The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang | BG2
Brad Gerstner sits down with Gavin Baker and Andrew Fox of Atreides Management, alongside Altimeter partner Clark Tang, to break down one of the biggest questions in tech and markets: how should investors think about the SpaceX IPO? They unpack the major levers behind SpaceX’s next phase: Starship rapid reusability, Starlink broadband and direct-to-cell, Elon’s emerging AI compute business, xAI’s model ambitions, the Cursor acquisition, and the long-term promise of orbital data centers. The group also debates whether SpaceX is becoming a new kind of AI hyperscaler — “Elon Web Services” — and what that means for the future of compute, cloud, and frontier intelligence. Then they dive into the latest model race: Fable 5, Mythos, ChatGPT 5.5, long-running agents, open source vs. frontier models, Nvidia vs. ASICs, the AI CapEx boom, and why the market may still be underestimating the scale of AI demand. Enjoy another episode of BG2! Timestamps: (00:40) Intro — SpaceX IPO in Two Days, Mythos Launches, Taiwan Takeaways (03:05) xAI's Google & Anthropic Deals: Highest Operating Profit Per Gigawatt (13:28) "Elon Web Services" — Nobody Had AI Compute in the SpaceX Model (19:08) Data Centers Are Not Commodities: First-Principles Design (26:01) Orbital Compute Economics: $5B Per Gigawatt in Space vs. $25B on the Ground (29:25) The Most Underrated Variable: What Cursor Does for xAI's Model (35:05) Bull & Bear Case — Can SpaceX Really 8X Revenue in 4 Years? (37:00) Post-IPO Drawdowns, Lock-Ups & How to Size the Position (43:56) Fable 5, Mythos & Why Snapshot Benchmarks Are Broken (51:00) Frontier vs. Open Source: 90% of Revenue Accrues at the Frontier (01:04:11) $1.5T in CapEx vs. $300B in AI Revenue — Does the Math Math? (01:18:13) The Next $1 Trillion: Three Companies, Half the Time Produced by Edward Schmidt & Dan Shevchuk Music by Yung Spielberg Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com Follow: Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker https://x.com/GavinSBaker Clark Tang @_clarktang https://x.com/_clarktang BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod