UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Precious opinions'

Iran’s missile strikes against US Gulf military bases pushed oil prices modestly higher. It is a reminder of the challenge for investors—Iranians are clearly setting the agenda in the Gulf war, and investors do not know how to analyze the motives of the Iranian military. This constrains investors’ ability to price in plausible scenarios, and leaves little other than the default optimism bias to influence markets.