200 Years of Markets in 60 Minutes (Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid) | #618

Today’s guest is Jim Reid, Global Head of Macro Research at Deutsche Bank.

In today’s episode, Jim walks through lessons from his annual report, The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing, which covers over 200 years of market data from 56 countries. He explains why cash is one of the riskiest long-term assets, how inflation quietly destroys wealth, and why valuation is the single most reliable predictor of long-term returns. He also discusses how fiat money has reshaped bonds, gold, and equities since 1971. 

To close, Jim reminds us that history consistently rewards investors who buy cheap, diversify globally, and respect long-term market cycles.

(0:00) Starts

(1:54) Importance of real vs nominal returns

(5:36) Historical returns of gold

(8:28) Global investment opportunities

(18:06) Bond market performance and growth's impact on asset prices

(23:11) Potential impact of AI

(30:34) Valuation importance

(37:03) Index weighting strategies

(42:43) Predictors of bond performance and equity return distribution

(47:01) Historical periods of high valuations

(52:45) Global banking and stock market performance

(55:12) Impact of AI on economics

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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. 

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

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