Positive Thinking: Conditional Probability, Bayes' Theorem, and the Base-Rate Fallacy

Jun 29, 2022 · 24 min · Season 1 · Episode 6 · 11.9 MB

0:00-24:53

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In this episode, Noah's certain that he has a disease because he tested positive on a test that's 99% accurate. Does that mean he almost certainly has the disease? Pete's not so sure, and brings up a statistics concept to help shed some light on the numbers.

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