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The Team House · July 20 · 1 hr 13 min

This is What Losing Looks Like (Iran War Update) | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

This week we break down the collapsed ceasefire and week two of American strikes on Iran, from the deaths of US service members in Jordan to the Chinese navigation system suddenly making Iranian missiles far more accurate. We get into why the air campaign can't achieve its goals, the intelligence gaps limiting US targeting, Saudi Arabia's controversial nuclear agreement, and the vulnerability of Gulf desalination plants. The uncomfortable conclusion: Iran is going to get the bomb, ground troops aren't a real option, and this is now entirely about the Strait of Hormuz. Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Subscribe to our newsletter!!!! https://teamhousepodcast.kit.com/join Jack's news outlet:⬇️ https://thehighside.substack.com/ Find Jon Hackett here:⬇️ Jon's Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett Jon's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett Jon's books: https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B0C5L659N5?ccs_id=e11a2062-f8d3-498e-bfd7-7d2f3869caf6 Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett Check out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCd0Hq6QFk8CoTu5j-VU0Ong Find Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ Lobo Institute ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ Twitter ⬇️ https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ Whitefish security summit ⬇️ https://whitefishsecuritysummit.com Find Marc P here: https://x.com/Mpolymer Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 Substack ⬇️ https://amilburn.substack.com/ Andy’s book ⬇️ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations "Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio" 00:00 Start 02:47 Why the air campaign strategy isn't working 05:03 Iranian missiles are suddenly hitting: the China GPS factor 08:04 High-value assets at risk and why Hormuz is the real objective 10:07 Targeting explained: why bridges, bases, and tit-for-tat strikes 12:30 The Jordan strike, American deaths, and the coming US response 14:49 Intel limits: what we can't hit and why 17:15 Holding back cyber: saving the exquisite tools 20:47 Stuxnet blowback and how Iran built its cyber capability 22:57 Escalation options: Pickaxe Mountain, the Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb 26:36 Saudi Arabia's balancing act and the 123 nuclear agreement 29:57 "Iran will get the bomb" — accepting the new red line 39:11 Mick Mulroy joins: who's feeding Iran targeting data 41:19 Desalination plants as targets and the Gulf's water vulnerability 50:50 What are our actual options? 53:45 The ground troops question: a Vietnam-like commitment 59:44 Israeli and US elections could reset everything 01:03:28 Hezbollah vs. the Iraqi militias — the real threat 01:07:13 Criticism, hate mail, and wrap-up Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support.

0:00-1:13:23

transcript

No transcript — this publisher did not publish one.

show notes

This week we break down the collapsed ceasefire and week two of American strikes on Iran, from the deaths of US service members in Jordan to the Chinese navigation system suddenly making Iranian missiles far more accurate. We get into why the air campaign can't achieve its goals, the intelligence gaps limiting US targeting, Saudi Arabia's controversial nuclear agreement, and the vulnerability of Gulf desalination plants. The uncomfortable conclusion: Iran is going to get the bomb, ground troops aren't a real option, and this is now entirely about the Strait of Hormuz.
Support the show on Patreon:⬇️
https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse
Subscribe to our newsletter!!!!
https://teamhousepodcast.kit.com/join
Jack's news outlet:⬇️
https://thehighside.substack.com/
Find Jon Hackett here:⬇️
Jon's Twitter:
https://x.com/jonathanhackett
Jon's LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett
Jon's books:
https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B0C5L659N5?ccs_id=e11a2062-f8d3-498e-bfd7-7d2f3869caf6
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett
Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett
Check out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️
Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475
Spotify:
https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQ
Youtube:
https://www.youtube.com/@UCd0Hq6QFk8CoTu5j-VU0Ong 
Find Mick Mulroy here: 
Fogbow ⬇️
https://fogbow.com/
Lobo Institute ⬇️
https://www.loboinstitute.org/
Twitter ⬇️
https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA
LinkedIn ⬇️
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/
Whitefish security summit ⬇️
https://whitefishsecuritysummit.com
Find Marc P here:
https://x.com/Mpolymer
Find Andy Milburn here: 
Twitter ⬇️
https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8
LinkedIn ⬇️
https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023
Substack ⬇️
https://amilburn.substack.com/
Andy’s book ⬇️
https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations
"Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio"
00:00 Start
02:47 Why the air campaign strategy isn't working
05:03 Iranian missiles are suddenly hitting: the China GPS factor
08:04 High-value assets at risk and why Hormuz is the real objective
10:07 Targeting explained: why bridges, bases, and tit-for-tat strikes
12:30 The Jordan strike, American deaths, and the coming US response
14:49 Intel limits: what we can't hit and why
17:15 Holding back cyber: saving the exquisite tools
20:47 Stuxnet blowback and how Iran built its cyber capability
22:57 Escalation options: Pickaxe Mountain, the Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb
26:36 Saudi Arabia's balancing act and the 123 nuclear agreement
29:57 "Iran will get the bomb" — accepting the new red line
39:11 Mick Mulroy joins: who's feeding Iran targeting data
41:19 Desalination plants as targets and the Gulf's water vulnerability
50:50 What are our actual options?
53:45 The ground troops question: a Vietnam-like commitment
59:44 Israeli and US elections could reset everything
01:03:28 Hezbollah vs. the Iraqi militias — the real threat
01:07:13 Criticism, hate mail, and wrap-up

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support.
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