The Geopolitical Shock Playbook (Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley) | #623

Watch on YouTube. My guest today is Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer.

In today’s episode, Mike Wilson explains how a rolling recession has given way to a staggered recovery, and why he expects leadership to broaden beyond mega-cap stocks into small caps, cyclicals, and international markets. He highlights growing risks from AI disruption, private credit weakness, and the Iran conflict.

To close, Mike discusses a shift beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio toward a more flexible 60/20/20 approach that includes assets like gold.

(0:00) Starts

(1:31) Mike Wilson on rolling recessions and rolling recoveries

(5:28) Market implications of Iran conflict

(9:52) Market cap weight vs. equal weight indices

(15:41) Thoughts on the Fed

(20:01) Is 60/20/20 the new 60/40?

(23:23) Geopolitical shocks

(35:48) AI's impact and bullish on healthcare

(42:03) Outlook for global economic recovery

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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. 

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

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