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虚实之间True Imagination · Today · 1 hr 15 min

E123 预测市场2：当一切都成为赌注

当预测市场不断壮大，我们是否会“达则对赌天下，穷亦难独善其身”？选举、战争乃至一条新闻，都能成为下注的标的；没有参与交易的人，也可能被卷入他人的赌局。这期，我们再谈预测市场，追问它如何改变人的立场、公共生活，乃至它正在预测的现实。当关心变成仓位，我们是在预测未来，还是在制造未来？ 本期主播： 活在当下、老饕 剪辑： 曾谙 本期内容： 05:33 现实事件如何成为交易合约 07:43 剪辑师也能成为“内幕人士” 13:56 一条报道引来的死亡威胁 21:57 让纠错变得有利可图 30:35 群体智慧、资金优势与愿望式思维 35:47 激励机制对人的筛选与塑造 41:36 当世界变成老虎机：下注循环与立场极化 45:54 当关心变成仓位，公共生活会怎样改变？ 53:48 反身性：预测的自我实现和落空 59:39 当赔率进入新闻 62:31 操纵如何成为可能 65:16 为权力直接报价 相关往期节目： 《E054 Polymarket：预测美国大选、颠覆传统博彩的新玩法？》 《E094 恶人经济学：当作恶比守法更“划算”》 本期音乐： Monomer - Instrumental version --- Leroy Wild Skylines - No Backing Vocals --- The North 本期参考资料： Taleb, N. N. (2018). Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life. Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC). Gambling on Democracy. Kalshi. Two Insider Cases We've Recently Closed. 2026-02-25 Fabian, E. Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don't rewrite an Iran missile story. The Times of Israel, 2026-03-16 Berg, J. E., Nelson, F. D., & Rietz, T. A. (2008). Prediction market accuracy in the long run. International Journal of Forecasting, 24(2), 285–300 ACDC. A Handful of Bettors Are Setting the Odds on the 2026 Midterms. 2026-08-17 Seybert, N., & Bloomfield, R. (2009). Contagion of Wishful Thinking in Markets. Management Science, 55(5), 738–751 Hanson, R., & Oprea, R. (2009). A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy. Economica, 76(302), 304–314 The Wall Street Journal. How the Trump Whale and Prediction Markets Beat the Pollsters in 2024. 2024-11-15 Morewedge, C. K., Tang, S., & Larrick, R. P. (2018). Betting Your Favorite to Win: Costly Reluctance to Hedge Desired Outcomes. Management Science, 64(3), 997–1014 Schüll, N. D. (2012). Addiction by Design: Machine Gambling in Las Vegas. Princeton University Press Hirschman, A. O. (1977). The Passions and the Interests: Political Arguments for Capitalism before Its Triumph. Princeton University Press Zelizer, V. A. (1979; 2017 再版). Morals and Markets: The Development of Life Insurance in the United States. Columbia University Press Sandel, M. J. (2012). What Money Can't Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets. Farrar, Straus and Giroux Soros, G. (2013). Fallibility, reflexivity, and the human uncertainty principle. Journal of Economic Methodology, 20(4), 309–329 MacKenzie, D. (2006). An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets. MIT Press Kalshi. CNBC and Kalshi announce exclusive partnership. 2025-12-04 欢迎点击以下小组件，查看购书链接，并在更多平台与我们互动！ 在小宇宙查看该单集文稿

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当预测市场不断壮大，我们是否会“达则对赌天下，穷亦难独善其身”？选举、战争乃至一条新闻，都能成为下注的标的；没有参与交易的人，也可能被卷入他人的赌局。这期，我们再谈预测市场，追问它如何改变人的立场、公共生活，乃至它正在预测的现实。当关心变成仓位，我们是在预测未来，还是在制造未来？

本期主播：

活在当下、老饕

剪辑：

曾谙

本期内容：

05:33 现实事件如何成为交易合约

07:43 剪辑师也能成为“内幕人士”

13:56 一条报道引来的死亡威胁

21:57 让纠错变得有利可图

30:35 群体智慧、资金优势与愿望式思维

35:47 激励机制对人的筛选与塑造

41:36 当世界变成老虎机：下注循环与立场极化

45:54 当关心变成仓位，公共生活会怎样改变？

53:48 反身性：预测的自我实现和落空

59:39 当赔率进入新闻

62:31 操纵如何成为可能

65:16 为权力直接报价

相关往期节目：

《E054 Polymarket：预测美国大选、颠覆传统博彩的新玩法？》

《E094 恶人经济学：当作恶比守法更“划算”》

本期音乐：

Monomer - Instrumental version --- Leroy Wild

Skylines - No Backing Vocals --- The North

本期参考资料：

Taleb, N. N. (2018). Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life.

Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC). Gambling on Democracy.

Kalshi. Two Insider Cases We've Recently Closed. 2026-02-25

Fabian, E. Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don't rewrite an Iran missile story. The Times of Israel, 2026-03-16

Berg, J. E., Nelson, F. D., & Rietz, T. A. (2008). Prediction market accuracy in the long run. International Journal of Forecasting, 24(2), 285–300

ACDC. A Handful of Bettors Are Setting the Odds on the 2026 Midterms. 2026-08-17

Seybert, N., & Bloomfield, R. (2009). Contagion of Wishful Thinking in Markets. Management Science, 55(5), 738–751

Hanson, R., & Oprea, R. (2009). A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy. Economica, 76(302), 304–314

The Wall Street Journal. How the Trump Whale and Prediction Markets Beat the Pollsters in 2024. 2024-11-15

Morewedge, C. K., Tang, S., & Larrick, R. P. (2018). Betting Your Favorite to Win: Costly Reluctance to Hedge Desired Outcomes. Management Science, 64(3), 997–1014

Schüll, N. D. (2012). Addiction by Design: Machine Gambling in Las Vegas. Princeton University Press

Hirschman, A. O. (1977). The Passions and the Interests: Political Arguments for Capitalism before Its Triumph. Princeton University Press

Zelizer, V. A. (1979; 2017 再版). Morals and Markets: The Development of Life Insurance in the United States. Columbia University Press

Sandel, M. J. (2012). What Money Can't Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets. Farrar, Straus and Giroux

Soros, G. (2013). Fallibility, reflexivity, and the human uncertainty principle. Journal of Economic Methodology, 20(4), 309–329

MacKenzie, D. (2006). An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets. MIT Press

Kalshi. CNBC and Kalshi announce exclusive partnership. 2025-12-04

欢迎点击以下小组件，查看购书链接，并在更多平台与我们互动！


在小宇宙查看该单集文稿
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