meanwhile, the US is already producing oil at record levels — 13.6 million barrels a day in 2025 — and Americans are still paying over $4 at the pump. The frustration is real. The straight answers are here.

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The President's FY2027 Budget Request

The president has released his fiscal year 2027 budget request — and buried inside the rhetoric about "historic paradigm shifts" and the end of "fiscal futility" is a $1.5 trillion Pentagon spending request. A 44% increase in a single year. And that's before the Iran War supplemental reportedly in the pipeline. TCS President Steve Ellis brings in national security analyst Gabe Murphy and Director of Research and Policy Josh Sewell to cut through the numbers: what the administration is actually proposing, what it would cost, and what it would mean for the programs everyday Americans depend on. The budget calls it discipline. Budget Watchdog AF is going to show you the math.

Flood Insurance Realities

Taxpayers for Common Sense doesn't just watch Congress — sometimes it sits at the witness table. Last week TCS President Steve Ellis testified before the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance on flood insurance, repetitive loss properties, and mitigation. With reauthorization of the National Flood Insurance Program on the horizon, we take you inside the hearing room to hear the case he made to lawmakers: the NFIP is $40 billion in the hole, we know which properties keep flooding, we know mitigation works, and the only thing missing is the will to act.

Iran, War Powers, and the Budget

Two weeks into the U.S. military campaign against Iran — launched without congressional authorization — the costs are staggering. Estimates put taxpayer exposure at up to $28 billion already, with no clear end in sight. TCS President Steve Ellis sits down with TCS policy analyst Gabe Murphy to break down what we know: the human toll, the daily cost of operations, the shifting justifications from the White House, and what Congress has — and hasn't — done about it. From the narrow defeat of War Powers resolutions in both chambers to the administration's reported request for $50 billion in supplemental war funding, Ellis and Murphy examine whether Congress still has the tools to reassert its constitutional war powers authority — and the political will to use them.

The Farm Bill Lives

While breaking news about U.S. military action against Iran dominates the headlines, a consequential piece of legislation quietly cleared a major hurdle in Washington. In the early morning hours of March 5th, after a 20-hour marathon markup session, the House Agriculture Committee voted 34-17 to advance the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 — dubbed "Farm Bill 2.0." With the priciest farm programs already locked in through last year's reconciliation bill, what's left may look slimmer on paper. But as TCS President Steve Ellis and Director of Research and Policy Josh Sewell break down, don't let the size fool you.

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Trump Tariff Takedown

In a historic 6-3 ruling the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump's sweeping global tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), holding that the Constitution's taxing power belongs squarely to Congress — not the executive branch. TCS President Steve Ellis and Director of Research and Policy Josh Sewell break down the ruling in real time. The court's majority, which included Trump appointees Gorsuch and Barrett alongside Chief Justice Roberts and the three liberal justices, found that Congress never authorized the president to levy tariffs under IEEPA — and that the word "tariff" doesn't even appear in the law. Steve and Josh trace TCS's position back to Liberation Day and the August tariff escalation episodes, where they argued that a tariff is a tax and that speculative tariff revenue could never be a reliable budget offset. Today's ruling validated that argument. But don't pop the champagne yet. Steve and Josh walk through what the ruling doesn't do: it doesn't end tariffs. The administration has already signaled it will pursue tariffs under other statutes — Section 232, Section 301, Section 122, and even the ghost of Smoot-Hawley. They also dig into the fiscal fallout: over $133 billion in tariff revenue collected under IEEPA may be subject to refunds, with potential losses of $1.5 trillion over the next decade. With a $38.6 trillion national debt and $1.8 trillion annual deficit, that's not a rounding error. The bottom line: Congress can no longer hide behind executive tariff revenue to paper over its fiscal failures. The court just slammed shut that escape hatch. Now it's time for Congress to do its job.

Why Golden Dome is Bad for American Taxpayers

TCS President Steve Ellis and Policy Analyst Gabe Murphy break down President Trump's Golden Dome missile defense program—an ambitious vision to shield the entire United States from nuclear attack. With potential costs ranging from $3.6 to $6 trillion and fundamental technical challenges that make near-perfect interception virtually impossible, Golden Dome represents fiscal irresponsibility on a massive scale. Congress has already approved over $24 billion without even seeing a basic architecture for how the system would work. We examine why hitting hundreds of nuclear warheads traveling at 15,600 mph is far more complex than Israel's Iron Dome, how nuclear explosions could blind the system's own radars, and why pursuing this program could trigger a dangerous new arms race in space while undermining arms control efforts. Bottom line: if it doesn't work, don't fund it.

Short Shutdown

Congress faces a partial government shutdown at midnight over Department of Homeland Security funding—but the border enforcement operations at the center of the fight will continue largely uninterrupted. Last summer's reconciliation bill locked in $170 billion for immigration enforcement through 2029, sitting outside the annual appropriations process. This means agencies like FEMA, TSA, and the Coast Guard could shut down while ICE operations continue with their massive funding increase. TCS Director of Research Josh Sewell joins Steve Ellis to break down how Congress gave up the power of the purse, why this shutdown is different from previous ones, and what taxpayers need to understand about budget gimmicks that prioritize political expediency over fiscal accountability.

Pentagon Plus-Up: Trump's $1.5 Trillion Defense Proposal

Just when you thought Pentagon spending couldn't get more out of control, President Trump proposes a 50% budget increase in one year—rocketing Defense spending from $901 billion to $1.5 trillion. That's $500 billion more... and tariffs won't cover it. On Budget Watchdog All Federal, host Steve Ellis and TCS policy analyst Gabe Murphy break down why this "dream military" proposal is fiscal madness, explore a new executive order targeting defense contractor stock buybacks, and examine why Congress should have a say before military action in Venezuela costs taxpayers even more. The first episode of 2026 pulls no punches on defending your tax dollars.

Inside the $12 Billion Farm Bailout

The Trump administration has announced a $12 billion agricultural bailout package as trade wars squeeze American farmers—a familiar scenario from the first Trump administration. TCS Director of Research and Policy Josh Sewell joins host Steve Ellis to break down the "Farmers to Family Bridge Aid" package, examining who receives payments, what's actually in the relief, and whether a one-time check provides real certainty.

FEMA Reform: Billion-Dollar Disasters and the Push for Taxpayer Protection

With nearly 30 billion-dollar extreme weather events in 2024 alone, disaster costs are spiraling out of control—and Congress is finally taking action. Steve Ellis sits down with TCS Director of Research Josh Sewell and Policy Analyst Tyler Work to examine the FEMA Act of 2025, bipartisan legislation that could modernize America's approach to disaster preparedness and response. They explore what the bill gets right—from elevating FEMA back to cabinet-level status to expanding mitigation funding—and where critical gaps remain. The conversation covers transparency reforms, the need for smarter rebuilding standards, the importance of front-end investment over back-end bailouts, and why federal disaster programs must stop subsidizing development in high-risk zones. At stake: whether reform delivers real resilience or just repeats costly mistakes.

Half a Billion and Counting: The Hidden Cost of National Guard Deployments

Nearly half a billion dollars spent, families separated over the holidays, small businesses operating short-staffed, and violent crime was already declining. TCS Policy Analyst Gabe Murphy breaks down the mounting taxpayer costs of National Guard deployments to Los Angeles, DC, Chicago, Portland, and Memphis, explaining why these expensive missions are a solution in search of a problem. From the unprecedented legal battles over the Posse Comitatus Act to the economic ripple effects on Guard members' civilian employers, this episode reveals what taxpayers are really paying for when federal troops patrol American cities. With deployments extended through at least February and no end in sight, the price keeps climbing while troops miss training, lose time with loved ones, and stand guard against an emergency that doesn't exist.

Shutdown Postmortem

After 43 days, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has ended. But at what cost? Steve Ellis and Josh Sewell break down the $60 billion price tag taxpayers absorbed for absolutely nothing. Beyond the waste, the Trump administration used the shutdown to expand executive control over federal spending, bypassing Congress to reallocate funds and lay off thousands of workers. The compromise bill may have reversed those moves, but it revealed a dangerous willingness to ignore constitutional spending authority. With another shutdown deadline looming on January 30th and Congress punting on actual appropriations bills, the fiscal dysfunction continues. No victories here—just billions wasted and constitutional concerns that should alarm every taxpayer.

The Antideficiency Act, Explained

In the midst of a full government shutdown, the Trump administration has taken an unprecedented step: firing thousands of federal workers while government funding remains frozen. The problem? This might violate the Anti-Deficiency Act, a law on the books since 1884 that prevents the government from spending money it doesn't have. TCS President Steve Ellis and Director of Research and Policy Josh Sewell break down why conducting reductions-in-force during a shutdown—which trigger severance payments, administrative costs, and legal battles—could be illegal, and why shifting Pentagon funds to pay military salaries sets a dangerous precedent. Whether you think the federal workforce needs trimming or not, the Constitution is clear: Congress controls the purse strings, not the President, and taxpayers shouldn't foot the bill for costly legal battles over executive overreach.

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