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The Team House · June 22 · 1 hr 16 min

Iran’s Trump Card: Hormuz | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

We break down the Iran MOU, the fight over the Strait of Hormuz, Lebanon’s role in the deal, and why the panel sees the agreement as a major strategic win for Tehran and a serious problem for Washington. We also dig into Iran’s nuclear program, Hezbollah, U.S. military messaging, bad battle-damage assessments, and whether the United States still has any real leverage left in the next 60 days of negotiations. GhostBed ⬇️ https://www.ghostbed.com/team FOR 10% off! Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Marc's new article: https://engelsbergideas.com/author/sam-worby-marc-polymeropoulos/ Subscribe to our newsletter!!!! https://teamhousepodcast.kit.com/join Jack's news outlet:⬇️ https://thehighside.substack.com/ Find Jon Hackett here:⬇️ Jon's Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett Jon's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett Jon's books: https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B0C5L659N5?ccs_id=e11a2062-f8d3-498e-bfd7-7d2f3869caf6 Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett Check out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCd0Hq6QFk8CoTu5j-VU0Ong Find Mick Mulroy here: Fogbow ⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ Lobo Institute ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ Twitter ⬇️ https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social Mick’s publications ⬇️ https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/ Whitefish security summit ⬇️ https://whitefishsecuritysummit.com Find Marc P here: https://x.com/Mpolymer Find Andy Milburn here: Twitter ⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 Substack ⬇️ https://amilburn.substack.com/ Andy’s book ⬇️ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social Find Jason Lyons here: LinkedIn ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?u Bluesky ⬇️ https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social "Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio 00:00 — Start 03:26 — Iran’s Strategy After the MOU 09:16 — Iran’s Resistance Economy and Regime Survival 14:42 — The Art of a Bad Deal 19:56 — The Missing NSC Process 24:49 — Proxies, Ballistic Missiles, and the JCPOA Problem 31:42 — Verification, HEU, and the Lebanon Fuse 36:42 — Pentagon “Happy Math” and Bad BDA 48:12 — A Possible Clandestine Nuclear Program 54:50 — Iranian Leadership Splits and the Search for Moderates 01:01:11 — Can the Strait of Hormuz Be Reopened by Force? 01:07:23 — CENTCOM, Military Advice, and Strategic Failure Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support.

0:00-1:16:07

transcript

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show notes

We break down the Iran MOU, the fight over the Strait of Hormuz, Lebanon’s role in the deal, and why the panel sees the agreement as a major strategic win for Tehran and a serious problem for Washington.
We also dig into Iran’s nuclear program, Hezbollah, U.S. military messaging, bad battle-damage assessments, and whether the United States still has any real leverage left in the next 60 days of negotiations.
GhostBed ⬇️
https://www.ghostbed.com/team
FOR 10% off! 
Support the show on Patreon:⬇️
https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse
Marc's new article:
https://engelsbergideas.com/author/sam-worby-marc-polymeropoulos/
Subscribe to our newsletter!!!!
https://teamhousepodcast.kit.com/join
Jack's news outlet:⬇️
https://thehighside.substack.com/
Find Jon Hackett here:⬇️
Jon's Twitter:
https://x.com/jonathanhackett
Jon's LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett
Jon's books:
https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B0C5L659N5?ccs_id=e11a2062-f8d3-498e-bfd7-7d2f3869caf6
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett
Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett
Check out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️
Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475
Spotify:
https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQ
Youtube:
https://www.youtube.com/@UCd0Hq6QFk8CoTu5j-VU0Ong 
Find Mick Mulroy here: 
Fogbow ⬇️
https://fogbow.com/
Lobo Institute ⬇️
https://www.loboinstitute.org/
Twitter ⬇️
https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA
LinkedIn ⬇️
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/
Bluesky ⬇️
https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social
Mick’s publications ⬇️
https://www.loboinstitute.org/publications/publications-of-michael-mick-patrick-mulroy/
Whitefish security summit ⬇️
https://whitefishsecuritysummit.com
Find Marc P here:
https://x.com/Mpolymer
Find Andy Milburn here: 
Twitter ⬇️
https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8
LinkedIn ⬇️
https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023
Substack ⬇️
https://amilburn.substack.com/
Andy’s book ⬇️
https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations
Bluesky ⬇️
https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social
Find Jason Lyons here: 
LinkedIn ⬇️
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?u
Bluesky ⬇️
https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social
"Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio
00:00 — Start
03:26 — Iran’s Strategy After the MOU
09:16 — Iran’s Resistance Economy and Regime Survival
14:42 — The Art of a Bad Deal
19:56 — The Missing NSC Process
24:49 — Proxies, Ballistic Missiles, and the JCPOA Problem
31:42 — Verification, HEU, and the Lebanon Fuse
36:42 — Pentagon “Happy Math” and Bad BDA
48:12 — A Possible Clandestine Nuclear Program
54:50 — Iranian Leadership Splits and the Search for Moderates
01:01:11 — Can the Strait of Hormuz Be Reopened by Force?
01:07:23 — CENTCOM, Military Advice, and Strategic Failure

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-team-house--5960890/support.
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