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The Risky Planner™ · March 19 · 57 min

The Iran War, Oil Shocks, and What Capital Project Sponsors Should Do Right Now

Send us Fan Mail The Strait of Hormuz lost 95% of its traffic in a single week. Oil prices hit $120. Aluminium, urea, LNG, and petrochemical feedstocks are all disrupted simultaneously. Force majeure declarations are cascading from Gulf producers. Nate and Albert break down what the Iran war means for capital project portfolios. They cover the 90 to 180 day procurement lag before repriced commodities hit project budgets, why standard risk registers fail during cascading disruptions, how force majeure propagates through contracting chains, and the three-bucket framework for portfolio triage: accelerate insulated projects, shutter projects that no longer pencil, and replan everything else from the ground up. The estimate from six weeks ago is no longer valid. The market you return to after pausing is not the market you left. Topics covered: 00:00 Introduction and indigenous consultation in Canadian capital projects 11:55 Episode start: the Iran war and capital project risk 16:20 The Strait of Hormuz closure and first decisions for project sponsors 17:30 Enterprise risk vs. project risk: who owns geopolitical disruption 25:44 The 90 to 180 day procurement lag and real cost impact timeline 26:13 Fertilizer, aluminium, and LNG disruptions beyond oil 33:37 Cascading system failures: shipping, energy, water infrastructure 39:50 Force majeure, claims processes, and war profiteering risk 45:49 The wait-and-see trap: why pausing is not a neutral decision 50:51 Interest rates, stagflation, and the financing squeeze 55:04 Albert's one piece of advice: accelerate, shutter, replan Moose Hide Campaign: https://moosehidecampaign.ca/ Listener survey: https://forms.office.com/r/KFCi9aiENH Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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Send us Fan Mail

The Strait of Hormuz lost 95% of its traffic in a single week. Oil prices hit $120. Aluminium, urea, LNG, and petrochemical feedstocks are all disrupted simultaneously. Force majeure declarations are cascading from Gulf producers.

Nate and Albert break down what the Iran war means for capital project portfolios. They cover the 90 to 180 day procurement lag before repriced commodities hit project budgets, why standard risk registers fail during cascading disruptions, how force majeure propagates through contracting chains, and the three-bucket framework for portfolio triage: accelerate insulated projects, shutter projects that no longer pencil, and replan everything else from the ground up.

The estimate from six weeks ago is no longer valid. The market you return to after pausing is not the market you left.

Topics covered:
00:00 Introduction and indigenous consultation in Canadian capital projects
11:55 Episode start: the Iran war and capital project risk
16:20 The Strait of Hormuz closure and first decisions for project sponsors
17:30 Enterprise risk vs. project risk: who owns geopolitical disruption
25:44 The 90 to 180 day procurement lag and real cost impact timeline
26:13 Fertilizer, aluminium, and LNG disruptions beyond oil
33:37 Cascading system failures: shipping, energy, water infrastructure
39:50 Force majeure, claims processes, and war profiteering risk
45:49 The wait-and-see trap: why pausing is not a neutral decision
50:51 Interest rates, stagflation, and the financing squeeze
55:04 Albert's one piece of advice: accelerate, shutter, replan

Moose Hide Campaign: https://moosehidecampaign.ca/

Listener survey: https://forms.office.com/r/KFCi9aiENH



Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com

The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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