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"5 to 10% is going to cause immense damage. When cash flows stop at the margin, everything collapses because of leverage."
Nik Bhatia returns to break down the macro landscape as war in Iran sends oil to $100, the dollar surges, and volatility clouds the outlook.
Nik explains why he's wiped the slate clean on his macro thesis, why the US economy may still avoid recession despite the chaos, and how the Genius Act could reshape the global dollar system through stablecoins.
We also get into AI job displacement, why treasuries are still the bedrock of global finance, Bitcoin's decoupling signal, and whether the four-year cycle is finally dead.
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- 0:00What Would Cause a Recession Now?
- 1:23Reassessing the Macro Picture
- 2:50Oil Price as a Key Economic Signal
- 14:08Addressing the Dual Public Good
- 20:00US Economy and Fiscal Deficit
- 25:16The Impact of AI on the Labor Market
- 38:52Transfer Payments and Government Spending
- 41:30The Importance of Treasuries
- 52:03Strengthening the Treasury Market With Stablecoins
- 56:40Reasserting Governance With Stablecoins
- 1:08:58US Soft and Hard Power
- 1:16:50Is the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Over?
- 1:18:51What Will the New Fed Chairman Do?
- 1:23:35The Bitcoin Layer