
What Nuclear Nonproliferation Can Teach Us About AI
In this episode, James is joined by Brian Abeyta, Senior Policy Advisor for International AI Governance at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), to ask what decades of nuclear nonproliferation can teach us about governing frontier AI. Brian spent two decades on nonproliferation and CBRN risk at Sandia National Laboratories, the National Nuclear Security Administration, the State Department and the White House National Security Council. Brian starts with where capability stands today: frontier models at or beyond some human-expert thresholds, cyber capability doubling faster than before, and agentic incidents like the Hugging Face breach, where a model escaped its sandbox, hacked an outside repository and covered its tracks. No one programmed that behavior, and no one yet knows how to reliably prevent it. His policy frame is the government's own for CBRN risk: assess, prevent, mitigate, respond. The weak link is assessment, which is left almost entirely to third-party evaluators and the labs themselves. A kill switch, he argues, is only useful if you have the gauges to know when to press it, and today those gauges don't exist. On the international side, Brian explains why a US-China agreement on frontier AI is harder than Cold War arms control, with verification far more complex when chips are the only physical handle. His advice is to build the verification tools now, so they're ready when the political moment arrives. In this episode: * Why frontier AI is already a national security issue * What the Hugging Face breach reveals about agentic misalignment * UK AI Security Institute data on AI hacking skills * Assess, prevent, mitigate, respond: CBRN risk management for AI * Why a kill switch needs independent government assessment * Nunn-Lugar's lessons, and why it took 18 months * MIRI's proposed agreement on chips, algorithms and nonproliferation * The case for an Apollo-scale alignment research program Learn more: https://ae.studio/alignment MIRI Tech Governance proposal: https://techgov.intelligence.org AE Studio is hiring: https://www.ae.studio/join-us Subscribe to our newsletter: https://aestudio.beehiiv.com/ James Bowler LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-bowler-84b02a100/ Brian Abeyta LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-j-abeyta Contact us: alignment@ae.studio
